Coach Adam Simpson Megathread est. 2017 - Staying for 2024, Lyon’s Cryin’

[Miguel Sanchez]

Chris Scott made some well publicised comments recently about the toll on mental health for head coaches. He's not under pressure for his job at the moment. I was in no way saying that he is about to give up his job.

Rhyce Shaw quit because the mental heath demands of the role was too much.

In both cases, there is an argument to be said that there comes a point where taking on the job is not worth the money on offer.

Sure, but how many examples are there of coaches (particularly ones with big juicy contracts) deciding that the job is not worth the money?

Shaw - who didn’t last a season.

And?

 

[Rowan18]

Ok, we sack Simmo immediately.

Can you tell us how a 3 year payment of around a million dollars per year, plus paying for a new coach will affect our soft cap?

I'm really interested to know.

I worked this out in another thread:

• The AFL actually doesn't have a firm number for the tax - Hawthorn are the first club who are going to breach the soft cap (by paying out Clarko) and they are currently negotiating the rate. An article I read suggested it is a 75% tax but Hawks might get it down to 30-50% (classic VFL)
• Simmo's salary is essentially lost, as you have to pay a new coach, so we will assume that he gets paid $3M and it is all above the soft cap
• You then pay 75% tax: $2.25M
• So all up you lose approx $5M

That's a lot of cash, but our club has the cash reserves to pay it. What is interesting is that we also have a very large membership base, that will almost certainly drop off a bit if our team is doing badly and affect revenue. Could we get to a point where paying out a dud coach is worth it if it means more members hang around? The season members won't really change, as the waitlist crew would take their spots (if many even leave), so it is a question of how much waitlist revenue you lose vs what you pay to sack the coach. Assuming ITW is $60 per year and we lost 20K members - that is $1.2M pa of revenue right there.

Commercially, I think Simmo definitely gets another year, and he probably deserves the chance to re-set over the off season anyway. After 2022, the payout is only $2M plus $1.5M tax, so $3.5M to sack him at end of 2022 vs getting rid of him this year for $5M.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

R

Too late. We began driving towards it in 2019, when we capitulated in our final home game for the season against a team that didn't even make the 8. That cost us top 4 and any hope of going all the way.

In 2020 we behaved like petulant children in the hub, resulting in a dismal win loss record. When the players decided to actually try again, the damage was already done. Once again, top 4 was lost and we were bundled out of finals in the first week. Once again, lapses in effort throughout the season cost us any hope of a flag. We were slightly closer to the proverbial cliff, but alarm bells were not ringing yet. It was a COVID year after all and the players had been through a lot. At least that is what we told ourselves.

In 2021, there was optimism. We started the season in so-so form but then went on a promising run, culminating in an epic win against who we thought was a fellow premiership rival. We had a favourable run home and a host of premiership heroes were returning. A top 4 charge appeared to be our destiny. We had steered the car away from the cliff and back towards the mountain.

After the Richmond win, we fitted the car with nitrous oxide, performed a u-turn and accelerated towards the cliff at breakneck speed. The screams of warning from the fans were ignored. The coach, doubling down on his failing game plan and selections, stamped down on the accelerator even harder. In the blink of an eye, the cliff's edge had been cleared and the car was in freefall. Any hope of playing finals was gone.

The cliff has already been cleared. The only question is, how long will this freefall last?

Round 1, 2019, unfurling the premiership flag, belted by Brisbane 102 v 58.

Round 5 v Port in the rain at home, flogged 95 v 53

Round 6 Geelong, flogged 104 v 46.

There were at of closes games then sprinkled after that and those scores don't tell the true story of turning it on for one quarter and getting over the line.

The 'picking and choosing' when we feel like it started very early in 19.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

The thing with Sheed, and it's a 'pile on at the moment, and I've been watching him for a few months:

He is slow in speed and reaction. He is good at what he does (bar tackling and defensive traits). In the ball ups, opposition sweat on him hard and niggle him, as he can be very damaging. Easy to niggle him though as he's slow.

Under pressure he is poor as he is slow of mind.

Ideally he's the outlet at the back of a pack, the old quarterback or Chad fletcher

Chad Fletcher

Age

45

Ht

179cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.6

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

9.1

5star

M

4.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

No current season stats available

D

15.2

4star

K

10.0

4star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

1.2

3star

role where he has more time for that win up kick.

Give him time and he will cut the opposition up.

A no 1, 2 or 3 midfielder, he is not though.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

So what's the pass mark for Simmo in 2022?

I don't think it's necessarily wins and losses or finals. For me its:

Selecting players on merit and not credits in the bank.
A clear transition of the squad to newer players and building for the future.
No more land of the giants in the F50.
Gameplan change, contested football and making tackles stick.
Harmony in the club and players.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

So what's the pass mark for Simmo in 2022?

I don't think it's necessarily wins and losses or finals. For me its:

Selecting players on merit and not credits in the bank.
A clear transition of the squad to newer players and building for the future.
No more land of the giants in the F50.
Gameplan change, contested football and making tackles stick.
Harmony in the club and players.

We won’t really be able to decide until we see what the club is looking to do with the list.
We know we will draft but will we look to improve our draft position?
If Hurn and JK play on then I would think they are thinking one last crack at a flag.
Does Simmo want to have one more crack at it? Or does he want to get on with the rebuild now?

If it looks to me like they are trying to snatch another flag then a pass mark must be Preliminary final at the least.

Lots of questions yet before predictions. I have been informed that Nisbett has been sitting in on everything Footy for the last few weeks. The club will clearly be reviewing things.

 

[woosha24]

So what's the pass mark for Simmo in 2022?

I don't think it's necessarily wins and losses or finals. For me its:

Selecting players on merit and not credits in the bank.
A clear transition of the squad to newer players and building for the future.
No more land of the giants in the F50.
Gameplan change, contested football and making tackles stick.
Harmony in the club and players.

Pass mark just for Simmo? For mine:

* Rotates the guys nearing retirement out of the side more frequently but strategically (ie: not all at once). Gives their spots to the kids for 2-3 games at a time.
* Changes to the gameplan are visible onfield. Doesnt necessarily have to equate to more wins, but a pivot away from our coveted "guarding grass" strategy must be seen
* Side works on fitness + contested possession/ tackling in the offseason, with the aim to lift ourselves to midtable in these stats

Thats it for me, really. Simple, concise, identifiable metrics.

 

[Guest1]

I worked this out in another thread:

• The AFL actually doesn't have a firm number for the tax - Hawthorn are the first club who are going to breach the soft cap (by paying out Clarko) and they are currently negotiating the rate. An article I read suggested it is a 75% tax but Hawks might get it down to 30-50% (classic VFL)
• Simmo's salary is essentially lost, as you have to pay a new coach, so we will assume that he gets paid $3M and it is all above the soft cap
• You then pay 75% tax: $2.25M
• So all up you lose approx $5M

That's a lot of cash, but our club has the cash reserves to pay it. What is interesting is that we also have a very large membership base, that will almost certainly drop off a bit if our team is doing badly and affect revenue. Could we get to a point where paying out a dud coach is worth it if it means more members hang around? The season members won't really change, as the waitlist crew would take their spots (if many even leave), so it is a question of how much waitlist revenue you lose vs what you pay to sack the coach. Assuming ITW is $60 per year and we lost 20K members - that is $1.2M pa of revenue right there.

Commercially, I think Simmo definitely gets another year, and he probably deserves the chance to re-set over the off season anyway. After 2022, the payout is only $2M plus $1.5M tax, so $3.5M to sack him at end of 2022 vs getting rid of him this year for $5M.

Thank you, that's a comment that's pretty thought provoking.

Your calculations don't include the money gained by sponsorships though. Do you have any idea how that might impact on annual finances?

Looking at this, 5m is certainly a psychological barrier that'll be hard to cross.

 

[random260]

So what's the pass mark for Simmo in 2022?

I don't think it's necessarily wins and losses or finals. For me its:

Selecting players on merit and not credits in the bank.
A clear transition of the squad to newer players and building for the future.
No more land of the giants in the F50.
Gameplan change, contested football and making tackles stick.
Harmony in the club and players.

Tanking. I would happy if we fall bottom 4 so we start rebuild. Anything but bottom 4 does no hope for our rebuilding don't want to be finishing 9-12 for 4 years.
Finishing 9-12 just shows out of touch we are with our ability

 

[Bender_]

Sack everyone, chuck an ad in the local rag.

Problem solved!

 

[Byron_Clanger]

R

Round 1, 2019, unfurling the premiership flag, belted by Brisbane 102 v 58.

Round 5 v Port in the rain at home, flogged 95 v 53

Round 6 Geelong, flogged 104 v 46.

There were at of closes games then sprinkled after that and those scores don't tell the true story of turning it on for one quarter and getting over the line.

The 'picking and choosing' when we feel like it started very early in 19.

I've said a couple times already this year. Winning the flag was the best worst thing to happen to these guys. No more hunger.

 

[Goosecat]

I worked this out in another thread:

• The AFL actually doesn't have a firm number for the tax - Hawthorn are the first club who are going to breach the soft cap (by paying out Clarko) and they are currently negotiating the rate. An article I read suggested it is a 75% tax but Hawks might get it down to 30-50% (classic VFL)
• Simmo's salary is essentially lost, as you have to pay a new coach, so we will assume that he gets paid $3M and it is all above the soft cap
• You then pay 75% tax: $2.25M
• So all up you lose approx $5M

That's a lot of cash, but our club has the cash reserves to pay it. What is interesting is that we also have a very large membership base, that will almost certainly drop off a bit if our team is doing badly and affect revenue. Could we get to a point where paying out a dud coach is worth it if it means more members hang around? The season members won't really change, as the waitlist crew would take their spots (if many even leave), so it is a question of how much waitlist revenue you lose vs what you pay to sack the coach. Assuming ITW is $60 per year and we lost 20K members - that is $1.2M pa of revenue right there.

Commercially, I think Simmo definitely gets another year, and he probably deserves the chance to re-set over the off season anyway. After 2022, the payout is only $2M plus $1.5M tax, so $3.5M to sack him at end of 2022 vs getting rid of him this year for $5M.

I'm not advocating for or against but I don't believe any early termination would involve a full 3 year payout. There will be an early termination clause in the contract and whilst we can't know those details, it wont include full payment of all remaining years.
In truth I lean in the basket of it being a bit too radical and unsettling right now to be a positive. Call me delusional, but this list is capable of much, much more. I really hope he works it out.

 

[Rowan18]

Thank you, that's a comment that's pretty thought provoking.

Your calculations don't include the money gained by sponsorships though. Do you have any idea how that might impact on annual finances?

Looking at this, 5m is certainly a psychological barrier that'll be hard to cross.

Thanks. I have no idea about sponsors but that is a good question. I remember hearing a rumour that part of why Judge was sacked was the fear of sponsors and members going to Freo if they got Woosha and overtook us on the ladder

 

[Rowan18]

I'm not advocating for or against but I don't believe any early termination would involve a full 3 year payout. There will be an early termination clause in the contract and whilst we can't know those details, it wont include full payment of all remaining years.
In truth I lean in the basket of it being a bit too radical and unsettling right now to be a positive. Call me delusional, but this list is capable of much, much more. I really hope he works it out.

Good point, I thought that might be the case, but I've never seen a coaches contract. Even if there wasn't, there would undoubtedly be a settlement which would acknowledge Simmo's ability to earn by getting a new job. The media said that's what North did with Brad Scott - any new salary was taken out of the settlement.

I agree that Simmo stays. I've been pissed at him big time and called for him to be sacked, but looking at it rationally, of course he gets another year. I also think the core of our list is solid, if he can get most of the AA players back into best form, then he has a top 4 team right there.

 

[eagles rule]

I played with some of the very first Eagles. They were hard campaigners who knew how to tackle.

The deterioration in the tackling ability and technique of our playing list over the years is alarming. I've seen amateur footballers who are tougher tacklers.

they tackled to hurt/slow players down back in the day ..

 

[Goosecat]

they tackled to hurt/slow players down back in the day ..

Ah those were the days, one of my favourite parts of the game. Hurt them so they don't get back up, if you're good at it, a crunching tackle into the turf or landing full weight on top as you roll them (it's not new), or my personal favourite, slinging to the ground or into other players, especially on wet days. Of course I understand completely why that had to change but geeze I loved that part of it.

 

[Broken_Chairs]

A lot of throwing the baby out with the bathwater happening right now.

I don't think it's so dire. We have a good list and should be vying for top 4.

Players are under performing and we've been dishing up garbage - whether that's through shitty gameplan, poor coaching, confidence, fitness, injury or a combination of all that is what they need to figure out and rectify.

Overhauling the gameplan, getting players to buy in and going hard in the draft should be priorities.

 

[Monocle]

Players are under performing and we've been dishing up garbage - whether that's through shitty gameplan, poor coaching, confidence, fitness, injury or a combination of all that is what they need to figure out and rectify.

Trouble is that we have been waiting three years now for it to rectify and them to figure out ............... it hasn't and they haven't.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

Trouble is that we have been waiting three years now for it to rectify and them to figure out ............... it hasn't and they haven't.

You are a very calm and knowledgeable poster.

I sense you are at your wits ends as well.

 

[Broken_Chairs]

Trouble is that we have been waiting three years now for it to rectify and them to figure out ............... it hasn't and they haven't.

Post-bye this year has been particularly jarring - I don't think I've seen a team capitulate so embarrassingly.

We were about the mark 2019-2020, as frustrating as our final campaigns were, you can see how they could be mistaken to think tinkering around the edges might be enough to get us to another premiership.

I have hope a thorough review will help facilitate some much needed change around the club and get us back into contention next year.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Sack Simmo just before the plane lands for maximum effect, maybe have a banner on the tarmac or something.

Webster made caretaker with immediate effect.

Profit.

 

[Guest1]

I have hope a thorough review will help facilitate some much needed change around the club and get us back into contention next year.

Quite a few posters here reckon that there is too much required to change to challenge for success again. So much so that the debate now is whether a better coach/football department staff are required to create the improvement. Just look at a few of the posts on this page and tell me that these can be fixed over the course of one pre-season?

 

[garlic munchers]

The thing with Sheed, and it's a 'pile on at the moment, and I've been watching him for a few months:

He is slow in speed and reaction. He is good at what he does (bar tackling and defensive traits). In the ball ups, opposition sweat on him hard and niggle him, as he can be very damaging. Easy to niggle him though as he's slow.

Under pressure he is poor as he is slow of mind.

Ideally he's the outlet at the back of a pack, the old quarterback or Chad fletcher role where he has more time for that win up kick.

Give him time and he will cut the opposition up.

A no 1, 2 or 3 midfielder, he is not though.

Needs more Matt Barber.

 

[Broken_Chairs]

Quite a few posters here reckon that there is too much required to change to challenge for success again. So much so that the debate now is whether a better coach/football department staff are required to create the improvement. Just look at a few of the posts on this page and tell me that these can be fixed over the course of one pre-season?

I'll remind you that very similar things were being said in 2014 and 2017.

I just think that we largely have the cattle to compete next year. If we draft well, reinvent our gameplan and can get the players to buy into it, there's absolutely no reason why this list of players shouldn't be vying for a top 4 spot.

Also, when I say I think a review is needed to facilitate much needed change that doesn't mean I don't think changes are needed to the coaching/football department. I don't think we've navigated the COVID cuts/cost saving situation particularly well, we've lost a lot of talented assistants and I think it's necessary for us reassess how we're spending our resources. Simmo won't be going anywhere, not this season at least, but I'd like to see us target some highly rated assistant coaches for sure.

 

[greatwhiteshark]

I'll remind you that very similar things were being said in 2014 and 2017.

I just think that we largely have the cattle to compete next year. If we draft well, reinvent our gameplan and can get the players to buy into it, there's absolutely no reason why this list of players shouldn't be vying for a top 4 spot.

Also, when I say I think a review is needed to facilitate much needed change that doesn't mean I don't think changes are needed to the coaching/football department. I don't think we've navigated the COVID cuts/cost saving situation particularly well, we've lost a lot of talented assistants and I think it's necessary for us reassess how we're spending our resources. Simmo won't be going anywhere, not this season at least, but I'd like to see us target some highly rated assistant coaches for sure.

Our draft will have zero impact on what happens the next few years. The drafted players will be playing WAFL. So unless we trade in which we won’t be we have the same lists this year playing next year pending retirements.
Reinventing the game plan and an attitude change can happen that’s for sure , but it will be the same players.