Opinion AFC - Time Capsule - 2016 (AFC SUPPORTERS ONLY)

[Niximus]

Welcome to the AFC Time Capsule for 2016.

I thought it'd be fun to be able to look back on a snapshot of opinions and thoughts of the board from various points in the club's history.

The plan is to create one of these threads each year. Everyone please make no more than one post, if there are things you'd like to add to your post, you can edit it. Please do not reply to other posts either, this isn't a thread for discussion (until it is re-opened).

I'll leave the thread open for some period of time and lock it near the end of the year, or when it's not getting posted on anymore. Then it'll be sealed away for some period of time (I'm thinking maybe at set intervals, say 5 years, 10 years), re-opened, and we can see how opinions changed, predictions developed etc.

Some ideas for comments.
Our season 2016, highs/lows?
Our new recruits, future stars?
Where do you see the AFC sitting when we revisit this thread? (You can edit in comments post draft)

I have included a poll about where you see the AFC challenging for a flag over the next 10 years, you can select multiple responses so pick as many or as few as you like.

This thread, including the poll is for AFC supporters only.

 

[GreyCrow]

I will edit this after the Draft

2016 High beating the Draw. Many said we would struggle the 1st 8 weeks and it was a much better performance than expected. Set us up for the finish

2016 Low not taking advantage of that and finishing in the Top 4

Hope I am still alive when the thread is re-opened

 

[Scorpus]

Here's my current thoughts:

• Not trading two first round picks for Bryce Gibbs was the right move as the two draftees will be better for us
• Trading Lyons for pick 43 was a mistake and will work against us
• Scott Thompson should have retired at the end of 2015
• David Mackay is terrible and should be delisted immediately. His remaining games for the club will be plentiful and mediocre
• Our 2016 trade period was an embarrassing shambles complete with mixed messaging and a hugely disappointing outcome. We completely blew the opportunity to strengthen our midfield and I believe it will hurt our flag changes
• The appointment of Burton to replace Noble is odd and indicates that no-one wanted to come here
• Not picking up Barlow as a delisted free agent was the right move
• No one will miss Ricky Henderson
• Cam Ellis-Yolmen will not develop into a best 22 player for us
• In 2016 we blew a massive chance for a flag by performing abysmally against West Coast at home
• Our list is strong for the most part and our forward line will continue to dominate. Eddie Betts has more years in him than most guys his age.
• Mitch McGovern will quickly become an elite player and a draft steal
• Wayne Milera will develop into a far better player than David Mackay and an elite outside midfielder
• Tom Doedee will have a better AFL career than Ryan Burton despite the outrage at his selection

 

[Barneythecrab]

Crows will go backwards in ladder position in 2017 as our young midfield settles. Upward bound from 2018 onwards.

Wigg will be a star midfielder.

Dear will replace Jenkins and become our best forward sometime in the next 2 years.

Lever will leave to Vicco land.

Hartigan to continue his upward projection of ability.

First of 3 priemeirships begins in 2019 with Sloane as our captain.

 

[Maggsy]

2017 premiership is on... I see big steps forward for Milera, Wigg, Gore, Doedee + Hampton this year,. then add in the depth of Greenwood, Beech, Keath and whoever else we draft this year WE are on the doorstep.. we had a ridiculously tough draw last year,. this year, this is not the case.. I am predicting us to win 17-19 games in 2017 before finals.. Top 4 finish - start getting excited my fellow crows fans

 

[conVINCEd]

We will rue failing to strengthen our midfield as Sydney/Dogs/Giants/Eagles mids steamroll us in the second week of the finals.

Gibbs develops a back-related hamstring injury (no tears show up despite many scans but y'know, it hurts and stuff) in the second half of the season, barely playing a game before being traded to the Crows at the end of 2017 for a first rounder and Jake Kelly.

Campo and Clarke are moved on as coaches before being replaced by VB and Scott Thompson

 

[Danger in Texas]

This post will be edited after the draft.

• Considering the profile of our list, we performed just as expected in 2016. We will plateau in 2017 as we give games to a bunch of up and comers, then will go bang in 2018 and 2019.
• Our 2016 offseason has been somewhat dubious overall. We have said we would improve our midfield, but we have not done so. This will haunt us in 2017, but not in the future.
• Not getting Gibbs for that particular price was the right move. It didn't matter whether we got Barlow or not (would have been nice, but wouldn't have been the difference maker towards a 2017 premiership).
• Greenwood, Doedee, Knight and Milera will all get games in 2017, but won't have that much of an impact. All four will break out in 2018.
• Atkins will lift his disposal count in 2017 in an Andrew Gaff-like role, and will really start to become noticed around the comp.
• Hampton, CEY and Wigg will not make it.
• Dear will move to Victoria after receiving sporadic opportunity, even though he will have showed a lot of promise.
• Tom Doedee will play 250 games for the club in an Easton Wood/Corey Enright-like role. Will be considered a master stroke by Ogilvie.
• On that subject, Hamish Ogilvie is the best head recruiter in the land, and will be the benchmark of talent identification in 5 years.
• Taylor Walker will captain the club until he's 30, to allow Jake Lever to take over.
• Charlie Cameron will be an AA wingman, as will Milera.
• Scott Thompson should have retired this year, and the club will realise that early next year
• Jordan Gallucci will become an important cog in the Crows' best 22, as will Myles Poholke.
• Don Pyke, if and when he gains more wisdom and coaching nous, will take us to the promised land.

 

[Geoffa32]

I look forward to bumping all the negativity around here in 2018 when Tex lifts the Premiership Cup.....

Sent from my HTC_0P6B6 using Tapatalk

 

[Rotayjay]

My 2016 highlights:
- Being the leaders in attacking football
- Seeing the great potential in Wayne Milera
- Sloaney takes his game to another level
- We finish 5th in a year many pundits said we'd miss the eight due to the draw and Judas of Flogs Creek's departure
- Beating Sydney at AO. Hoodoo broken; booed $kirt Tippett; great play by Tex to seal the game.
- Beating GWS, who were the form team at the time
- Beating West Coast at Subiaco in that remarkable comeback. The first time any side has held West Coast scoreless for a quarter at Subiaco
- Burying the poo like a cat in Showdown 40.

My 2016 lowlights:
- Being systematically picked apart by Geelong (who'd just pinched our best player) twice
- Losing our nerve against Hawthorn at the MCG
- Troy Pannell's umpiring during the Bulldogs game
- Various spuds get games despite contrbuting little
- Breaking news! Crows shit bed against West Coast at Adelaide Oval! No Sloane, no Crows! Top 4 spot in jeopardy!
- Collingwood looks set to grant us our 'get out of jail' card after all. But Fitzpatrick kicks an arsey goal to put Hawthorn into the top 4 at our expense. Rotayjay, watching this unfold on TV, laughs loudly. 'Typical, typical Crows luck,' he says. 'We're getting exactly what we deserve.'
- The finals campaign that I found really hard to get excited about ends when Adelaide get smashed by Sydney in the semi-final, after Josh Jenkins openly admitted that he was about to play injured in a final.
- The club re-signs Thommo. It is sad that I'm classifying it as a lowlight, but in context it was a symbol that nothing looks like truly changing at the AFC. The coaches are still rigidly and robotically sticking with experienced players who are cooked or contributing little. Premiership-winning clubs are ruthless. Adelaide is not ruthless
- The ONE YEAR when a good midfielder, someone we desperately need, wants to come to Adelaide ... we couldn't get him. I commend the AFC for not selling the farm, but I admonish them for not having a plan B and letting Lyons go for ****-all
- And after our midfield is clearly shown to be far off the standard required to win a flag, people within the club say that we will back in our current players and systems, and rely on organic growth

I do not feel this club is moving in quite the right direction. We need a big injection of ruthlessness, daring and creativity like Blight provided.

There is a worrying trend back towards mediocrity, lack of risk-taking in coaching and outright cowardice in selections. Additionally, I'm worried that the boys club attitude is alive and well. No changes in the coaches box for 2017 and no improvement to the midfield (which is the thing that lets us down most). Jacobs seemingly in decline. Eddie closer to retirement.

I think we might be in a position to contend in 2018, but I cringe at the idea of constantly shifting the goalposts. 'We'll contend in 2018 ... no, we'll contend in 2019 ... no, we'll contend in 2020 ... ah, shit. Now we need to rebuild ...'

Sitting here in late 2016, I believe that Sydney, Western Sydney and the Bulldogs will be strong for several years. I think that the probability of us winning a flag before 2023 is appreciable but not very high, and I bloody well hope that the Crows prove me wrong.

 

[Huntercrow]

After the turmoil of last season perhaps we needed to pull back a bit to catch our breath this year.
We appointed a calm and calculating head coach as more of a father figure to the squad rather than a shock and awe personality that may not have been the right fit considering the ltragic loss of our head coach.
We also needed stability within the club so I think Pykes appointment and his philosophy of "keeping it simple" was the priority for 2016.

Looking ahead I think as Pyke masters his coaching technique we may see a more forcefull approach to "getting back to business". I'm expecting Pyke to demand more from the first 22.

This would have a flow on affect to the reserves with more unforced movement between the 2 teams.

I think pre season will be huge for Thomo. He will hit the track hard and if his aging bones can take the extra stress he should be in for round 1. I expect him to play well in the early season with a plan to manage him during mid season and our bye rounds could refresh for another assault later in the season. A fit and firing Thomo would be huge asset to our aspirations. But it must not be at the expense of an up and comer stuck in the reserves.

The big improvers barring injury will be likes of Menzel, Knights, Beech, Hampton, Doedee, Dear and Hunter.

O'brien to play Several games against lesser midfields while Sauce is managed. Hunter to excell in the ressies in Obriens absence.

Another huge season for our forward line with Tex free from injury leading the goal kicking just short of a ton.

Talia and Laird to become excellent rebounders under Pods direction.

Sloane to take it up another notch and show the competition who is the premier mid in the comp.

By years end we will look back to the Gibbs trade and thank our lucky stars we kept our pick 13 whom will debut
By round 5.

Off course while some of the above is wishful thinking I predict with complete confidence whomever we select at pick 43 will always be compared to Jarryd Lyons and his career at the Suns.

 

[mattymac]

By seriously challenge for a premiership I assume that means at least make a Grand Final.

In that case I can't see it happening in any of those years. 2017-2018 was my hope but we needed to improve this off season.

Unfortunately we fell asleep at the wheel. Actually came out worse than we went in, losing a good midfielder from an extremely shallow midfield for peanuts and replacing one of the most prized football OMs in the league with a fitness guy.

The whole upside of replacing Noble was to go external and bring in someone from outside the comfort zone with fresh ideas and less boys club. All we've done is lose his experience and go more boys club.

Our midfield is in no state to challenge seriously nor can I see the talent coming through there raving their peak physical strength in their late 20s while Sloane and our spine are still in top form.

Our midfield and spine won't coincide due to poor list management. They will be ships passing in the night.

Losing Dangerfield, not planning to proactively phase out Thommo years ago and not luring a replacement for either has done us in.

Our recruiting has been very good in terms of strike rate but has neglected our midfield due to our best available policy. We have invested too many resources into defence because defenders are usually the best available at picks in the low-mid teens. We are like a car with a great differential and rear suspension but the engine is too underpowered to exploit it.

Also after some considerable hopes were raised when Roo came on board and during the all too brief Walsh era, it became clear in 2016 that nothing has been done to remedy our two main disabilities as a club:

-our boys club culture which stifles progress by continually promoting from within and thus limiting our access to new ideas and different ways of thinking and doing things, and

-our soft DNA in big finals.

I expect us to make 2 or 3 prelims in that time and generally finish between 5th and 12th. In the early 2020s when our once in a generation forward line is gone we will hover around 8th.

 

[GreyCrow]

I look forward to bumping all the negativity around here in 2018 when Tex lifts the Premiership Cup.....

Sent from my HTC_0P6B6 using Tapatalk

hmm

 

[GreyCrow]

Some good , some bad some close. Still a long way to go.

 

[Pea Nut]

Great bump. Always interesting to read years later. Some surprisingly good predictions mixed in with some terrible ones.

 

[John Who]

Great bump. Always interesting to read years later. Some surprisingly good predictions mixed in with some terrible ones.

This is usually how predictions work.

 

[Scorpus]

• Not trading two first round picks for Bryce Gibbs was the right move as the two draftees will be better for us
• Trading Lyons for pick 43 was a mistake and will work against us
• Scott Thompson should have retired at the end of 2015
• David Mackay is terrible and should be delisted immediately. His remaining games for the club will be plentiful and mediocre
• Our 2016 trade period was an embarrassing shambles complete with mixed messaging and a hugely disappointing outcome. We completely blew the opportunity to strengthen our midfield and I believe it will hurt our flag changes
• The appointment of Burton to replace Noble is odd and indicates that no-one wanted to come here
• Not picking up Barlow as a delisted free agent was the right move
• No one will miss Ricky Henderson
• Cam Ellis-Yolmen will not develop into a best 22 player for us
• In 2016 we blew a massive chance for a flag by performing abysmally against West Coast at home
• Our list is strong for the most part and our forward line will continue to dominate. Eddie Betts has more years in him than most guys his age.
• Mitch McGovern will quickly become an elite player and a draft steal
• Wayne Milera will develop into a far better player than David Mackay and an elite outside midfielder
• Tom Doedee will have a better AFL career than Ryan Burton despite the outrage at his selection

Looking good so far

 

[Elite Crow]

• Not trading two first round picks for Bryce Gibbs was the right move as the two draftees will be better for us
• Trading Lyons for pick 43 was a mistake and will work against us
• Scott Thompson should have retired at the end of 2015
• David Mackay is terrible and should be delisted immediately. His remaining games for the club will be plentiful and mediocre
• Our 2016 trade period was an embarrassing shambles complete with mixed messaging and a hugely disappointing outcome. We completely blew the opportunity to strengthen our midfield and I believe it will hurt our flag changes
• The appointment of Burton to replace Noble is odd and indicates that no-one wanted to come here
• Not picking up Barlow as a delisted free agent was the right move
• No one will miss Ricky Henderson
• Cam Ellis-Yolmen will not develop into a best 22 player for us
• In 2016 we blew a massive chance for a flag by performing abysmally against West Coast at home
• Our list is strong for the most part and our forward line will continue to dominate. Eddie Betts has more years in him than most guys his age.
• Mitch McGovern will quickly become an elite player and a draft steal
• Wayne Milera will develop into a far better player than David Mackay and an elite outside midfielder
• Tom Doedee will have a better AFL career than Ryan Burton despite the outrage at his selection

Looking good so far

Nice work, why couldn’t you predict Burton was going to take us on a camp with nutters and put a stop to it?

 

[Geoffa32]

hmm

2019 lol

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Mego Red]

• Not trading two first round picks for Bryce Gibbs was the right move as the two draftees will be better for us
• Trading Lyons for pick 43 was a mistake and will work against us
• Scott Thompson should have retired at the end of 2015
• David Mackay is terrible and should be delisted immediately. His remaining games for the club will be plentiful and mediocre
• Our 2016 trade period was an embarrassing shambles complete with mixed messaging and a hugely disappointing outcome. We completely blew the opportunity to strengthen our midfield and I believe it will hurt our flag changes
• The appointment of Burton to replace Noble is odd and indicates that no-one wanted to come here
• Not picking up Barlow as a delisted free agent was the right move
• No one will miss Ricky Henderson
• Cam Ellis-Yolmen will not develop into a best 22 player for us
• In 2016 we blew a massive chance for a flag by performing abysmally against West Coast at home
• Our list is strong for the most part and our forward line will continue to dominate. Eddie Betts has more years in him than most guys his age.
• Mitch McGovern will quickly become an elite player and a draft steal
• Wayne Milera will develop into a far better player than David Mackay and an elite outside midfielder
• Tom Doedee will have a better AFL career than Ryan Burton despite the outrage at his selection

Looking good so far

There's a LOT more in there.

Probably should have made the trade for Gibbs - though it would have meant missing Gallucci.

Trading Lyons was an irrelevance and he's already been sacked by another club.

The trade period may have been bad, but we can't say it affected our flag CHANCES as we played off in Grand Final and you don't get a better chance than that.

I'm not sure we haven't missed Henderson.

McGovern? Still hasn't become an elite player. Probably a steal for us, twice.

 

[Pea Nut]

This is usually how predictions work.

The difference being this is big footy. Most predictions I have ever read on here are miles off. To read so many spot on predictions was very surprising.

 

[PCORF]

The difference being this is big footy. Most predictions I have ever read on here are miles off. To read so many spot on predictions was very surprising.

Funny thing. After the 2017 GF I felt so bad that I predicted Adelaide would finish 12th in 2018. I changed that to 3rd before the start of the season. That karma of first instincts.

 

[Rotayjay]

Putting my hand up: my post from 11 November 2016 was over-the-top and okay on the general mediocrity problem but not so good on specifics.

Midfield 'far off the standard required to win a flag': Very true at some times but not others. Our midfield was superb during our good 2017 games (helping us make the grand final) and vanished at various other times, most notoriously during the grand final itself. In 2018 our mids performed sufficiently poorly in attack and defence that we did not make the eight. Classic example was the first 2018 Showdown.

'There is a worrying trend back towards mediocrity, lack of risk-taking in coaching and outright cowardice in selections. Additionally, I'm worried that the boys club attitude is alive and well. No changes in the coaches box for 2017 and no improvement to the midfield (which is the thing that lets us down most). Jacobs seemingly in decline. Eddie closer to retirement.'

A few issues in the above paragraph went on hiatus in 2017 but seemed to come back with a vengeance in 2018 - particularly cowardly selections, the emergence of Burton as a boys club problem, and poor Sauce's body breaking down.

'Might be in a position to contend in 2018'

Our flag tilt year came one year earlier. 2018 was our wasted year but not sure if it will be the start of a rebuild or a mere 'down year'.

'Sydney, Western Sydney and the Bulldogs will be strong for several years'

Could give myself a pass here but nah. At the time, all three sides seemed to have good enough and young enough lists to be the three major flag challengers in the short term. Sydney and Western Sydney played finals in 2017 and 2018, but haven't made grand finals as I expected them to. The Bulldogs disappeared from the eight (except - unlike us - they actually have a cup to show for it).

For 2019, I concur with Drugs are Bad Mackay and say we will probably finish 6th after H&A, and be eliminated during Week 2 of finals.

 

[Golumless]

• Not trading two first round picks for Bryce Gibbs was the right move as the two draftees will be better for us
• Trading Lyons for pick 43 was a mistake and will work against us
• Scott Thompson should have retired at the end of 2015
• David Mackay is terrible and should be delisted immediately. His remaining games for the club will be plentiful and mediocre
• Our 2016 trade period was an embarrassing shambles complete with mixed messaging and a hugely disappointing outcome. We completely blew the opportunity to strengthen our midfield and I believe it will hurt our flag changes
• The appointment of Burton to replace Noble is odd and indicates that no-one wanted to come here
• Not picking up Barlow as a delisted free agent was the right move
• No one will miss Ricky Henderson
• Cam Ellis-Yolmen will not develop into a best 22 player for us
• In 2016 we blew a massive chance for a flag by performing abysmally against West Coast at home
• Our list is strong for the most part and our forward line will continue to dominate. Eddie Betts has more years in him than most guys his age.
• Mitch McGovern will quickly become an elite player and a draft steal
• Wayne Milera will develop into a far better player than David Mackay and an elite outside midfielder
• Tom Doedee will have a better AFL career than Ryan Burton despite the outrage at his selection

Looking good so far

Giving Lyons as a thumbs up is certainly mayo. As it certainly didn't harm us. Losing players who are depth, or project to be depth in the short term (and the fact we practically gave Lyon away indicates we saw him as nothing more than depth in the short term) don't harm a side. Especially considering he was a slow relatively small inside mid who's only advantage over the incumbent was he was had a bit of flexibility. Something we improved on massively through Greenwood (seeing big bodied mids who can reliably play as a psudeo tall forward are worth their weight in gold).

Rest look solid though.

 

[GROTTO]

Some good , some bad some close. Still a long way to go.

I guess all these posters below were right in that in 2017 we did genuinely challenge for a flag.

• dogs105
• noddy
• Crowked
• Coopers
• whitey_1975
• crowsup
• footy4ever
• Don Muraco
• cammo6556
• GROTTO
• little graham
• Justinpa1
• Houston
• billy fragos
• TexMachine
• jaytex
• Eagleboy2011
• Maggsy
• GreyCrow

 

[Huntercrow]

After the turmoil of last season perhaps we needed to pull back a bit to catch our breath this year.
We appointed a calm and calculating head coach as more of a father figure to the squad rather than a shock and awe personality that may not have been the right fit considering the ltragic loss of our head coach.
We also needed stability within the club so I think Pykes appointment and his philosophy of "keeping it simple" was the priority for 2016.

Looking ahead I think as Pyke masters his coaching technique we may see a more forcefull approach to "getting back to business". I'm expecting Pyke to demand more from the first 22.

This would have a flow on affect to the reserves with more unforced movement between the 2 teams.

I think pre season will be huge for Thomo. He will hit the track hard and if his aging bones can take the extra stress he should be in for round 1. I expect him to play well in the early season with a plan to manage him during mid season and our bye rounds could refresh for another assault later in the season. A fit and firing Thomo would be huge asset to our aspirations. But it must not be at the expense of an up and comer stuck in the reserves.

The big improvers barring injury will be likes of Menzel, Knights, Beech, Hampton, Doedee, Dear and Hunter.

O'brien to play Several games against lesser midfields while Sauce is managed. Hunter to excell in the ressies in Obriens absence.

Another huge season for our forward line with Tex free from injury leading the goal kicking just short of a ton.

Talia and Laird to become excellent rebounders under Pods direction.

Sloane to take it up another notch and show the competition who is the premier mid in the comp.

By years end we will look back to the Gibbs trade and thank our lucky stars we kept our pick 13 whom will debut
By round 5.

Off course while some of the above is wishful thinking I predict with complete confidence whomever we select at pick 43 will always be compared to Jarryd Lyons and his career at the Suns.

My Big improvers list was a bit of a bust Although I did mention Doedee. Even if it was 12 months too soon.
Thomo didn’t quite come through for me.
Talia a rebound defender??.......well at least Sloaney proved me right in the first half of the season.

And for those still bagging Lyons....He was a required player who was lost amongst the Gibbs wheeling and dealing. His 2017 season was outstanding for the Suns. Anyone who says different is trying to rewrite history. Some posters conveniently forget how good his final season was at Adelaide.