AFL 2014 Ladder Predictions

[Dan12]

Same reason as "the best midfield coupled with the most exciting forward line" finished 10th in 2013... I'd imagine a combination of poor culture, being overrated, and a poor coach. I'm sure other people have their own hypotheses, including the tough fixture.

My hypothesis is that their midfield isn't the best in the competition and their forward line isn't that exciting.

 

[Tiger Titus]

My hypothesis is that their midfield isn't the best in the competition and their forward line isn't that exciting.

So harsh.

 

[KillaKanga]

Same reason as "the best midfield coupled with the most exciting forward line" finished 10th in 2013... I'd imagine a combination of poor culture, being overrated, and a poor coach. I'm sure other people have their own hypotheses, including the tough fixture.

You do know I was joking yeah?

Interested to see where you get 'poor culture' from

 

[Royce Hafey]

You do know I was joking yeah?

Interested to see where you get 'poor culture' from

Maybe he isn't impressed with what Petrie has to offer?

 

[KillaKanga]

View attachment 42216
Maybe he isn't impressed with what Petrie has to offer?

Nice

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[SouthSwans]

Cotchin > Swallow
Martin > Ziebell
Deledio = Wells
Ellis = Bastinac
Conca < Cunnington
Vlastuin = Atley
Jackson = Gibson
Grigg < Dal Santo
Foley < Boomer

Ziebell > Martin
Wells > Deledio

 

[timtamWB]

Ziebell > Martin
Wells > Deledio

I was tempted to put Wells => Deledio. They're close, and I would probably choose Wells, but it's really too close to call.

And Martin is better than Ziebell. It's just how it is right now.

 

[SouthSwans]

Martin can kick a goal from 60 on the boundary but loves to go missing for a half. Jack's a big scary bull (Watson/Mundy/JPK style)

 

[madman]

Boak = Cotchin > Swallow
Ebert > Martin > Ziebell
Hartlett < Deledio = Wells
Wingard > Ellis = Bastinac
Moore < Conca < Cunnington
Wines > Vlastuin = Atley
Polec < Jackson = Gibson
White > Grigg < Dal Santo
Cornes > Foley < Boomer

Port wins, I order Richmond and North Melbourne to be quite now.

 

[Stylo]

Boak = Cotchin
Ebert > Martin
White > Grigg

you're funny

 

[SouthSwans]

Boak = Cotchin > Swallow
Ebert > Martin > Ziebell
Hartlett < Deledio = Wells
Wingard > Ellis = Bastinac
Moore < Conca < Cunnington
Wines > Vlastuin = Atley
Polec < Jackson = Gibson
White > Grigg < Dal Santo
Cornes > Foley < Boomer

Port wins, I order Richmond and North Melbourne to be quite now.

Well if you wanna play that game...
Kennedy, O'Keefe, Jack, McVeigh, Hannebery, Jetta & Parker > North, Port & Richmond

 

[Hawkas1988]

Well if you wanna play that game...
Kennedy, O'Keefe, Jack, McVeigh, Hannebery, Jetta & Parker > North, Port & Richmond

Now I'm waiting for a West Coast supporter to bring their Mids up to compare haha.

One lot of supporters who don't overrate their midfield is West Coast supporters

 

[Squibbs]

I think Martin definitely has more potential than Ziebell. Both will become great players, and Bias aside I can see Ziebell becoming the more complete player. But Martin's upside is massive, he could easily become one of the best in the comp, but it's up to him what he does in the next 2 or 3 years that decides just how good he'll be.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Not sure how Jackson = Gibson based on last years form, Jackson was brilliant for us all year, clearly ahead of Gibson who has been solid.

 

[benji2]

Boak = Cotchin > Swallow
Ebert > Martin > Ziebell
Hartlett < Deledio = Wells
Wingard > Ellis = Bastinac
Moore < Conca < Cunnington
Wines > Vlastuin = Atley
Polec < Jackson = Gibson
White > Grigg < Dal Santo
Cornes > Foley < Boomer

Port wins, I order Richmond and North Melbourne to be quite now.

I sense a mathematical research paper in this, look forward to seeing it Maybe a Hawthorn or Fremantle supporter can add their equations.
FWIW I have Richmond and North vying for 4th spot. Agree with the 'enough North vs Richmond' sentiment for this thread, start another one for that.

 

[Tiger71]

I didn't say wanted to play Richmond...and if I did, that wasn't what I meant... But IMO, they all would have preferred to play Richmond than North. You (Richmond) essentially has the typical bottom half of the 8 year where you consistently beat the teams below you and struggled with the teams above (with the odd exception like the Hawthorn game). On the other hand, we (North) consistently challenged the top teams without 'closing the deal' and then would lose random games against the likes of Gold Coast, Brisbane and Adelaide

Ok my 2 cents.

I would think Jay-Z you must be dwayne russell peddling the same incorrect rubbish every richmond game last year. There was this myth last year that we never beat those above us, yet you compare the games we played, against opposition at that time we played them, and oh lord, most were higher *gasp*. Simpletons, not you, referring to Dwayne just like to harp on something because it sounds cool.

We beat WC when they were in the 8 coming off winning 90% of there games. We were outside the 8
We beat Adelaide, in Adelaide when it was 9v10, we were 10th. The winner was going to get into the 8.

People just remember the 6-10 goal beatings we gave out as it was so un richmond like.

Now as to not being dangerous to "Finals" sides and they wanting to play us over you. Again opinion. You say we struggled, yet we beat Hawthorn by 10 goals when they were coming off a 10 goal beating the year previous against us and every man and his dog were tipping they would teach us a lesson. We lost to Freo in Perth by under a kick but then beat them quite easily in melbourne. We smashed Essendon, we have Sydneys measure in melbourne, and we were actually in front of the cats before both of our rucks went down which IMO made us lose the plot.

Yes we still need to improve, we did not handle cloke well against the pies and we had to really poor games against North and Essendon which were bad. I always hear North supporters talk about the win against us as like some major victory. We were obviously so off our game that day that even though you deserved the win, no doubting that, it was an aberration. For proof of that, just look at our games for the year, we never played that bad outside of the bombers game. I was just spewing we did not play you twice that year.

IMO in 2012 we lost around 6 to 8 games by under either a kick or 12 pts. I believe we finished the year with the lowest losing margin average in nearly 30 years. Lower then yours this year i believe. So I understand the frustration but IMO the confidence you have leading to 2014 but you have one major flaw. Even though we lost so many close games last year, our whole team was focused on defense, defensive two way running and team defense, was the reason we brought the Hawk bloke to our coaching group.

In 2013 we became one of the hardest teams for our opposition to score chains of goals against. That IMO is were, to date we are different. You go on about your forward line being better, we had a fantastic forward line. We were known to be able to go BANG and kick huge scores, never played finals though. IMO its true what they say about defense = success. That is your biggest worry. Your points against last year was 1930, Adelaide for example had 1909 and were riddled with major injury's.

Your midfield on paper looks great and stats create a picture of a great contested side but in reality the bulldogs were also a good contested side. Contested possession means nothing if you don't maintain possession. A good midfield defends but also should score from center clearances and stoppages. I know Richmonds mids rated top 4 in those areass, what about North ? IMO that and your overall team defence will paint a clearer picture of who has a better midfield. You see, its a trap to compare mids as individuals, Martin better then Ziebell etc in a team game. It really should be, which mid group work better together to score, and apply pressure. If that was the case, as of last year Richmond mid group >>> North's mid group.

Lastly, the biggest worry that can be easily painted over is that North lost a lot of games when they had a lead. That is more worrying. I know how hard of a monkey that is to shake, just look at Cartlon v us when we in both losses last year had leads from 20-30pts+. In 2012 when we lost a lot of close games it was normally us running the opposition down, it seemed with you guys it was the reverse. Sides ran North down.....

 

[Holy Rioli]

Ok my 2 cents.

I would think Jay-Z you must be dwayne russell peddling the same incorrect rubbish every richmond game last year. There was this myth last year that we never beat those above us, yet you compare the games we played, against opposition at that time we played them, and oh lord, most were higher *gasp*. Simpletons, not you, referring to Dwayne just like to harp on something because it sounds cool.

We beat WC when they were in the 8 coming off winning 90% of there games. We were outside the 8
We beat Adelaide, in Adelaide when it was 9v10, we were 10th. The winner was going to get into the 8.

People just remember the 6-10 goal beatings we gave out as it was so un richmond like.

Now as to not being dangerous to "Finals" sides and they wanting to play us over you. Again opinion. You say we struggled, yet we beat Hawthorn by 7 goals when they were coming off a 10 goal beating the year previous against us and every man and his dog were tipping they would teach us a lesson. We lost to Freo in Perth by under a kick but then beat them quite easily in melbourne. We smashed Essendon, we have Sydneys measure in melbourne, and we were actually in front of the cats before both of our rucks went down which IMO made us lose the plot.

Yes we still need to improve, we did not handle cloke well against the pies and we had to really poor games against North and Essendon which were bad. I always hear North supporters talk about the win against us as like some major victory. We were obviously so off our game that day that even though you deserved the win, no doubting that, it was an aberration. For proof of that, just look at our games for the year, we never played that bad outside of the bombers game. I was just spewing we did not play you twice that year.

IMO in 2012 we lost around 6 to 8 games by under either a kick or 12 pts. I believe we finished the year with the lowest losing margin average in nearly 30 years. Lower then yours this year i believe. So I understand the frustration but IMO the confidence you have leading to 2014 but you have one major flaw. Even though we lost so many close games last year, our whole team was focused on defense, defensive two way running and team defense, was the reason we brought the Hawk bloke to our coaching group.

In 2013 we became one of the hardest teams for our opposition to score chains of goals against. That IMO is were, to date we are different. You go on about your forward line being better, we had a fantastic forward line. We were known to be able to go BANG and kick huge scores, never played finals though. IMO its true what they say about defense = success. That is your biggest worry. Your points against last year was 1930, Adelaide for example had 1909 and were riddled with major injury's.

Your midfield on paper looks great and stats create a picture of a great contested side but in reality the bulldogs were also a good contested side. Contested possession means nothing if you don't maintain possession. A good midfield defends but also should score from center clearances and stoppages. I know Richmonds mids rated top 4 in those areass, what about North ? IMO that and your overall team defence will paint a clearer picture of who has a better midfield. You see, its a trap to compare mids as individuals, Martin better then Ziebell etc in a team game. It really should be, which mid group work better together to score, and apply pressure. If that was the case, as of last year Richmond mid group >>> North's mid group.

Lastly, the biggest worry that can be easily painted over is that North lost a lot of games when they had a lead. That is more worrying. I know how hard of a monkey that is to shake, just look at Cartlon v us when we in both losses last year had leads from 20-30pts+. In 2012 when we lost a lot of close games it was normally us running the opposition down, it seemed with you guys it was the reverse. Sides ran North down.....

EFA

 

[Jay-Z]

Ok my 2 cents.
<snip>

First of all... that was insanely long and I'm slightly concerned for you that you felt the need to put in all that effort to change my mind / prove me wrong.

Secondly, you do make some good points but your bias also shows through and you are just as ignorant of North as you accuse me being of Richmond.

I don't think it is accurate to say defense = success, otherwise Freo would have won the flag. The actual premiers weren't even top 4 for points against and only had 70 less points scored against them than North.

While our team defense let us down at times during the year, it wasn't as big an issue as you're making it out to be. As many of your fellow Tigers supporters have pointed out, the difference between you and us this year was 5 wins, to get those 5 wins we would only have to reduce our total scored against by 16 points. That's less than 3 goals over the course of the season. I'm sure that the additions of Leigh Tudor and Gavin Brown to the coaching panel will handle this.

 

[GarnerSmash]

1: Freo
2: Sydney
3: Hawthorn
4: Richmond
5: Geelong
6: North
7: Collingwood
8: Port

9: Carlton
10: Adelaide
11: Essendon
12: West Coast
13: Gold Coast
14: Brisbane
15: Dogs
16: Melbourne
17: GWS
18: St. Kilda

Gonna be a tough year to get predictions right. Arguments can be made for pretty much all teams from 5-14 to push for finals. Great for the comp though.

 

[Holy Rioli]

First of all... that was insanely long and I'm slightly concerned for you that you felt the need to put in all that effort to change my mind / prove me wrong.

Secondly, you do make some good points but your bias also shows through and you are just as ignorant of North as you accuse me being of Richmond.

I don't think it is accurate to say defense = success, otherwise Freo would have won the flag. The actual premiers weren't even top 4 for points against and only had 70 less points scored against them than North.

While our team defense let us down at times during the year, it wasn't as big an issue as you're making it out to be. As many of your fellow Tigers supporters have pointed out, the difference between you and us this year was 5 wins, to get those 5 wins we would only have to reduce our total scored against by 16 points. That's less than 3 goals over the course of the season. I'm sure that the additions of Leigh Tudor and Gavin Brown to the coaching panel will handle this.

Actual premiers conceded less points per game in finals series (playing other top 4 sides) than best defensive team in H&A season. I think you sell their defense a bit short (considering they only conceded 8 goals in a GF as well and only 1 to half time).

 

[Jay-Z]

Actual premiers conceded less points per game in finals series (playing other top 4 sides) than best defensive team in H&A season. I think you sell their defense a bit short (considering they only conceded 8 goals in a GF as well and only 1 to half time).

I'm not saying Hawthorn's defense is ordinary. I'm saying the best defense doesn't equal the best team. You have to be good at both attack and defense (as the Hawks were).

 

[Mningasimisonda]

Do you think Geelong would stand a chance against any of the other teams in your top 4? I reckon Collingwood look better than Geelong this year and they're "rebuilding".

The Cats are my big slider this year - real chance to miss the 8 (and to be honest they're due).

You might be surprised at the young talent Geelong has and the role they played in getting to and almost winning the prelim.

 

[Hawkas1988]

Yeah I can't see the cats sliding, they nearly made a gf without hawkins and no real ruckman due to injuries

They lost chappy thats about it (Hunt and Corey werent exactly great players last year)

They will be up there again

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[Hodgepodge]

Yeah I can't see the cats sliding, they nearly made a gf without hawkins and no real ruckman due to injuries

They lost chappy thats about it (Hunt and Corey werent exactly great players last year)

The loss of Corey is significant given that he was going at 20.8 disposals a game, which means he was at least a depth player for their midfield. This gives an opportunity to Horlin-Smith, and although he can find the ball, he's probably the least agile midfielder I've ever seen. Not a like for like in terms of replacing Corey.

Podsiadly is also a significant loss since he was a 30+ goalkicker who could play in defence when required. Vardy/Kersten need to step up.

Trent West is just depth, but also potentially a big loss if McIntosh/Simpson don't start putting some games together. Geelong's leading hitout winner in 2013, and they might find themselves wishing they'd kept him.

Enright 32/33, Bartel 30/31 and Johnson 30/31 are also very important to Geelong and need to maintain for another year.

 

[Hawkas1988]

The loss of Corey is significant given that he was going at 20.8 disposals a game, which means he was at least a depth player for their midfield. This gives an opportunity to Horlin-Smith, and although he can find the ball, he's probably the least agile midfielder I've ever seen. Not a like for like in terms of replacing Corey.

Podsiadly is also a significant loss since he was a 30+ goalkicker who could play in defence when required. Vardy/Kersten need to step up.

Trent West is just depth, but also potentially a big loss if McIntosh/Simpson don't start putting some games together. Geelong's leading hitout winner in 2013, and they might find themselves wishing they'd kept him.

Enright 32/33, Bartel 30/31 and Johnson 30/31 are also very important to Geelong and need to maintain for another year.

2013 Corey isn't hard to replace. As got Pods, Vardy/Kersten can easily step in and do just as good as Pods. They are ready and thats why it wasn't a big loss for the cats.

As for the ages of their guns, same argument could be made for their quality youngsters coming through with another year under their belt


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