Autopsy AFL 2021 First Preliminary Final - Demons v Cats Fri September 10th 7:50pm EST / 5:50pm WST (Optus)

[Vivy]

The quarter Geelong won very, very comprehensively had a ball movement pattern anomaly from both teams that didn’t occur in the other seven quarters of Melbourne vs. Geelong this season.

Without that anomalous quarter it’s 43 scoring shots Melbourne and 23 Geelong this year.

It will take a hell of a coaching effort from Geelong to buck that trend and/or horrendous finishing from Melbourne and great finishing from Geelong.

I wouldn't be taking much out of the first game considering by Geelong's own admission its poor form and lineup.

Taking out 11 shots of a quarter from shots on goal because the ball pattern is 'anomalous' is a very odd way of cherry picking.

The ball pattern can be anomalous by virtue of one team simply beating another which leads to the shots on goal obviously.

 

[banzai]

Geelong beat Port comfortably in the home and away season in Adelaide then got thumped in the final. Big finals are a completely different intensity and will suit Melbourne's game style a lot more. Geelong will need to jump Melbourne at the start and then play from in front to have a chance.

 

[Chief]

 

[willydave]

Dees will be adopting a defensive midfield formation from opening bounce. No Dangerfield bursts, or they'll be reliant on Stanley winning hitouts.

A lot has been talked about round 23, but all it really took was Yze et al saying let's play a defensive centreman, stopped cats exiting through the front of stoppage and the Cats' one wood was back in the bag. Really wish the boys could've organised that themselves a little better 'in quarter' as it was big damage in 6-10 minutes.

It's going to be fascinating what Scott comes up with for Friday night.

 

[Lampers]

I wouldn't be taking much out of the first game considering by Geelong's own admission its poor form and lineup.

Taking out 11 shots of a quarter from shots on goal because the ball pattern is 'anomalous' is a very odd way of cherry picking.

The ball pattern can be anomalous by virtue of one team simply beating another which leads to the shots on goal obviously.

Beating the other - for a relatively small window of time. And the much larger window of time it was steadier but the reverse pattern.

If anyone is cherry picking it’s you to say the relatively brief window is more normal than the longer periods.

 

[Vivy]

Beating the other - for a relatively small window of time. And the much larger window of time it was steadier but the reverse pattern.

If anyone is cherry picking it’s you to say the relatively brief window is more normal than the longer periods.

I didn't say that.

 

[pineapple dee]

Tom Stewart is by far the best defender in the competition.

Apart from Brayden Maynard and Jeremy Howe you mean.

 

[pineapple dee]

Thread needs more posts about Stewart and Lever.

Stewart's pretty good . Is he as good as Lever ??
No, I don't think so. How's that ?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Stewart's pretty good . Is he as good as Lever ??
No, I don't think so. How's that ?

You need to drink some water and go to bed

 

[Toump Ass]

This will be a good game, nobody should forget Geelong scored 8 goals against the Dees last time in one QTR without Tuohy and Stewart to hold off the comeback. This time they will have 4 key forwards in Hawkins, Cameron, Rohan and Esava. Down on ruck strength, but the backline is bolstered by the return of Tuohy who had 31 touches the other night. Cats midfield is just as good. Every media and armchair expert is tipping Melbourne, but i dunno, i have a feeling the Demons could come a cropper in this one? Cats by 26points.

Rohan is literal dog shit in finals. I’d be more worried if he was dropped in favour of a witches hat.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Cats have gone all in this year. A finals loss is a failure. Dees lose we still have years of young talent to have a crack

Don’t fall into that trap mate, Pies supporters were saying this in the lead up to the 2011 GF against us. There are no guarantees, a loss this Friday would certainly be a failure. For Geelong OR Melbourne.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Going to be difficult. Play this 10 times the dees win 9.

Cats with a non-zero chance

I’m not sure about this assessment, I’d call it 6 wins to Melbourne out of 10 territory.....The pros for the Dees are the week off, they were the best team over the H&A season (including two wins against Geelong), & they have the best ruckman in the comp.....The cons for them though is way less finals experience (particularly prelims), the 57 year premiership hoodoo & facing up to the best forward combination in the league. This one will be close. The Dees are deserved favourites, but this isn’t a case of one team being far superior than the other.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I’m not sure about this assessment, I’d call it 6 wins to Melbourne out of 10 territory.....The pros for the Dees are the week off, they were the best team over the H&A season (including two wins against Geelong), & they have the best ruckman in the comp.....The cons for them though is way less finals experience (particularly prelims), the 57 year premiership hoodoo & facing up to the best forward combination in the league. This one will be close. The Dees are deserved favourites, but this isn’t a case of one team being far superior than the other.

Yeah you can make cases. We have a pretty great forward mix but you gotta get it there.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Yeah you can make cases. We have a pretty great forward mix but you gotta get it there.

I agree, & the Dees have a formidable midfield no doubt, but our Core of Danger, Selwood, Guthrie & Duncan are hardly slouches....All bar one has been AA. If I was a neutral I’d be probably leaning to the Dees by about 2 goals, but as I said this isn’t a game like the 2004 PF was for us where we knew we were completely outmatched & needed everything to go right.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Yes there always has been some niggle when it comes to West Coast.

I imagine Docker fans will have a similar dislike for Geelong?

I’d expect the majority of crowd support for the Dees on Friday, because of them trying to break the drought. If History repeats they will get that support & get all the adulation, but if they go on a run of success they’ll become disliked very quickly. Like what happened with us & Richmond.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I agree, & the Dees have a formidable midfield no doubt, but our Core of Danger, Selwood, Guthrie & Duncan are hardly slouches....All bar one has been AA. If I was a neutral I’d be probably leaning to the Dees by about 2 goals, but as I said this isn’t a game like the 2004 PF was for us where we knew we were completely outmatched & needed everything to go right.

True. Maybe the extra ruck rotation from Sav means we can hold the fort there, plus if he can force lever into being more aerially accountable we can take away a bit of their best work. Gonna take out best shot

 

[Catsnlakers]

True. Maybe the extra ruck rotation from Sav means we can hold the fort there, plus if he can force lever into being more aerially accountable we can take away a bit of their best work. Gonna take out best shot

Yea I agree, I think you can pretty much safely say that if Gawn is in the top 3 on the ground, we lose. Rhys & Sav just have to try & break even in that battle....Easier said than done, but Rhys has shown he’s capable of doing it, most notably in the first half of Round 23.

 

[Jibroni]

I’d expect the majority of crowd support for the Dees on Friday, because of them trying to break the drought. If History repeats they will get that support & get all the adulation, but if they go on a run of success they’ll become disliked very quickly. Like what happened with us & Richmond.

Where do I sign?

 

[Catsnlakers]

Where do I sign?

....Yea I’d be like that too, for your sake I hope you experience it, but I’m kind of hoping you don’t for obvious reasons. But trust me, that’s how it happens, the good will turns to envy pretty quickly.

 

[PhatBoy]

Geelong beat Port comfortably in the home and away season in Adelaide then got thumped in the final. Big finals are a completely different intensity and will suit Melbourne's game style a lot more. Geelong will need to jump Melbourne at the start and then play from in front to have a chance.

More to the point, not GET jumped.

 

[banzai]

I think this game being away from Melbourne might help the Dees. If this was at the G the pressure on them going into the prelim as clear flag favs would be insane, surely a lot of that is not felt being in Perth. Is Jayden Hunt

5

Jayden Hunt

Age

29

Ht

188cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.0

1star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

3star

MG

78.7

1star

D

5.3

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.7

2star

T

2.3

4star

MG

78.7

2star

likely to come in? Surely he's best 22, but its hard to change a winning side in finals.

 

[Xtreme]

Tom Stewart is by far the best defender in the competition.

Ben Stratton laughs at this post!

 

[Xtreme]

I agree, & the Dees have a formidable midfield no doubt, but our Core of Danger, Selwood, Guthrie & Duncan are hardly slouches....All bar one has been AA. If I was a neutral I’d be probably leaning to the Dees by about 2 goals, but as I said this isn’t a game like the 2004 PF was for us where we knew we were completely outmatched & needed everything to go right.

Your players are old and need more than the Auskick style oranges to get the boost of energy required for a big game. Geelong will need to play out of their skins while hoping Melbourne have an off night.

 

[Lampers]

I didn't say that.

Just what ARE you saying then? I can’t see you actually sticking your neck out and saying anything except to try and counter my points. Do you think Geelong will win? If so, why will they win?

Cherry-picking: the action or practice of choosing and taking only the most beneficial or profitable items, opportunities, etc., from what is available.

You said I was doing a very odd form of cherry picking.

My position is Melbourne, for the significant majority of both games between these teams this year, when each team’s ball movement patterns are consistent, have scored much more than Geelong. By ~70 points in fact and it would be greater if Melbourne had finished at even an AFL average rate in round 4.

I identified there is a relatively brief window of around 30 minutes where there is distinctly different ball movement patterns from both teams, and Geelong easily out scored Melbourne, by ~45 points. 30 of those points came in four minutes - which is not to say it doesn’t count or should be completely ignored, but that sort of burst is very rare. Both Geelong and Melbourne were moving the ball through the centre instead of Geelong’s usual sideways switching pattern and Melbourne’s usual attacking wing dominant pattern.

Disregarding half of the history of this year’s meetings between the teams in its entirety as “I wouldn’t take too much out of the first game” because of poor form and lineup is cherry picking, plus it ignores Melbourne also have a stronger team than in round 4.

Saying the relatively brief period in the second game where Geelong got right on top is “one team simply beating another” is cherry picking unless you’re happy to acknowledge Melbourne was “simply beating” Geelong for 80%+ of their game time this year.

If it’s that easy to beat Melbourne, why didn’t Geelong just “simply beat” Melbourne for the last 45 minutes of play in round 23? Geelong knew they couldn’t repeat that dominance, and they tried to kill time and hang on instead.

Check the round 23 game day thread. At half time I stuck my neck out and said I wasn’t that concerned because I didn’t think the way Geelong dominated was sustainable and therefore unlikely to repeat. There was much lol reactions. But I was right - although I had no expectation Geelong would lose at half time and my comment was more about potential future match ups like this Friday.

I think Geelong absolutely can win as they have several exceptional players. But I think it’s unlikely that enough of those exceptional players will fire for long enough on Friday, predominantly based on the data that shows they haven’t been able to for a sustained period yet this year against Melbourne.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

Cats will win.
The media has already pencilled in Melbourne for the flag, and every time they do that for any team, they inevitably choke