Autopsy AFL 2023 First Preliminary Final - Pies v GWS Fri Sept 22nd 7:50pm EST (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Pies by a goal or less

    Votes: 11 5.0%
  • GWS by a goal or less

    Votes: 15 6.8%
  • Pies by 7 - 20

    Votes: 63 28.5%
  • GWS by 7 - 20

    Votes: 82 37.1%
  • Pies by a lot

    Votes: 36 16.3%
  • GWS by a lot

    Votes: 13 5.9%
  • Draw

    Votes: 1 0.5%

  • Total voters
    221
  • Poll closed .

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Why?

You think they’ll sell less tickets? Or do you think less viewers will watch the AFL GF if it’s not 2 Victorian teams playing?

These posts seriously confuse me…
So, do think this is a level playing feild were every club, the non Victorian clubs in particular, have an equal chance of winning? To be fair I'm not saying it's quite as bad as the WWF but that type of entertainment rates pretty well on television too! :D
 
I have never understood the 'nothing to lose' narrative. I don't care if no one expected a team to make a Prelim but once you get here there is a whole lot to lose for both teams, a shot at winning a flag. People said this about us last year that we had nothing to lose playing against Sydney in the Prelim but losing by 1 point and a chance to play on Grand Final Day was a massive loss.

Genuine 50/50 contest this one. If we can stay with them in the middle then that will go long way to us winning. Easier said than done though given the form of their midfield.

It's silly, isn't it? All four teams that make it to preliminary final weekend have genuine premiership credentials, and they might not make another preliminary final for many years to come (e.g. Carlton is playing in its first preliminary final since last making it over 20 years ago).

Losing a preliminary final is worse than losing a grand final in my opinion. Playing in a grand final is an experience unto itself regardless of the result, and obviously winning one is the ultimate achievement.

There's no such thing as nothing to lose for the four sides that make it to the second last weekend of a marathon season, one win away from making it to the big dance and what is the biggest annual team sports event in the country for fans and players alike.
 

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Do the last 8 weeks

Do Melbourne's last however many weeks you want vs. Collingwood's before QF1. You'd have to go back further than most would consider a reliable indicator before the numbers were favorable to Collingwood. Yet here we are, with Collingwood beating Melbourne in QF1 and playing in a preliminary final, while Melbourne has been eliminated after failing to win either of its two finals matches.
 
Do Melbourne's last however many weeks you want vs. Collingwood's before QF1. You'd have to go back further than most would consider a reliable indicator before the numbers were favorable to Collingwood. Yet here we are, with Collingwood beating Melbourne in QF1 and playing in a preliminary final, while Melbourne has been eliminated after failing to win either of its two finals matches.
I don't think with GWS' forwards that Collingwood can afford to lose the inside 50 count by 30 something again though.
 
I don't think with GWS' forwards that Collingwood can afford to lose the inside 50 count by 30 something again though.

Probably not. But, in a hypothetical world where because something happened in one match it might happen again in the next match, Collingwood still might win if, say, GWS kicked 7.11 to Collingwood's 9.6.
 
Probably not. But, in a hypothetical world where because something happened in one match it might happen again in the next match, Collingwood still might win if, say, GWS kicked 7.11 to Collingwood's 9.6.
True. What really worries me is that GWS have no chance of kicking 7 goals or less with 60 plus inside 50s.
 
True. What really worries me is that GWS have no chance of kicking 7 goals or less with 60 plus inside 50s.

I would have said the same of Melbourne! Hopefully, at least for us pies supporters, the answer to how many goals GWS would kick from 60+ i50s will be a theoretical extrapolation of however many they actually kick this Friday from <30 of them ;)
 

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I would have said the same of Melbourne! Hopefully, at least for us pies supporters, the answer to how many goals GWS would kick from 60+ i50s will be a theoretical extrapolation of however many they actually kick this Friday from <30 of them ;)
I wouldn't said the same about Melbourne, because I've seen their forward line and noted their remarkable inclination for inefficiency when kicking for goal.

I daresay for Collingwood to win they'll have to win the inside 50 count, which I think is what you alluded to at the end of your post.
 
Do Melbourne's last however many weeks you want vs. Collingwood's before QF1. You'd have to go back further than most would consider a reliable indicator before the numbers were favorable to Collingwood. Yet here we are, with Collingwood beating Melbourne in QF1 and playing in a preliminary final, while Melbourne has been eliminated after failing to win either of its two finals matches.
 

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AFL and fairness odd thought. The AFL said no 6 day breaks before prelims a few years ago. That is of course unless a team like Collingwood can gain some advantage. This game had to be in the Saturday in the name of integrity.

Basically Collingwood has been handed a 4 goal start.
Classic case of Hanlon’s Razor.

never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by neglect, ignorance or incompetence

Or, in the case of the AFL, all of the above.
 
So, do think this is a level playing feild were every club, the non Victorian clubs in particular, have an equal chance of winning? To be fair I'm not saying it's quite as bad as the WWF but that type of entertainment rates pretty well on television too! :D
Yeah, I think it is.

Can you explain why four Victorian teams played off for the only two premierships in the history of the game outside Victoria a couple of years back if there is such an advantage having the GF at the MCG?
 
And the Lions and Pies aren't in form?
Collingwood won 4 of their last 7 leading into finals.

Brisbane won 5 of 7 leading into finals.

Carlton won 6 of 7.

Gws won 5 of 7.

So I guess Carlton has the best form, followed by gws and Brisbane. Collingwood the worst form of the 4 remaining sides.
 
Yeah, I think it is.

Can you explain why four Victorian teams played off for the only two premierships in the history of the game outside Victoria a couple of years back if there is such an advantage having the GF at the MCG?
So you're using the pandemic years as evidence that their isn't an advantage for Vic teams playing at the MCG? Is that your point?
If that's the case I'd say we'd need a little more sample data to validate this theory. Perhaps we could play the next 25 years of Grand Finals outside the MCG and then have another look at the data to make some comparisons and draw some conclusions. ;)
We could also look at evening out the fixture!
 

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Autopsy AFL 2023 First Preliminary Final - Pies v GWS Fri Sept 22nd 7:50pm EST (MCG)

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