Autopsy AFL 2023 First Preliminary Final - Pies v GWS Fri Sept 22nd 7:50pm EST (MCG)

[JustaBattler]

Collingwood have had a bye after a flukey win over Melbourne in the finals H&A season. If Melbourne hadn't been so wasteful and silly in that game- Collingwood would have already been eliminated from the discussion as of today - the Blues would have seen them out ( as they usually do to Collingwood in finals) and if one needs more 'evidence' just watch the easy thrashing handed out to Collingwood in the lead up to finals - by what was a VFL Carlton team on the day -a few weeks ago.

but back to the game at hand after a bit of recent game results as background...

GWS have had two wins in the H&A finals season - demolishing two teams that finished well above them in the pre-finals H&A season - which just goes to show that H&A positioning and finishes don't mean as much as H&A season believers think.

Teams sometimes come in a tad 'flat' after a bye. Collingwood's formline leading into the finals season is below GWS. It is no wonder that Collingwood supporters are justifiably nervous. However, Collingwood shouldn't be dismissed out of hand - they have the games best player in Naicos coming back to save them from total embarrassment and a very vocal Collingwood army of supporters to cheer their efforts on. Collingwood could get lucky and GWS might just have an off day or a few too many bad bounces - because that is what Collingwood will need to win - and it could happen anything is possible in an elimination game.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

All this talk of GWS having the superior midfield and forward line.... it's puzzling how we managed to beat them by 11 goals in our only encounter this year.

Maybe we just got lucky that day?

a couple of points to that.

first - that was before we got good

and second - from that team...
out: Flynn, Fleeton, Angwin, Cadman, Haynes, Peatling
in: Toby Green, Taylor, Cumming, Keefe, Riccardi, Briggs
I'm also pretty sure Ward won't be the sub.

some might consider our current iteration to be ever so slightly better to the one you smacked all the way back in May.

 

[PenfoldsFan]

So what you're saying is that Giants were never tested, so how can they be the real deal?

Tested, lol, the Giants do the testing.

They blew us apart with 20m of footy. Now I dont think we're quite the side that we were when we played you, but you beat us by 2pts with Naicos at peak.
Nick will need to find his way and the pressure GWS bring will be enormous.

Its your club that'll be tested.

 

[YeoShuey]

Tested, lol, the Giants do the testing.

They blew us apart with 20m of footy. Now I dont think we're quite the side that we we're when we played you, but you beat us by 2pts with Naicos at peak.
Nick will need to find his way and the pressure GWS bring will be enormous.

Its your club that'll be tested.

I don’t mean to offend but the semi last week said more about Port than it did GWS.

I don’t think Port are made for finals. Lost to Brisbane which was fair enough but against GWS… Port were one of the poorest skill execution teams that I have seen all season. If they played like that during the season, I doubt they would have finished in the top 4 because they have played like a 9-12 side in finals.

 

[JyeDye]

GWS by 50

 

[PenfoldsFan]

I don’t mean to offend but the semi last week said more about Port than it did GWS.

I don’t think Port are made for finals. Lost to Brisbane which was fair enough but against GWS… Port were one of the poorest skill execution teams that I have seen all season. If they played like that during the season, I doubt they would have finished in the top 4 because they have played like a 9-12 side in finals.

No offence taken, it wasn't our finest moment but 9-12, please.

We carried away the same form from the Qfinal as every other team to play Brisbane in Brisbane this year, as you'll find out soon enough I believe.
We actually went with GWS for all but 20 minutes of the Semi, but you only play as well as the opposition let you and they didnt let us. They didnt let us near it.

 

[iGNITER]

Going to be a cracker.

Can't wait to see Nick Daicos back out there. Handy inclusion.

 

[No SPIN]

Tested, lol, the Giants do the testing.

They blew us apart with 20m of footy. Now I dont think we're quite the side that we were when we played you, but you beat us by 2pts with Naicos at peak.
Nick will need to find his way and the pressure GWS bring will be enormous.

Its your club that'll be tested.

You made the point the Giants are the real deal - but then concede PA were far from their best. Beating PA at full strength and injury free, would have allowed you to justify they are the real deal.
Blowing you apart in 20 minutes is more a reflection on how bad PA were.

 

[timokane]

I want to know why people are not tipping the Pies.

 

[Veer Right]

This needed to be in BOLD. Thanks to Soapy.

 

[Arr0w]

All this talk of GWS having the superior midfield and forward line.... it's puzzling how we managed to beat them by 11 goals in our only encounter this year.

Maybe we just got lucky that day?

That's the basis of your analysis and prediction, a game in mid May?

 

[timokane]

Collingwood tho had top 4 sewen up round 14 the rest of the H and A was just motoring along.

Self presservation.

Port was when we got top 3 and the cats game win was the one that we avoided having to play interstate week 1 finals.

Kind of let lions win next week because of it.

Training drill v essendon kind of a match sim.

Back to business v dees got the job done.

Back fresh as a daisy again v gws.

No excuses now Collingwood will play in the GF and now its a case of finally winning 1 and chalking up flag 16.

Its time.

GWS never made top 4 or even top 6.

Just scraped in had a good run in August thats all.

 

[Sweeetleftfoot]

And the Lions and Pies aren't in form?

Of course the lions and pies aren’t in form, didn’t you know the season only started for Carlton and gws after round 14. I love the cherry picked stats that people offer.

 

[Sweeetleftfoot]

Collingwood won 4 of their last 7 leading into finals.

Brisbane won 5 of 7 leading into finals.

Carlton won 6 of 7.

Gws won 5 of 7.

So I guess Carlton has the best form, followed by gws and Brisbane. Collingwood the worst form of the 4 remaining sides.

Ah yes cherry picked stats, the best kind of stats.

 

[Sweeetleftfoot]

Collingwood have had a bye after a flukey win over Melbourne in the finals H&A season. If Melbourne hadn't been so wasteful and silly in that game- Collingwood would have already been eliminated from the discussion as of today - the Blues would have seen them out ( as they usually do to Collingwood in finals) and if one needs more 'evidence' just watch the easy thrashing handed out to Collingwood in the lead up to finals - by what was a VFL Carlton team on the day -a few weeks ago.

but back to the game at hand after a bit of recent game results as background...

GWS have had two wins in the H&A finals season - demolishing two teams that finished well above them in the pre-finals H&A season - which just goes to show that H&A positioning and finishes don't mean as much as H&A season believers think.

Teams sometimes come in a tad 'flat' after a bye. Collingwood's formline leading into the finals season is below GWS. It is no wonder that Collingwood supporters are justifiably nervous. However, Collingwood shouldn't be dismissed out of hand - they have the games best player in Naicos coming back to save them from total embarrassment and a very vocal Collingwood army of supporters to cheer their efforts on. Collingwood could get lucky and GWS might just have an off day or a few too many bad bounces - because that is what Collingwood will need to win - and it could happen anything is possible in an elimination game.

Gees, you really put a lot of thought into what was essentially drivel.

 

[JustaBattler]

Ah yes cherry picked stats, the best kind of stats.

What stats would you prefer to see posted?

 

[PerthBoy86]

I have never understood the 'nothing to lose' narrative. I don't care if no one expected a team to make a Prelim but once you get here there is a whole lot to lose for both teams, a shot at winning a flag. People said this about us last year that we had nothing to lose playing against Sydney in the Prelim but losing by 1 point and a chance to play on Grand Final Day was a massive loss.

Genuine 50/50 contest this one. If we can stay with them in the middle then that will go long way to us winning. Easier said than done though given the form of their midfield.

I agree it's a loss regardless, but I think if a team is expected to challenge for a flag/is in the 'window', and to make/win a prelim, there is more pressure than a team that unexpectedly gets there or gets there earlier than expected. Or if a team has one last shot before an expected decline (Richmond 2020, Geelong 2022). In that sense there's more pressure on Collingwood and Brisbane.

 

[OniAu]

Excited for this game.

GWS lost to Port a few weeks back by 60 odd points ? That form isnt relevant for them , but the pies losses to Carlton and Hawks are. Noted!

Should be a cracking game. I feel its going to be a game won by the small/med forwards with both ends having great key position players.

Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

will be huge for GWS. i cant wait to see what Titch does to negate him.

Toby and Maynard another cracker match up

 

[OniAu]

What stats would you prefer to see posted?

How many prelims have you played in , in the last 10 years , experience wise

 

[ep2018]

View attachment 1807886

This needed to be in BOLD. Thanks to Soapy.

Carlton's only loss being against GWS after having 5th spot sewn up as well.

 

[JustaBattler]

How many prelims have you played in , in the last 10 years , experience wise

Well that is simple - ZERO. Coincidentally, the same 'number' as my care factor and (perhaps to the numerate) will have the same explanatory power for any outcome this weekend.

 

[DaddyMac80]

Wonderful to see so many Blues fans!
It's a shame but I reckon you'll fall short in Brisbane, just.
We'll scrape home over the Giants.
GF will come down to who is more banged up.
Hit em hard for us Blues!!!

 

[Orange crush]

Wonderful to see so many Blues fans!
It's a shame but I reckon you'll fall short in Brisbane, just.
We'll scrape home over the Giants.
GF will come down to who is more banged up.
Hit em hard for us Blues!!!

This is the most likely scenario ... I guess we need to hit you lads hard as well to even things up

 

[DaddyMac80]

This is the most likely scenario ... I guess we need to hit you lads hard as well to even things up

Of course only fair!

Dam these Toby Green nightmares!!!

 

[jakson68]

Collingwood have had a bye after a flukey win over Melbourne in the finals H&A season. If Melbourne hadn't been so wasteful and silly in that game- Collingwood would have already been eliminated from the discussion as of today - the Blues would have seen them out ( as they usually do to Collingwood in finals) and if one needs more 'evidence' just watch the easy thrashing handed out to Collingwood in the lead up to finals - by what was a VFL Carlton team on the day -a few weeks ago.

but back to the game at hand after a bit of recent game results as background...

GWS have had two wins in the H&A finals season - demolishing two teams that finished well above them in the pre-finals H&A season - which just goes to show that H&A positioning and finishes don't mean as much as H&A season believers think.

Teams sometimes come in a tad 'flat' after a bye. Collingwood's formline leading into the finals season is below GWS. It is no wonder that Collingwood supporters are justifiably nervous. However, Collingwood shouldn't be dismissed out of hand - they have the games best player in Naicos coming back to save them from total embarrassment and a very vocal Collingwood army of supporters to cheer their efforts on. Collingwood could get lucky and GWS might just have an off day or a few too many bad bounces - because that is what Collingwood will need to win - and it could happen anything is possible in an elimination game.

You are really enjoying your 5 minutes of relevance, after what seemed like a lifetime of nothingness and wooden spoons.
I can understand it I suppose but the difference between our final against Melbourne and yours, was that we jumped them at the start, then held them at bay, whilst you guys got lucky because they were undisciplined and useless.
I do hope we play Carlton in the GF, as you are clearly the lesser of the remaining teams.