Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 5 Gather Round - Pies v Saints Sun April 16th 4:50pm AEST (AO)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Pies by a goal or less

    Votes: 3 4.2%
  • Saints by a goal or less

    Votes: 5 6.9%
  • Pies by 7 - 20

    Votes: 21 29.2%
  • Saints by 7 - 20

    Votes: 20 27.8%
  • Pies by a lot

    Votes: 14 19.4%
  • Saints by a lot

    Votes: 6 8.3%
  • Draw

    Votes: 3 4.2%

  • Total voters
    72
  • Poll closed .

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No offence to them, they’re a terrific team, with a great and deep midfield, but they’d have to have one of the least scary forward lines in the comp. Those 3 you mentioned have kicked 3, 9 and 4 goals respectively for the year.

So between the 3 of them they’re averaging 5.3 goals a game. Even Zaine Cordy has kicked more goals than McStay, and he’s IMO clearly the weak-link in our team.

Ash Johnson is averaging a goal a game, while Hill has kicked 7 from 4.

They look to be their 5 main “forwards” and between the 5 of them, they’re averaging 6.75 goals a game. Despite playing in a forward line where the ball is moving in there fast and often.

Mihochek is the most dangerous of them on recent form and Wilkie is as good an option for him as anyone in the comp.

And yet that least scary forward line has helped us to kick the second highest score in the league this season against 3 of last seasons finalists....
I agree your backs will work hard (it is a Lyon gameplan after all) but surely our no name forwards deserve even a modicum of respect?
In fact I'd say one of the reasons that the Saints have been so successful in 2023 is because they're playing a similar "no name forward line" where everybody works for everybody else rather than simply relying on King and Membry as they have in recent years.
 
Last time we played the Pies Lipinski was BOG. I believe his omission is being overlooked. Both teams have some significant outs. Steele is a massive out for the Saints. It’s going to be a very hard fought game IMO.

I suspect it will come down to how well the Saints defensive press holds up verse the Pies ability to get through the press without turning it over.

The Saints game is built on turnovers, Pies seem to heavily rely on getting through the press and running ahead of play - which could be very dangerous. High risk reward especially against the Saints who have proven to pressure the ball carrier like no other team thus far.
Like many have mentioned, how the ground holds up will play a big part. I think a boggy wet ground favours pies with Steele out of saints lineup.
 

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St Kilda by 50 points

No ruck will be Collingwood's undoing, they should not have traded Grundy!!!
So we should've held onto a 900k a year player as a backup?

Grundy was healed up by finals last year and couldn't get back in the side because of how well Cameron and Cox were doing in the ruck and around the ground.
 
Like many have mentioned, how the ground holds up will play a big part. I think a boggy wet ground favours pies with Steele out of saints lineup.
Steele out is massive. The boggy wet ground may bring Saints small forwards into the game though. Saints are ranked second last for efficiency inside 50 which to the eye is due to constantly getting out marked in their forward line. A wet ball munged inside 50 to Higgins, Butler, etc could provide dividends.
 
I agree with McStay but I also think you miss how dangerous Elliot is when he gets going.
I would probably put Elliot as their most damaging forward and the match up is a hard one for us, who do we go with if Wilkie is on Mihochek because I don't think Battle is quite good enough to nullify Elliot.
I would have thought Paton is our most ideal option for Elliott, with Webster out. Has the speed required and at 187cm is almost half-a-foot taller than him, plus he has an excellent leap, so ought to be competitive in the air. I do realise that Elliott is very capable and dangerous though. Just hasn’t hit the scoreboard so far this year. Perhaps he will this week.
 

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I am one of his biggest detractors but his last two games have been sensational. Back to his pre contract at the pies best.
Against Bailey Williams and Peter Ladhams, VFL level ruckman at best.
When up against Oscar McInerney, he was putrid. Big test this week against Draper.
 
FB: Murphy Frampton Quaynor
CB: Noble Moore N Daicos
C: J Daicos Pendles WHE
CF: Adams McStay Hill
FF: Elliott Checkers Ginny
R: Johnson Mitchell JDG
INT: McCreery Side Bianco ?
Sub: Ed Allan
Not too sure on that last spot on int.
Was thinking of Will Kelly or carmicheal.
Johnson to do most of the rucking and as back up maybe kelly or frampton
 
be a close match but pies to be too good at the end they need to organise them selves and if they do and start to click then its pies by say 3 goals
 
Is Ginnivan going to play or not? I keep hearing different stories.

He might be playing in the ruck for them, he could sit on a teammate's shoulders.

I can't help thinking that the pressure is now on Collingwood!

They have more to lose than us, if they lose their premiership favourites tag takes a big hit but if we lose it doesn't mean much as most people expect it
 

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Autopsy AFL 2023 Round 5 Gather Round - Pies v Saints Sun April 16th 4:50pm AEST (AO)

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