Autopsy AFL 2024 Preliminary Final - Cats v Lions Sat Sept 21st 5:15pm EST (MCG)

Who will win and by how much?

  • Cats by a goal or less

    Votes: 11 4.9%
  • Lions by a goal or less

    Votes: 11 4.9%
  • Cats by 7 - 20

    Votes: 48 21.5%
  • Lions by 7 - 20

    Votes: 82 36.8%
  • Cats by a lot

    Votes: 54 24.2%
  • Lions by a lot

    Votes: 13 5.8%
  • Draw

    Votes: 4 1.8%

  • Total voters
    223
  • Poll closed .

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I find that a bit hard to believe

I’m disappointed, any team’s fans are when they lose, but I’m not going to tear my hair out over it. We were never expected to get this far, we gave it a great crack, and were beaten by a better side, and dozens of neutrals seem to be celebrating like their own teams have just won a flag
 

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Cats fans overly confident then claims Brisbane best is the best of any team 😂.

Yeah I was gonna say, if anyone knows Prelim heartbreak, it’s us.
If there’s any confidence it’s that Cats were in this position two years ago at the same venue against the same opponent and won by 71 points.

The difference is Cats will go in this time as the side with more Finals inexperience from the majority of the squad (only the old fellas bump up the numbers)
Many of the Cats boys played their first AFL Final against Port (seemed to work out well lol)
Majority of the Lions squad have been here again and again and again now. They’re on the fringe of taking that last step to winning the big one with this group. Cats on the other hand have gone to the mountaintop so I guess the pressure on this group isn’t really implied? If they snag a GF, it’ll be a complete shock to most people who didn’t even have them making the 8 in preseason.

If Lions can get on top in clearances, kick accurately (my gosh they anre abysmal in front of goal for long stretches) and ironically from the opposite from previous encounters and “bully” the more inexperienced Cats players into play kick mark uncontested footy they like to play, they can control the course of the game and keep it on their terms.

Cats are the number 1 ground ball team in the comp (Champion Data). The half forwards and small forwards (Stengle, Close, Miers, Dempsey, Mannagh) come up high to play extras at the stoppage so they have numbers advantage, once they win footy they then push it to forward as quick as possible by punch, kick, handball, run or whatever they can do to get it going forward to open spaces of grass and then let the elite forward line go to work.

Where Brisbane can stop them is if they can nullify that effect by not letting those blokes get goal side once the Cats win footy at contests.

If they let it happen, it’s all over. Cats will pile on goals.
But if Lions can maintain composure and control the play it’ll be hard to win the footy back from the more experienced bigger bodies.
 
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I believe Brisbane has had the best list every year since 2021. The last 4 years for nothing. Fagan is an ordinary coach. Stands on the sideline doing what exactly?
If Chris Scott is coach they’d have at least 1 flag by now
 
It is strange because you look at both sides and when choosing 'elite' players, it's as even as it gets.

However, if you listened to the media, Geelong is in the position they're in solely because of the coach.

They have a stronger midfield so I’d pick that group over ours because it full of star power with lots of class.

I’d pick our forward line 10 out of 10 times and twice on Sundays.

Back lines are pretty even between the two.

According to Champion Data: Lions win their games off their mids class and skill dragging them to victories (uncontested marks and clearances are their bread and butter)

Cats on the other hand win off their forward line playing manic chaos pressure footy (number 1 ground ball team in the comp, they like to play chaos footy more than anyone else)

It’s a clash of styles, gonna be a ripper.
 
It is strange because you look at both sides and when choosing 'elite' players, it's as even as it gets.

However, if you listened to the media, Geelong is in the position they're in solely because of the coach.
Because fans are just looking at disposal numbers and not many come up high for Cats. Holmes 24 touches are worth more than most 35, Danger 20 influential.

The forward line hasn’t had any credit. With Cameron and the smalls it’s almost unstoppable.
Miers and Stengle are elite players while Mannagh may almost be. Close very solid. Jeremy Cameron HOF.

The backline holds up well mainly due to great pressure up the ground.

I would be surprised to see Brisbane get within 4 goals.
 

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Because fans are just looking at disposal numbers and not many come up high for Cats. Holmes 24 touches are worth more than most 35, Danger 20 influential.

The forward line hasn’t had any credit. With Cameron and the smalls it’s almost unstoppable.
Miers and Stengle are elite players while Mannagh may almost be. Close very solid. Jeremy Cameron HOF.

The backline holds up well mainly due to great pressure up the ground.

I would be surprised to see Brisbane get within 4 goals.

Surely most footy fans see more than just the statistics though?

While I do agree with most of what you have said, I think this will be a very close game. Brisbane's scoring power alone is going to keep them right in it.
J.Henry did not have to do much at all in his last outing. Won't be the case this time.
If he plays as he has the past 6-7 weeks, players like Guthrie & Stewart have the luxury to patrol the back half and create for our mids.
I like the move of Blicavs to the back-line as well. Looks much better than where he was playing earlier in the season.
 
Surely most footy fans see more than just the statistics though?

While I do agree with most of what you have said, I think this will be a very close game. Brisbane's scoring power alone is going to keep them right in it.
J.Henry did not have to do much at all in his last outing. Won't be the case this time.
If he plays as he has the past 6-7 weeks, players like Guthrie & Stewart have the luxury to patrol the back half and create for our mids.
I like the move of Blicavs to the back-line as well. Looks much better than where he was playing earlier in the season.
That final looked nothing how a final should be. Open and free flowing Brisbane wanting uncontested marks. Geelong will be laughing they don’t have to play GWS
 
It is strange because you look at both sides and when choosing 'elite' players, it's as even as it gets.

However, if you listened to the media, Geelong is in the position they're in solely because of the coach.
Geelong have Bruhn, Bowes, Atkins playing massive midfield time. These are VFL level players.
 
It is strange because you look at both sides and when choosing 'elite' players, it's as even as it gets.

However, if you listened to the media, Geelong is in the position they're in solely because of the coach.

That’s not true at all, they’re also in this position because of a generous fixture
 
Yeah, kind of just odd to point out fixture. We beat a few teams, we lost to a few teams.

They refer to me as a great footy mind on the Brisbane board so just getting some early week analysis out there
 

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Autopsy AFL 2024 Preliminary Final - Cats v Lions Sat Sept 21st 5:15pm EST (MCG)

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