Autopsy AFL 2024 Second Semi Final - Port v Hawks Fri Sept 13th 7:40pm EST/7:10pm CST (AO) Teams in OP

[Kavliaris69]

Hawthorn supporters adding a reference to missing players doesn't suddenly earn them underdog status.

The emergence of Dear has made the Sam/Jordy hybrid at full forward redundant. You can argue he'd replace Chol but prior to last week Chol had been good. Otherwise, the Mozzy fleet suits Hawthorn perfectly and is also tailor made for finals footy. Mitch Lewis isn't a big miss.

The Snowman has been in good stopping form but he would likely just be taking an impotent gorilla in Dixon. One that 38 year old wingman Blicavs handled just fine last week. It would be a different story if Hawthorn were taking on Geelong or GWS' marking forwards.

Day is a big miss but the Hawks midfield have proven superb and dominant without him. If they could boss Footscray's midfield, they can do the same to the one Geelong torched after being called the worst midfield in the comp all season.

Whereas if we now look at Port, removing their gun back flankers has made their slingshot game and ball movement completely stagnant. Devoid of class or incision.

Butters obviously didn't like receiving a knock last week, what happens if he cops another one? Question marks are there for him now.

Port's home ground advantage is diluted, as the relationship with Hinkley is off. They go quiet or turn on the team rather quickly. If Hawthorn get a hot start and Watson is handed a broomstick in the first quarter, the crowd could turn.

Port are can pull it off but make no mistake, it would be: a) a backs to the wall win and b) an upset. It's pointless pretending otherwise.

Excellent post.

 

[Elixuh]

I found SSSSSS Delisted and Xtreme ! Nice ride guys

 

[joe444]

Even with the inexplicable selections by Port, they will still win. But they'll probably persist with this insanely imbalanced forward line next week and get torched.

Port is comfortably better than Hokthorn, and they'll do enough to win tonight. Just to prolong the purgatory they find themselves in. Cos Port always do just enough to stay broKEN.

 

[Hawkk]

Even with the inexplicable selections by Port, they will still win. But they'll probably persist with this insanely imbalanced forward line next week and get torched.

Port is comfortably better than Hokthorn, and they'll do enough to win tonight. Just to prolong the purgatory they find themselves in. Cos Port always do just enough to stay broKEN.

Is that more a hope and prayer? It’s okay, I would be quite touchy too. But that’s neither here nor there…

I think Port will win too - but they are most certainly not ‘comfortably better’ on demonstrated performance.

Port finished a deserved 2nd with 16 wins and a 114%. Hawthorn finished with 14 wins and a 118%. The gap between 2nd and 7th is the closest it’s been since 1993 with the majority of teams clustered around a 110-125%



One of the red flags for Hawthorn is its away record (6-6), with the only two wins outside Victoria and Tasmania coming against a cooked Adelaide and West Coast - although they did lose the Port and GWS (albeit in Canberra) matches in almost identical fashion two months apart. Ironically both losses are probably two of the Hawks most impressive performances. But I digress…

If you look at both teams squiggle position, they have both come from the left and sit in realistic contention for flags too.



But this undersells how similar both teams trajectory is. Prior to the start of the finals both teams were in almost identical position - Hawthorn surged upward and to the right whilst Port dipped back out of the zone.

It’s a bit stupid to judge Port on the Qualifying Final last week - because their form over the preceding six weeks was definitely in the window. That said, injury and suspension have ravaged their half back line - with their longer injury probably quite definitive in such a tight contest between two relatively evenly matched teams

 

[hawkman]

Just remember if we do lose tonight, you should be all thanking Hawthorn for ensuring another year of Ken

 

[random260]

If Ken hinkley wins its his best ever win.

It's really his Winston Churchill moment. His finest hour per say.

Back against the wall. Job on the line. How can one even contemplate sacking Winston churchil after his speech

 

[joe444]

Is that more a hope and prayer? It’s okay, I would be quite touchy too. But that’s neither here nor there…

Nah, I'm a Geelong supporter, and I'm not even filtering my views through anti-Hawk bias. I am super-impressed with what Hawthorn have done. And I have felt Port are overrated all year.

As much as anything, I can't disagree with history. Every year we go through the same situation where the QF losers are doubted, and most of the time it gets flipped back. I think it will be close, partly due to Port's inexplicable selections.

I expect Hawthorn's traveling fans to give their side a well-deserved standing O as they leave the field, but I'm pretty sure they leave with an eye on next year, not next week.

 

[Papa G]

If Ken hinkley wins its his best ever win.

It's really his Winston Churchill moment. His finest hour per say.

Back against the wall. Job on the line. How can one even contemplate sacking Winston churchil after his speech

Lol. If Hinkley was in charge of the UK back then he'd have to learn how to say cheese toastie in German pretty quickly.

 

[Hawkk]

Nah, I'm a Geelong supporter, and I'm not even filtering my views through anti-Hawk bias. I am super-impressed with what Hawthorn have done. And I have felt Port are overrated all year.

As much as anything, I can't disagree with history. Every year we go through the same situation where the QF losers are doubted, and most of the time it gets flipped back. I think it will be close, partly due to Port's inexplicable selections.

I expect Hawthorn's traveling fans to give their side a well-deserved standing O as they leave the field, but I'm pretty sure they leave with an eye on next year, not next week.

I don’t disagree but that QF lose / SF win / PF lose formula has been blown out of the water since the introduction of the post season bye.

Since 2016, there been a straight sets loss in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023 - now the EF winner has a 37.5% chance of victory in the away SF. Where as in the 15 years leading up to the bye it was almost unthinkable.

That said, there is a hell of a lot of similarities between the 2017 Cats and Swans and 2024 Power and Hawks. And that ended in the underseige QF loser finding a way to win the SF comfortably

 

[joe444]

I don’t disagree but that QF lose / SF win / PF lose formula has been blown out of the water since the introduction of the post season bye.

Since 2016, there been a straight sets loss in 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023 - now the EF winner has a 37.5% chance of victory in the away SF. Where as in the 15 years leading up to the bye it was almost unthinkable.

That said, there is a hell of a lot of similarities between the 2017 Cats and Swans and 2024 Power and Hawks. And that ended in the underseige QF loser finding a way to win the SF comfortably

Perhaps that's what is distorting my thinking. Geelong have the dubious record of many meritorious semi-final "statements" having lost in the first week.
2013- defeating Port after that final at KP.
Plus 2019, plus plus 2020, plus 2021. Sheesh.

 

[Hawkk]

Perhaps that's what is distorting my thinking. Geelong have the dubious record of many meritorious semi-final "statements" having lost in the first week.
2013- defeating Port after that final at KP.
Plus 2019, plus plus 2020, plus 2021. Sheesh.

Whereas we straight setted in 2016 and 2018! And 2018 is almost a complete roll reversal for us

 

[jakson68]

I found SSSSSS Delisted and Xtreme ! Nice ride guys

Well there is one car that will be missing some parts come morning.

 

[Pappagallo]

We’re getting done tonight and by heaps. The Hawks have undeniable momentum atm and we have nothing but pressure from all angles. All our recent finals have shown that our plan doesn’t stack up when the whips are cracking and there’s no genuine back up plan. We’re finished and hopefully Ken is too.

 

[Cam Payne]

Hawks by 12 and Ken to be announced WC coach by Monday.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Everybody is writing off Dixon, but he has torn us to shreds before.

They'll bank on the tall forward line being too much for our backs to handle.

Bring the ball to ground enough and we could be lethal on the rebound though.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Port at home, backs against the wall, breathing fire from the first bounce after a week of being kicked.

It’s a big ask for the Hawks. People forget how good Port were going prior to week one of finals.

 

[yeahmate]

Ken saying see you next week to the journos is a bit disrepectul to Hawks. Could be the added motivation they need to pull this one off

 

[SC_Power]

Ken saying see you next week to the journos is a bit disrepectul to Hawks. Could be the added motivation they need to pull this one off

Actually only the Hawks would NOT be offended right?

 

[SC_Power]

Hearing late mail
Dixon out, D Williams in

 

[hawkinoz]

Horror has been invited on Power, time to slay

 

[Pappagallo]

Ken saying see you next week to the journos is a bit disrepectul to Hawks. Could be the added motivation they need to pull this one off

Ken meant that he will still be coach no matter what happens with the game. He has a contract remember and that means he can’t be sacked and anyone who says otherwise is uneducated apparently.

He hasn’t got the balls to dis an opponent and if anything he constantly cups their balls in an attempt to give himself an out when it all goes to poo.

 

[Monco Matt]

Can't see Port getting within 30 points of Hawthorn, even if Port give 100% effort they'll still conceed an extra goal or two a quarter. Most likely an 8 to 10 goal win for Hawthorn. Port have lost too much of their run and carry game with players missing and up forward there is no way Dixon can stand up and Marshall is no threat. Only immense hubris from the Hawks players can undo them, they would have to switch off significantly.

 

[L_W_P]

Surely Esava is heading to the backline tonight?

No way you play 4 tall forwards against the Hawks. If you don't mark every entry they will run you ragged!

 

[Cleansweep17]

I reckon it’ll be a closer game than people think. Port will be disgusted in their effort last game but I still think Hawks get it done by 3 goals and some change.

 

[Jim Prideaux]

Rumours on SEN that Butters is a late withdrawal, any port fans hearing this?