Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2023

[Lore]

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Spoiler: LIVE DRAFT ORDER (2023 Draft Order)

 

[ant555]

If your the eagles list manager

What picks would you need to trade him taking into account hes said nothing to you yet

His only query is if he can be an up and back midfielder for a full game. Does he need to be? Probably not anyway

He will be given the keys to the number 1 striker role very early on at most clubs

You want two in the top 10 with one in the top 5 . Or something top 5 and a future first plus maybe a second this year.
My concern was he only had real form fending off kids half his strength but his game on the weekend showed he will adapt pretty quickly.
Forward 70% midfield30%. Can also play half back if you want.
I suppose Melbourne could be an outside chance if they offered 4 17 23 . Not sure many could come close to 3 picks inside 25 and that would give WC 4 17 19 23 or there about with the bids. That would put Curtin in range for their first pick

 

[jdstorm]

If your the eagles list manager

What picks would you need to trade him taking into account hes said nothing to you yet

His only query is if he can be an up and back midfielder for a full game. Does he need to be? Probably not anyway

He will be given the keys to the number 1 striker role very early on at most clubs

Given how much of a sure thing he seems to be and how keen other teams seem to be to bid for him.

I’d at minimum want 1x top 5 pick, 1x top 8 pick (10 when including academy picks) and another mid to late first or young player with potential.

Giving up a shore thing star for 2x chance at a star and a chance at a decent best 22 player seems fair

 

[eth-dog]

Given how much of a sure thing he seems to be and how keen other teams seem to be to bid for him.

I’d at minimum want 1x top 5 pick, 1x top 8 pick (10 when including academy picks) and another mid to late first or young player with potential.

Giving up a shore thing star for 2x chance at a star and a chance at a decent best 22 player seems fair

**** me dead, not this shit again.

There is no such thing. It's a draft. It's still a gamble. Is Reid the best player of this draft this year? Yes. Does that mean he's going to end up a star? Not necessarily. He might get plagued by injuries or find out his game doesn't work against men.

There are only TWO legitimate number 1 draft picks that have ended up the best players of their draft. Nick Riewoldt and Brendan Goddard.

We hear that this #1 pick is gonna be a superstar every year. The greatest draftee in the history of football. Can people stop with the bullshit hyperbole?

 

[Inspecta Gadget]

 

[MarkJohnson#1]

* me dead, not this s**t again.

There is no such thing. It's a draft. It's still a gamble. Is Reid the best player of this draft this year? Yes. Does that mean he's going to end up a star? Not necessarily. He might get plagued by injuries or find out his game doesn't work against men.

There are only TWO legitimate number 1 draft picks that have ended up the best players of their draft. Nick Riewoldt and Brendan Goddard.

We hear that this #1 pick is gonna be a superstar every year. The greatest draftee in the history of football. Can people stop with the bullshit hyperbole?

How many number 1 picks have completely failed in comparison to other picks in the draft?

 

[eth-dog]

How many number 1 picks have completely failed in comparison to other picks in the draft?

Why is that relevant? We aren't arguing about whether or not he'll fail.

 

[Milanista28]

A lot of people would've picked him at 1 last year as an under-ager, considering how good Ashcroft, Sheezel, Wardlaw etc have looked it's a pretty compelling case as to why he's rated so highly.

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Can anyone tell me what Darcy Wilson is like? Will he be a suitable pick in our draft range?
I like what Cal Twomey says about him (can mark kicks goals )

He has genuine speed and endurance, has a spring in the air, takes marks inside 50 and hits the scoreboard

 

[Keystone agony]

Can anyone tell me what Darcy Wilson is like? Will he be a suitable pick in our draft range?
I like what Cal Twomey says about him (can mark kicks goals )

He has genuine speed and endurance, has a spring in the air, takes marks inside 50 and hits the scoreboard

I think

Reid

Duursma
Caddy
Mckercher
Sanders
Curtain

C.Osullivan

N.Watson
O.Murphy
D.Wilson

Think Archer Reid could be coming with a rush aswell

But there my tiers right now

Hes a really balanced midfielder, good st everything maybe master of none type. Although his endurance running i think is elite. His versatility hurt him a bit in the champs

If Richmond beat Stkilda this week then id say we get pick 6 pre any additions ahead of us. We just take whoever of those top 6 is left over i feel, even if Curtain (As much as id prefer not to, my hope is too many clubs ahead of us need KPDs). If we end with the current pick 7 then we probably decide between Watson and Wilson if all the top 6 are gone

 

[jdstorm]

* me dead, not this s**t again.

There is no such thing. It's a draft. It's still a gamble. Is Reid the best player of this draft this year? Yes. Does that mean he's going to end up a star? Not necessarily. He might get plagued by injuries or find out his game doesn't work against men.

There are only TWO legitimate number 1 draft picks that have ended up the best players of their draft. Nick Riewoldt and Brendan Goddard.

We hear that this #1 pick is gonna be a superstar every year. The greatest draftee in the history of football. Can people stop with the bullshit hyperbole?

The gamble has reduced in recent years with better junior pathways and analytics on those games.

Injuries could happen to any player at any moment on the field or away from it. But for the most part the highest rated midfielders tend to turn into elite AFL players.

Ashcroft was clearly the top rated player.

Daicos went 4th and talk about him was so strong he was a golden child/chosen one type fulfiller of prophesies.

You’re betting on a likely outcome and Reid is considered the most likely to succeed. When you have crown jewel type assets you can charge prices that don’t make sense compared to market value and let’s not kid ourselves there are a lot of teams who want to make a ridiculous offer.

 

[eth-dog]

The gamble has reduced in recent years with better junior pathways and analytics on those games.

Injuries could happen to any player at any moment on the field or away from it. But for the most part the highest rated midfielders tend to turn into elite AFL players.

Ashcroft was clearly the top rated player.

Daicos went 4th and talk about him was so strong he was a golden child/chosen one type fulfiller of prophesies.

You’re betting on a likely outcome and Reid is considered the most likely to succeed. When you have crown jewel type assets you can charge prices that don’t make sense compared to market value and let’s not kid ourselves there are a lot of teams who want to make a ridiculous offer.

Of course it's less of a gamble but you aren't guaranteed a superstar with pick 1. Ever. Which is literally what you said he was.

 

[ant555]

Listening to Cal on gettable discussing Parish and he said still likely to stay but clubs are in a wait and see as it has been 7 or 8 weeks of discussion. Also finished with a little ramble where he obviously reads footy forums as he described some of the discussion about his kicking issues as rubbish .

 

[Yoda_]

Can anyone tell me what Darcy Wilson is like? Will he be a suitable pick in our draft range?
I like what Cal Twomey says about him (can mark kicks goals )

He has genuine speed and endurance, has a spring in the air, takes marks inside 50 and hits the scoreboard

I brought him up a few weeks ago now. Seems to be exactly the type of player we ( I ) would be looking for in the draft.

 

[eDPS]

Listening to Cal on gettable discussing Parish and he said still likely to stay but clubs are in a wait and see as it has been 7 or 8 weeks of discussion. Also finished with a little ramble where he obviously reads footy forums as he described some of the discussion about his kicking issues as rubbish .

Cal has always been fairly biased towards Parish

 

[Vindicater]

After delisting McBride are we allowed to just rookie the best NGA kid who slips through?

Is it worth it?

 

[eth-dog]

After delisting McBride are we allowed to just rookie the best NGA kid who slips through?

Is it worth it?

Yes and yes. Free hit at a list spot.

 

[Snake Charmer]

You want two in the top 10 with one in the top 5 . Or something top 5 and a future first plus maybe a second this year.
My concern was he only had real form fending off kids half his strength but his game on the weekend showed he will adapt pretty quickly.
Forward 70% midfield30%. Can also play half back if you want.
I suppose Melbourne could be an outside chance if they offered 4 17 23 . Not sure many could come close to 3 picks inside 25 and that would give WC 4 17 19 23 or there about with the bids. That would put Curtin in range for their first pick

Reid played a game for his home club in the country a week before and had about 10 fend off and was bog by a mile. He’s a very special talent

After delisting McBride are we allowed to just rookie the best NGA kid who slips through?

Is it worth it?

Yep. Munkara is exactly that

 

[ant555]

Yes and yes. Free hit at a list spot.

Did you send the question to Cal ?

 

[doug85]

Did you send the question to Cal ?

Was thinking the same thing!

 

[faible]

The gamble has reduced in recent years with better junior pathways and analytics on those games.

Injuries could happen to any player at any moment on the field or away from it. But for the most part the highest rated midfielders tend to turn into elite AFL players.

Ashcroft was clearly the top rated player.

Daicos went 4th and talk about him was so strong he was a golden child/chosen one type fulfiller of prophesies.

You’re betting on a likely outcome and Reid is considered the most likely to succeed. When you have crown jewel type assets you can charge prices that don’t make sense compared to market value and let’s not kid ourselves there are a lot of teams who want to make a ridiculous offer.

Reid could also have repeated injury issues and never be more than potential. There's risk with every player. For a team that is more than one star player away from contending there's a reasonable argument to be made that getting a number of high-end selections instead of a single one is the better pathway to being competitive.

 

[Cup_o_Jobe]

If Richmond beat Stkilda this week then id say we get pick 6 pre any additions ahead of us. We just take whoever of those top 6 is left over i feel, even if Curtain (As much as id prefer not to, my hope is too many clubs ahead of us need KPDs). If we end with the current pick 7 then we probably decide between Watson and Wilson if all the top 6 are gone

This all made sense to me up until the assumption we'll have a decent top 10 pick. I've come to rely on the adage "WTMEO" or "What's the most Essington Outcome?"

For mine, it's not quietly finishing 12th/13th as our season fizzles away. It's stumbling across the line against Norf, somehow pulling off Herculean, "This Is The New Essendon, You Can Trust Them" dominant performances to beat GWS and the Pies, charging into the finals with a lot of buzz and belief, and then getting bundled out by ten-goals in week 1 to Carlton or Geelong.

So all to say: Archer Reid, come on down.

 

[doug85]

This all made sense to me up until the assumption we'll have a decent top 10 pick. I've come to rely on the adage "WTMEO" or "What's the most Essington Outcome?"

For mine, it's not quietly finishing 12th/13th as our season fizzles away. It's stumbling across the line against Norf, somehow pulling off Herculean, "This Is The New Essendon, You Can Trust Them" dominant performances to beat GWS and the Pies, charging into the finals with a lot of buzz and belief, and then getting bundled out by ten-goals in week 1 to Carlton or Geelong.

So all to say: Archer Reid, come on down.

The most essington outcome is we lose to norf. Beat GWS and the pies by a point because they’re resting players. Sneak into 8th with 12 wins but are completely beset by injuries going into the elimination final. We subsequently lose to Carlton by 94 points. We sack Scott and reappoint Hird. Vozzo is sacked by the board and Dodo becomes our CEO.

 

[jdstorm]

Reid could also have repeated injury issues and never be more than potential. There's risk with every player. For a team that is more than one star player away from contending there's a reasonable argument to be made that getting a number of high-end selections instead of a single one is the better pathway to being competitive.

Oh for sure. It’s basic math.

In the scenario where you get multiple picks you are far more likely to get a good outcome.

Say pick 1 gives you a 70% chance at a star and 20% chance at a good player and 10% other (injury, dickhead ect)*

While pick 5 might give you a 50% chance at a star, + pick in the 8-12 range a 30% chance and a late first 5% chance.

In scenario 2 you have a similar chance at a star but you also have a small chance at multiple stars and a very likely outcome of 3 chest 22 players.

If you are choosing to go for scenario 1 it’s about increasing your risk level due to either stability and a surplus of assets on a well run club** or stupidity and desperation.

300+ games of an elite high impact player is a very nice incentive to take that kind of risk

* I’m not sure the actual percentages but afl clubs would/should know them.

** list size being a limiting factor. If you already have 30 best 22 players and decent rookie prospects then it makes sense to overpay for premium picks

 

[faible]

** list size being a limiting factor. If you already have 30 best 22 players and decent rookie prospects then it makes sense to overpay for premium picks

This is a big one IMO, very rarely does a Pick #1 win a Premiership, and clubs finishing last usually have a dearth of genuine quality best-22 players, so are they actually better off trading Pick 1 for 2 good picks (say 1 x Top-5 and another late first) and adding what's likely to be two good players?

 

[andleanback]

* me dead, not this s**t again.

There is no such thing. It's a draft. It's still a gamble. Is Reid the best player of this draft this year? Yes. Does that mean he's going to end up a star? Not necessarily. He might get plagued by injuries or find out his game doesn't work against men.

There are only TWO legitimate number 1 draft picks that have ended up the best players of their draft. Nick Riewoldt and Brendan Goddard.

We hear that this #1 pick is gonna be a superstar every year. The greatest draftee in the history of football. Can people stop with the bullshit hyperbole?

Come on eth we’ve had this conversation a lot
No1 picks are usually very good players, of course they’re going to be talked up a stars. They’re the best of that draft class. But a lot of the time they’re the sure pick thing, who you know what you’re going to get and not high upside. The rowells, ashcrofts, walsh, Murphy, scully types - they win a heap of ball and can run all day and have dominated junior footy. It’s rarer for a kid like Harley to come through and be the clear stand out kid with his skillset, brute power, Great skills, athleticism and high up side (and in Harleys case add in great work ethic and leadership). I’d argue the 2 players that have come through like that at the pointy end of the draft have been petracca - would’ve been taken by every club except st Kilda who just had tunnel vision for a key forward and Dustin Martin, who may have gone higher if clubs just looked at football ability and not the whole package of a person. A player like Reid doesn’t come along every year and is different to a lot of the kids who are seen as the standout footballer of their draft year.