Recruiting AFL Draft Watch 2024 - What do we do, we don't have a top 10 pick?

[ant555]

I think the trick with trading those picks will be finding a 2 for 1 trade down.

It will be trading down about 10-20 spots for a future asset.

Like you’ve said Essendon don’t want to trade out because getting back in will be hard. What they do need is to not waste good picks on bid matching.

so it seems that splitting the pick into the future is the only logical move

I do not see it as wasting good picks.
If they do it fine but if they do not then we are still taking a first round selection plus two early third rounds.
There seems to just be an obsession with this years draft and some sort of idea that we will be able to trade in and out at will.
What Rosa needs to do is set up the best scenario for the next three drafts. They have managed to get this draft back to being a strong hand and also set up next year so we have a good hand.
There is no one logical move. The win for trading out 9 is the fact we now have a chance to get 3 top 50 picks this year plus have a decent set of picks next year. It gives us options.
Seems to be a lot of want my cake and eat it theory and no bigger picture stuff which has been an issue with us in the past.

 

[Sporno 4 Pyros]

Any academy or F/S gems coming through in the next few years?

James Hird Academy thread keeps you updated with this stuff.
Warning- it will give you high hopes for Bewicks kid who is still a number of years away.

Recruiting - James Hird Academy (Father/Son and Next Generation)

www.bigfooty.com

 

[faible]

Geelong isn’t an overly smart team to bet against.

On this, you’re not betting against them, you’re playing in two different currencies.

We’ve got Kako irrespective of what picks we use to match him with, it’s what other value we can get.

Is it better for us to use those current picks to match him, and have some selections in the 40s this year? Is it better to take an extra F1 in to next year and use those later picks to match Kako and just take some SSP / Rookies to fill out the list?

You assume worst case scenario, where you’ve got Geelong winning a Premiership, and you’ve still got 18 (wherever it slides to with f/s and academy picks) which is useful currency for draft or trade.

 

[IHurley]

Still think we may trade both the second rounders out.

Let's say we trade both out looking for a F1 or couple of F2s. Really bolster our 2025 war-chest.

A Kako bid comes at 13 (969 points) or later, we can match with: 40 (429), 46 (331), and 53 (233). If it comes earlier, we can use pick 54 as well. Not ideal but doable and hedges that risk (We can also just wait until pick 13 or later and do the the trades if no bid yet).

We then use the 2025 war-chest to trade back in to first or second round whenever we see someone we like/a willing trade partner, once the Kako bid comes in. We also can grab a slider late with pick 54 (which will come in some with all the bid matching), and have 65 in the back pocket to nab Ngyuen (either directly or by matching a late bid).

I just don't see the "value" of keeping 40/46/53 for direct picks versus using 28 and 31 (which will be very popular picks) to obtain overs in a draft night trade. I think we end up in a net better position trading those out and then jumping back in one or twice early and grabbing some cheapies late.

That makes the most sense but it will be sequential. Say there's no bid before 10, we will offload 31. Then offload 28 if no bid before 13. We will target clubs expecting to finish mid range as there's no reason for them to say no to offloading an F2. We can game this (ridiculous) system brilliantly but it requires patience.

 

[Keystone agony]

I think pick 18 tigers is the target with an F1

Hopefully a Matt Whitlock/Dattolli/Faull sneak inside that

Giving us access to either
Taj Hotton
Joe Berry
Lindsay
Jack Whitlock
Shanahan
Trainor (which would be worse case)

 

[mIKe9441]

Still think we may trade both the second rounders out.

Let's say we trade both out looking for a F1 or couple of F2s. Really bolster our 2025 war-chest.

A Kako bid comes at 13 (969 points) or later, we can match with: 40 (429), 46 (331), and 53 (233). If it comes earlier, we can use pick 54 as well. Not ideal but doable and hedges that risk (We can also just wait until pick 13 or later and do the the trades if no bid yet).

We then use the 2025 war-chest to trade back in to first or second round whenever we see someone we like/a willing trade partner, once the Kako bid comes in. We also can grab a slider late with pick 54 (which will come in some with all the bid matching), and have 65 in the back pocket to nab Ngyuen (either directly or by matching a late bid).

I just don't see the "value" of keeping 40/46/53 for direct picks versus using 28 and 31 (which will be very popular picks) to obtain overs in a draft night trade. I think we end up in a net better position trading those out and then jumping back in one or twice early and grabbing some cheapies late.

So basically we would need to draft 2 guys from trading back in from future picks, as we are looking to draft at least 4 players

 

[Hazardinho]

I’ve just had a look at the Richmond draft board and they’re doing hypothetical trade scenarios with us. I tell you what… they must have the most flogs and nuffies supporter base I’ve ever seen. Some of the things I was reading, is trading pick 28 and our future first rounder (Essendon’s one) for their pick 25, they wouldn’t accept a deal from us for pick 11 if we offered both our future first rounders, one poster asked if they would consider a future Essendon first and melb first for 20 and 25?
Honestly I’m actually praying for their downfall, I hope history repeats its self like when gws and Gold Coast had all those draft concessions and most of the players they selected were busts. It would be sensational if they mess up there draft hand and when tassie arrives, it sets them back more years.

 

[Keystone agony]

I’ve just had a look at the Richmond draft board and they’re doing hypothetical trade scenarios with us. I tell you what… they must have the most flogs and nuffies supporter base I’ve ever seen. Some of the things I was reading, is trading pick 28 and our future first rounder (Essendon’s one) for their pick 25, they wouldn’t accept a deal from us for pick 11 if we offered both our future first rounders, one poster asked if they would consider a future Essendon first and melb first for 20 and 25?
Honestly I’m actually praying for their downfall, I hope history repeats its self like when gws and Gold Coast had all those draft concessions and most of the players they selected were busts. It would be sensational if they mess up there draft hand and when tassie arrives, it sets them back more years.

To be fair you always have to pay more on draft night

Mid F1 and F2 got pick 14 a month ago

Twomey is talking about an F1 being required for the first pick of the 2nd round (Around pick 27-28) this year

Next year obviousily not seen as strong and diluted with a fair bit of academy/father sons ect. Also their is a strong array of Free Agents next year that would push the picks back again (ie LDU leaves then thats a pick back for everyone) ect. Meh who knows maybe another poor year from WCE or North that sees <5 wins get a compo pick in the 1st round

But yes they do seem a bit ridiuclous but its the old bias that we also see on this board. Everyone wants everything for nothing or wants to give nothing for everything and thinks its plausible. When in fact it just aint reality and if your not going to atleast be realistic then you need to consider yourself delusional

Also think people may end up a little carried away with this draft in the end. 12 months ago no one was talking about Tauru, Lindsay, Allen, Armstrong Whitlock x 2, Travaglia, Berry, Langford ect like they are now

But im even unsure if an F1 gets tigers pick 18

It also depends whos the one that initiates the call, the buyer has to overpay

 

[Hazardinho]

To be fair you always have to pay more on draft night

Mid F1 and F2 got pick 14 a month ago

Twomey is talking about an F1 being required for the first pick of the 2nd round (Around pick 27-28) this year

Next year obviousily not seen as strong and diluted with a fair bit of academy/father sons ect. Also their is a strong array of Free Agents next year that would push the picks back again (ie LDU leaves then thats a pick back for everyone) ect. Meh who knows maybe another poor year from WCE or North that sees <5 wins get a compo pick in the 1st round

But yes they do seem a bit ridiuclous but its the old bias that we also see on this board. Everyone wants everything for nothing or wants to give nothing for everything and thinks its plausible. When in fact it just aint reality and if your not going to atleast be realistic then you need to consider yourself delusional

The thing is we’re very likely to be a bottom 4 team next year, I don’t really think we had many injuries this year, Parish the main player and Ridley at the end of season when we were likely not making the 8. So our pick could be very high next along with Melbourne, and the top end of next years draft is already being talked about as being better than this year a year out.

If we trade our picks next year, for a pick this year it’s going down as the most one way deal to Richmond. I understand this draft is deep, but it’s not a super draft. It’s just unique for how much variety of prospects and evenness of the pool past the first 8-10 players.

I don’t feel comfortable trading a future first and second rounder minimum for a teens pick in this draft, when in 12 months time, I bet the draft will be very strong. If you look at the first rounders projected to go first round next year, it’s mainly interstate players and not many vic prospects. I’m willing to bet there will be a strong chance that quite a few vic prospects will appear out of nowhere and suddenly the draft will be extremely valuable.

The good thing is it’s being reported we’ll only trade our future first if it’s for a prospect in our top 10. The only players I think we’d potentially do it for are likely to be Smilie, to a stretch Armstrong and maybe Jobe/ Berry but I doubt it. Next year if we have 3 picks in the top 10 (Draper going to Adelaide), I feel our picks should be worth astronomical value based on the inflation clubs are putting on picks just for a teens pick.

 

[Keystone agony]

The thing is we’re very likely to be a bottom 4 team next year, I don’t really think we had many injuries this year, Parish the main player and Ridley at the end of season when we were likely not making the 8. So our pick could be very high next along with Melbourne, and the top end of next years draft is already being talked about as being better than this year a year out.

If we trade our picks next year, for a pick this year it’s going down as the most one way deal to Richmond. I understand this draft is deep, but it’s not a super draft. It’s just unique for how much variety of prospects and evenness of the pool past the first 8-10 players.

I don’t feel comfortable trading a future first and second rounder minimum for a teens pick in this draft, when in 12 months time, I bet the draft will be very strong. If you look at the first rounders projected to go first round next year, it’s mainly interstate players and not many vic prospects. I’m willing to bet there will be a strong chance that quite a few vic prospects will appear out of nowhere and suddenly the draft will be extremely valuable.

The good thing is it’s being reported we’ll only trade our future first if it’s for a prospect in our top 10. The only players I think we’d potentially do it for are likely to be Smilie, to a stretch Armstrong and maybe Jobe/ Berry but I doubt it. Next year if we have 3 picks in the top 10 (Draper going to Adelaide), I feel our picks should be worth astronomical value based on the inflation clubs are putting on picks just for a teens pick.

Personally think its all talk regarding trading our F1 for a top 8 player

Like no one inside the top 14 picks this year is probably taking just our F1 for. Then it would be unlikely our top 8 fall out of that 14

Really the first pick being talked about as genuinly being open is the tigers pick 18