AFL Futures 2012

[Veroldin]

12u richmond to miss the 8 @ 1.63

 

[Duritz]

I'd like to back the Crows to make the 8. They've got a really easy draw in the 2nd half of the year. I read they were $2.00 or so earlier, then people were waiting for better odds. Are the better odds available now? I'd like to have a big bet.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Who do you guys like for this 2012 winner market?

1) HAW, CAR, SYD, ESS, or RIC @ $1.95
2) COL, GEE, WCE, STK, or FRE to win $2.05

 

[Thedeftouch]

I'd like to back the Crows to make the 8. They've got a really easy draw in the 2nd half of the year. I read they were $2.00 or so earlier, then people were waiting for better odds. Are the better odds available now? I'd like to have a big bet.

Well they are 6-1, so no, their odds to make the 8 have not increased.

They are about $1.20 to make the 8, lulz

 

[Duritz]

They are about $1.20 to make the 8, lulz

Bloody hell... that's pretty short. Has all the $2.00 disappeared? Are you sure there's no $2.00 anywhere?

I was really looking to have a good go at the $2.00 you see, because I've been waiting to get on.

 

[Thedeftouch]

Bloody hell... that's pretty short. Has all the $2.00 disappeared? Are you sure there's no $2.00 anywhere?

I was really looking to have a good go at the $2.00 you see, because I've been waiting to get on.

Offering $2.00 on a Duritz ban by season's end.

 

[Duritz]

Offering $2.00 on a Duritz ban by season's end.

How much can I bet?

 

[The_Doctor]

If you believe Adelaide will fail to cover a line this weekend then you dont back them to finish top 8 at the same time. You hold off and wait for them to lose that match. By backing against them to cover the line you are conceding that you believe they will lose that match significantly so your perceived value of Adelaide finishing top 8 shouldnt drop should they lose that match if you are doing your own ratings.

 

[Duritz]

The other point that I think is lost in this, is one on punting philosophy: Are you best to identify overs when they exist and take them, or attempt to identify if they will get longer, and take them then? In horse racing, it pays to shop around, but the big difference is horse racing is one event, not 22 consecutive events after which the odds are constantly re-assessed, leading into finals. It's apples and oranges.

In sport, in this case betting final 8, or final 4, the probabilities change each week dependant on results. One week, you identify an over: Adelaide to make the 8 at $2.00. Do you try to 2nd guess the market, by saying, "If this happens and this happens, it'll be longer", taking a risk that you'll miss the boat, or do you lock in the overs.

In my opinion, when an overlay exists, you shop around for the best price you can find about it, and lock it in.

Let's use another example, from a different angle. Last week, I backed Collingwood for the top 4, at $3.50. I said that was overs, I had them something like $2.65 on memory. They were up against the Lions, where they start very short favourites. On the 2nd guessing theory, you might say, "If they win, they don't trim up much, because they are expected to win, but if they lose the odds will be much longer. Therefore, I'll wait until after this round. I have nothing to lose and perhaps longer odds to gain."

Well, they won, and now they're $2.75 for the 4. This trim up is partly because West Coast lost, and partly because Carlton lost. IE, some of the other competitors became a little less stable. However, it illustrates a point - a lot of the time you're best off to lock in the value when it exists. If you back overlays all the time, then if you're market is somewhere near right, you'll win. All the rest is "if, if, if".

 

[Crazy Snowman]

Mate, I apologize. You're right that the example I gave you didn't relate - I was using my phone on the train home and I tried to take a shortcut with my argument because my pudgy thumbs don't get along with the keys.

But Duritz is still right, and I'll give you a more appropriate example.

Say for argument's sake that 4 coins are going to be tossed and someone gives me $2.05 on it being heads. Good value, you would agree?

What if someone then gives you $6.00 on there being exactly three tails in those four coin flips? The probability of there being exactly 3 heads in 4 attempts is 25%, so $6.00 is also a good bet.

They're both over the odds and if I stake properly, over the long run I would profit from the situation.

Now relate it to this Adelaide thing. Even if the first coin is a tail and I lose my first bet, let's say that the person who gave me the second bet (on three tails - or my futures bet if you prefer to think of it that way) is silly enough to offer me $10 on the next three coin flips landing tails. The true probability is now 12.5%. It wouldn't have been over the odds before the first coin toss, but it is now (and we didn't know how the first toss was going to turn out anyway). If I wanted to, I could have another go because it's a good bet.

Also don't forget that it's not necessarily a case of one or the other. Both can win and you should only base your decisions on the current circumstances, not what you think will be the situation later on.

If you don't want to accept the mathematics Doc, then I can only assume you're arguing to save face. And in that case I hope I've helped you, but am more than willing to accept that you'd rather not admit it.

Mr. Casson, Just trying to get my head around your example, I'm thinking that the result of flipping exactly 3 tails out of 4 would be 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 1/16. (6.25%)

I understand the point you're making and agree, just struggling to work out the 25% probability.

Cheers, Frosty

 

[Duritz]

There's 4 ways that 3 tails can be tossed in four tosses. If the flips are A,B,C and D, then the tails can come up in -

ABC
ABD
ACD
BCD

Each of those combinations is, as you suggested, 6.25%, so 6.25 * 4 = 25%

 

[Crazy Snowman]

yep, that makes sense. Thanks for the response

 

[Thedeftouch]

In my opinion, when an overlay exists, you shop around for the best price you can find about it, and lock it in. .

This is correct. But seriously, get over it already.

 

[Duritz]

This is correct. But seriously, get over it already.

When it comes to arguing this point, you can trust that I'm over it.

 

[Duritz]

Hey guys just thought a reminder was in order for all you wise, sound sages out there: Adelaide have traversed there really tough period you all mentioned 3 weeks ago, and as a result should be way longer than the $2.00 they were before this.

Get set people, load up.

 

[Athomas]

Just go get back on topic:

Took Schulz for the Coleman @ 30 on Betfair. He's still $30 there. I don't think he will open up any longer than that at the bookies.

 

[Cuzz09]

Adelaide to make the GF.

What odds??

 

[half_back_flank]

Hey guys just thought a reminder was in order for all you wise, sound sages out there: Adelaide have traversed there really tough period you all mentioned 3 weeks ago, and as a result should be way longer than the $2.00 they were before this.

Get set people, load up.

You can't see the contradiction here?

You have a go at others for waiting for Adelaide to go through their "rough patch" however you then proceed to back against them. Twice.

 

[Chism]

Would be good to have some futures in the futures thread. Meh always next week the mods will start doing their job.

Closed for clean and standby as Cards are coming.

Relaxed approach does not seem to be working.

 

[Chism]

Re Open with a heap of crap removed and a few posters Infracted.

Don't even bother asking " Where did my post go" as some arguments and shit fighting went for over 3 pages.

Keep it clean.

 

[PrinceOfPenrith]

Hey what about the coleman is my man jeremy cameron a chance hes $251 with the tab and hes a gun what do you think

 

[Cuzz09]

Adelaide to make the GF.

What odds??

Oh cheers Cuzz

$3.25

 

[Borgsta]

Baking Adelaide to make the gf and Adelaide to not make the gf.
Either way at the end of the season i will remind everyone of one of these bets 50 times.

 

[anabac]

Hey what about the coleman is my man jeremy cameron a chance hes $251 with the tab and hes a gun what do you think

If you offered me $251 odds for him to finish top 10 in the coleman i still wouldn't waste $5 on it.


I am actually going to go and back Travis Cloke today at TAB. Paying $13 for the Coleman, he is actually one of the more accurate kicks in the AFL this year.

Goes without saying that Buddy is the one to beat, but after him i reckon its fairly open and $13 is a bit of value. He is only 1 goal behind Buddy so far this year, and with 2 of the next 3 games against GC and Melbourne respectively, im getting in now.

 

[X_box_X]

Money to be made here.

Betfair offering $2.46 on Freo to make the eight.
Sportsbet offering $1.78 on them to miss the eight.