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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
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I assume this award comes directly from AFL HQ? There isnt a panel of 'experts' is there? If thats the case if I was Heppell I wouldnt be building the trophy cabinet just yet ...
Panel of experts all give a 3,2,1 IIRC
From Wiki:
At the end of the season, nine AFL personalities (typically administrators and All-Australian team selectors) vote for five of the twenty-two nominees, with their top selections earning five votes, their second selection earning four votes, etc. The player who receives the most votes is the winner.
That sounds like it could have some AFL bias IMO.
asanque
Premium Platinum
Here is the selection panel from last year:
The NAB AFL Rising Star was voted by the All-Australian selection panel of Andrew Demetriou, Adrian Anderson, Mark Ricciuto, Kevin Bartlett, James Hird, Gerard Healy, Glen Jakovich, Robert Walls and Kevin Sheehan (Rising Star selector only).
http://aflpa.com.au/articleimage/dan-hannebery-wins-2010-nab-rising-star-award
The NAB AFL Rising Star was voted by the All-Australian selection panel of Andrew Demetriou, Adrian Anderson, Mark Ricciuto, Kevin Bartlett, James Hird, Gerard Healy, Glen Jakovich, Robert Walls and Kevin Sheehan (Rising Star selector only).
http://aflpa.com.au/articleimage/dan-hannebery-wins-2010-nab-rising-star-award
Im already on Smith but Im thinking of putting more on him as he should destroy Browne this week and thus shorten next week.
The experts seem to unanimously pick the same players in the same order. Generally they get it wrong. Joel Selwood was about the only correct choice in about the last ten years.
It's more of a Shooting Star Award than a Rising Star Award. Hannebery, Rich & Palmer have hardly set the world on fire since winning the thing.
I know for a fact that in 2010 one of the judges didn't even know whether a certain player was eligible 5 days away from the vote. He had to ask me
... on live radio in front of 1,000's
I would like to know if the panel of "experts" sit around a table discussing it or get sent the ballot papers in the mail. I suspect it's a panel with discussion because apart from Kevin Bartlett all the others put in identical votes. Presumably these guys (who keep voting the same way) keep getting a gig.
It's more of a Shooting Star Award than a Rising Star Award. Hannebery, Rich & Palmer have hardly set the world on fire since winning the thing.
I know for a fact that in 2010 one of the judges didn't even know whether a certain player was eligible 5 days away from the vote. He had to ask me
... on live radio in front of 1,000'sI would like to know if the panel of "experts" sit around a table discussing it or get sent the ballot papers in the mail. I suspect it's a panel with discussion because apart from Kevin Bartlett all the others put in identical votes. Presumably these guys (who keep voting the same way) keep getting a gig.
Isn't there normally a WA Bloke who always picks the best WC/Freo kid? Or did that stop with Chris Mainwaring's passing?The experts seem to unanimously pick the same players in the same order. Generally they get it wrong. Joel Selwood was about the only correct choice in about the last ten years.
It's more of a Shooting Star Award than a Rising Star Award. Hannebery, Rich & Palmer have hardly set the world on fire since winning the thing.
I know for a fact that in 2010 one of the judges didn't even know whether a certain player was eligible 5 days away from the vote. He had to ask me
I would like to know if the panel of "experts" sit around a table discussing it or get sent the ballot papers in the mail. I suspect it's a panel with discussion because apart from Kevin Bartlett all the others put in identical votes. Presumably these guys (who keep voting the same way) keep getting a gig.
Mainwaring voted for Polak (Frem) in 2003. He was the only one to put him #1 but everyone else had Polak in the top 3. The WA Judges haven't favoured the locals from the records I have. Rich (unanimous) & Palmer (8 out of 9 #1's) were different ie, everyone pretty much voted for them.
The strangest count was 2006
Here were the Rising Star Odds after R20 (24 August 2006)
M Murphy $2.40
D Pearce $3.00
A Raines $3.00
H Shaw $6.00
C Bartram $16.00
D Polo $26.00
M Rischitelli $26.00
J Surjan $34.00
M Moody $41.00
A Swallow $41.00
M Bate $51.00
T Chaplin $51.00
D Thomas $51.00
When the "experts" voted, everyone except Kevin Bartlett voted for Danyle Pearce. Bartlett voted for Heath Shaw. Also not one of the 10 experts put Murphy in their Top 3, despite the fact that he was the clear favorite.
The judges have clearly favored players who run with the ball. ie, look flashy
The voting in 2006 went ...
D Pearce 43
A Raines 33
H Shaw 32
M Murphy 13
C Bartram 7
G Birchall 5
D Thomas 1
M Rischitelli 1
This is typical of the voting pattern and a big reason for Heppell being so short. Rich fitted the bill so well in 2009 that the Bookies paid out early.
Hannebery was a second year player and so is Shuey. If you wanted to get technical, Shuey could be classed as a third year player having been picked up in the 2008 draft.
I don't rate the Award at all. The Rising Star winners don't turn into Rising Stars. They could call it a Best First Year player Award but it's not that either really. It is heavily slanted towards mid-fielders in weak teams.
In the 2009 All-Australian team, about half that side didn't even get a weekly nomination for the award.
i deleted my comment because i misinterpreted your initial post
Every afl award is a joke these days
i don't know what you want from the award, generally the best kids are from shit teams, it takes longer for KPP to develop so rarely will they be in contention for it. It is also harder to break into a top 8 side and get a role which will see you play a big part in your teams success.
I think it should be reserved for first year players, or atleast not have played an AFL match prior to the season, i don't think it is rigged though which you are suggesting it is
Every afl award is a joke these days
i don't know what you want from the award, generally the best kids are from shit teams, it takes longer for KPP to develop so rarely will they be in contention for it. It is also harder to break into a top 8 side and get a role which will see you play a big part in your teams success.
I think it should be reserved for first year players, or atleast not have played an AFL match prior to the season, i don't think it is rigged though which you are suggesting it is
I don't think it's rigged ie, the bookies saying "There's been an avalanche of money for "X" so could you please vote for "Y". I've been in situations where a room full of people are thinking one thing or are a bit unsure ... an "important" person stands up and says something ... and then the room full of people think ... "yeah, that's what I think" and unanimously agree with them.
If the Rising Star is a panel discussion and Andrew Demetriou is the first to speak the whole thing is just about a sealed deal I would think. The Rising Star isn't comparable to the Brownlow in terms of being an even playing field betting wise.
Brad Hardie on 6PR Perth, stated openly that he backed Hannebery @$26.00 for the Rising Star, early in 2010; Karl Langdon backed someone else. They share a microphone one day a week with Glen Jakovich who is a selector (they did last year anyway). I'm not say they could influence his vote but with ten selectors it wouldn't be hard to work out what they think of certain players given most seem to have media jobs.
If the Rising Star is a panel discussion and Andrew Demetriou is the first to speak the whole thing is just about a sealed deal I would think. The Rising Star isn't comparable to the Brownlow in terms of being an even playing field betting wise.
Brad Hardie on 6PR Perth, stated openly that he backed Hannebery @$26.00 for the Rising Star, early in 2010; Karl Langdon backed someone else. They share a microphone one day a week with Glen Jakovich who is a selector (they did last year anyway). I'm not say they could influence his vote but with ten selectors it wouldn't be hard to work out what they think of certain players given most seem to have media jobs.
Hanneberry was 26/1 after his nomination game last year where he looked extremely good, i am sure heaps took the 26s
- Mar 23, 2009
- 5,296
- 4,946
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- San Antonio Spurs
I would advise not to bet on the Rising Star Award at this stage. You'll have a better idea in about 6 weeks and the odds might still be similar. But considering the way it's voted for I generally mark it as a no bet market. It all seems a bit fishy.
I agree, it should be changed to best first year player, having Shuey eligible is stupid.
I agree, it should be changed to best first year player, having Shuey eligible is stupid.
- Mar 23, 2009
- 5,296
- 4,946
- AFL Club
- Richmond
- Other Teams
- San Antonio Spurs
It's really tough to tell who is going to make the top 8, some interesting odds.
I'm not confident so normally I would stay out but I am already heavily invested with a few teams that I backed early in the year: I backed Sydney at avg odds of $2.1, North at avg odds of $3.4 and I have layed Melb $1.9ish.
I'm thinking about getting off Sydney? They should either win 2 or 3 games from here on in and if they win 2 they won't make it. Game this week seems a 50/50 if they lose it they are just about gone.
Remaining mildly conifdent that Melbourne will miss, they probably need to win 4 of their next 7, some tough games coming up. Think I will ride that one out?
Freo at $3 is interesting given they have 6 points head start over 9th and don't have any more byes. They have a tough draw but they are a decent side and may only need to win 2 games from here to make it. $3??
St Kilda are in the reverse situation. They're 6 points behind but have a softish draw. I think they are playing well and are probably the best team between 6th and 12th but $1.45 is too short.
Ess has some tough games incl a bye I feel they might need to win 3 more. Will probably miss the 8 imo.
I reckon North are a pretty decent team, they will need to win 4 of their last 6 but could pull it off.
Thoughts anyone?
I'm not confident so normally I would stay out but I am already heavily invested with a few teams that I backed early in the year: I backed Sydney at avg odds of $2.1, North at avg odds of $3.4 and I have layed Melb $1.9ish.
I'm thinking about getting off Sydney? They should either win 2 or 3 games from here on in and if they win 2 they won't make it. Game this week seems a 50/50 if they lose it they are just about gone.
Remaining mildly conifdent that Melbourne will miss, they probably need to win 4 of their next 7, some tough games coming up. Think I will ride that one out?
Freo at $3 is interesting given they have 6 points head start over 9th and don't have any more byes. They have a tough draw but they are a decent side and may only need to win 2 games from here to make it. $3??
St Kilda are in the reverse situation. They're 6 points behind but have a softish draw. I think they are playing well and are probably the best team between 6th and 12th but $1.45 is too short.
Ess has some tough games incl a bye I feel they might need to win 3 more. Will probably miss the 8 imo.
I reckon North are a pretty decent team, they will need to win 4 of their last 6 but could pull it off.
Thoughts anyone?
I think Freo, Saints & Sydney will take the last 3 spots. If freo can win the derby this week they will cement their place. Essendon & North have a tough draw and could only win 1-2 more games each for the season. Melbourne are shit im not even going to look at their draw, they cant make it.
Melb @ $1.48 not to make TOP 8 looks fantastic value for a heavy lay..
Play Hawthorn + Geelong next 2 weeks, price will surely come in after 2 defeats + can look laying after that if concerned at all with em actually pulling some consistent form out!!
Play Hawthorn + Geelong next 2 weeks, price will surely come in after 2 defeats + can look laying after that if concerned at all with em actually pulling some consistent form out!!
Melb @ $1.48 not to make TOP 8 looks fantastic value for a heavy lay..
Play Hawthorn + Geelong next 2 weeks, price will surely come in after 2 defeats + can look laying after that if concerned at all with em actually pulling some consistent form out!!
What about Essendon at $1.80
They have a hideous draw, I will eat my hat if they make the 8.
Hideous? There's two games they can't win, out of 6. They probably only need 3 to make it.
They aren't certs but around $1.80 is right I reckon.
They aren't certs but around $1.80 is right I reckon.
Is Podsiadly a Coleman chance ?
In their last 7 matches here are the goals kicked by the contenders ...
Franklin 25
Cloke 25
Podsiadly 23
Walker 21
Petrie 19
Kennedy 15
Garlett 15
Riewoldt 14
Here are the goals kicked to this stage ...
Riewoldt 47
Franklin 46
Cloke 43
Kennedy 41
Walker 40
Podsiadly 37
Garlett 36
Petrie 35
Podsiadly was @ $81.00 (Centrebet) this morning, but is now @$51.00. He plays Richmond this week and their defense is not a whole lot worse than GC's. If the Pods kicks another bag this week he'll come in a fair way.
I'm not confident of Riewoldt getting back on track. I'm half-expecting Cloke to not travel to Perth for the R23 match against Fremantle. Who knows what will happen with Franklin ?
In their last 7 matches here are the goals kicked by the contenders ...
Franklin 25
Cloke 25
Podsiadly 23
Walker 21
Petrie 19
Kennedy 15
Garlett 15
Riewoldt 14
Here are the goals kicked to this stage ...
Riewoldt 47
Franklin 46
Cloke 43
Kennedy 41
Walker 40
Podsiadly 37
Garlett 36
Petrie 35
Podsiadly was @ $81.00 (Centrebet) this morning, but is now @$51.00. He plays Richmond this week and their defense is not a whole lot worse than GC's. If the Pods kicks another bag this week he'll come in a fair way.
I'm not confident of Riewoldt getting back on track. I'm half-expecting Cloke to not travel to Perth for the R23 match against Fremantle. Who knows what will happen with Franklin ?
Pods has a bye too which of the other contenders only Walker & Riewoldt have.
Not value IMO @ $51, on luxbet.mobi he was listed at $555 which I thought was value but they wouldn't accept any bets
Not value IMO @ $51, on luxbet.mobi he was listed at $555 which I thought was value but they wouldn't accept any bets
Firstly im staggered that Riewoldt is still on top, it seems likes hes done nothing for two months.
I understand where you are coming from with PODS and its easy to get excited over one big game but it would be worth some thought at 50's. What if he kicks 6 and finds himself only 6 behind? Stranger things have happened. Unlikely.. but thats why its $50 and not $2
Riewoldt & Buddy look extremely shaky imo.
