AFL Futures

[The Big Woofer]

I dont get how people can rate North so low and teams like Melbourne high. At the end of last year we beat Melbourne with ease and we will improve heaps this year with another pre season behind a very young team. I am tossing up whether to back us now for top 8 or after rd 2, but i think we will be 1-1 because we really should beat West Coast easily

I think a fully fit NM is still better than Melb or Ess but that is the problem, they have some good players either missing or who haven't had a great preseason, i think once they get to full strength they'll be a good value team to bet on but i just worry in the 1st couple of games.

 

[Pres]

I dont get how people can rate North so low and teams like Melbourne high. At the end of last year we beat Melbourne with ease

Nonsense - that game was in the balance all day.

because we really should beat West Coast easily

Why? It is round 1 over in WA in the heat with 5 first choice players out and these young cellar dweller teams are inevitably at their best early in the season.

 

[jimmyclean]

I am keen on NM but honestly I don't like them enough this week to get on board.

Grima is unlikely to play imo due to the hard surface at Subiaco and the trip west is never an advantage.

On the other hand NM beat WCE in Subiaco last year and are clearly the better side.

They should win imo but aren't a certainty.

 

[GoodesStuff]

On the other hand NM beat WCE in Subiaco last year and are clearly the better side.

They should win imo but aren't a certainty.

LOL, no shit.

They are paying 2.30

 

[jimmyclean]

LOL, no shit.

They are paying 2.30

Quality post.

 

[half_back_flank]

Centrebet got worried and seems to have stopped multi bets for the most team goals.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Centrebet have place a bet on any H2H Round 1 match and they'll match your bet with a free bet up to $20.

Also have the Centrebet match your first bet with a free bet up to $200

$200 collingwood h2h
$20 collingwood h2h

Do you know if the free bet can be a multi?

 

[Dr Awkward]

Centrebet got worried and seems to have stopped multi bets for the most team goals.

Oh no! They probably realised they are going to get cleaned out. Lucky I got $400 worth of bets on already, was planning to have a bit more though.

Fingers crossed for no injuries to Pavlich, J Riewoldt, Hall, Franklin, Walker, Jurrah, N Riewoldt.

 

[kangars8]

Halftime/Fulltime WEST COAST/NORTH MELBOURNE 8.75

Worth i punt i say.
Eagles will want to start strong and get the crowd behing them but the Roos having a little bit more experience should get them over the line. just like last time

 

[Nothing]

Halftime/Fulltime WEST COAST/NORTH MELBOURNE 8.75

Worth i punt i say.
Eagles will want to start strong and get the crowd behing them but the Roos having a little bit more experience should get them over the line. just like last time

More an AFL round 1 bet than a future, but I like it. Also WC/NM/NM/NM at the quarters @ $12.

 

[CamTinley]

Oh no! They probably realised they are going to get cleaned out. Lucky I got $400 worth of best on already, was planning to have a bit more though.

Fingers crossed for no injuries to Pavlich, J Riewoldt, Hall, Franklin, Walker, Jurrah, N Riewoldt.

I did the same ie, put a heap of money for "team goals" before they closed it. Wanted to do the same again tonight but couldn't. I've only got 2 of your anchors through (JRiewoldt & Hall). I'm punting on Petrie staying fit and not getting suspended too much.

 

[Dr Awkward]

I did the same ie, put a heap of money for "team goals" before they closed it. Wanted to do the same again tonight but couldn't. I've only got 2 of your anchors through (JRiewoldt & Hall). I'm punting on Petrie staying fit and not getting suspended too much.

Which other players did you use? I reckon JR8, Hall, Franklin, and Pav are absolute certainties (barring injuries) and I reckon Walker is the best value and should be about $1.60.

 

[True North]

I have been Laying the Crows on Betfair between $1.86 - $1.94. They are now $1.84 so I'll take more of that. To me this is outstanding, having a fit list doesn't mean 12+ wins.

I have been laying Melbourne in the mid $1.90's too. Bailey can't coach, won't survive beyond this year. No defensive game plan, can't counter a press.

North to make the 8 is way overs at $3.25 Whether or not it happens is open to debate, however there are 5 teams odds on who are no better a chance.

 

[CamTinley]

Which other players did you use? I reckon JR8, Hall, Franklin, and Pav are absolute certainties (barring injuries) and I reckon Walker is the best value and should be about $1.60.

I only used two anchors JRiewoldt & Hall (with all bets). From there, I used Waite, Schulz and then to a lesser extent Petrie and Hurley and then to a very much lesser extent Podsiadly. I hadn't finished and only got half way through what I had planned to do until they stopped taking bets. I'm happy but not entirely happy because I am a fair chance of coming up with nothing if either JRiewoldt of Hall go down and also a bit overcommitted to Petrie.

I thought about Pav as another anchor but in the end didn't. I was just a bit unsure about how Anthony would go. I think Pav will kick the most for Freo all the same, so good luck.

 

[Pinnell]

Oh no! They probably realised they are going to get cleaned out. Lucky I got $400 worth of bets on already, was planning to have a bit more though.

Fingers crossed for no injuries to Pavlich, J Riewoldt, Hall, Franklin, Walker, Jurrah, N Riewoldt.

Add Waite to that list, and to a lesser extent Petrie and Hurley and Centrebet will be hurting, BIG time. Waite is the key to a big payout for me...

 

[KardiniaPark]

Waite has kicked the first goal of the season for the last two years Sportingbet have a deal going for the first two games where it pays out on the first two goals of the game. If your player kicks both you get it paid out twice. Not available yet, possibly later today...

 

[Dr Awkward]

I only used two anchors JRiewoldt & Hall (with all bets). From there, I used Waite, Schulz and then to a lesser extent Petrie and Hurley and then to a very much lesser extent Podsiadly. I hadn't finished and only got half way through what I had planned to do until they stopped taking bets. I'm happy but not entirely happy because I am a fair chance of coming up with nothing if either JRiewoldt of Hall go down and also a bit overcommitted to Petrie.

I thought about Pav as another anchor but in the end didn't. I was just a bit unsure about how Anthony would go. I think Pav will kick the most for Freo all the same, so good luck.

I didn't use any 'anchors' as such because as much as players like Riewoldt and Hall are certainties they could still do an ACL. I didn't want to be in a situation where I lose everything if someone goes down. I basically had 5 'rotating' anchors (using 3 of the 5 each time) and then about 4 other value adders.

Also added Dixon and Matera in a few, I think they are the main Gold Coast chances (along with Ablett) but think Ablett was too short at $1.9.

Not so sure about Petrie or Waite, I didn't go with them. Both teams seemed to have a legitimate number of candidates to win- L Thomas, Betts, Garlett, Henderson... Waite's role in the team is also a bit subject to change, he could find himself at CHB at some stages.

Anyway good luck

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Yeah I was hoping to get a few more down but only got 8 multis of $10 and 1 of $20.

Hoping everyone gets up!

 

[Kahuna]

**** **** **** **** **** ****

Centrebet SUCK.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

How does an agency get a market so wrong that they have to take it down completely?

 

[Dr Awkward]

I'm thinking about making some extra 'single' bets on the most goals markets, although obviously I would have to start outlaying some real money to get decent returns.

 

[Dr Awkward]

Hey guys, I’m going to run through my future bets analysis for AFL 2011. It’s quite long, I didn’t write this for this forum just for myself and a couple of friends but I have already made my bets so may as well post for people if they feel like reading or making comment. (Teams are in random order). I generally like to bet and lay during the season.

Sydney - Must pay respect to this team, good spread of players across the field, although don’t really like some backline players. Good mix of experience and quality young talent. Forward line is quite potent, will be hard to contain, a number of players who require a good defender. Would probably like a goal sneak, perhaps Dennis-Lane is partly in that mould? Midfield rotation of Jack, McGlynn, Bolton, McVeigh, Jetta, O’Keefe, Shaw, Hannebery, Rohan, Moore is good. I like teams with a good defensive game. Would be very surprised if they didn’t make the 8, I think the teams from about 6th down will really struggle to beat Sydney.

DRAW: Overall draw is fine.

Verdict: Large stake to make the top 8. Lacking some overall class and superstar power to make top 4. $2 is definitely overs to make the 8. They are likely to get better as the season goes on imo.

North Melbourne – Perennially over-valued in betting markets, I see the same thing has happened this year. The injuries during the preseason is a worry however I think they have some pretty solid depth and are potentially an improving team. Good mix of inside and outside players and some excellent young talent. A mid-table team capable of surprising this year if things go right. A number of older players, but not necessarily declining players. Game plan relies on contested marking forward options which are somewhat in stock.

DRAW: Decent draw, tough from 14-20 but if good enough can make 8.
Verdict: I have them marked at about $2.30 to make the 8, thus the $3.35 on betfair is overs, however I’m not overly confident until I see more evidence so only having a small stake bet.


Melbourne - Expecting a similar year to last year in terms of wins and ladder position. Loss of Bruce and McDonald will hurt and is a poor decision IMO. Some good attacking players, forward line not easy to contain but the midfield is a bit young and thin. Their midfield rotations are still going to be full of 1st/ 2nd/ 3rd year players. I have question marks over other players like Moloney, Jones, Bate, Joel. McDonald, Warnock. Question marks over the coach and some early injuries to Frawley, Scully and some others will hurt.

DRAW: Softish early draw, first 8 games winnable. Last 4 rounds very soft, make sure you are off by round 20.

Verdict: I think they are likely to miss the 8 and am surprised by the odds. Happy to lay them at $1.90 for a large stake.


Western Bulldogs – I like this team, very good spread of quality, excellent midfield will be boosted by fit Ward, Higgins, Sherman, and pressure on best 22 from good young players in Liberatore, Wallis, Skinner. Enough depth to cover short term injuries. Defensive game is the weak point, remains to be seen if coach can manufacture a premiership winning gameplan. Good disposal coming out of backline. Lake is crucial to the team. Crucial that some younger players improve. I think they will make an improvement on last year and will be too good for most teams. Would be surprised if they didn’t make the top 4. Scoring ability is strong.
Draw: First 9 rounds pretty soft.

Verdict: $2.3 to make top 4 is slight overs, backing them to make top 4 for a small stake.

Fremantle – I have a big question mark over this team. Injury list and interrupted pre-seasons will hurt. Morabito out for the year, Barlow coming back from injury are big blows. I don’t think they will have the wave of form and momentum that they had last year when they had a somewhat ‘aligning of the planets’. I think some of the younger players will become a bit more exposed when the going gets tougher this year. Nevertheless, a good mix of players that will now have some belief to win away from home. They now actually have a midfield which couldn’t be said two years ago. Will be tough to beat at Subi for anyone. Reliance on Pav is dropping.

DRAW: A bit soft, especially early on.

Verdict: I think they should be slightly bigger odds to make the 8, about $2, so I’ve layed them at $1.75 for a small stake.

Richmond – I don’t like this team, to put it simply they just don’t have enough good players. At least now the best players are in the right age bracket. Capable of winning a few games but should struggle. Too many players with poor disposal and not enough goal scoring ability. Some young potential stars but still not old enough yet. Very poor off-season recruiting (picking up Miller?, getting rid of Collins??) An interrupted pre-season for Riewoldt is a worry. The team is still a few years off. Not enough top end quality and not enough depth. Game plan developing.

DRAW: Yet again a horror first 4 rounds (Carl, StK, Haw, Coll)

Verdict: This team should be tighter in the market for the spoon, I have them about even with Brisbane and worse than Port, and marked at about $5.5 so the $11 available on betfair is overs (edit- they have now come in to about $8, good thing I got on early).

Collingwood – Respect for this team and coach. Excellent midfield rotating players, excellent depth and good recruitments. Success is however dependent on gameplan and the player execution. Backline is just so hard to penetrate, will be interested to see if the gameplan has evolved or if it is the same this year. Do not want to bet against coach. Forward line is containable. Midfield can only be match by supreme teams. Think they are probably about the right price for the flag, it can be very hard to win back to back. Not unbeatable, a different bounce of the ball and we would not be talking about a premiership team and the odds would probably be different.

DRAW: Only 3 games outside Melbourne! Byes well positioned.

Verdict: Don’t want them as a ‘loser’ in my premiership market. Can’t see them not making top 4, should be about $1.2ish, haven’t found any value.



Adelaide – Not overly confident in making a prediction about this team, any ladder position between 5th and 12th would not surprise. Injuries and form will be crucial, some good defensive players, fairly even amount of quality across the ground. I really think Walker will have a big year, his upper body looks massive this year. Will need to see if their game plan is working and will have a better idea of this team during the season. Some ok young players and a bit of depth up until about the 26th player.

Verdict: Wait for season

Essendon – The team seems susceptible to shifts of momentum, new coach looks to have made improvements with defence as a priority, many players moving towards prime age years. Potentially an ‘upset’ team during the year, seem capable of winning tough games and losing easier games. May be underrated in some games during the year. Starting to get a decent number of players that can rotate through the midfield. Any injuries during the season would test depth. Perhaps forward line not potent enough.

DRAW: Very tough first 5 rounds, gets soft after that.

Verdict: Wait. I would rather see how they go in the first 5 rounds and if I like how they are going will back them after round 5.

West Coast – A fairly unimpressive team but I think they have enough ability/quality to be out of contention for the spoon. The team is very poorly coached, I especially hate their defensive game and also their disposal coming out of the backline. I have them above Port, Rich, Bris, and GC. Will be able to win some games, forward line is developing and improving. No real chance of top 8.

DRAW: Early draw provides winning opportunities, some litmus test games then a very tough run from rounds 8-19.

Verdict: No bet for me yet.


Geelong – Interrupted pre-seasons, ageing players, and superseded game plan are obvious issues. Very even and strong team across the park. Scoring ability is very high, defence good, midfield good but not great anymore. I expect them to smash some teams who still haven’t caught up and show glimpses of champion Geelong and then have other very tough games. I’m prepared to write them out of the premiership market, don’t think they are ‘prime’ enough or can beat the top teams in big games anymore. Strong top 25 not much depth outside that but they always seem to have good injury run.

Verdict: Confortable having them as a loser in my premiership market. Still capable of top 4 if things go right but I’m backing WB and StK to make it ahead of them.

St Kilda – Must admire midfield of this team and its match winning players. Decent across the whole ground although they have ‘filler’ between spots 16-22 with some spuds like Blake, Kozi, Dawson, Eddy, R. Clarke, that can really let you down in certain games. Operate excellently as a unit. Good goal scoring ability, not too crowded in forward line although perhaps another option such as Lynch will be needed. Should be able to have a similar year to last year, still see best players in their prime and gameplan has not yet been superseded. Injuries to a few key players could hurt them. Don't expect off-field issues to be a negative really.

Verdict: .Backing them at $8 for the flag (with the intent of laying off at some stage) and a small stake at $2.05 to make top 4.


Carlton - I generally like the team, their best players are approaching prime years. A good number of quality players that can rotate through midfield. Enormous reliance on Judd. Looks fit at this stage. Defensive aspect of the team and the ability of the coach still have question marks.

DRAW: Solid draw, testing at times but solid.
Verdict: Think they should be a bit shorter to make to 8 but not quite enough value for me to bet. Top 4 not out of the question but would need to see more from them. Figured out that this has been my least successful team to bet on games for the last 3 years!


Hawthorn - Unlike last year, no reason to bet against them. Bruce a very good addition. Can see them being mentally fresher this year, attacking potency is obvious, not too many problems coming out of the backline. Still a lot of ‘iffy’ players who I can’t predict what their output would be: Osborne, Ellis, Ladson, Sewell, Bateman, Young. These sorts of players or other young players need to step up to ensure the bottom half of their best 22 is stronger than previous years. Gameplan still a bit unknown.

DRAW: Pretty standard draw, byes well placed, can see them winning enough games for top 4 if everything goes right.

Verdict: Odds seem slightly too short for top 4 but not enough confidence to bet without seeing some games.

Brisbane – I really dislike this team for the long-term, but so does everyone else. However I think it has been a little overstated how uncompetitive they will be in the short-term. I think they may be slightly better than people think, especially in the first half of the year. Top 15 players are OK, depth after that is non-existent, any injuries will hurt the team badly. Question marks over J. Brown fitness a worry. Midfield is very very thin. Scoring ability not bad. Defence is left susceptible by midfield.

Verdict: No bet at this stage however I expect them to start somewhat well and then fade as the season goes on. May be backing them to lose a fair few times after about round 5 or 6 if the odds allow it. Bottom 4.


Port Adelaide – Such a ‘meh’ team. Gameplan during preseason has looked good however there are some talent issues against top sides. If absolutely everything went right they could be a top 8 side, but too many question marks. Don’t seem to have a clicked gameplan and sufficient defensive game. Don’t operate well and at times fail to ‘reach the some of their parts’. Some issues with disposal and turnovers, not enough match winning players.
Draw: Not too bad a draw, play WC Melb Rich twice

Verdict: Odds to make top 8 seem about right, possibly a little bit short @ 3.3 but not enough confidence to bet here. Shouldn’t be contesting for spoon, pretty much can wipe them out of that market. No bet

Gold Coast – I’m finding it hard to frame the wooden spoon market because of this team and the ‘unknown’ quantity they bring. It is especially difficult given that we haven’t seen the team play as a full unit at all yet (with starting 22 including Ablett and Brennan). How fit will these guys be and how effective in the new team? I think it will be much easier to gage their ability after a few games. I expect them to become more competitive as the season goes on. I have promised myself not to bet against them much after being impressed/surprised by some players in the NAB.

Verdict: No bet yet.

 

[half_back_flank]

Nice write up Dr.

Disagree with the Essendon underrated comment though, if anything they will be overrated given their NAB Cup performance, especially in the earlier rounds (overs for the Dogs this week imo for example).

 

[CamTinley]

I didn't use any 'anchors' as such because as much as players like Riewoldt and Hall are certainties they could still do an ACL. I didn't want to be in a situation where I lose everything if someone goes down. I basically had 5 'rotating' anchors (using 3 of the 5 each time) and then about 4 other value adders.

Also added Dixon and Matera in a few, I think they are the main Gold Coast chances (along with Ablett) but think Ablett was too short at $1.9.

Not so sure about Petrie or Waite, I didn't go with them. Both teams seemed to have a legitimate number of candidates to win- L Thomas, Betts, Garlett, Henderson... Waite's role in the team is also a bit subject to change, he could find himself at CHB at some stages.

Anyway good luck

That is what I planned to do but couldn't ie, take the risk away from being too reliant on any two players. Your 3 of 5 anchors is a great strategy and that is what I really wanted to do but couldn't due to them pulling the multi for "team goals" when they did. From the sounds of what you've said, I think you'll win big.

 

[Smart Punting]

Season Bets:

• 1.5units - Lance Franklin Coleman Medal @ $4.75 (C/S)
• 1.25units - St. Kilda Premiers @ $7 (C/SB)
• 1.25units - Port Adelaide to make Top 8 @ $5.50 (C)
• 1unit - St. Kilda Minor Premiers @ $7 (S)
• 1unit - Collingwood/St.Kilda Grand Final @ $7 (S/SB)
• 0.5unit - Brendon Goddard Brownlow Medal @ $17 (C)
• 0.5unit - Adam Goodes Brownlow Medal @ $34 (SB)

2011 AFL Season Preview

The AFL season is upon us and there is one question surrounding the league, who if anybody, can knock off Collingwood? Another hot topic is that of the Gold Coast Suns and how they will fair. Below we preview each and every team.
Adelaide - Had a terrible start to last year (0-6) which wasn't helped by their injury list. Will be an interesting year for the Crows as they can't rely on the likes of Goodwin, Edwards and McLeod anymore and the loss of Bock will stretch their defence a bit. Will improve from last year but probably miss the eight.
Brisbane - Have been surrounded by controversy in the off season with Brendan Fevola, but that is behind them. Have a few injuries and a few players seem to be underdone. Will be a tough year for the young Lions.
Carlton - A big year for Carlton and Brett Ratten. Have plenty of talent through the midfield but are a little leaky down back. Need to make the 8 for Ratten to keep his job and they should be right around the mark. Watch out for Chris Yarren of the HBF, could be a breakout year. Should finish 6-10
Collingwood - Were very impressive in winning last years premiership. The best thing about them is that they get equal contribution and that they can cover an injury here or there. The only doubt that may surround them is whether their young players can back it up again. Will finish top 4, but their odds are a bit short.
Essendon - Hard not to be impressed with the way Hirdy has the troops working. But it all comes down to whether they can do it in the games that matter. There is no doubt they have a better game plan and greater enthusiasm around the club. Most likely still miss the finals, but won't be far off.
Fremantle - They were a very good side last year and are team that is going forward. They are a very young side with some exciting prosects, but their injury list to start the season is quite large so they may have a slow start to the season. Should make the finals but still have the problem of winning away.
Geelong - The Cats are another team who have something to prove. A new coach in Chris Scott will give a different feel to the club as they also have to deal with the fact their star player in Gary Ablett is not around. Collingwood beating them in the prelim final last year may be the sign that the Cats dynasty is ending. Should still make the eight, but top 4 is a challenge.
Gold Coast - The new boys on the block. They got their man in Gary Ablett, but they also picked up a handful of clasy players along the way aswell like Brown, Bock, Fraser, Rischitelli and a few more. They will win a few games but won't move too far from the botttom four. With so many young players, fatigue will play a role part way through the season.
Hawthorn - A lot is expected from this Hawks team afer they had a disapointing year. They need to regain the form that won them the 2008 premiership. The inclusion of Hale and Bruce to this side is a bonus and Shaun Burgoyne will be fitter and more dominant this year. There major concern is their defence, but if their midfield can slow down teams enough then they can get by with the defence they have. Have every chance to push for top 4.
Melbourne - Were an impressive team when they executed last year. They are still very young, but have very high expectations of themselves. They should be pushing for a finals spot, but even if they miss out, doesn't mean they under achieve. Some are saying Dean Bailey could be in trouble, but as long as they play consistently and win as many games as last year, then he should be ok for one more.
North Melbourne - They have always been the team that slips under the radar. But they have some really exciting and talented young players. Getting Drew Petrie back on the field after a horror year is important. They still rely on Brent Harvey a bit too much and when some others begin to step up then they will start to climb. They will be in that group fighting for eighth spot.
Port Adelaide - Seems a lot of people have written off the Power this year, which is a little confusing. They are a young side who have a new coach which they won 5 of 7 games under last year. They had a few injuries to players all last year, who will be fit this year. Boak is moving into to that top class midfielder role, Gray and Hartlett are only getting better as are Broadbent and Trengove. Their young and only becoming more experienced and if they win 2 more games this year they play finals.
Richmond - Flat out, they are still rebuilding. The middle part of last year they looked good when they put some wins on the board, but they just can't do it every week. Have a few handy draft picks, Houli will be a good addition to the side and the return of Foley will improve the midfield. Need to find more avenues to goal and not rely on Riewoldt all year.
St. Kilda - For some reason all the journalists have Collingwood so far ahead of the Saints, becuase they beat them in the Grand Final last year. But consider this, had the Saints scored one more point in the first Grand Final they would be Premiers, so are they really that far behind? Remember Saint Nick wasn't 100% near the end of the season due to coming back from injury. A smart move from the club was to recruit Ryan Gamble from the Cats. He should provide that other dimension to their forward line, like what Sam Gilbert did in the first GF. You will not find a side more motivated to win this years premiership.
Sydney - One of the great coaches of our time has moved one, but Paul Roos has left his side in good shape. The challenge for John Longmire is to get the best out of every player, like Roos has been able to do. Expect Lewis Jetta to have a good year and not suffer from the second year blues. Will find themselves in the top eight and if you are slightlty off the day you play them, it will be a very tough day.
West Coast - Could well be another long tough year for the Eagles. They are rebuilding and are waiting for some key posistion players to develop. They have the home field advantage that will win them a few games, but on the road don't expect much at all. There will be a lot of talk about John Worsfold later in the year.
Western Bulldogs - The challenge has been set by David Smorgon, make a Grand Final or else. They have been close the past few years but just can't find that extra edge to get them their. What they need to do is finish in the top two. They can't afford to lose easy games throughout the year. If Shaun Higgins can stay fit and on the park, that will be a massive boost. Should be a top 4 side and only time will tell whether they can go all the way.
Final Word
This is such an interesting year on the betting front. Like we said before, the Saints were one point away from being Premiers last year, so they really aren't that far behind this year. Collingwod are now the hunted and we saw what happened to a young Hawthorn side when they became the hunted. The Hawks were preparing themselves for this season, part way through last and they look good at the moment. For value, Port look good odds for the final eight, considering they just missed out last year. All other teams who finished around the same spot last year are a lot shorter. One thing we will learn this year is to not write anyone or any team off.