AFL Power Rankings 2014

[MrKK]

I don't understand why that's a problem for roby. Most people thought that Geelong would beat Fremantle, and would go further. This smacks of revisionism, Fremantle made the grand final so anyone who predicted otherwise is bad at this. You need to rate the system as a whole as well.

It's not a problem for anyone who admits that at the start of last season's finals they thought Geelong were more likely to make the GF than Freo. However, if someone is going to arrogantly claim that they alone amongst all predictors tipped Freo to make the GF then yeah, it's a problem.

 

[tige19]

Where do I get Nate Chiz's predictions? And does anyone really follow any particular tipping agency that has a great winning % and ROI? There's a few I use but they often put up lines that are clearly better than what's offered by the corporates or TAB which is just total bull shit.

 

[Whos_Your_Caddy]

Won't be for ever, eventually it won't be for free, enjoy it while it lasts.

People paying money for this, thank you, I haven't had a laugh like that for quite sometime.

 

[TheFVK]

I loved Roby's betting strategy last year.

1. Lose all your money
2. Conjure up more money out of thin air and keep increasing your bet size, "double or nothing" style until you win it back.

For those of you not familiar with the Martingale betting strategy, see this link. It's a strategy subject to a continuous stream of small returns, interspersed by huge, bankruptcy inducing losses. Roby's last gasp "chasing your losses" move was a variation on this, and in reality wouldn't have worked since he'd lost all his kitty to begin with. His return on investment should read "-100%, call the liquidators."

 

[Jimmy_the_Gent]

$2.65 or a 15.14% return in Round 1. Looking forward to seeing if this goes arse up like everyone expects or if Roby can keep manufacturing a profit.

 

[Phhht]

Phhht's betting strategy

1. Go out for catch up drinks with brother 2 weeks ago.
2. Turn into serious drinking session.
3. Once completely out of our wits, place $50 gung ho multi bet on GWS, GC, Port, WCE to win at 1:246.
4. Wake up next morning and wonder why massive hangover shows stupid multi-bet
5. wait two anxious 'split round one' weeks for results
6. Collect $12K plus.
7. Phhht's share = $6k plus.
8. Get drunk again

Moral of story, go drinking with Phhht and his bro. No analysis needed, no copious amounts of reviewing every single contest of every single game, just good time boozing.

And heck if the unthinkable happens and its a bust, you've had a good night.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

The only way a "chase your losses" staking plan can work is if you're staking a minuscule percentage (well, well less than 1%] of your total bank on each bet, so that you can withstand the inevitable losses.

The issue with this, obviously, is that you need to lay an insane amount of bets to make any sort of meaningful progress.

And the problem with footy is, there's just not enough events. Less than 200 - in a whole year.

I encourage anybody interested to try it yourself - with minimum bets of course, because you're going to lose the lot.

 

[TheFVK]

The only way a "chase your losses" staking plan can work is if you're staking a minuscule percentage (well, well less than 1%] of your total bank on each bet, so that you can withstand the inevitable losses.

The issue with this, obviously, is that you need to lay an insane amount of bets to make any sort of meaningful progress.

And the problem with footy is, there's just not enough events. Less than 200 - in a whole year.

I encourage anybody interested to try it yourself - with minimum bets of course, because you're going to lose the lot.

I had a play around with a few betting strategies using downloadable Roulette simulators when I was a poor uni student looking for a way to "beat the system". Good way to test these theories without losing your dough first.

Did I find any that worked? (outside of poker or card counting)

Spoiler alert: I finished my degree

 

[barmy44]

im a big fan of cosmos: a personal journey by carl sagan. read both the book and watched the series many times over.

quite interested in the reboot, featuring neil degrasse tyson. as a 17 year old, carl invited neil to his house for an afternoon... neil being an up and coming astronomer, who had been giving lectures in his local area at 15.

tonights episode was great... all about isaac newton and edmund halley, and their feats of mathematics. halley going back over centuries of observations to plot the orbital period of the comet that later took his name. newton writing the principia — breaking down the natural world into mathematical equiations and laws — which halley took upon himself to publish. contained in the books were the beginnings of calculus.

a fascinating insight into two majorly significant people, both exhibiting genius and originality in their fields, and building the foundation for what was to follow in scientific endeavour. and this was just the first 35 minutes of a 45 minute episode.

as the stories of newton and halley wound up, i could feel my breath shorten.

here was the story — no doubt abridged to fit into the 10 minutes remaining — of robys profound genius and the years of toil that had gone into creating a gambling system so successful that instead of opening a $250 million museum with his winnings like the other betting guru david walsh, he opened a main board thread instead...

but... nothing. no mention of roby, or the power rankings, or the breadth of his genius, vision or grasp of calculus.

meh, the new cosmos is a tacky bullshit rip off of the original anyway.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I had a play around with a few betting strategies using downloadable Roulette simulators when I was a poor uni student looking for a way to "beat the system". Good way to test these theories without losing your dough first.

Did I find any that worked? (outside of poker or card counting)

Spoiler alert: I finished my degree

A proper staking plan can work - in fact it's mandatory for any successful gambler (yes, there are successful ones - generally less than 3% of all regular gamblers in total).

But it of course needs to be combined with the actual tipping methodology that has been shown to work.

Combine the two and you just might make a small profit over the long run, and you'll be a 3%er.

 

[Ochre]

If I wanted to read about successful betting strategies I wouldn't have opened this thread.

 

[samFFC]

If I wanted to read about successful betting strategies I wouldn't have opened this thread.

Profitable last week!!

$2.65 or a 15.14% return in Round 1. Looking forward to seeing if this goes arse up like everyone expects or if Roby can keep manufacturing a profit.

 

[Roby]

It's already over

No team has ever been ranked 8th or lower and won the premiership, so for eleven teams the chance of a premiership for 2014 has ended in round one. Every team from Richmond (8th) down will have to wait another year.


Three more will be voted off by round four, so for teams like Sydney (5th), North, (7th) and the Suns (6th), they need to get a move on as there is a considerable gap between them and Adelaide (4th). Then forget about catching the top two ranked teams, they're way ahead.


Sydney's next three games are tough, but if they win them all and beat Adelaide convincingly they should take fourth spot in the rankings.


North will need to thrash their next three opponents, Dogs (16th), Port (9th) and Sydney in order to reach top four. They can do it but probably won't.


Which leaves Gold Coast. The Suns have Fremantle (1st), Hawthorn (2nd) and Brisbane (13th) in their next three games. Technically they could lose all their next three games and if they were competitive within a kick or two in the Freo and Hawks games, they could take fourth spot in the rankings. The Suns also move their highest position ever in the rankings this week.



Power move up to their highest spot


Port smash their previous highest ranking position when they finished 12th and the end of the of the 2012 AFL power rankings and move into ninth. They also jumped five spots in one week, last time that happened was Gold Coast last year back in round nine. It suggests they are moving closer to that second premiership with their young list. The only issue is that moving up the rankings to the top is a lot harder than from the bottom; now the real fun starts.


West Coast (12th) also had a massive jump this week by moving up four spots but don't be fooled into thinking they are already back to being a powerhouse, because just remember...





It's only round one; don't lose your shit.


But wait didn't you just say it was already over for eleven teams?


Totally different.


You'll see.



Wait WTH, I am going to lose my shit! How the hell did Essendon (14th) go down if they beat North?


North are 7th right, so doesn't your rankings reward good performances against higher ranked teams?

Essendon did gain a fair few points but not enough to go past the Saints (11th) or Lions (13th) even though they both lost points this week. North were hampered by key in-game injuries and umpiring, so deductions on the Bombers performance were made. Port and West Coast then leapfrogged Essendon with better performances. Doesn't matter anyway, what matters is this Friday for the Dons, they play the reigning premiers and their performance against them will count for everything.

Carlton (15th) plummet to their lowest position in rankings history. Time for rebuild.



2014 AFL Power Rankings Round 1

1 Fremantle (-)
2 Hawthorn (-)
3 Geelong (+1)
4 Adelaide (-1)
5 Sydney (-)
6 Gold Coast (+1)
7 Kangaroos (-1)
8 Richmond (-)
9 Port Adelaide (+5)
10 Collingwood (-1)
11 St Kilda (+1)
12 West Coast (+4)
13 Brisbane (-3)
14 Essendon (-1)
15 Carlton (-4)
16 Bulldogs (-1)
17 GWS (+1)
18 Melbourne (-1)

*positional changes from pre-season rankings.

Luck or skill?

Well if you take in isolation the big bet of $4 on the Saints line, it might be considered a lucky win given the Dees struggled with in-game injuries and thus probably cost them the game. But the rankings did take a two goal line on that match so... And the rankings are closer to predicted margins 56% of time in relation to the betting market in the last three years so... In any case, the first week of bets has already yielded 34% profit in the first week.


So.... don't believe some of the lies been sprouted that the rankings aren't making money. Since 2011, the original stake has increased 577%. That's right, more than FIVE TIMES and it will keep growing. There is no market or investment fund that can compete with that, in fact, you would need to have had the fortune of investing in the top performing bull stocks to have than kind of return.

Current fund: $10.47
Staked for 2014: $13.82

2014 Tip tally: 5/9






I will post the preview for round two tomorrow.


Last week's rankings.

Pre-season rankings.

 

[Ochre]

14 Essendon (-1)

And we're back.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

9 Port Adelaide (+5)

Wtf.

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

And we're back.

 

[Final Siren]

It's already over

No team has ever been ranked 8th or lower and won the premiership, so for eleven teams the chance of a premiership for 2014 has ended in round one.

Wouldn't it have ended before the season started, since you do power rankings ahead of round 1? There were already 11 teams below the cut-off.

 

[Halloween Jack]

Brilliant, just brilliant.

 

[Vindicater]

Haha... Love these things.

Is there an award for internet trolling. Because if so we have our winner.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Greatest. Troll. Ever.

Rank below North. Smash North. Drop in rank.

Roby... does the term "sense check" mean anything to you?

 

[raman]

No team has ever been ranked 8th or lower and won the premiership

Extraordinary.

 

[treefingers]

I umpire nine AFL games every round.

I'm still laughing at this.

 

[eth-dog]

Greatest. Troll. Ever.

Rank below North. Smash North. Drop in rank.

Roby... does the term "sense check" mean anything to you?

Wait this week, if we beat Hawthorn he'll come up with some obscure reason so we're last

 

[Dirty Bird]

Wtf.

Refer to my post a few days ago.
You just have to go average this year and you'll shoot up.
He'll stop including your 2012 season in the rankings.

It's why Adelaide went up last year despite being mediocre. He was starting to ignore the 2011 season.

 

[Oneiros]

Dearest Roby,

I call upon your great Umpiring Wisdom. In the enterprising league football match between the "Eagles" of West Coast and the "Bulldogs" of, uh, Western, there were 30 free kicks and no doubt a great many non-calls. There has been spirited debate amongst aficionados of both clubs as to who received the most favourable treatment from the men in green.

On whose side did your benevolence rate this umpiring performance?

Yours faithfully,