AFL Power Rankings 2014

[Final Siren]

It's already over

No team has ever been ranked 8th or lower and won the premiership, so for eleven teams the chance of a premiership for 2014 has ended in round one.

I know this is the third time I've quoted the same thing, but I keep finding new things in it. This time I am curious about the word "ever." Does that mean ever ever, or in the last three years you've been doing these rankings?

 

[Father Jack]

yeah.

west coasts hypotenuse was originally drafted on a curved surface, as opposed to the flat surface on which hawthorn and fremantle have drafted theirs. as a result, when the rest was added, the total sum of west coasts 'premiership triangle' angles was actually 270º, well above the ideal sum of 180º that teams still in premiership contention, i.e. hawthorn and fremantle, maintain for their premiership triangles.

protest all you will, but its in the maths dude. good luck in 2015.

at the rate we're going backwards, I expect we'll be having the 2006 flag taken away from us shortly

 

[sthmelb_dimmies]

The $5 St Kilda bet to win against GWS is the biggest in rankings history as they are expected to put the Giants back into their place with a thrashing win.

St Kilda vs GWS WIN – $5 @ $1.95 Centrebet

This screams of loss chasing.
You even went back into the hole to finance this. AND it's a Power Rankings Record gamble.
Sticking your neck out a long way here Roby. There's just as much chance of GWS pantsing StKilda in this one.

 

[Ichabod Noodle]

This screams of loss chasing.
You even went back into the hole to finance this. AND it's a Power Rankings Record gamble.
Sticking your neck out a long way here Roby. There's just as much chance of GWS pantsing StKilda in this one.

If we do manage to beat St Kilda we'll be back on the bottom of the ladder though.

 

[little graham]

Better teams have more weighting, lesser teams have less


.

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I'm a bit confused, every person from the Kangaroos who's spoken, and every single media source who watched the game, have all basically said that the Roos were lucky to lose by 39 and not 139.

Yet Roby puts its all down to injuries and umpiring.

Can they all be wrong? I guess the answer is yes.

 

[The Edukator]

When will you put up tips roby?

 

[Roby]

I know this is the third time I've quoted the same thing, but I keep finding new things in it. This time I am curious about the word "ever." Does that mean ever ever, or in the last three years you've been doing these rankings?

Last three years on the current model.

But it's probably also ever,ever, but I can't confirm or deny.

 

[samFFC]

Last three years on the current model.

But it's probably also ever,ever, but I can't confirm or deny.

But what is more likely? Confirm?

 

[Roby]

Power Rankings round two preview – remember the teams coming off the bye don't win (unless you're lucky like Port Adelaide)


Richmond (8th) vs Carlton (15th)


Both teams have had the week off to think about their past transgressions, so it really depends on who you think will do their head in more on who not to tip. Probably both equally but Carlton is missing too many key players and it's going to cost them. Richmond are also the better team, so this should all equate to a 20 point win to the Tigers. Both teams are out of premiership contention but at least the Tigers can still make the finals, that is unless they lose tonight and it's starts a uncontrollable spiral of death.


Essendon (14th) vs Hawthorn (2nd)


Many were impressed by the Bombers display against North last week, not these rankings. The Bombers have only won two of their last seven home and away games, and while some think that last year doesn't matter, you will see that it does. If they are good they will back it up with a good performance against the reigning premiers, even if they get within a kick that might just be enough send them to 9th position but the Hawks should win easily.


St Kilda (11th) vs GWS (17th)


If GWS who beat Sydney are beaten by St Kilda, does that mean that St Kilda is better than - by some experts the premiership favourite - Sydney? Well the Saints were robbed in their Sydney encounter in New Zeland last year by the umpires, so a case can be made. Of course many you think GWS will win; LMAO.


Port Adelaide (9th) vs Adelaide (4th)


So for the first game at Adelaide Oval for the showdown the rankings are predicting a draw due to the fact that AFL teams cannot win by 0.13 points. So what do you think has more weighting, Adelaide’s ranking or their outs? In this case it's there outs, how lucky is Port. They'll probably win with a lucky bounce.


Fremantle (1st) vs Gold Coast (6th)


If Gold Coast were to get within a few goals of the number one ranked team, they should leapfrog Sydney this week. Of course last year they were virtually humiliated by Fremantle at their own home ground, so it doesn't look good for them in Perth.


Sydney (5th) vs Collingwood (10th)


The rankings are predicting a close game but the Swans are still expected to win at home. Of all the Victorian teams, Collingwood had the worst loss of round one, losing the most ranking points. Another loss to either team here is going to be bad, very bad, a thrashing will be a doomsday scenario. Should I mention Buddy? Don't worry his name will come up every Sydney preview this year.


Brisbane (13th) vs Geelong (3rd)


The Lions showed last week they aren't up to task to compete with the big boys early in the season. I'll keep it short and sweet. Cats by 42.


Melbourne (18th) vs West Coast (12th)


Even though I bet money on the West Coast line, it would be nice to see the Dees show they can compete again for the second week in a row, if they can avoid getting thrashed by the Eagles and keep the margin respectable it might show that Paul Roos is setting the Dees on the right track.


Western Bulldogs (17th) vs North Melbourne (7th)


Even in North lose this week, it won't be the end of the world as many are predicting, it just means that after two rounds they haven't made any inroads. The problem with that is the top ranked teams may start to pull away while North languish in purgatory. Meanwhile the Dogs can show that last week was an aberration if they can get within five goals of the Kangaroos.



Final tips will be posted after final teams are out.

 

[Air_Chester]

So if Essendon (14th) follow up their convincing beating of North Melbourne (7th) by beating the reigning premiers (2nd) then we might be able to sneak into 9th place?

Well if I wasn't excited about this game before, I sure as shit am now.

 

[Roby]

But what is more likely? Confirm?

Neither is more likely because it isn't recorded. I can only go by memory, and possibly Geelong may have been as low as 8th in 2007 but I had a different model. If I applied this model I would need to watch all the games and therefore impossible to tell retrospectively. Without the umpiring and player weightings they wouldn't of dropped lower than 8th.

 

[Air_Chester]

Other classics include North (7th) "just not making inroads, not the end of the world" should they lose to WB (17th) the week after losing to the Bombers (14th).

And should St.Kilda (11th?!) beat GWS (also 17th) then St.Kilda may just be better than Sydney (5th) due to umpire weighting.

Great read as always.

 

[samFFC]

Neither is more likely because it isn't recorded. I can only go by memory, and possibly Geelong may have been as low as 8th in 2007 but I had a different model. If I applied this model I would need to watch all the games and therefore impossible to tell retrospectively. Without the umpiring and player weightings they wouldn't of dropped lower than 8th.

Outstanding.

 

[The Bomb]

Essendon will remain where they are.
Goldstein played hampered since the first quarter, Cunnington came off for one quarter and the umpring favoured Essendon last night. By calculation Roos should've won the game if all things had been equal. Wait. deja vu... seems similar to 2012 power rankings.

Essendon (14th) vs Hawthorn (2nd)


Many were impressed by the Bombers display against North last week, not these rankings. The Bombers have only won two of their last seven home and away games, and while some think that last year doesn't matter, you will see that it does. If they are good they will back it up with a good performance against the reigning premiers, even if they get within a kick that might just be enough send them to 9th position but the Hawks should win easily.

1st time I have seen this Roby

If you are saying last seasons form matters how about this little fact

Essendon finished 4 wins clear of North in 2013 and have already put them to the sword in 2014.
Essendon >> North
but some how you have North miles ahead I'm lost.

 

[Amazing Bombers]

Can't wait for Roby blaming the umpiring if Essendon Port and GWS all win.

 

[Roby]

1st time I have seen this Roby

If you are saying last seasons form matters how about this little fact

Essendon finished 4 wins clear of North in 2013 and have already put them to the sword in 2014.
Essendon >> North
but some how you have North miles ahead I'm lost.

Good luck tomorrow night.

 

[barmy44]

roby, where would geelong currently be rated if the andromeda/milky way collision was predicted for 3.8 billion years from today, as opposed to 4 billion years?

also, how heavily do you weight teams with many players currently in the 'saturn return' window as opposed to those with only a few? considering geelong have a number of players aged 28-30, i believe we are well placed in this regard.

 

[rumply]

And we're back.

Yeah, I have sort of half followed Roby's threads for a while now & given benefit of the doubt when I have watched many others not do the same, but this comment pretty much ended the dream for me -

"North were hampered by key in-game injuries and umpiring, so deductions on the Bombers performance were made."

Now Roby, yes Norf suffered one key in-game injury to their Ruckman, but 'hampered by umpiring'?? Sorry but that is just a ludicrous statement & any decent game watcher will tell you the same.

Now they may get smacked Friday night against the Hawks & it's not rocket science to know that Essendon need alot to go their way to be a Top 4 chance & legitimate Premiership candidate (as do all sides btw), but what I suspect is really happening with your lowly ranking of my side if that you are factoring in (subconsciously or otherwise) public sentiment or your own prejudices regarding 'the drugs scandal', &/or your belief player infractions are imminent which will destroy Essendon's season.

& as that is supposition/speculation, I am afraid that makes a mockery of your work.

 

[Roby]

... but what I suspect is really happening with your lowly ranking of my side if that you are factoring in (subconsciously or otherwise) public sentiment or your own prejudices regarding 'the drugs scandal', &/or your belief player infractions are imminent which will destroy Essendon's season.

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2013-afl-power-rankings.994497/page-52#post-28952040

Essendon performance dehancing and ASADA

Essendon (8th) move down one position because of a lack of performance against a team they should’ve beaten comfortably. The Eagles (11th) are a walking wounded and in really poor form, having only beaten North (12th) and Dogs (16th) this year at Paterson, and yet Essendon only just managed to get over the line.

The AFL has come out and said today that Essendon may lose premiership points if found guilty in regards to the ASADA investigations. My opinion on what will happen or how it should be dealt is irrelevant, but if the scenario were to arise were Essendon (or any team for that matter) were stripped of premiership points for the use of PED, then it would have no affect on ranking points. The rankings are not an arbiter of morality and will remain objective; therefore, in this case, Essendon will continue to gain/lose rankings points even if they are zero chance of playing finals. The power rankings are a measure of performance and if points are stripped it's not the rankings fault. That’s all I’ll say on the matter.

 

[Roby]

Betting tips round 2

With Carlton's late outs the rankings are putting more money on the Tigers line.

Richmond vs Carlton (-10.5) - $1 @ $2 Betstar

This week's betting tips.

 

[rumply]

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2013-afl-power-rankings.994497/page-52#post-28952040

Be that as it may Roby, but I reiterate that it must be influencing your judgement in some manner, otherwise I fail to see any logical explanation for your comments & rankings earlier this week.

 

[Roby]

Power Rankings tips for Round 2

Tigers
Hawks
Saints
Crows
Freo
Swans
Cats
Eagles
Roos

Current tips: 5/9

 

[daniel_4tw]

What's the point of having a fictional bank roll if you just add fictional dollars when it suits?

Of course you will always make a profit when you have an unlimited bank roll. Just apply Martingale betting strategy, add your infinite bank roll, and you'll forever be a god.

 

[sTeeL]

$2.65 or a 15.14% return in Round 1. Looking forward to seeing if this goes arse up like everyone expects or if Roby can keep manufacturing a profit.

I'm up 30% on initial stake without relying on Power Rankings. Awkward moment.

If Melbourne had of beaten the Saints, I would have been up 2000%



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