AFL Power Rankings 2014

[swansfan51]

Dearest Roby,

I call upon your great Umpiring Wisdom. In the enterprising league football match between the "Eagles" of West Coast and the "Bulldogs" of, uh, Western, there were 30 free kicks and no doubt a great many non-calls. There has been spirited debate amongst aficionados of both clubs as to who received the most favourable treatment from the men in green.

On whose side did your benevolence rate this umpiring performance?

Yours faithfully,

Don't make it so easy for him Oneiros.

Roby, since you watch each of the games in detail and note all the umpiring decisions (as you have said before), for each of the 30 free kicks please note whether the decision was justified or favoured one team, and also please note the key non-calls that favoured a team.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Isn't WC supposed to go down in the Roby rankings after a win?

I find this awfully confusing

 

[Oneiros]

Isn't WC supposed to go down in the Roby rankings after a win?

I find this awfully confusing

I for one did not know what to do with myself when I saw +4.

 

[barmy44]

Dearest Roby,

I call upon your great Umpiring Wisdom. In the enterprising league football match between the "Eagles" of West Coast and the "Bulldogs" of, uh, Western, there were 30 free kicks and no doubt a great many non-calls. There has been spirited debate amongst aficionados of both clubs as to who received the most favourable treatment from the men in green.

On whose side did your benevolence rate this umpiring performance?

Yours faithfully,

Don't make it so easy for him Oneiros.

Roby, since you watch each of the games in detail and note all the umpiring decisions (as you have said before), for each of the 30 free kicks please note whether the decision was justified or favoured one team, and also please note the key non-calls that favoured a team.

you guys have roby on the line, and thats what you ask him?

forget the weekends umpiring...

roby, i want to know what its like waking up every morning and just kicking the worlds f***ing ass? how many times a day do you just pump a fist and say 'roby, yessssss!'

also, whats it like having a 'licence to print money'?

 

[Oneiros]

you guys have roby on the line, and thats what you ask him?

forget the weekends umpiring...

roby, i want to know what its like waking up every morning and just kicking the worlds f***ing ass? how many times a day do you just pump a fist and say 'roby, yessssss!'

also, whats it like having a 'licence to print money'?

What can I say, I've never been a celebrity watcher, such questions didn't occur to me.

 

[barmy44]

What can I say, I've never been a celebrity watcher, such questions didn't occur to me.

thats like asking isaac newton whether he liked his eggs hard or soft poached...

 

[CharlieMortdecai]

North were hampered by key in-game injuries and umpiring, so deductions on the Bombers performance were made.

I find this interesting becaue the one thing the North board can be relied upon (apart from calls to sack the coach and delist half our squad) is to whine like a 747 at the slightest hint of umpiring injustice. And yet this week I heard nary a peep from my confreres. Having said that none of us would have been in any mood to watch a replay, let alone pause and analyse the 20 free kicks and however many non-decisions, so I will defer to your better judgment.

 

[Janus]

Wait...so you're saying Gold Coast has a chance of winning the premiership, but a team like Essendon doesn't? What crack are you smoking, and can I have some?

Not that either of them are going to, but the Bombers have more of a chance.

 

[Final Siren]

No team has ever been ranked 8th or lower and won the premiership, so for eleven teams the chance of a premiership for 2014 has ended in round one. Every team from Richmond (8th) down will have to wait another year.

Three more will be voted off by round four, so for teams like Sydney (5th), North, (7th) and the Suns (6th), they need to get a move on as there is a considerable gap between them and Adelaide (4th). Then forget about catching the top two ranked teams, they're way ahead.

So these teams can win the flag, but have no chance of overtaking the top two?

 

[madman]

Port!

 

[Amazing Bombers]

North are 7th right, so doesn't your rankings reward good performances against higher ranked teams?

Essendon did gain a fair few points but not enough to go past the Saints (11th) or Lions (13th) even though they both lost points this week. North were hampered by key in-game injuries and umpiring, so deductions on the Bombers performance were made. Port and West Coast then leapfrogged Essendon with better performances. Doesn't matter anyway, what matters is this Friday for the Dons, they play the reigning premiers and their performance against them will count for everything.

Carlton (15th) plummet to their lowest position in rankings history. Time for rebuild.

 

[PAFCsince1870]

Isn't WC supposed to go down in the Roby rankings after a win?

I find this awfully confusing

Yea Roby's rankings just aren't the same this year.

Logical rankings movement for the most part doesn't make any sense compared to years gone by.

Lift your game, Roby.

 

[Crankyhawk]

For round 2

Carry over profit $1.21 (so am already behind Roby in total $)
Outlay so far $5 (24.2% return)

Richmond $1.68
Essendon $2.90
St Kilda $1.91 (have GWS ever been even money before?)
Port $1.67
Freo $1.10
Sydney $1.43
Brisbane $3.60
Melbourne $6.50
Bulldogs $2.90

 

[swiftdog]

OK, so I've decided to put up some alternate rankings using the Colley Matrix System (I'll post a link up also). This system is very basic in nature and somewhat primitive so it will be interesting to see how it stacks up with a more comprehensive and detailed system like Roby's. The premise of the Colley system is simple - winning is (almost) all that matters. The system only takes into account wins/losses and strength of schedule. The biggest strength (but also the biggest weakness you could say) of the system is that it is purely objective based on sound mathematical principles (which you can read up on in the link). The cliff notes version of the system is that there are 9 ranking points shared amongst the 18 clubs. Better performed clubs get a higher share of the points and worse performed teams have a lower share of the points. It is likely to look very similar to the AFL ladder. At the beginning of the season, all teams are on 1/2 a point as no team is any stronger than any other - no matches have been played yet. However, now that round 1 has been and gone here are the post round 1 rankings:

1. Fremantle - 5/8 or .625
1. West Coast - 5/8 or .625
1. Essendon - 5/8 or .625
1. Hawthorn - 5/8 or .625
1. GWS - 5/8 or .625
1. Geelong - 5/8 or .625
1. Port Adelaide - 5/8 or.625
1. St.Kilda - 5/8 or .625
1. Gold Coast - 5/8 or .625
10. Richmond - 3/8 or .375
10. Melbourne - 3/8 or .375
10. Carlton - 3/8 or .375
10. Adelaide - 3/8 or .375
10. Sydney - 3/8 or .375
10. Brisbane - 3/8 or .375
10. North Melbourne - 3/8 or .375
10. Western Bulldogs - 3/8 or .375
10. Collingwood - 3/8 or .375

As you can see, all teams are either rated as number 1 or number 10. This is simply because all teams are either 1-0-0 or 0-0-1 and all the teams that are 1-0-0 have played teams that are 0-0-1 and vice-versa. In short, all the teams that won in round 1 have had the same strength of schedule as have all the teams that lost in round 1. Thus, this creates only 2 different ratings for teams so far. Naturally, as more games are played, more data will be available that creates a more comprehensive picture.

I figure I'll do some tipping as well. I didn't have any data to work with in round 1 so it's only fair to use the favourites I guess. This leaves 5/9 correct tips for the round I think from memory (correct me if I'm wrong please):

Fremantle def Collingwood
Port Adelaide def Carlton
Geelong def Adelaide
Hawthorn def Brisbane
West Coast def Bulldogs

Round 2 tips will be decided by the bookies favourite if teams are even in the rankings:
Richmond to defeat Carlton
Hawthorn to defeat Essendon
GWS to defeat St.Kilda
Port Adelaide to defeat Adelaide
Fremantle to defeat Gold Coast
Sydney to defeat Collingwood
Geelong to defeat Brisbane
West Coast to defeat Melbourne
North Melbourne to defeat Western Bulldogs


So there you have it. A completely different and purely objective set of rankings. I'll be interested to hear people's thoughts. More detailed information can be found at http://www.colleyrankings.com/matrate.pdf.

 

[El_Scorcho]

snip

What happens if you rank this sort of system over a rolling past 10 or so games?


Sent from my GT-I9300 using Tapatalk

 

[raskolnikov]

Wooden spoon favourites if we beat Hawthorn on Friday night!

 

[treefingers]

Can all the inferior mathematically based ranking systems be merged into another thread - it's distracting me from Roby's brilliance.

 

[Roby]

Wouldn't it have ended before the season started, since you do power rankings ahead of round 1? There were already 11 teams below the cut-off.

You want to leave some hope for everyone, at least for one round, no?

So these teams can win the flag, but have no chance of overtaking the top two?

They won't overtake the top two by round four. Plenty of time after that.

Dearest Roby,

I call upon your great Umpiring Wisdom. In the enterprising league football match between the "Eagles" of West Coast and the "Bulldogs" of, uh, Western, there were 30 free kicks and no doubt a great many non-calls. There has been spirited debate amongst aficionados of both clubs as to who received the most favourable treatment from the men in green.

On whose side did your benevolence rate this umpiring performance?

Yours faithfully,

-18 points Bulldogs.

I find this interesting becaue the one thing the North board can be relied upon (apart from calls to sack the coach and delist half our squad) is to whine like a 747 at the slightest hint of umpiring injustice. And yet this week I heard nary a peep from my confreres. Having said that none of us would have been in any mood to watch a replay, let alone pause and analyse the 20 free kicks and however many non-decisions, so I will defer to your better judgment.

Kangaroos -11 points. Bear in mind the injuries to Goldstein and Cunnington had a larger negative weighting.

Isn't WC supposed to go down in the Roby rankings after a win?

I find this awfully confusing

The Eagles have been ranked as high as 2nd in the rankings.

 

[Ochre]

[quote="Roby, post: 32227570, member: 66510] The Eagles have been ranked as high as 2nd in the rankings.[/quote]
In 1972 iirc

 

[Roby]

Power Rankings betting tips for Round 2

The rankings have had to take an extra couple of bucks to pay for the additional bets this round but it should prove to be a worthwhile investment. The $5 St Kilda bet to win against GWS is the biggest in rankings history as they are expected to put the Giants back into their place with a thrashing win.


St Kilda vs GWS WIN – $5 @ $1.95 Centrebet

Brisbane vs Geelong (-24.5) - $1.5 @ $1.99 Pinnacle

Essendon vs Hawthorn (-17.5) - $1.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Richmond vs Carlton (-5.5) - $1 @ $1.9 TAB

Melbourne vs West Coast (-40.5) - $1 @ $1.952 Pinnacle

Western Bulldogs vs North Melbourne (-18.5) - $1 @ $1.943 Pinnacle

Port Adelaide vs Adelaide (+7.5) - $0.5 @ $1.91 Centrebet

Fremantle vs Gold Coast (-39.5) - $0.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Sydney vs Collingwood (+16.5) - $0.5 @ $1.92 Sportsbet

Match previews up later tonight.

 

[boncer34]

Roby you don't start chasing when you win.

 

[barmy44]

Roby you don't start chasing when you win.

hasnt his system guaranteed him something like 500% increase on investment over the journey?

he shouldnt be chasing at all, he should be retired and applying his 'mathematical genius' in more pertinent areas.

 

[Lance Uppercut]

breathtaking

 

[Father Jack]

so are we out of premiership contention already?

 

[barmy44]

so are we out of premiership contention already?

yeah.

west coasts hypotenuse was originally drafted on a curved surface, as opposed to the flat surface on which hawthorn and fremantle have drafted theirs. as a result, when the rest was added, the total sum of west coasts 'premiership triangle' angles was actually 270º, well above the ideal sum of 180º that teams still in premiership contention, i.e. hawthorn and fremantle, maintain for their premiership triangles.

protest all you will, but its in the maths dude. good luck in 2015.