AFL R11

[I Lost My Keays]

Franklin should get a bag of goals

 

[laam]

Anyone who deals in absolutes will make a poor gambler.

 

[ricardogp]

First pre-team-announcement thoughts:

Sydney to cover the line (-10.5)
Port 40+
Freo to cover the line (-34.5)
Hawks to cover the line (-70.5)

Enright and Lonergan Out for Geelong!

Hmmm.. Glad I waited for the teams because I got on Sydney SU at $1.57 (now $1.45)
Not glad I waited because now the line is out to -14.5...

 

[Keystone agony]

Hmmm.. Glad I waited for the teams because I got on Sydney SU at $1.57 (now $1.45)
Not glad I waited because now the line is out to -14.5...

I dont really understand this. You getting on -10.5 is much better than -14.5

Geelong will bring in Smedts and SJ so they might come back in.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

Hmmm.. Glad I waited for the teams because I got on Sydney SU at $1.57 (now $1.45)
Not glad I waited because now the line is out to -14.5...

I got them at $1.54 , lucky haha

 

[ricardogp]

I dont really understand this. You getting on -10.5 is much better than -14.5

Geelong will bring in Smedts and SJ so they might come back in.

Yeah, I didn't post that right. I got the good odds on SU, but missed out on the - 10.5 line.

 

[chrisdon16]

Sportsbet highest margin of victory, hawks-gws is $1.80. Just me or a lock?

 

[Hamingja]

Geelong will bring in Smedts and SJ so they might come back in.

Geelong did well to keep the Enright news quiet. Taylor Hunt only played a half in the VFL so they must have known Enright was a non starter straight after the game on Friday night. Be interesting to see whether they promote Kolodjashnij to play as a tall defender. Doubt they will bring Smedts in after one game in the VFL.

 

[boyOboy]

Sportsbet highest margin of victory, hawks-gws is $1.80. Just me or a lock?

I know the Demons have been good defensively of late, but Port at their home ground just screams thrashing to me. $1.80 is great value, but not sure if it's a lock. Collingwood and St. Kilda could also be a pounding.

 

[KardiniaPark]

Enright and Lonergan Out for Geelong!

So what, Sydney don't have any decent forwards do they?

 

[coach31]

I know the Demons have been good defensively of late, but Port at their home ground just screams thrashing to me. $1.80 is great value, but not sure if it's a lock. Collingwood and St. Kilda could also be a pounding.

The Melbourne/Port match is in Alice Springs so weather conditions could mean a lower margin.

 

[boyOboy]

The Melbourne/Port match is in Alice Springs so weather conditions could mean a lower margin.

Oh, I see. Thought it was at Adelaide Oval for some reason. Yeah, may not be a huge win then.

 

[chrisdon16]

Collingwood and St. Kilda could also be a pounding.

I think the pies will win only by 30-40

 

[Willzzz]

I dont really understand SC aswell as others like foxy_dal dal and Willzzz however i have seen a few i dont mind. I do know that they sort of warrant 3300 points each game and it tends to suit players who play in winning games or teams for that given week. I also think its more related on winning clearances, contested posessions, impacting the scoreboard and generally just influence or impact on the game.

So im not betting big but i like
0.5U Barlow over 110.5 SC @1.87 (Sports/IAS)
He scored 112 against Geelong and the only times he has gone unders is on his return from injury. Against the dogs i feel fremantle should win pretty easily so will get more points. Has been improving each week.

0.5U Harvey Under 108.5 SC @1.87 (Sports/IAS)
Is avg 106 so thats already unders. But im expecting the eagles to win and also maybe give him a little bit of attention. He has had 2 huge scores which has really buffeted his avg up. Generally he seems unders that.

Another im looking at is Hodge Under 102.5 he looks sore and played down back against port. I think he will take this game pretty easy, maybe even subbed off early.

Was busy this morning so didn't get on any SC bets yet.
Would have definitely got on Harvey Unders, and possibly Barlow Overs.

They look good, although I personally would have gone bigger on the Harvey bet if I were you KA.

 

[Keystone agony]

Was busy this morning so didn't get on any SC bets yet.
Would have definitely got on Harvey Unders, and possibly Barlow Overs.

They look good, although I personally would have gone bigger on the Harvey bet if I were you KA.

I was about to after the reassuring thoughts from foxy and some more thinking/research but went back on and was 1.65

 

[Keystone agony]

I just couldnt resist some of that Geelong SU @2.85 on luxbet

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Was liking the cats but with those two outs think tippet will kick 4 Sydney 1-39 for me

 

[Willzzz]

I was about to after the reassuring thoughts from foxy and some more thinking/research but went back on and was 1.65

That was always going to come in. Harvey DT/SC bets come in as long as the line is 90+.
Punters have been burnt lately though, I know he just failed to cover the 102.5 DT line last week (after revision), but I know for sure that Harvey has cost punters a lot of money.
108.5 is a biggish line, but it is SC so he doesn't need necessarily need 28+ disposals to get there. I couldn't touch it at $1.65.
Did take a couple of others though.

 

[Keystone agony]

That was always going to come in. Harvey DT/SC bets come in as long as the line is 90+.
Punters have been burnt lately though, I know he just failed to cover the 102.5 DT line last week (after revision), but I know for sure that Harvey has cost punters a lot of money.
108.5 is a biggish line, but it is SC so he doesn't need necessarily need 28+ disposals to get there. I couldn't touch it at $1.65.
Did take a couple of others though.

Mcveigh, Sidebottom, Hodge Unders?

I noticed Barlow also went from 2.20 at unders into 2.00 which is good value for those that may have got on

 

[Willzzz]

Mcveigh, Sidebottom, Hodge Unders?

I noticed Barlow also went from 2.20 at unders into 2.00 which is good value for those that may have got on

Close.
I went Barlow Overs, Sidebottom and Hodge Unders.

Barlow was bs, i tried getting on for 0.5U @ $2.20, they let me on for 0.3U @ $2.20, I went AFK cause they were taking forever, came back and it timed-out.
And then they bring it down to $2, even though I wasn't allowed to get on, still took it anyway though cause $2 is value, WB don't get up many SC points to midfielders, look through their games.

 

[asanque]

I'm starting to think it's not worth the effort betting on these prop lines. With constant account restrictions and lines moving so much when one person puts money on it's getting ridiculous. I read that Pinnacle sports is opening an aussie site soon. This could be good as they don't ban people so hopefully they'll have some of these markets.

Pretty much the exact reason I stopped betting on these markets this year.

However, if you are fast and have an unrestricted account, there is money to be made.

 

[coach31]

I got on the Hodge unders. Didn't see a whole heap of value in the others. But I usually prefer the dt or head to heads anyway.

 

[Chism]

Cats +14.5
Demons +36.5
Blues -15.5
Bombers Win Under 39.5pts
West Coast -8.5
Crows Win Under 39.5pts.

$5 on it for a collect of $314.42. ( Sportingbet )

Demons i think are a chance at the line coming off their bye and Port coming off 2 tough wins so they may be complacent up in Alice Springs.

 

[iluvparis]

Anyone who deals in absolutes will make a poor gambler.

Absolutely spot on

 

[JohnnyDrama1]

Alright so I need a 3 leg multi all based on AFL games this weekend with TAB. I'm trying to get it as risk-free as possible paying a minimum of $5.
Some of the legs I'm considering are:
Essendon -8.5 - $1.90 (being an Essendon fan I reckon this will most likely happen)
Carlton -16.5 - $1.90
Sydney under 39.5 - $2.05
Adelaide under 39.5 - $2.15
WCE vs North either team under 15.5 points - $2.70

Cheers!