AFL Round 11 Brisbane Lions V Carlton Official Thread

[Hollow Knight]

Yeah but it ain't ceteris paribus, TBD...

Dude, I'm a student of economics... if you take away ceteris paribus, we have nothing! Our economic models will be useless, and the woman will mock us!

 

[lion4ever]

Not at all.

Toss a coin 10 times and you could very well get 4 heads, and 6 tails. But that isn't presenting a very strong case that tossing a coin is a 40/60 proposition.

Do it 1000 times and you'll get a figure much closer to 50:50.

Its science.

Ahhh, very nice point

I may look into a little more if i really want to

 

[Duritz]

the woman will mock us!

(think the word "will" is unnecessary in that sentence...)

I love economics. I love it almost as much as probabilities. IMO probabilities rule the universe. The universe is built on probabilities, and pretty much everything you ever do is dictated by them.

It's fine to use ceteris paribus, in fact it's a very large part of the probabilitical (inventing a word there) nature of what I do... but I am suggesting that it can also be used as a way to simplify things, (edit) beyond a reasonable amount of simplification.

 

[Duritz]

Oooh I see the coin toss example is here... I LOVE the coin toss example.

TBD worded it thusly:

"Toss a coin 10 times and you could very well get 4 heads, and 6 tails. But that isn't presenting a very strong case that tossing a coin is a 40/60 proposition.

Do it 1000 times and you'll get a figure much closer to 50:50."

And that is very true... but don't let that confuse you all that in 1000 coin tosses you'll get 500/500. OR, more accurately, don't for a moment think that in 1,000,000,000 (1 billion) coin tosses you'll get 500,000,000 (500 million) of each side, or in fact anything anywhere near it. You'll have millions between the two.

Anyway, that stuff starts so much stuff that is so unrelated to footy it's not funny, but it's fascinating nonetheless.

 

[mish33]

IMO probabilities rule the universe..

Had to laugh at this

 

[Duritz]

Had to laugh at this

In all seriousness, why?

 

[bigboyblue]

Not at all.

Toss a coin 10 times and you could very well get 4 heads, and 6 tails. But that isn't presenting a very strong case that tossing a coin is a 40/60 proposition.

Do it 1000 times and you'll get a figure much closer to 50:50.

Its science.

Ha, reminds me of the last time I read the words "It's science" on BF - someone was using it to explain why he didn't think Kellie Underwood was a good caller: "Women just have smaller brains. It's science." was the exact wording, I believe. And not a hint of irony from what I recall. But I digress...

Should be a good game Sat night. Hopefully those nasty Brown and Bradshaw chaps don't beat up on us too badly like they have in the past. And I'm genuinely afraid of Black and Power. For two players I think are right up there with the very best in the comp, I really don't think they get the credit they deserve.

With any luck, the Fev will improve on the glimpses of form he showed last week (by that i don't mean improve on the number of goals, I'd happily take six - just thought he was a bit in-and-out) and Eddie will step up after a couple of quiet ones. Like our ins. Austin was stiff but that'll happen when you're young... Um, so to speak.

 

[paulige]

Round 1 vs West Coast - No milestones
Round 2 vs Carlton - - - No milestones
Round 3 vs Sydney - - - No milestones
Round 4 vs Collingwood - No milestones
Round 5 vs Geelong - - - Joel Selwood (50)
Round 6 vs Essendon - - Dustin Fletcher (300)
Round 7 vs Richmond - - No milestones
Round 8 vs Adelaide - - Michael Doughty (150)
Round 9 vs St Kilda - - Lenny Hayes (200)
Round 10 vs Kangaroos - Andrew Swallow (50)
Round 11 vs Carlton - - Setanta o'hAilpin (50)

That 6/11 games assuming Irish isn't a late exclusion

44% of games against an opposition should include a milestone.
While atm,
55% of games against an opposition have included a milestone. (After Sat. night)

Sorry for getting a little too technical

Come on ya flog, for someone so hellbent on proving their statistics, you seem to have left out 1% (44+55 = 99). What happened to it? Where did it go???

 

[lion4ever]

Come on ya flog, for someone so hellbent on proving their statistics, you seem to have left out 1% (44+55 = 99). What happened to it? Where did it go???

Can this Bigfooty spud please be carded. I didn't want any trouble and this guy just comes in a calls me a flog. Card please?

 

[weevil]

I’d suggest you both settle down pronto.

A bit of banter is fine, but keep this sort of personal rubbish off the board.

 

[lion4ever]

My apologies,
Back to the game.

Thoughts on Scott Harding retaining his spot in the side?

 

[Duritz]

Thoughts on Scott Harding retaining his spot in the side?

Moral for the B'low.

 

[lions_den]

My apologies,
Back to the game.

Thoughts on Scott Harding retaining his spot in the side?

Looks like he's been given an extended run. Vossy probably said something along the lines of "you're place in the team is guaranteed for the next 5 weeks..." yadada. Who knows?

 

[Silvagnis]

Was probably Celtic_Pride. Did he send any death threats Weevil's way?

cp has been issuing more death threats against himself.

Was it Russell that toweled up Travis in Round 21 last year? Good to see him go out

Where's the sarcasm emoticon?

Strange that Carlton fought Robinson's 1 week suspension, given that he wasn't going to play this week anyway.

Robinson will play in the VFL after being cleared and won't have a record at the tribunal...

That's better than sitting in the stands.

I think the points will disappear at the end of 09 if Robinson doesn't face the MRP again.

I'll find it in my heart to forgive Robinson if he's rubbed out for running into Reimers in round 12.

 

[Old Den]

I'd be interested in seeing that basic maths.

Sounds like the law of averages to me - if it still exists.

Belay that - I just remembered that I didn't take the probable error of the least squares into account.

 

[joshhem]

Filling up:

Category 1 Available
Category 2 Single seats only
Cat 3 Unlicensed Alloc. Exhausted
General Reserved Single seats only
Cat 1 Unlicensed Available
Cat 2 Unlicensed Alloc. Exhausted
General Res Unlic Limited seats only
Gold Class Alloc. Exhausted

 

[irel]

How come Duritz gets the preferential treatment on BF? He gets to have his moniker in red regularly? What do I have to do to have mine changed to red? Explain yourself Duritz?

 

[Lace Out]

How come Duritz gets the preferential treatment on BF? He gets to have his moniker in red regularly? What do I have to do to have mine changed to red? Explain yourself Duritz?

I agree,they look quite fetching in red.

You probably have to pay extra or something.

 

[lions_den]

How come Duritz gets the preferential treatment on BF? He gets to have his moniker in red regularly? What do I have to do to have mine changed to red? Explain yourself Duritz?

Damn, looks like I'll have to take up his slack in bay 13 for the next week...as soon as my yellow runs out of course.

 

[lion4ever]

Duritz is hilarious
I'm sure the Carlton supporters are glad he's gone though

 

[Lets Roar like '44]

Well I give up on the whole Harding issue, its got me absolutely beat.

Selwood puts his head over the ball and now cant get a game, remember Matthews did the exact same thing a couple of years ago with Selwood.

Why drop Johnston for 1 game, seems to me Voss makes changes just for the hell of it.

On a brighter note hope we smash those cheating ass- holes down at Carlton and shut there stupid slogan up for another week!

Go Lions!!

 

[Black Flag]

Duritz is hilarious
I'm sure the Carlton supporters are glad he's gone though

I think most Carlton posters don't even know who he is. There are many repetitive trolls on B13 bagging Carlton.

On the game, I think the OP is right on the money... Brissy should get up, and I think it will be quite comfortable.

The inclusion of some experience will help us, but Brisbane are much more even right across the ground and have excellent ball winners, which is an area where Carlton are absolutely reliant. Break even in the midfield and Brisbane win.

Twin Towers (esp Bradshaw) will be too much for our young key defenders. Fev will need to kick > 6 or 7 for us to be in the ballpark.

Brisbane by 36.

 

[_hyphy]

I’d suggest you both settle down pronto.

A bit of banter is fine, but keep this sort of personal rubbish off the board.

Ya'll just got weeviled.

 

[Grimreepah]

Why drop Johnston for 1 game, seems to me Voss makes changes just for the hell of it.

I could understand if you disagreed with the decision, but I don't understand why you're so confused by it. He's a class player, and was BOG for the ressies. Hardly a surprise he was recalled.

And overall Voss has been reluctant to make changes, preferring to maintain unity within the team. It seems to me to be a very deliberate, and if I may say so - successful, selection strategy.

So IMO your comment is way off the mark.

 

[Marc Shmurf 3]

hey guys, any chance bradshaw will line up on fev tomorrow night, or is there someone else that will be able to go with him both in size and speed?

thanks