mattys123
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- Mar 24, 2008
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2012 AFL PREMIERSHIP SEASON
ROUND SIX
COLLINGWOOD VS WESTERN BULLDOGS
ETIHAD STADIUM
FRIDAY 4TH MAY 7.50PM
Weather;
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR022.loop.shtml#skip
Forecast; http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml
Radar; http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR022.loop.shtml#skip
Preview (Dave86);
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/newsfeatures/news/newsarticle/tabid/5586/newsid/134723/default.aspx
http://www.collingwoodfc.com.au/newsfeatures/news/newsarticle/tabid/5586/newsid/134723/default.aspx
My Thoughts;
Collingwood and the Western Bulldogs will face off in Melbourne on Friday Night in a game that is crucial to the success of both teams going forward in the 2012 AFL premiership season. These two sides have some recent history in finals against each other, with the Dogs saluting in the 2006 Elimination Final over the Magpies, and Collingwood returning the favour four years later with a win over the Bulldogs in the 2010 Qualifying final, on their way to their first flag in 20 years. Also, many of the recent home and away battles between these two sides have been very close to the very end, especially when the games have been played at this weeks venue, Etihad Stadium in the Docklands region of Melbourne.
Last week, on ANZAC day, Collingwood played in what many are calling the game of the year (so far), in front of a sell out crowd at the MCG, the Pies saluted by a point thanks to some late Jarryd Blair heroics, and some drama regarding the video review system. The Dogs have also gained some recent momentum, with wins over lowly Melbourne and the new Greater Western Sydney side righting the ship down at the Whitten Oval after a terrible 0-3 start to the season.
Both teams have been hit significantly by injuries, with the Dogs hit severely down back with the absence of Dale Morris and Tom Williams, while Collingwood has had a shocking start to the 2012 season injury wise, losing three first choice 22 players to season ending ACL's, the most recent being star inside midfielder Luke Ball. Along with the season ending injuries, Collingwood has also had recent problems with soft tissue injuries, with Tarrant, Thomas, Shaw, Reid and Didak all having recent injury setbacks.
But the news is better for Collingwood this week, as they seek to field their strongest outfit so far this season, with the return of Heath Shaw and Ben Reid, although they are still without several top players, such as Dale Thomas, Alan Didak and Chris Tarrant, who have not recovered fully from their injury concerns.
The Collingwood Football Club had a slow start to the season, losing two of it's first three games, including a ten goal loss to arch enemy Carlton in round 3, yet the last few weeks have shown encouraging signs for the men in black and white. With a comfortable, workmen like win over Port Adelaide in Melbourne, then that exhilarating one point win over the Bombers last Wednesday, which meant for the first time this year Collingwood found itself on the positive side of the win/loss ratio, with a 3-2 record after five rounds. And how the side was led by it's stars last week, with Dane Swan collecting the ANZAC day medal in a staggering performance, complete with a sarcastic tummy rub one great goal as a gesture to the media who have been very negative about his start to the season.
There have been plenty of other promising signs for Collingwood too, with the absences of some stars giving the opportunity for some players to step up and prove themselves, and no one has done this more then Lachlan Keefe. The 204cm defender from Queensland has made an immediate impact down back this year, and has played on, and negated such names as Hampson, Stewart and Ryder over the past few weeks. Also in the midfield, Dayne Beams and Steele Sidebottom seem to have finally taken that next step to becoming consistent senior mid-fielders, with both averaging over 20 possessions so far this season. But the good news story of 2012 so far has to go to Irishman Marty Clarke, who after a few years away from the game, has returned better then he ever was, no more so then his sensational tagging effort on Essendon midfielder Brent Stanton, which saw the in from Essendon ball gatherer kept to just two total disposals for the first half last Wednesday. Despite some negative comments from some senior members of the press (Yes, I'm talking about you David Parkin) Marty has shown he is easily in Collingwood's best 22, and if he can become that negating midfielder that Collingwood require, he may just be as vital to the side as just about anyone else moving forward.
There have been negatives for Collingwood though over the past few weeks, with the most obvious problem seeming to be opposition kick ins after Collingwood scores a behind. Over the past few seasons scoring a behind at Collingwood was seen as a blessing almost, as after nearly every opposition kick in the Collingwood forward press would keep the ball in it's forward half and another scoring opportunity would present itself almost immediately. But over the first five weeks, and even in the last two wins, teams have been able to score heavily from the kick ins, and there are probably a few reasons for this. The absence of star defenders like Chris Tarrant and Ben Reid can't be helping the final line of the forward press, but also there is no doubt AFL coaches, and thus their players have become more proficient in moving the ball quickly over the forward press and creating fast breaks out the back. I'm sure Nathan Buckley and the Collingwood coaching staff are working on this, but it is a significant problem that needs to be addressed soon.
The “X Factor” this week may well be ex Western Bulldogs senior coach Rodney Eade, who in his role as Football and Coaching Strategist is the main man when it comes to analysing the opposition anyway, and this week his presentation and advice to the coaching staff and players should be more detailed and more accurate then ever. Eade recruited almost all of the current Bulldogs list to the club, so he must know a fair bit about their individual strengths and weaknesses, and will play a key role in the dismantling of the Bulldogs on Friday Night.
Despite the injury toll, and the problems that do exist in parts of the game plan, Collingwood will be confident of extending their winning streak to three wins on Friday Night, and may well see this as a game to get back some of the lost percentage from the Carlton loss a few weeks ago.
Opposition Analysis.
The Western Bulldogs had a tough draw to start the 2012 AFL Premiership season, and after two rounds, despite decent performances against premiership contenders West Coast, and a fighting loss in Adelaide versus the Crows, they found themselves 0-2 leading into a must win match against St Kilda at Etihad Stadium in round 3. What happened next was very “un Bulldog” like to say the least, as they were massacred by the Saints to by 63 points, in a game that showed new coach Brendan McCartney just how far he had to go to turn this club back into the premiership contending club it was only a few years ago.
The Dogs have since somewhat recovered, notching much needed wins against Melbourne and the GWS Giants, but their first real test since that St Kilda debacle comes this Friday Night against Collingwood, in what truly is one of the few blockbuster home games the Western Bulldogs have each season. Under the roof, on a Friday Night in front of a national audience, this proud club has to show some of that customary fight, or risk watching their season turn into a rebuilding exercise, rather then a fight for a position in the finals.
If the Dogs have a strength, it has to be their midfield, led ably by club captain Matthew Boyd and his perennial tough partner Daniel Cross, the midfield is the area in which the Western Bulldogs will need to excel if they are to push Collingwood. When the Bulldogs are at their best, their two other star midfielders, Adam Cooney and Ryan Griffen are usually the players who are assisting in making them better then average in this area. This season, due to injury concerns, both haven't really got going and their output has been somewhat restricted, but their talent is unquestionable and if they are near full fitness the Dogs midfield will be formidable on Friday Night. The Dogs also are trying to add some depth through youth in the midfield, with the likes of Wallis, Smith, Liberatore and Addison being rotated through the midfield at different stages. They also have Liam Picken, one of the best defensive midfielders in the AFL, who is sure to be given the task of minding one of the two superstars for Collingwood, Dane Swan or Scott Pendlebury. In the ruck Will Minson has probably started this season as good as he ever has, although there isn't much assistance, with second ruckman Jordan Roughead only averaging about 7 hitouts a game. Minson does have a good history against the Pies though, and will be asked to go head to head with Darren Jolly for the majority of the night. The answer may be Ayce Cordy, who showed last week that he could be a decent assistant to Will Minson, in a move that may see Minson moved forward at times.
The Bulldogs backline, as stated before has been badly hit by injuries, and with the continuing absence of Dale Morris and Tom Williams, the responsibility in containing Collingwood's two forward talls, Chris Dawes and the super strong Travis Cloke will fall to the likely trio of Brian Lake, Ryan Hargrave and Jordan Roughead. The backline has actually held up quite well even with the injury concerns, with star half back Robert Murphy playing a key role in leading and assisting that backline in times of need. Brian Lake has also looked better over the past few weeks after a disastrous 2011 season, and will be given the first crack at Travis Cloke you would assume.
The Western Bulldogs forward line has been the biggest concern so far this season though, and despite some big names players being up forward, the results simply have not been evident, or the output anywhere near expected over the first five rounds. Jarryd Grant doesn't seem to have developed from two to three seasons ago, while enigmatic forward Shaun Higgins should be tearing games apart at his age, but it just doesn't seem to be happening. Even promising young tall Liam Jones, who was fifth in contested marking last year in the AFL, has struggled early on, and despite leading the goal kicking at the club, with 6 goals, hasn't reached the level most Dogs supporters probably would have expected yet. The names on the Dogs forward line would leave you to believe it is a threatening lineup, but with Giansiracusa, Jones, Higgins, Grant, Dalhaus, Cordy and Minson up forward, it really hasn't reached any great levels so far in 2012. Dalhaus may well be the best story to come out of the Dogs out of last season and the beginning of this season, and with Collingwood having trouble with small forwards in recent weeks, he may become one of the biggest concerns this Friday Night.
The Bulldogs had some selection issues of their own, and have chosen to go with Giansiracusa and Hargrave as their ins, with Grant (hip complaint) and Cordy (back) making way for this clash. That does leave the Dogs a tad small up forward as Grant had a tendency to be that third tall, even if his form had been poor recently.
Key Matchups;
Boyd vs Swan
Superstar mid-fielders going to head to head in prime time, wouldn't we love to see this? Both are back in top form too, with Boyd leading from the front while Swan returned to his absolute Brownlow medal winning form on ANZAC day. They won't line up side by side too often, but they may find themselves fighting over the ball on many an occasion, which would be worth paying admission alone to watch.
Lake vs Cloke
Brian Lake is the obvious first matchup against the man mountain that is Travis Cloke. Both also have regained some form over the past few weeks after a slow start to the season, and Cloke showed against Port Adelaide that he likes playing under the roof in near perfect conditions, as it just enhances his contested marking ability. Lake at his best has played on and negated the very best forwards in the AFL, so this could be a classic matchup.
Minson vs Jolly
Yes, some have suggested Ayce Cordy as the Bulldogs number one ruck, but if they are serious about winning, then big Will Minson is the man that has to be asked to compete in majority of ruck contests against the dual premiership winning ruckman. Jolly returned to his very best last Wednesday, and against a more old styled ruck then he has been facing, he may well continue his ruck dominance this week.
Picken vs Pendlebury
Opposition sides seem to be locked in on playing their number one tagger on Scott now, after Andrew Carrazzo contained Pendlebury so well in round three. But even last week, when many thought Essendon's Heath Hocking contained Pendlebury, the reigning Copeland Trophy winner still managed 34 possessions and was arguably only behind Swan in terms of who was best on ground. Picken is about as good as taggers come now though, so Pendlebury will be in for a tough time on Friday Night.
Teams;
Tip.
With Collingwood likely to regain the services of several of it's stars for Friday Night's game, I can't see any other result then a Collingwood win. The Magpies showed glimpses of their best against Essendon, one of the most in form sides of the competition, and against the struggling Bulldogs the Pies midfielders should be able to win the all important contested possession count, which leads to Collingwood winning more games then it loses. The Dogs will be plucky though, it's too important of a game for the club as a whole for them to lay down and die like they did a few weeks ago against St Kilda, an several of the more experienced players will no doubt want to show Rodney Eade what they are still capable of doing on the big stage.
Collingwood's forward line may be the biggest problem for the Bulldogs this week though, with the Dogs absences and lack of quality tall defenders, if Chris Dawes was ever to break out of his current form slump, it would be this week you would assume. Ultimately though, Collingwood has more class and depth in every area of the ground, and while the Bulldogs will put up a fight, the premiership contending Magpies should run out comfortable winners.
PIES BY 45
VFL
Collingwood's VFL side has the bye this weekend, meaning all our youngsters and fringe player get a week to rest up before getting back into action next weekend.
BLACK AND WHITE SHOW
This weeks host is none other then Possum Eyes himself, Alan Toovey.
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GO PIES.
