AFL Team of the 21st Century (Rolling)

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PhatBoy said:
Eddie Betts.
Lance Franklin.
Tom Hawkins.
Josh Kennedy
Jeremy Cameron
Gunston
Breust

There are a ton of players in that period who if someone said to me ‘who is the most desires forward you could put in a side’ I would name before Martin.

I just find it a very odd claim.
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I am beginning to see why. So why do you say Martin is rightfully in the team of the century and may even be the first picked if you have a load of forwards better than him just in the last 5 years alone? Or do you have him in the best small handful of inside mids this century?

You are not making much sense.

By the way, I don’ think you would find too many people to select all those players as forwards before picking Martin as a pure forward in a rep team from 2017 onwards. That is a serious plot losing statement by you. It is like you have not noticed what Martin has done to your own team amongst others in a big number of finals in that time, many times in the very games when players on your list could not get a kick to save themselves.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
I am beginning to see why. So why do you say Martin is rightfully in the team of the century and may even be the first picked if you have a load of forwards better than him just in the last 5 years alone? Or do you have him in the best small handful of inside mids this century?

You are not making much sense.

By the way, I don’ think you would find too many people to select all those players as forwards before picking Martin as a pure forward in a rep team from 2017 onwards. That is a serious plot losing statement by you. It is like you have not noticed what Martin has done to your own team amongst others in a big number of finals in that time, many times in the very games when players on your list could not get a kick to save themselves.
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‘Your first selection has to be a forward.’

‘I’ll pick Dustin Martin.’

Sorry but I don’t think many people are saying that.

They might say ‘I’ll pick Martin first and then look at the balance of the side and he might end up on a flank’ but I don’t think you’ll find a lot of people when pressed and they have to pick a forward with one lone selection from any period not just 2017 onwards, and they’re picking Martin.

Sorry but losing the plot isn’t suggesting that a non forward who occasionally plays there and plays well, is better placed to be picked than a pure forward if you can only choose one.
 
PhatBoy said:
‘Your first selection has to be a forward.’

‘I’ll pick Dustin Martin.’

Sorry but I don’t think many people are saying that.

They might say ‘I’ll pick Martin first and then look at the balance of the side and he might end up on a flank’ but I don’t think you’ll find a lot of people when pressed and they have to pick a forward with one lone selection from any period not just 2017 onwards, and they’re picking Martin.

Sorry but losing the plot isn’t suggesting that a non forward who occasionally plays there and plays well, is better placed to be picked than a pure forward if you can only choose one.
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I understand what you are saying and I am happy to disagree on it, I think you seriously under-rate Martin’s forward play. He is an absolutely top class forward, he has put that beyond any shadow of a doubt for me, not for you. If you can live with that then I certainly can. 😁

You do have me entirely intrigued as to where he fits into your team of the century though, if not as a forward, which he clearly cannot be as he is not even in your best 7 forwards of the last 5 years. So where exactly are you playing him in your team of the century?
 

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Meteoric Rise said:
I understand what you are saying and I am happy to disagree on it, I think you seriously under-rate Martin’s forward play. He is an absolutely top class forward, he has put that beyond any shadow of a doubt for me, not for you. If you can live with that then I certainly can. 😁

You do have me entirely intrigued as to where he fits into your team of the century though, if not as a forward, which he clearly cannot be as he is not even in your best 7 forwards of the last 5 years. So where exactly are you playing him in your team of the century?
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Lol. The most goals he has ever kicked in a seasom is only 33. Best season was only 1.5 goals per game.

ablett and danger have had far better seasons then that playing mostly as midfielders.

doesnt make fowards for me. Those numbers are just too low. Either midfield or resting on the bench.
 
Seeds said:
Lol. The most goals he has ever kicked in a seasom is only 33. Best season was only 1.5 goals per game.

ablett and danger have had far better seasons then that playing mostly as midfielders.

doesnt make fowards for me. Those numbers are just too low. Either midfield or resting on the bench.
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37
 
Trav 20 said:
37
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That hardly changes my point. And he only got to that level cos he played 25 games that season. Still an average of less then 1.5 goals per game. In his best ever goal kicking season.

his goal assist numbers arent elite either.

dustin martin is a classic case of peak end effect. he has played a couple of good grand finals up foward and we think he has that dominance all the time. But he simply doesnt.

dustin martin averages 24 disposal, 1.1 goals and 0.75 assists per game.

in the foward line Im taking steve johnson instead who averages 19 disposals, 1.8 goals and 0.9 goals assists per game.

and as martin enters his twilight years his average career stats per game are only going to get worse.

martin can go to the midfield or bench.
 
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A Rance.....M Scarlett...C Enright
A McLeod...J Leppitsch...L Hodge
N Buckley.....S Black.....M Voss(c)
D Martin.....N Riewoldt...J Akermanis
B Johnson...L Franklin....S Milne

D Cox...C Judd...G Ablett

A Goodes, M Pavlich, M Ricciuto, N Fyfe

Coach: A Clarkson
 
This Dustin Martin argument has gotten a little strange for me.

Both posters (and most people in general) agree he deserves selection in the side.

Whether he is the best forward of a given period or not I don't think matters tbh. You pick him for his ability to dominate the midfield and to do so when pushing forward. He doesn't have to be the best midfielder or the best forward - he can be the best combination of both - which is typically what a half forward flanker is these days anyway.

It's like the old arguments of 'non specific mid-fwd' doesn't deserve AA because he gets less possessions than full time midfielders and less goals than full time forwards. Well of course he does because he splits his role - he also gets more possessions than most forwards and more goals than most mids because he has a split role.

Dusty has done enough to earn selection in this side and I think most agree. The rest is irrelevant IMO.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
I for one have argued Chapman is genuinely in the running for a small forward spot in this team so I don’t know what you are on about. Chapman’s achievements doesn’t in any way diminish Dusty’s claims to being selected as a small/mid sized forward in this team on merit, excluding his midfield achievements. You seem to be arguing Martin is in the team, but not as a mid, but also specialist small forwards have better claims than him to a small forward position.

Where are you picking him and using him in your team precisely?

Your sentence highlighted above illustrates the error in your thinking about this, imo.

Martin has been deployed in a forward role in a critical mass of the biggest games you can play against the best of opposition to devastating effect. His strike rate of tearing big games apart in this role would far outweigh a player “doing it 50-100 times” in his career from 250 matches against a wider selection of opponents that on balance would be way weaker, unless those players also had a similar strike rate in the biggest games. Martin in his peak games in big finals has AVERAGED around 4 goals+goal assists. Which small forwards have done better than that 50-100 times in their careers exactly?

Well, Eddie Betts got 4 or more goals + goals assists in 96 of his 350 games. A bit better strike rate than one in every four games he played. I am going to guess that no other specialist small forward in history has beaten that, certainly not in the AFL era, or got near it. Betts has 46 goals+goal assists in 13 finals but only every played near goal in those games. Betts got 4 or more goals+goals assists in 8 of his 13 finals. This is very high for a small forward.

Martin has 44 goals + goal assists from his 15 finals. But has spent most of his time away from goals overall. So his strike rate when forward would appear to be roughly double that of Betts, who is incredibly prolific. Martin has 4 or more goals + goal assists in 6 of his 15 finals but had a couple of shortened games in there, and of course quite a few when he barely spent time forward. Chapman for comparison got 4 or more goals + goals assists in 5 of his 22 finals. Two of those were in massive walkover wins in the 2007 finals series. If you have to pick a guy for a small mid forward goal to play in a single big game, are you picking Betts, Martin, or Chapman for that role. Of those 3, I am going:

1 Martin(without hesitation)
2 Betts
3 Chapman

But in any event I would have Cyril Rioli before Chapman.

Note, Chapman across his whole career averaged under 2.14 goals+goals assists and 18.5 disposals across his 22 finals. Martin averages 2.93 goals+goal assists and 22.5 disposals across all his 15 finals. They are not even in the same hemisphere. Chapman I thought was a fantastic player, but you have had to do some serious contortions with his record, accumulated in much high scoring team performances than Martin’s, to try to support your claim Martin’s achievements forward in finals are somehow insufficient to base my claim on.
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I hadn't previously analysed goals + goal assists in finals, so thanks for the concept.

Dangerfield isn't overly high in this stat, so I was curious to look up one of his contemporaries in Nathan Fyfe. Fyfe has had 11 from his 11 finals. Not great either from such an esteemed player. It made me think that having a match winner elevate himself in finals is pretty important to winning a flag, unless perhaps you've got a superstar team like the Lions from the early 00s (haven't checked their individuals tallies). It's also made me value Petracca's 11 from 3 finals more than I previously would. He's matched Fyfe from 8 less finals in just this series alone and was no doubt pivotal in what we did in September. And maybe why Danger and Fyfe don't have a medallion, although that may be unfair.
 
Seeds said:
Well why post something irrelevant to the point being made unless you get some weird satisfaction from correcting technicalities. Like posters who weirdly correct peoples spelling errors even though everyone knew what they meant.
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Stats need to be accurate, otherwise they're not worth posting.

It was just a helping hand.
 
B: Corey Enright - Brian Lake - Matthew Scarlett
HB: Andrew McLeod - Alex Rance - Luke Hodge
C: Nathan Buckley - Sam Mitchell - Chris Judd
HF: Dustin Martin - Matthew Pavlich - Steve Johnson
F: Cyril Rioli - Nick Riewoldt - Lance Franklin
R: Max Gawn - Gary Ablett Jr - Patrick Dangerfield
I: Simon Black - Scott Pendlebury - Mark Ricciuto - Adam Goodes
 

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Trav 20 said:
I hadn't previously analysed goals + goal assists in finals, so thanks for the concept.

Dangerfield isn't overly high in this stat, so I was curious to look up one of his contemporaries in Nathan Fyfe. Fyfe has had 11 from his 11 finals. Not great either from such an esteemed player. It made me think that having a match winner elevate himself in finals is pretty important to winning a flag, unless perhaps you've got a superstar team like the Lions from the early 00s (haven't checked their individuals tallies). It's also made me value Petracca's 11 from 3 finals more than I previously would. He's matched Fyfe from 8 less finals in just this series alone and was no doubt pivotal in what we did in September. And maybe why Danger and Fyfe don't have a medallion, although that may be unfair.
Click to expand...

I guess it is only part of the overall picture of a player's performance, but in the end there is nothing more telling than goals or goal assists or goals saved - but the latter would be like the LBW of football, you would have to impute that a goal would have occurred had it not been saved.

I think some posters and footy supporters in general are still stuck in the old 1970’s Sunday Observer stats showing a player had 18 kicks 7 handballs, 4 marks, and scored 3 goals 2 behinds. Many players of the era were also stuck in those stats and that was all they ever tried to accumulate, kicks, marks, handballs, and shots at goal. In the beautifully nicknamed “Hungry” Bartlett’s case, he even dispensed with the handballs and just tried to accumulate kicks. Shepherds, tackles, 1%ers, smothers, goal assists, spoils, defensive pressure and so on, well in Bartlett’s case you could just forget those altogether. Many other players built their games along similar lines, to a greater or lesser degree.

The footy world has changed, first slowly, then quickly, and now completely. Now with so much video analysis showing the effect of certain actions in passages of play, players are expected to make whatever play gives their team the best chance to score or save goals. And the data collected has now changed to be much more advanced as well. And part of that change was the recording of that vital little statistic called goal assists. To some extent, we can now see who does the real damage. And players like Marin and Petracca do real damage.

While there is some rain in the cricket, let’s look at a few comparisons of players' best two seasons in context to see who does the damage in terms of scoreboard impact compared to time spent forward….

For some context at the top let’s list Coleman Medallist Harold MacKay 2021 season at the top, but then shift focus to some of the small forwards and mid/forwards being discussed in this thread.


Player and Year and Player AgePlayer Games played in that seasonPlayer Season Disposals AveragePlayer GoalsPlayer Goal AssistsPlayer Goals+Goal AssistsTotal goals scored by player’s team in games he playedPlayer Goal+Goal Assists % of goals scored in the games he played
Harold McKay 2021 Coleman Medallist, 23yo199.75866422329%
Gary Ablett Jnr, 2010, 25yo2431.544155938915%
Gary Ablett Jnr, 2012, 27yo2133.7526194518824%
Dustin Martin, 2011, 19yo2222.133205328718.5%
Dustin Martin, 2017, 26yo2529.7537296633120%
Christian Petracca, 2021, 25yo2529.229194832315%
Christian Petracca, 2017, 21yo221926194530215%
Jake Stringer, 2021, Essendon, 26yo191541135423723%
Jake Stringer, 2015, Bulldogs, 21yo221556197530824%
Steve Johnson, 2010, Geelong, 26yo2218.663248737823%
Steve Johnson, 2011, Geelong, 27yo2322.3350318139021%
Paul Chapman, 2004, Geelong, 22yo251438165432816.5%
Paul Chapman, 2009, Geelong, 27yo202737195630718%
Eddie Betts, Adelaide, 2016, 29yo2413.575249939625%
Eddie Betts, 2012, Carlton, 25yo221348257329924%
Cyril Rioli, 2011, 21yo191629295829520%
Cyril Rioli, 2015, 25yo241642287039318%
Stephen Milne, 2005, 25yo241161177837421%
Stephen Milne, 2012, 32yo221356197534522%
Patrick Dangerfield, 2017, Geelong, 27yo243045206533519%
Patrick Dangerfield, 2020, Geelong, 30yo21*(80% time games)26*(multiplied by 1.25 to adjust)1723*50(adjusted)*275(adjusted)18%

So when we look at it in context it looks a bit different to just saying a certain player has never kicked more than x goals in a season or another player kicked over 40 goals y times.

Note I have chosen each player’s most prolific season and also what I considered to be their best season relative to their team’s goals kicked.

Looking at this, we can see that even despite 2021 Coleman Medallist McKay’s lack of goal assists, none of these very high calibre small forwards/mid forwards are challenging his last or second last touch on 29% of Carlton’s 2021 goals.

Betts comes closest with 24 and 25% in his best two seasons. But of course he was a stay at home specialist goal sneak and basically played all his footy with the role of scoring or assisting goals. His numbers are prolific and he stands out above other players as a pure goal sneak.

Stringer and Milne were also mainly stay near goals forwards and we see this in their lower disposal averages, and their best score impact seasons recording the last or second last touch on 21-24% of their teams goals. Stringer spent a fair bit of time attending centre bounces in 2021 of course so his direct hand in 23% of his team’s goals in games he played was noteworthy.

Johnson is an interesting one. In 2010 & 2011 he appears to have shot the lights out with a direct hand in 21 & 23% of his team’s goals whilst amassing disposal averages around 19 and 22. But there is a bit of a trick to him in these seasons. He is the master of the unnecessary goal(sure he kicked plenty of necessary ones as well before Cats supporters jump all over me.) In 2010 he got 53 goals+goal assists in 10 games against teams who did not make finals. In the other 12 matches v finals teams he got a respectable but unremarkable 34 goals+goal assists. In 2011 it was 43 goals + goal assists in 8 games v non-finalists including an eye-watering 17 v Mark Neeld’s hapless Demons and 16 in 2 games v the first year Suns. In the other 15 games v finalists he got 38 goals+goals assists. So his numbers in his most prolific two seasons are no doubt hugely inflated by him and the Carts beating up weak opponents. To underline this his finals record of 61 goals+ goal assists in 26 games is below the often maligned(for lack of scoring impact) Rioli’s finals average.

Ablett Jnr with a relatively modest looking 26 goals in 2012 at 2nd year Suns, actually had a massive scoring impact season relative to his team’s performance. He had a direct hand in 24% of their goals - Betts like numbers - but while accumulating 33 disposals per match. The trouble with Ablett Jnr seems to be his finals performances. 23 disposal average and 1.33 goals+goal assists is well below his overall career numbers indicating he was not what you would call a “big game player.”

Cyril Rioli had a much better scoring impact than people seem to give him credit for, and was very much a big game player, his averages rising in finals.

Petracca still has a way to go to rival the others for scoring impact across whole seasons, but the next few years he will be in his prime so I expect good things from him. His big finals performances are already putting some of the more prolific guys listed to shame.

Martin’s scoring impact as a 19yo in 2011 looks unrivalled, amongst these guys at least. In his second AFL season he had a direct hand in 18% of Richmond’s goals, likely playing a bit more forward than midfield as this was prior to him having the fabled midfielder’s “tank.” Martin’s 2017 as we know was phenomenal, but averaging 30 disposals he also deigned to have a direct hand in 20% of Richmond’s season goals, 66 in all. You can see that on the goal assist front Martin and particularly Rioli stand out, only bettered by Johnson’s circle work inflated figure in 2011.

It would also be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge Dangerfield’s 2 very respectable scoring impact seasons in 2017 and 2020 when he had a direct hand in 18 & 19% of the Cats’ goals. What a shame he forgets the way from the change rooms to the ground at half time in finals. 😉

So for my small and medium forwards, Betts, Rioli, Martin, Petracca - the last 2 spending time in the midfield, and I will need to find one more somewhere along the line. Current youngsters like Pickett and Bolton I think will come right into calculations in the next 10 seasons or so, so I might just reserve a spot for one of them. 😁. Pickett already has a 49 goal+ goal assist season on his resume in his second year. Bolton had a lazy 43 in 20 games this season plus he belted the sh!t out of some bloke who was hassling Dan Rioli’s missus. 😍😍
 
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Seeds said:
That hardly changes my point. And he only got to that level cos he played 25 games that season. Still an average of less then 1.5 goals per game. In his best ever goal kicking season.

his goal assist numbers arent elite either.

dustin martin is a classic case of peak end effect. he has played a couple of good grand finals up foward and we think he has that dominance all the time. But he simply doesnt.

dustin martin averages 24 disposal, 1.1 goals and 0.75 assists per game.

in the foward line Im taking steve johnson instead who averages 19 disposals, 1.8 goals and 0.9 goals assists per game.

and as martin enters his twilight years his average career stats per game are only going to get worse.

martin can go to the midfield or bench.
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I am taking Steve Johnson too if it is v 2011 Gold Coast or 2011 Melbourne. 😁

In a game that matters there is not even an argument to be had.
 
Meteoric Rise said:
I am taking Steve Johnson too if it is v 2011 Gold Coast or 2011 Melbourne. 😁

In a game that matters there is not even an argument to be had.
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classic case of posting something you have no idea about and hoping you were right.


johnson played 4 grand finals. 2 of them extremely restricted by injury (he was only playing in 2 of them cos it was a GF). Johnson won a norm smith in 2007 and probably would of had a norm smith in 2011 playing on one leg if he didnt have to go off the ground for 15 mins for an injection in the 3rd. In the only other final he was fit he had 34 disposals and a goal.

johnson has also dominated numerous other finals and averages 1.7 goals and 20 dispsoals a game. This compares to martin who averages 1.5 goals and 22 disposals per final. I.e their finals are basically equivalent although johnsons played far more of them And proven to be the better goal scorer in finals too.
 
Seeds said:
classic case of posting something you have no idea about and hoping you were right.


johnson played 4 grand finals. 2 of them extremely restricted by injury (he was only playing in 2 of them cos it was a GF). Johnson won a norm smith in 2007 and probably would of had a norm smith in 2011 playing on one leg if he didnt have to go off the ground for 15 mins for an injection in the 3rd. In the only other final he was fit he had 34 disposals and a goal.

johnson has also dominated numerous other finals and averages 1.7 goals and 20 dispsoals a game. This compares to martin who averages 1.5 goals and 22 disposals per final. I.e their finals are basically equivalent although johnsons played far more of them And proven to be the better goal scorer in finals too.
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This feels like the classic Charlie Daniels Band song The Devil Went Down to Georgia. Selectively and favourably listing Johnson’s finals record as you did, I was thinking well that’s pretty good old son. 😁

But you are comparing him to Dustin Martin. Even the devil in the song had the decency to bow when he knew he’d been beat. 😎

 
PhatBoy said:
You literally got shown in a post by me how effective Johnson was in big games. Either you’re taking the piss or that is one of the dumbest comments I’ve read
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You are not taking account of the post I was responding to.

I showed Johnson’s best goal involvement seasons in the table in my post above. His record is excellent. But looks better at first glance than it actually is. There is nothing wrong with mentioning that, it is true.

PhatBoy Wasn’t it Chapman’s golden finals run you “chapmioned” to me in your post????
 
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Meteoric Rise said:
I guess it is only part of the overall picture of a player's performance, but in the end there is nothing more telling than goals or goal assists or goals saved - but the latter would be like the LBW of football, you would have to impute that a goal would have occurred had it not been saved.

I think some posters and footy supporters in general are still stuck in the old 1970’s Sunday Observer stats showing a player had 18 kicks 7 handballs, 4 marks, and scored 3 goals 2 behinds. Many players of the era were also stuck in those stats and that was all they ever tried to accumulate, kicks, marks, handballs, and shots at goal. In the beautifully nicknamed “Hungry” Bartlett’s case, he even dispensed with the handballs and just tried to accumulate kicks. Shepherds, tackles, 1%ers, smothers, goal assists, spoils, defensive pressure and so on, well in Bartlett’s case you could just forget those altogether. Many other players built their games along similar lines, to a greater or lesser degree.

The footy world has changed, first slowly, then quickly, and now completely. Now with so much video analysis showing the effect of certain actions in passages of play, players are expected to make whatever play gives their team the best chance to score or save goals. And the data collected has now changed to be much more advanced as well. And part of that change was the recording of that vital little statistic called goal assists. To some extent, we can now see who does the real damage. And players like Marin and Petracca do real damage.

While there is some rain in the cricket, let’s look at a few comparisons of players' best two seasons in context to see who does the damage in terms of scoreboard impact compared to time spent forward….

For some context at the top let’s list Coleman Medallist Harold MacKay 2021 season at the top, but then shift focus to some of the small forwards and mid/forwards being discussed in this thread.


Player and Year and Player AgePlayer Games played in that seasonPlayer Season Disposals AveragePlayer GoalsPlayer Goal AssistsPlayer Goals+Goal AssistsTotal goals scored by player’s team in games he playedPlayer Goal+Goal Assists % of goals scored in the games he played
Harold McKay 2021 Coleman Medallist, 23yo199.75866422329%
Gary Ablett Jnr, 2010, 25yo2431.544155938915%
Gary Ablett Jnr, 2012, 27yo2133.7526194518824%
Dustin Martin, 2011, 19yo2222.133205328718.5%
Dustin Martin, 2017, 26yo2529.7537296633120%
Christian Petracca, 2021, 25yo2529.229194832315%
Christian Petracca, 2017, 21yo221926194530215%
Jake Stringer, 2021, Essendon, 26yo191541135423723%
Jake Stringer, 2015, Bulldogs, 21yo221556197530824%
Steve Johnson, 2010, Geelong, 26yo2218.663248737823%
Steve Johnson, 2011, Geelong, 27yo2322.3350318139021%
Paul Chapman, 2004, Geelong, 22yo251438165432816.5%
Paul Chapman, 2009, Geelong, 27yo202737195630718%
Eddie Betts, Adelaide, 2016, 29yo2413.575249939625%
Eddie Betts, 2012, Carlton, 25yo221348257329924%
Cyril Rioli, 2011, 21yo191629295829520%
Cyril Rioli, 2015, 25yo241642287039318%
Stephen Milne, 2005, 25yo241161177837421%
Stephen Milne, 2012, 32yo221356197534522%
Patrick Dangerfield, 2017, Geelong, 27yo243045206533519%
Patrick Dangerfield, 2020, Geelong, 30yo21*(80% time games)26*(multiplied by 1.25 to adjust)1723*50(adjusted)*275(adjusted)18%

So when we look at it in context it looks a bit different to just saying a certain player has never kicked more than x goals in a season or another player kicked over 40 goals y times.

Note I have chosen each player’s most prolific season and also what I considered to be their best season relative to their team’s goals kicked.

Looking at this, we can see that even despite 2021 Coleman Medallist McKay’s lack of goal assists, none of these very high calibre small forwards/mid forwards are challenging his last or second last touch on 29% of Carlton’s 2021 goals.

Betts comes closest with 24 and 25% in his best two seasons. But of course he was a stay at home specialist goal sneak and basically played all his footy with the role of scoring or assisting goals. His numbers are prolific and he stands out above other players as a pure goal sneak.

Stringer and Milne were also mainly stay near goals forwards and we see this in their lower disposal averages, and their best score impact seasons recording the last or second last touch on 21-24% of their teams goals. Stringer spent a fair bit of time attending centre bounces in 2021 of course so his direct hand in 23% of his team’s goals in games he played was noteworthy.

Johnson is an interesting one. In 2010, 11 he appears to have shot the lights out with a direct hand in 21 & 23% of his team’s goals whilst amassing disposal averages around 19 and 22. But there is a bit of a trick to him in these seasons. He is the master of the unnecessary goal(sure he kicked plenty of necessary ones as well before Cats supporters jump all over me.) In 2010 he got 53 goals+goal assists in 10 games against teams who did not make finals. In the other 12 matches v finals teams he got a respectable but unremarkable 34 goals+goal assists. In 2011 it was 43 goals + goal assists in 8 games v non-finalists including an eye-watering 17 v Mark Neeld’s hapless Demons and 16 in 2 games v the first year Suns. In the other 15 games v finalists he got 38 goals+goals assists. So his numbers in his most prolific two seasons are no doubt hugely inflated by him and the Carts beating up weak opponents. To underline this his finals record of 61 goals+ goal assists in 26 games is below the often maligned(for lack of scoring impact) Rioli’s finals average.

Ablett Jnr with a relatively modest looking 26 goals in 2012 at 2nd year Suns, actually had a massive scoring impact season relative to his team’s performance. He had a direct hand in 24% of their goals - Betts like numbers - but while accumulating 33 disposals per match. The trouble with Ablett Jnr seems to be his finals performances. 23 disposal average and 1.33 goals+goal assists is well below his overall career numbers indicating he was not what you would call a “big game player.”

Cyril Rioli had a much better scoring impact than people seem to give him credit for, and was very much a big game player, his averages rising in finals.

Petracca still has a way to go to rival the others for scoring impact across whole seasons, but the next few years he will be in his prime so I expect good things from him. His big finals performances are already putting some of the more prolific guys listed to shame.

Martin’s scoring impact as a 19yo in 2011 looks unrivalled, amongst these guys at least. In his second AFL season he had a direct hand in 18% of Richmond’s goals, likely playing a bit more forward than midfield as this was prior to him having the fabled midfielder’s “tank.” Martin’s 2017 as we know was phenomenal, but averaging 30 disposals he else deigned to have a direct hand in 20% of Richmond’s season goals, 66 in all. You can see that on the goal assist front Martin and particularly Rioli stand out, only bettered by Johnson’s circle work inflated figure in 2011.

It would also be remiss if we didn’t acknowledge Dangerfield’s 2 very respectable scoring impact seasons in 2017 and 2020 when he had a direct hand in 18 & 19% of the Cats’ goals. What a shame he forgets the way from the change rooms to the ground at half time in finals. 😉

So for my small and medium forwards, Betts, Rioli, Martin, Petracca - the last 2 spending time in the midfield, and I will need to find one more somewhere along the line. Current youngsters like Pickett and Bolton I think will come right into calculations in the next 10 seasons or so, so I might just reserve a spot for one of them. 😁. Pickett already has a 49 goal+ goal assist season on his resume in his second year. Bolton had a lazy 43 in 20 games this season plus he belted the sh!t out of some bloke who was hassling Dan Rioli’s missus. 😍😍
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Great post and very enjoyable read. Thanks.

With our boy Petracca, he had an excellent home & away season, but really did elevate his game in the finals series. It would appear that some elite players go the other way. :D
 
Trav 20 said:
Great post and very enjoyable read. Thanks.

With our boy Petracca, he had an excellent home & away season, but really did elevate his game in the finals series. It would appear that some elite players go the other way. :D
Click to expand...

They certainly do Trav. They certainly do. But mentioning it around here is like setting a pigeon among the cats. 😂
 

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