Am I the only one who thinks the Dogs will get flogged?

[SilentHunter_]

J

jesus ya little princess, don't get in a huff because you're still an emotional little vagina from last week. No idea? Get back to me after Sydney lose today. Won't happen.
Saints weren't the better team in 10, Geelong players of the 90s were long retired. It's called variables you stupid cat Flog, each circumstance is different.

Haha kudos to you such a good response.

 

[Igloo]

And that is where I reckon they'll lose it.

The Bulldogs hack the ball out of contests and into their forward line. That's the reason they dominate clearances. Others, like Hawthorn, GWS & Sydney, focus more on quality rather than quantity. It's worked for the Bulldogs so far this finals series because their defense has played so well & they've been able to maintain pressure on the opposition in their F50.

We don't hack the ball out of contests. We handball it out to space. It's just our forward line has been incredibly inefficient at taking advantage of our usual clearance dominance.
Obviously there is the occasional quick kick out as there is with every team, but it's pretty obvious our preferred method is quick hands and try and get the opposition to commit to tackles so we can create some space then attempt to spot someone up.

 

[JeffDunne]

We don't hack the ball out of contests. We handball it out to space. It's just our forward line has been incredibly inefficient at taking advantage of our usual clearance dominance.
Obviously there is the occasional quick kick out as there is with every team, but it's pretty obvious our preferred method is quick hands and try and get the opposition to commit to tackles so we can create some space then attempt to spot someone up.

As I said earlier in the thread, flicking the ball around stoppages is your greatest strength. It's not only an effective way of clearing the ball but it frustrates your opposition.

But you do hack the ball forward. The forward line struggles because of it. The Bulldogs are one of the worst teams in the comp in hitting up forward targets for a reason.

 

[IronMike]

And that is where I reckon they'll lose it.

The Bulldogs hack the ball out of contests and into their forward line. That's the reason they dominate clearances. Others, like Hawthorn, GWS & Sydney, focus more on quality rather than quantity. It's worked for the Bulldogs so far this finals series because their defense has played so well & they've been able to maintain pressure on the opposition in their F50.

No offence but you're completely off the mark here mate. In fact it's the exact opposite. They rarely hack kick out of clearances and instead almost always use handball out of stoppages. They then use their elite handballing to take advantage of the extra numbers they have around stoppages and get the ball to outside runners with elite skills like Daniel, Hunter, Macrae or Johanissen who are then in the clear and can kick inside 50 under no pressure.

This finals series so far their elite handballing out of stoppages has become even more apparent as the games become even more contested than home and away games. They have also managed to lower their eyes more and hit up targets inside 50 better than most teams. The problem is as you say, Tom Boyd and Cordy haven't been able to take any marks inside 50 or become any sort of forward threat at all. So it's all been left to their smalls.

 

[fpm84]

I expect the Dogs to be really nervy early. Have a feeling it may take them 10+ minutes to kick their first. The key will be limiting the damage in this time. Sydney blew us and Adelaide away in the first quarter. If the Dogs can put up a better fight early and are within a goal or two at QT (or better yet, lead) I genuinely think the game will go the distance.

Would be nice to see Stringer break the game open but he's looked so off the pace in finals so far.

 

[JeffDunne]

Hacking the ball out of clearances doesn't mean you just throw it on your boot and kick it.

All (decent) teams try and get the ball to outside runners. Some are more structured than others in how they attempt to do it. Those teams rely on ruck dominance, the bulldogs don't.

 

[chesty]

beaten WCE in Perth easily and backed that up by beating the reigning 3 time champs. Knocked off GWS in Sydney and have beaten the Swans there as well the last two seasons.

Doggies won't get thumped. Won't get beaten by more than 4 goals and under 10 points is a likely scoreline should they get knocked off.

 

[JeffDunne]

It will be interesting to see if Sydney try to physically dominate the Bulldogs like GWS did.

If the Bulldogs start well I reckon Sydney will try it and that will help the Bulldogs.

 

[demondavey]

So many bitter flogs. Wah Wah dogs are getting attention

There are two teams in the GF, every single newspaper article, TV program, or radio segment has been about the WB. It's a national sport, and Sydney aren't just Sydney, they are the old South Melbourne.

It seems the only way Sydney will be relevant is if they win, and I hope they do.

 

[demondavey]

At the end of the day it's 1v7, Sydney will flog them.

 

[Cosmic Energy]

I can't see the Dogs getting flogged. For a start their inside mids are seriously good, which is why I was confident they would account for GWS, and they should be more than a match for Sydney's mids, who overwhelmed us. Of course as per the start of the GWS game, the worry is whether they get the reward for their efforts, but that doesn't mean they'll get blown away.

The game we beat them by 57 points was a bit of an anomaly - we kicked as straight as we have for a long time, and they missed everything.

 

[Shiel Be Right]

Western Bulldogs will win as they are a better team. They have most of the team playing as well as possible.

 

[puntking]

hope they win but thinking the same

 

[Maddo11]

At the end of the day it's 1v7, Sydney will flog them.

Except that the gap between 1 and 7 is only 2 games this year, very unlucky to be 2 games behind the minor premier and finish 7th haha

 

[TheAnt]

Interesting to see how taxing last week was on the Dogs, however just as interesting to see Sydney go in with underdone players.

 

[Swan4Life]

I cannot see the dogs getting flogged under any circumstances. They have been far too disciplined and are one of the few teams with a midfield to match ours. And Luke Beveridge is the cherry on the cake, you can see that he has all the tools to become a coaching great.

I expect a maximum 3 goal margin either way

 

[Coaster2012]

I'll be going for the Doggies, will make me feel better about them downing the Eagles in round 1, my heart says they can go all the way, but my rational mind says, "surely their run ends here."

 

[The Gong]

It will be interesting to see if Sydney try to physically dominate the Bulldogs like GWS did.

If the Bulldogs start well I reckon Sydney will try it and that will help the Bulldogs.

I think the idea in a GF is to physically dominate the opposition the whole game.

 

[1990crow]

Dogs have been brave and you have to respect what they have done... But Swans will be too good.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Honestly if there's any team that can do it, it's the Bulldogs. They play such an attacking brand of footy and it's not unlike GWS who totally dismantled Sydney a few weeks ago.

Weather is going to be a factor though. On a dry day, it's a 50/50 game but I think wet weather would better suit the Swans and give them a small advantage.

 

[SterlingArcher]

It will be interesting to see if Sydney try to physically dominate the Bulldogs like GWS did.

If the Bulldogs start well I reckon Sydney will try it and that will help the Bulldogs.

I can see Buddy running through someone like Wood if he gets in the hole. We haven't had a GF blow up in a while (04 the last one), if Buddy or Naismith can hurt someone today I think they will. Considering how the Dogs respond with their backs to the wall though I don't think it'd be the smartest idea.

 

[SterlingArcher]

You're looking at the wrong stats mate. Totals/averages are irrelevant. Differentials are the stat you're looking for, it measures whether you actually win contested ball each week, and by how much. There's a reason why coaches use differentials instead of totals.

Totals don't even take your opponents into account. For example, a team could be #1 in contested ball/clearance totals yet still lose contested ball/clearances every single week if they happen to play a high stoppage game style (like Sydney do).

Bulldogs are clearly #1 in the AFL in both contested ball and clearance differential. Whilst Sydney are 5th in clearances and 3rd in contested ball.

Contested possession:
#1 Bulldogs +16.2
#2 Geelong +14.0
#3 Sydney + 12.8
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2016&type=DA&sby=23&advv=Y

Clearances:
#1 Bulldogs +6.5
#2 GWS +4.3
#3 Melbourne +2.8
#4 Geelong +2.2
#5 Sydney +1.8
http://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings?year=2016&type=DA&sby=29&advv=Y

It's funny how everyone talks about Sydney's all star midfield, yet the Dogs fly under radar even when they have been statistically the best in the AFL this year by far, and bat far far deeper than the Swans midfield do as well. In a few years when the media finally catches onto how good the Dogs midfield is, we will be talking about them like we do Sydney.

Instead of the 'Big 5' of Sydney, it will be the 'Big 10' of the Dogs. Bontempelli, Dahlhaus, Liberatore, Daniel, Hunter, Macrae, Picken, Dunkley, Wallis and Clay Smith. Is arguably the deepest midfield we have ever seen in the AFL, and it's no wonder they have been so far ahead of the rest in contested ball and clearances all year. In fact mid year before their injuries hit they were at one point DOUBLE 2nd place in contested ball differential. It was the biggest contested ball differential in Champion Data history.

The Dogs midfield is for real. Fortunately for the rest of the competition their forward line is one of the worst in the league, so they don't capitalise anywhere near as much as they should from their midfield domination.

I'm just impressed Wallis is returning so soon...

In all seriousness, great post, certainly opened my eyes. I didn't realise just how good their stats were, even if I did recognise watching them they were good. Swans will need Rampe, Grundy, Smith to be so on today.

 

[JeffDunne]

I think the idea in a GF is to physically dominate the opposition the whole game.

Well yeah, but there's a difference between physically dominating in contests rather than off the ball.

GWS wasted a lot of energy on the latter with little effect.

 

[NewMelbournian]

A big Swans win is more likely than even a small Dogs win. On paper. But the game isn't played on paper. The Dogs might be overwhelmed by the emotion of the week. Or it might drive them to play out of their skin. Anything can happen. What if a key Swan gets injured early? So many variables are possible.

 

[Tyrone Time]

hoping more thinking.
want to have a punt by really not sure which way this one goes.
gut says Dogs will salute...but this is Sydney who will be pissed off for 2014 no doubt.
toss of the coin.