Analysis Why West Coast should go in as favourites

[kranky al]

Mcg will give collingwood a bit of a lift but nowhere near as much as richmond vs adelaide last year.

Richmond v adelaide had one thing that really set it apart - both teams were bog ordinary away from home. Noone beat convincing opposition away from their home grounds.

Ao is nothing like the g - the deck was completely stacked in richmonds favour.

We learn our lesson from 2015 - we have a training ground that is identical to the mcg, a home ground that is much closer to the g than subi - and the proof in the pudding - we finally beat collingwood there for the first time since bloody jesus was running round playing centre half back for bethlehem.

We have a lot more finals experience than the pies - including very tight games we have lasted the distance and come out on top.

The mcg was prob worth 6-8 goals last year - this year its maybe worth one or two.

a couple of early goals to shut the home crowd up and we can do it.

The danger is - early goals to collingwood - let them out to an early lead and we are in trouble.

Im just glad this year we have been graced with one decent opponent from two games at the mcg.



In 2015 we had one game against a bottom 8 team.

Both years we were predicted to do badly - which shows you cant parcel out mcg games based on where you think a club is going to finish - every club - including the etihad clubs - need two games a year there. Regardless of where you think they will finish.

They might not do well this year, or the next, but the year after might be the ticket - at least then most if the players have had 6 games there instead of 2-3

 

[Coaster2012]

Didn't they only win two games and one was a narrow win against Carlton??? Hardly proven time and again against quality system. The odds are about right given your game against them a few weeks ago. If the weather is even slightly wet or windy, i think Colllingwoods odds shorten substantially.

Where has this belief come from that WC's talls can't play at the slightest drop of water? If it's not a substantial down pour, It's going to have no effect on the game whats so ever. MCG drains pretty quickly if its morning showers.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

He should play ....

..........so did Dusty.

The question is how well.

 

[Coaster2012]

West coast should be clear favourites. Probably somewhere around the $1.30 mark. 2nd best team all year, have won 2 home finals, have had the perfect preparation. Wouldn't be too concerned by the fact they are missing their best ruckman and best midfielder. Also wouldn't be too concerned by the fact mcgovern couldn't walk yesterday, let alone train. I'm sure he'll be fine. I really just hope that a bunch of trundlers like sidebottom, treloar, pendlebury adams sier and phillips can be competitive with the midfield power of yeo, shuey, redden, sheed, masten and hutchings and make a contest of it. At least it's on the pies home ground, which might make them a bit more competitive

Mcgovern doesn't usually train Mondays. It's a corkey. 3-5 day turn around is average. And under rate our midfield all you want, everyone else has all year. But keep up the cocky attitude, It will serve you well on game day.

 

[bzparkes]

Where has this belief come from that WC's talls can't play at the slightest drop of water? If it's not a substantial down pour, It's going to have no effect on the game whats so ever. MCG drains pretty quickly if its morning showers.

Too right, Kennedy was our best crumbing player for a while there.

 

[Coaster2012]

Too right, Kennedy was our best crumbing player for a while there.

He's almost as a good a crumber as he at set shot. Darling not so much, but now we got Ryan Rioli so it doesn't matter.

 

[Total_Juddshanks]

I think-

It is true west coast know how to play against pressure football teams. The chip kick game starves the opposition of possession and a chance to build pressure, and the quality talls in defence frustrate rapid unstructured attacks.

On the other hand I think the MCG, on a wettish day, with a packed collingwood crowd , in a GF, is probably the ideal time to play pressure football. A lot of the younger players at west coast are going to be hugely amped up for their first grand final and it is very hard to remain calm in that situation and play chip kick footy.

The more I think about this the more I think the half time score will tell the story. If Collingwood can get the jump early with frenetic pressure they may totally blow the eagles away before they settle. If it is even at half time, West Coast's goal scoring power and ball movement will start to wear the pies down.

Should be a really good game of contrasting styles.

 

[Carringbush2010]

I agree with you mate and to be honest I find in mind boggling how strong a favourite the Pies are.
It seems the Vic media set the odds as they all pick the Pies yet for some reason I not only think we will win but we will win comfortably. I know all GF teams will say this but the Eagles have a look in their eyes that they will die for this.
I think we can half the midfield battle and get enough supply to cause the Pies no end of issues with our forward line, JK, Darling, Cripps, Lecras, Rioli and Ryan. It’s a lot to look after.
Our defence is also well equipped.

Obviously the location of the game sway the odds as I think at Optus the Eagles would be $1.30 favourites.

Anyway I hope it’s a great game and no excuses here for either team. Enjoy your week mate and good luck to the Pies, just not to much luck aye.

Yeah I don't think it's the media dictating the odds, think it's the betting agencies for some unknown reason. We know that rarely do form teams go into the GF and falter. Question is which team has the better form going in? My view it is wc by a follicle.

 

[Carringbush2010]

How good is Mason at marking a wet ball overhead?

If he marks that's a bonus but not his role, his role is to contest aerially. Collingwood rely on 2 systems in F50. One being that he brings the ball to ground for our small / mid size forwards. That's what he's there for. The other is too win the phone box footy and outspeed on transition which they do ad nauseum.

 

[Carringbush2010]

This is an obvious deflection thread "West Coast should be favourites so if the Pies lose it's not a choke!"

Relax Maggies, you should be favourites because you're likely going to win. If you bring what you did last week you'll win by 10 goals.

Sorry mate, I know you want to believe that but my op is based on the 2 games I saw on the weekend. WC broke down the highest contested possy team in the comp, granted the Pies were good but they are a pressure team and guess what wc do? They break down pressure through their own brand of pressure and then play their trademark keepings off.

I'm not saying that's a given this week, just sayin goin on what we all witnessed wc should be faves at the bookies.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Pies to win easily on the weekend and the bookies never lie.

Bookies never lie? Do you know what naive means?

 

[bzparkes]

Bookies never lie? Do you know what naive means?

Probably why he keeps losing lol.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Jordy as the only bone-fide star in that lineup

Mate apart from Pendles, Treloar, Sides, Grundy and this bloke our whole team is a list of "who?". Richmond the same, these teams are successful because they're teams first and foremost, other teams have far better lists. And that's probably a reflection of how good every afl listed player is, no names doing amazing things.

We're good because of they way we play and it is difficult to defeat, why are we a high scoring team? Because we share the scoreboard, in this day and age you can't just rely on De goey to kick a winning score. Will need multiple contributors just like Friday night.

 

[Scatter]

Really hard to judge, based on last few years home ground is worth a fair bit, but given WC already beat Collingwood there that negates it to some degree.
Convincingly beating Richmond at the MCG is more impressive than smashing a young Melbourne team at home IMO.
Really difficult to see who played worse, Richmond or Melbourne though.
You would think rain helps the Pies a bit, but Darling & Kennedy are still dangerous in the wet, whilst Cox will be relatively useless except trying to compete to ensure Barass/McGovern don't take many marks. De Goey would be very dangerous in the wet, and hard to match up on, but so are WC smalls.
Collingwood only lost by a couple of goals in the QF at Optus with Cox doing bugger all. You would have to think if that game was at MCG and Cox had a bit more confidence the Pies win.
And who knows how the Eagles who flopped in 2015 will go, will the desire/pressure to redeem be a blessing or a curse?
I really think it is 50/50, but if I had to put my house on would go Collingwood pretty much solely based on the MCG factor.

 

[Carringbush2010]

West Coast beat a travelling side with basically no finals experience, it doesnt come close to the significance of your win against us.

Sorry how much finals experience do we have? As much as our opponent? Think not.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Mate apart from Pendles, Treloar, Sides, Grundy and this bloke our whole team is a list of "who?". Richmond the same, these teams are successful because they're teams first and foremost, other teams have far better lists. And that's probably a reflection of how good every afl listed player is, no names doing amazing things.

We're good because of they way we play and it is difficult to defeat, why are we a high scoring team? Because we share the scoreboard, in this day and age you can't just rely on De goey to kick a winning score. Will need multiple contributors just like Friday night.

My main concern is that we won’t get enough from whe cox Stephenson and Thomas

 

[ItsGameTime]

What makes this thread so great are the opinions of the club supporters.

Collingwood fans in this thread generally don't believe that their team can/will win. Too many concerns. West Coast fans in this thread believe they will win. In the end they are on the same page though with believing West Coast will win.

Marvellous.

 

[james022]

Reckon you could argue it either way. Both teams go in off the back of a cracking performance in the prelim. I think it will come down to how well the pies forward line handles the eagles backs. If De Goey plays a blinder then pies will win.. can't wait

 

[Carringbush2010]

My main concern is that we won’t get enough from whe cox Stephenson and Thomas

Fair enough, Stevo and Hosky have been threatening and look likely to strike - haven't been terrible. Whether or not they can get reasonable supply will determine that factor.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

What makes this thread so great are the opinions of the club supporters.

Collingwood fans in this thread generally don't believe that their team can/will win. Too many concerns. West Coast fans in this thread believe they will win. In the end they are on the same page though with believing West Coast will win.

Marvellous.

Nobody said Collingwood can’t win.

We thought we could win last week too but that doesn’t mean Richmond weren’t favourites.

 

[Coaster2012]

What makes this thread so great are the opinions of the club supporters.

Collingwood fans in this thread generally don't believe that their team can/will win. Too many concerns. West Coast fans in this thread believe they will win. In the end they are on the same page though with believing West Coast will win.

Marvellous.

You kidding? I think both fan bases have fans that are animate they will win and some that are nervous. To say otherwise is just ignorant. Pies fans are sure they will win are basing that on the fact that its at the G and Eagles fans that are saying they will win are basing it on the fact we have beaten Pies at the G already.

No one has any clue. But we will find out in the first 5 minutes imo. Momentum footy has become so important in 2018. I can't remember a season where so many games are over within minutes.

 

[quotemokc]

McGovern and Barass are much better equipped to stop Cox than Rance and co

 

[PerthBoy86]

Mate apart from Pendles, Treloar, Sides, Grundy and this bloke our whole team is a list of "who?". Richmond the same, these teams are successful because they're teams first and foremost, other teams have far better lists. And that's probably a reflection of how good every afl listed player is, no names doing amazing things.

We're good because of they way we play and it is difficult to defeat, why are we a high scoring team? Because we share the scoreboard, in this day and age you can't just rely on De goey to kick a winning score. Will need multiple contributors just like Friday night.

In that regard maybe having JD and JK out during the year was a blessing in disguise, as it forced us to change our gameplan, and rely more on our small forwards and mids pushing up. I think as the year went on it showed we weren't quite AS reliant on the two bigs as we were in say round 11-13. Rioli, Ryan and Cripps really started coming to their own.

 

[dave123]

Datlimg Kennedy lecras ...that’s 1400 goals roughly

All can still play well ...Ryan and riloi are also X factor players and Jamie Cripps is just a dam good footballer and flys under the radar ......I like our forward line

 

[Coaster2012]

Datlimg Kennedy lecras ...that’s 1400 goals roughly

All can still play well ...Ryan and riloi are also X factor players and Jamie Cripps is just a dam good footballer and flys under the radar ......I like our forward line

How could you not? It's a perfect mix of tall and small with each bringing their own unique piece to the puzzle.