Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[Grrr]

I promise you with a standard injury run Richmond will remain bottom 6 next year.

Hawthorn and Fremantle have raided the drafts with elite picks in recent years. Richmond have not. Their improvement has come from top end prospects. Do you think the likes of Ralphsmith, Ross and Mansell can elevate Richmond much the same as Serong, Young, Day, Weddle etc have? No chance, mate. Geelong’s season is comparable to your season in 2022 - a little resurgence after a lean year, but it remains to be seen what the future holds for them. Even then, players like Holmes, Dempsey, Miers, Stengle and Henry headline a young core that is better than Richmond’s.

A good injury run is absolutely nowhere near the difference between 2 wins and 11-12 wins which is what you are implying

But besides Sicily who on the Hawks list was an A grader before this year. Richmond still have plenty of quality or even better with Bolton, Balta, Rioli, Nankervis, Vlastuin, Taranto, Lynch (with a bit of luck), Gibcus likewise.

You have no idea how good players like Brown, Campbell, Trezise, Smith, Green and a few others will be because none of us do yet, but there's a good chance that in another year some of those players will be best 22 every week, they are pretty much all first year players. Plus every side has players that come out of the blue like Lefau who did very well before injury.

Great draft hand will help as well, no.1 or 2 draft picks are pretty much an automatic inclusion of class as well. We could have a fist full of low picks if we have to trade players.

Maybe '25 might be another low year, but no reason to thing we will be down there for a long time.

 

[Obeanie1]

With both clubs finishing bottom 4 this year and at the beginning of their rebuilds, this is sure to be a hot topic in coming years.

Both topped up in recent years to try and stay up and pinch another flag, only to fall short in doing so and are now beginning to pay the price for selling all their draft capital.

West Coast sold the farm for Tim Kelly.
Richmond sold the farm for Taranto and Hopper.

Right now, you have to say West Coast have better youth because of Harley Reid, who is set to become a generational superstar.
However, this can easily change if Reid heads home to Victoria.

Who do you think is more likely to bounce back into premiership contention first?
Who do you think has the better youth prospects?
West Coast or Richmond?

Eagles at the beginning of their rebuild?

That started three drafts ago. 20 players under 21 is close to half the list.

The Tigers are just starting but brought in two quality mids in Hopper and Taranto that will steady the centre square set up for some time.

 

[Obeanie1]

With both clubs finishing bottom 4 this year and at the beginning of their rebuilds, this is sure to be a hot topic in coming years.

Both topped up in recent years to try and stay up and pinch another flag, only to fall short in doing so and are now beginning to pay the price for selling all their draft capital.

West Coast sold the farm for Tim Kelly.
Richmond sold the farm for Taranto and Hopper.

Right now, you have to say West Coast have better youth because of Harley Reid, who is set to become a generational superstar.
However, this can easily change if Reid heads home to Victoria.

Who do you think is more likely to bounce back into premiership contention first?
Who do you think has the better youth prospects?
West Coast or Richmond?

Eagles made the decision to bottom out and reload. They had to.

Tigers need to reload but based in Melbourne has access to a the largest and most active player exchange market. Meaning players who will change clubs but not leave Victoria.

Eagles historically rebuild via the draft.

Richmond uses trades and the draft.

Tigers had a looooong premiership drought before winning three.

Eagles seem to rebuild and contend every 10 years. This time will likely take longer.

 

[Philth]

he had coffee with Serong and Brayshaw, but that doesn't mean they liked him

his 'investment property' is in an area you are more likely to live in than have as a rental

Thankyou.

That is the most credible information I have been given on the Baker subject.

Now I'm worried, lol.

 

[Lsta062]

We haven't even started properly rebuilding yet though. This is our first bottom 4 year since 2010.

West Coast have been bottom 4 for 3 years now. They already have Harley Reid from it and are obviously ahead.

Don't think this is comparing apples with apples.

 

[mattwa]

Richmond will be miles ahead of West Coast. They could rebuild the list with this draft if they trade out Baker, Rioli and Bolton. Could net then 4 1st round picks ++. They could them move them into next year if needed or trade for players more aligned to the next flag tilt.

West Coast were stupid as they kept their ageing list and didn't cash in. They are now stuck with 1 good young talent surrounded by garbage.

 

[rado]

The truth is that premierships are damn hard to win and the path taken to build a list to contend is based on many factors.
The draft, trading, development, opportunity, injuries, culture, stability and a good dose of luck are all keys to success.
Who really knows when WC & Tigers are in a position to contend, however they're both clearly in a rebuild phase, WC started earlier.
One thing is certain ……. it takes time, patience and clever list management.

 

[Taper]

Ludicrous thread. both very strong clubs with strong history of building Premiership teams.

Richmond is not at the start of a rebuild unless they start trading out the many valuable 24-27yo players they have, Balta, Bolton, D Rioli, Baker, Graham, Taranto, Hopper, Miller etc. There is only one single reason Richmond are in line for such a high draft pick, and that is due to having an incredibly bad run of injuries to both key players and an unusually high volume of players. Richmond also has latent talent amongst its young cohort, but some of the best of these M Rioli, Gibcus, Clarke, Ross have missed most of the season injured, causing people like you to be fooled about where the list is. Richmond needs a couple of high end mids and/or forwards and they are likely to acquire one or more of these in the coming draft.

Eagles will know they need to build a team of the future, one look at their 23-28yo players tells you that. They need to find a couple of strong free agents or trades in this age bracket and then carry on drafting high end young players to build their future team.

Completely different scenarios.

I heard similar things being said by Hawthorn fans about 5-6 years ago.

 

[WillHayward]

2 years. the year before he was the best or next best forward in the game.

Big whoops.

NicNat was AA in 2021

Tom Hawkins was AA in 2022.

 

[Mr Meow]

Big whoops.

NicNat was AA in 2021

Tom Hawkins was AA in 2022.

CFL alert. Lynch was robbed.

 

[Grrr]

Big whoops.

NicNat was AA in 2021

Tom Hawkins was AA in 2022.

Finished 4 goals behind Currow, in the Coleman. Higher goal average than Curnow, Cameron & Hawkins, (all AA). Best contested mark average of all 3, Cameron & Hawkins x3.

Missed more games through injury. So not big fail at all, good argument to say he was the best of all three, but I did say best or there abouts.

 

[the big lebowski]

Both clubs miles off it given there best players are older types.

West coast has Reid

Richmond have nothing

Both would be best served pushing our older players that have currency and committing to draft rebuilds before Tassie come in.

The times is now

 

[Grrr]

Both clubs miles off it given there best players are older types.

West coast has Reid

Richmond have nothing

Both would be best served pushing our older players that have currency and committing to draft rebuilds before Tassie come in.

The times is now

I think you might find Richmond has a good draft already (pick 1 and 21), and a good chance to pick up at least another two first rounders if things go the way the press is saying.

 

[Altum Volantes]

We haven't even started properly rebuilding yet though. This is our first bottom 4 year since 2010.

West Coast have been bottom 4 for 3 years now. They already have Harley Reid from it and are obviously ahead.

Don't think this is comparing apples with apples.

It is like comparing Hawthorn and West Coast really - Hawthorn are 3 years further removed from a Premiership and even went through that ‘we no rebuild!’ era (error?) with Mitchell/Omera/Wingard/Patton/Scully etc.

They a couple of years ahead of West Coast, and the Eagles should be a couple ahead of Richmond.

 

[Altum Volantes]

I think you might find Richmond has a good draft already (pick 1 and 21), and a good chance to pick up at least another two first rounders if things go the way the press is saying.

Be wary of putting too much stock in that 21 - if it’s anything like last year you’ll take your second ‘natural’ pick in the 30s once the Academy, FS and compensation bullshit has torpedoed the first round.

 

[Daka]

Too early to tell, we will have a lot of talented youth next season, because of our draft hand.

Both will be down the bottom for a few years imo based off this season.

 

[Erakor]

Both teams are 5 years minimum from competing again. 3 more years of drafting before tassie, followed by a few years of trading and hardening the group.

 

[Grrr]

Be wary of putting too much stock in that 21 - if it’s anything like last year you’ll take your second ‘natural’ pick in the 30s once the Academy, FS and compensation bullshit has torpedoed the first round.

Yes but if the reports go as reported, Bolton, Rioli and Baker are on the move. Do not want to see the first two in particular leave, but if it comes to that there will be a couple more first round pics in there as well. Very even draft at the top end, but as you say, torpedoed.

 

[Farang83150]

Wonder if the spoon team this year will get the hardest draw in the fixtures next year.

 

[Lia]

You have no idea how good players like Brown, Campbell, Trezise, Smith, Green and a few others will be because none of us do yet, but there's a good chance that in another year some of those players will be best 22 every week, they are pretty much all first year players. Plus every side has players that come out of the blue like Lefau who did very well before injury.

You really need to accept reality, this is bottom 4 for an extended period talk.

There would have been some West Coast fans dribbling the same nonsense in 2022 about Xavier O'Neill, Connor West and suchlike. Most of those players will not be on your list in 5 years.

 

[Grrr]

You really need to accept reality, this is bottom 4 for an extended period talk.

There would have been some West Coast fans dribbling the same nonsense in 2022 about Xavier O'Neill, Connor West and suchlike. Most of those players will not be on your list in 5 years.

I fully accept that we could well be down the bottom for a good while. It hasn't helped that players like Lynch has missed two seasons of football. Richmond have been in front in 17 of their 20 matches this year at quarter time. So something is working, just can't keep it up.

Personel for sure is the problem, but with 9 players out for the season since about rd.14, and an injury list of about 16 on average for much of the season, it is hard to see who might be coming through. But some good talent has emerged this year.

Next season will be worse for sure, as key established players seem to be on the move. But we will then have a a good 6-7 under 30 picks at if that happens, so not all doom and gloom.

 

[Bestbird]

Not really comparable as at this stage. Richmonds rebuild will start from next year, a couple of years behind West Coast

Which shows looking at the teams on the weekend

Richmonds average age 26y 41 days with 4 players 21 or under. Banks, Brown, Cambell & Green. non early draft selections

West Coasts average age 25y 35d with 7 players 21 or under. Dewar, Ginbey, Hall, Hough, Johnston, Maric, Reid, Williams. Two top 10 draft selections.

I hope Richmond have a really good draft this year

 

[Morro]

Great another Tigers thread about rebuilds, drafts and our future.

 

[Obeanie1]

Only comment here is I have a distinct feeling this years 4 team MEGA trade will involve the Tigers, Eagles, Freo and the Suns.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

You really need to accept reality, this is bottom 4 for an extended period talk.

There would have been some West Coast fans dribbling the same nonsense in 2022 about Xavier O'Neill, Connor West and suchlike. Most of those players will not be on your list in 5 years.

The same applies to the bottom end talents at good clubs. When the top end turns over and there isn't anyone to replace it, those down the list get exposed.

When it comes to lists I'm a glass half full person. It doesn't take 30 new names to turn a list around. And when you're at the bottom of the ladder & replace the very worst players on your list you're often replacing them with the best 22 players.