Analysis The Rebuilds of West Coast and Richmond and their Future Prospects

[adammania9]

FB GibcusX Miller Broad

HB D Rioli Vlastuin Short

C PickettX TarantoX Ralphsmith

HF MartinX M RioliX GrahamX

FF LefauX LynchX BaltaX

R Nankervis HopperX PrestiaX

I/C Prestia Brown RossX Baker 23rd Mansell

That would be something like the best 23 if they were all fit and firing. Only Martin, Prestia, Lynch maybe Broad are on the final stretch of their careers. Those marked with x and bolded have missed strings of matches with injury, all bar Balta of those basically having most of the season wiped out.

Other notable players seasons wrecked by injury: Grimes, Clarke, Young, Naismith

McIntosh not selected in this team, 29yo double flag player.

If you think if that team largely takes the field fit all season and Richmond are still finishing bottom 4 it is you who is deluded. There are weaknesses within that team but no more than most best 23's carry. And there are some serious weapons there that can hurt any team. There are 12 players bolded in that team and say leave Balta out of that group the rest have more or less had their seasons wrecked by injuries. That is half your best 22 including the majority of the most important players.

Players not named in that team above have played about 150 games between them this year, so far. That is about 8 every week on average. But it is not like it is the best 8 playing most of those games due to fringe players being injured, those games are spread between 18 players.

Whether any or all of those injured players are in some sort of terminal decline is speculation. All clubs have a couple of older players dropping away most years. But plenty of players in the last half or third of their careers come back from serious injuries or niggling issues.

If that team I named had an injury run say like Geelong, Hawthorn, Fremantle or Swans this season, how many games do you see them winning?

That is a 6 win team

It's a really poor midfield lacking in speed and foot skills, and your wingers are no better. Players like Martin, Pickett, Prestia, McIntosh, Grimes are shells of their former selves and you're expecting performances of yesteryears which they are just not capable of anymore. Gibcus, Miller, Ralphsmith, Brown, Lefau, Mansell and M. Rioli is a seriously large group of players yet to play 50 games if that's your best 23. 32 year old Marlion Pickett is the only player in that entire team who has played between 50 and 100 games which is a seriously gaping hole in your list. Lefau and Brown are encouraging first year players, and Ralphsmith has improved, but none of the others have seriously proven they'll be reliable long term players.

I've noticed you left out Bolton, and even including him at the expense of Mansell and Ross to sub, it's an uninspiring team.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That is a 6 win team

It's a really poor midfield lacking in speed and foot skills, and your wingers are no better. Players like Martin, Pickett, Prestia, McIntosh, Grimes are shells of their former selves and you're expecting performances of yesteryears which they are just not capable of anymore. Gibcus, Miller, Ralphsmith, Brown, Lefau, Mansell and M. Rioli is a seriously large group of players yet to play 50 games if that's your best 23. 32 year old Marlion Pickett is the only player in that entire team who has played between 50 and 100 games which is a seriously gaping hole in your list. Lefau and Brown are encouraging first year players, and Ralphsmith has improved, but none of the others have seriously proven they'll be reliable long term players.

I've noticed you left out Bolton, and even including him at the expense of Mansell and Ross to sub, it's an uninspiring team.

Yes Bolton omitted in error. That team is not a 6 win team if it largely plays intact all season. The only way you can get to that conclusion is by thinking every experienced player who has been injured is a shell of their former selves, even if they were not injured.

Hawthorn Geelong Fremantle had "uninspiring teams" going into 2024. That Richmond team I named if you add Bolton to it, would cause pretty serious headaches for most teams. They wouldn't be the best team in the comp, but you don't have to be anywhere near that to be hanging around the top 6 with a great injury run.

I wouldn't mind betting against you.

 

[Footy Smarts]

FB GibcusX Miller Broad

HB D Rioli Vlastuin Short

C PickettX TarantoX Ralphsmith

HF MartinX M RioliX GrahamX

FF LefauX LynchX BaltaX

R Nankervis HopperX PrestiaX

I/C Prestia Brown RossX Baker 23rd Mansell

That team has 5 players who will be 32+ by early next season (Lynch, Martin, Prestia, Broad and Pickett) and another 2 who turn 31 next season (Nankervis and Vlastuin).

Could they hang snuck into finals this year if everything went right? Maybe. But it's a team on borrowed time in desperate need of a rebuild.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That team has 5 players who will be 32+ by early next season (Lynch, Martin, Prestia, Broad and Pickett) and another 2 who turn 31 next season (Nankervis and Vlastuin).

Could they hang snuck into finals this year if everything went right? Maybe. But it's a team on borrowed time in desperate need of a rebuild.

The last 2 Premiers had as many 32+yo's and more.

The thing is Richmond will know they need to find a couple of gun mids and a really good key forward for their team of the future. It is not outrageous to think they will get all of that from this coming draft as a silver lining to the low finish.

But nobody can fairly judge the current state of the list because half of the best team has not been on display most matches.

 

[Philth]

You guys have an edge in playing list for sure, but the gap isn't that large. Baker looks certain to leave.

I hear this a lot, and I'm yet to find any credible proof other than the fact that he bought an investment property in Perth.

Why do you think he is certain to leave? I think he'll stay.

 

[Grrr]

That team has 5 players who will be 32+ by early next season (Lynch, Martin, Prestia, Broad and Pickett) and another 2 who turn 31 next season (Nankervis and Vlastuin).

Could they hang snuck into finals this year if everything went right? Maybe. But it's a team on borrowed time in desperate need of a rebuild.

I think we need to turn over many of those players with some that have potential of have played well this year.
Those young players will get better (as a rule).

Some of those older players like Nankervis and Vlastuin are having really good years and will not drop of suddenly at 30/31. Broad had his best ever game at Richmond last week.

A mix of new faces and old, it may not be a Premiership side but plenty.

FB Gibcus Miller Broad

HB D Rioli Balta Vlastuin

C Mansell Taranto Ralphsmith

HF Brown Lefau Campbell

FF Bolton Lynch Baker

R Nankervis Ross, MacAuliffe

I/C No.1 draft pick, Hopper, Short, Trezise, Rioli Jnr, Banks

 

[rado]

I agree it's rotten luck and we don't truly know where the list is currently at. But we can gauge that a team that came 13th last year and added only Jacob Koschitzke through trade and has countless premiership players on a steady decline, with a first year coach leading the way is absolutely nowhere near finals.

Couldn’t agree more. The injuries don’t help, but the Tiges are a bottom 2 team at current and it’s only going to get worse for the next few years.
The way I see it, the 2 teams mentioned in this thread and your team Collingwood are all about to take the same path a few years apart.

West Coast are a year or two ahead of Richmond in the rebuild having access to Reid and co over that time, and have another 3 or so years left.

Richmond are just entering that dreadful period, having star players come to an end finding not much (or not enough) is left underneath. Rock bottom now, will stay there for a while. 3-4 years away from starting to climb.

Then we have the Pies. The decline is just beginning, and it’s only going to get worse. Hanging on this year like Richmond did from 2021-23. Old players everywhere, minimal young talent bar Naicos coming through. Another year or two to properly drop to the bottom 4, then 3-4 after that to regenerate.

It’s the circle of (AFL) life. What goes up, must come down.
You just have to win while you’re up, which all 3 have. Some (Richmondx3) more than others

 

[Footy Smarts]

A mix of new faces and old, it may not be a Premiership side but plenty.

FB Gibcus Miller Broad

HB D Rioli Balta Vlastuin

C Mansell Taranto Ralphsmith

HF Brown Lefau Campbell

FF Bolton Lynch Baker

R Nankervis Ross, MacAuliffe

I/C No.1 draft pick, Hopper, Short, Trezise, Rioli Jnr, Banks

You've just named a best 22 prior to any injuries that has Jack Ross and Kane McAuliffe as starting centre square midfielders. One is a fringe player who has never cracked the top 20 in your B&F while the other is playing VFL at the bottom team.

You reckon it "may not be a premiership side"? Let's be honest that side would be very lucky not to win the spoon.

 

[WillHayward]

I think we need to turn over many of those players with some that have potential of have played well this year.
Those young players will get better (as a rule).

Some of those older players like Nankervis and Vlastuin are having really good years and will not drop of suddenly at 30/31. Broad had his best ever game at Richmond last week.

A mix of new faces and old, it may not be a Premiership side but plenty.

FB Gibcus Miller Broad

HB D Rioli Balta Vlastuin

C Mansell Taranto Ralphsmith

HF Brown Lefau Campbell

FF Bolton Lynch Baker

R Nankervis Ross, MacAuliffe

I/C No.1 draft pick, Hopper, Short, Trezise, Rioli Jnr, Banks

Dude

Thats a bottom side right there

 

[Philth]

Dude

Thats a bottom side right there

Ummmmm

We are already a bottom side, and he's added in players like Lynch. You know, one of the best KPF in the game?

 

[WillHayward]

Ummmmm

We are already a bottom side, and he's added in players like Lynch. You know, one of the best KPF in the game?

Sounds like the Eagles fans two years ago


"Wait till we get NicNat back"

"Wait till we get Gov back"

"Wait till we get Yeo back"

Lynch has barely played in three years. You might as well tell me Kevin Bartlett is coming back.

 

[Grrr]

You've just named a best 22 prior to any injuries that has Jack Ross and Kane McAuliffe as starting centre square midfielders. One is a fringe player who has never cracked the top 20 in your B&F while the other is playing VFL at the bottom team.

You reckon it "may not be a premiership side"? Let's be honest that side would be very lucky not to win the spoon.

Yes a little wishful thinking. Ross was better than any other mid bar Taranto before being injured so he had some form on his side. Could have added Hopper or even Short over MacAuliffe but wishful thinking.

 

[Grrr]

Sounds like the Eagles fans two years ago


"Wait till we get NicNat back"

"Wait till we get Gov back"

"Wait till we get Yeo back"

Lynch has barely played in three years. You might as well tell me Kevin Bartlett is coming back.

2 years. the year before he was the best or next best forward in the game.

 

[WillHayward]

2 years. the year before he was the best or next best forward in the game.

Righto.

 

[Philth]

Sounds like the Eagles fans two years ago


"Wait till we get NicNat back"

"Wait till we get Gov back"

"Wait till we get Yeo back"

Lynch has barely played in three years. You might as well tell me Kevin Bartlett is coming back.

Moot point.

You were talking about the team he named.

 

[Bigger]

2 years. the year before he was the best or next best forward in the game.

That’s called the peak. After a peak comes a decline. You have just described a very inevitable decline but are looking back lovingly only at the peak.

You blokes are done and need to get a wriggle on before Tassie spoil the opportunity to rebuild properly.

It was a great run. Shame you didn’t deprive West Coast of 2018 but a great run.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Yes a little wishful thinking. Ross was better than any other mid bar Taranto before being injured so he had some form on his side.

He played 4 full games and Taranto, Bolton and Baker were all miles better than him across those games. Are you not including Bolton or Baker?

Hopper and Graham each only played 1 game and Prestia only played half a game.

Do you mean Ross was better than Dow? I guess we can at least agree on that.

 

[rado]

He played 4 full games and Taranto, Bolton and Baker were all miles better than him across those games. Are you not including Bolton or Baker?

Hopper and Graham each only played 1 game and Prestia only played half a game.

Do you mean Ross was better than Dow? I guess we can at least agree on that.

Most Richmond supporters know we are cellar dwellers for the next few years.

But don’t speak down to the few that are deluded like you’re sitting on top of the ladder with a youthful list. Your time is coming sooner than you think. Your rebuild is behind ours because we are there now, you’re nowhere near a flag and coming down before you go up. Tiges are closer to their next premiership than Geelong

 

[Snuffaluphagus]

I think Richmond are currently ahead overall because they have a few more youth roleplayer types already as well as a strong draft hand and tradeable players that will build it up even further. The asterisk is obviously Reid whom Richmond have no one near - but WC need to be able to keep him for that to matter.

Of course, that all can change very quickly depending on how both sides draft this year. Hard to see many other teams bar these two holding up the ladder for the forseeable future though

 

[Iceman!]

Thinking Richmond could be a top 6 team this year is genuinely one of the more one eyed takes i have ever seen on this site. The team that finished 13th last year, added Jacob koschitzke and are currently dead last with 2 wins is not injury luck away from top 6.

I think they are in a really rough spot list wise. With some luck could they bounce back to that 11th-14th range next year? Maybe. Do i see any way to turn this core group in to a premiership contender over the next 2-3 years? Absolutely not.

They are in rebuild mode and that is fine, they cashed in big time when they had the chance. They have some decent players but they haven't got many under 25 talents that have proven much at AFL level to get excited about.

 

[FreoGirl]

I hear this a lot, and I'm yet to find any credible proof other than the fact that he bought an investment property in Perth.

Why do you think he is certain to leave? I think he'll stay.

he had coffee with Serong and Brayshaw, but that doesn't mean they liked him

his 'investment property' is in an area you are more likely to live in than have as a rental

 

[Grrr]

Thinking Richmond could be a top 6 team this year is genuinely one of the more one eyed takes i have ever seen on this site. The team that finished 13th last year, added Jacob koschitzke and are currently dead last with 2 wins is not injury luck away from top 6.

I think they are in a really rough spot list wise. With some luck could they bounce back to that 11th-14th range next year? Maybe. Do i see any way to turn this core group in to a premiership contender over the next 2-3 years? Absolutely not.

They are in rebuild mode and that is fine, they cashed in big time when they had the chance. They have some decent players but they haven't got many under 25 talents that have proven much at AFL level to get excited about.

Agree with much of this. 2-3 years as flag contenders no, that takes time, a bit of luck re injuries and getting games into young players. So a rebuild is underway, Richmond has debuted more players than any other and used 41 players this year.

With a good draft hand we may unearth a couple of A graders. We still have some very good players in the 24-25 year bracket so they will be around in 3-4 when perhaps we may become contenders, but that can be said of every club. Bottom sides can rebound quickly, look at Collingwood, 17th in '21, 4th in '22 to flag in '23. Look at what the Hawks have done this year. Every realistic Richmond supporter now knows we are in rebuild.

I said at the start of the year in a similar thread, that if things go well with injuries this year we could have placed in the 8. Also said that the following year would be tougher due to players ages and drop off. It has come a year earlier, so be it.

At the start of the year everyone was saying Richmond had almost zero good young players. Our young players have been good overall this year, some natural improvement, some out of the blue. This happens to all clubs, but when you win premierships you hang on even longer through loyalty to those players. Not any longer.

 

[Grrr]

He played 4 full games and Taranto, Bolton and Baker were all miles better than him across those games. Are you not including Bolton or Baker?

Hopper and Graham each only played 1 game and Prestia only played half a game.

Do you mean Ross was better than Dow? I guess we can at least agree on that.

Taranto played one good game before injury, Hopper a couple of good/average games. Bolton was forward, as was Baker mostly. Ross was going well and uses the ball much better than either Taranto and Hopper, which wouldn't be hard.

First time he had played midfield for a good year or more and was just finding his feet when injured.

 

[adammania9]

Yes Bolton omitted in error. That team is not a 6 win team if it largely plays intact all season. The only way you can get to that conclusion is by thinking every experienced player who has been injured is a shell of their former selves, even if they were not injured.

Hawthorn Geelong Fremantle had "uninspiring teams" going into 2024. That Richmond team I named if you add Bolton to it, would cause pretty serious headaches for most teams. They wouldn't be the best team in the comp, but you don't have to be anywhere near that to be hanging around the top 6 with a great injury run.

I wouldn't mind betting against you.

I promise you with a standard injury run Richmond will remain bottom 6 next year.

Hawthorn and Fremantle have raided the drafts with elite picks in recent years. Richmond have not. Their improvement has come from top end prospects. Do you think the likes of Ralphsmith, Ross and Mansell can elevate Richmond much the same as Serong, Young, Day, Weddle etc have? No chance, mate. Geelong’s season is comparable to your season in 2022 - a little resurgence after a lean year, but it remains to be seen what the future holds for them. Even then, players like Holmes, Dempsey, Miers, Stengle and Henry headline a young core that is better than Richmond’s.

A good injury run is absolutely nowhere near the difference between 2 wins and 11-12 wins which is what you are implying

 

[Grrr]

That’s called the peak. After a peak comes a decline. You have just described a very inevitable decline but are looking back lovingly only at the peak.

You blokes are done and need to get a wriggle on before Tassie spoil the opportunity to rebuild properly.

It was a great run. Shame you didn’t deprive West Coast of 2018 but a great run.

Lynch has been good for a very long time, but he is only 31, the same age or younger than a good many key players who were not as good as him in his prime. So with a bit of luck with injury, no reason to think he still won't be a good player, and better than most, even though he won't be as good as he was at his peak. He's 6 months younger than Jeremy Cameron who is going alright still.