April - Daily Punt

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Pretty much all the favourites drew wide for the Doncaster. I'm pretty sure I've been on Dear Demi since her last win, and despite how that's worked out for me, I can't seem to shake her in this one either...

Like Teronado in the Australian Derby and sticking with GLB to upset Lankan Rupee at this point.
 
iluvparis said:
She is a moz to trifecta the Doncaster now :p

(not even sure how many runners she'll have)
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Hard to trifecta when you don't have a runner. Checking the acceptances only has one runner in the four Group 1 races Sweet Idea. As I posted earlier, lack of top end talent in the Waterhouse stable.

I'll ignore Rooster's comment about the sausage factory - You don't train over 100 Group 1 winners, without a modicum of ability and being able to get potential from horses. And one or two have posted that Cassidy is an over-rated jockey and yet he has over 100 Group 1 winners.
 

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about a month ago I backed LR for the TJ smith and all I've been saying to the weather gods since is just give me d4 or better track. don't care if he starts from the car park just a dry track and he wins. well FU god of weather. where is the god of **** and wine?

BMW: Criterion
TJ SMITH: GLB
DONCASTER: One of Sacred Falls, Hawkspur or El Roca
 
yaco55 said:
Hard to trifecta when you don't have a runner. Checking the acceptances only has one runner in the four Group 1 races Sweet Idea. As I posted earlier, lack of top end talent in the Waterhouse stable.

I'll ignore Rooster's comment about the sausage factory - You don't train over 100 Group 1 winners, without a modicum of ability and being able to get potential from horses. And one or two have posted that Cassidy is an over-rated jockey and yet he has over 100 Group 1 winners.
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Sheesh - good call - that is an extremely barren line up for her on Sydney's biggest day. Certainly is in a slump.

And re: Cassidy - I don't think people post that he is overrated - they just post to say he is a criminal (a statement I'd agree with). re: Gai - she'd have to have the worst record in the country's 3 biggest races by an absolute panel amongst those who have trained 100+ Gr 1 winners wouldn't she?
 
iluvparis said:
Sheesh - good call - that is an extremely barren line up for her on Sydney's biggest day. Certainly is in a slump.

And re: Cassidy - I don't think people post that he is overrated - they just post to say he is a criminal (a statement I'd agree with). re: Gai - she'd have to have the worst record in the country's 3 biggest races by an absolute panel amongst those who have trained 100+ Gr 1 winners wouldn't she?
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What are the three Biggest races ? - Then I will research the biggest numbers.

Actually my biggest interest in 2014/2015 is how many two year old winners Chris Waller trains. Trainers are often pigeon holed early in their career - I remember when Freedman and Waterhouse started having early success with staying types - The cry went out that they couldn't train two year olds - Once they focused on two year olds they cleaned up. I expect Waller to be similar.
 
Track a Slow 7 at Randwick with no rain yesterday, showers forecast for today and tomorrow but who knows what that means for Sydney, the forecast is good for Saturday so with a bit of luck we could get to the Dead range.

On a dead surface I'm very keen on both Lankan Rupee and Messene but if the track is in the slow they come back to the pack a touch, in the meantime I hope they continue to drift.
 
Lankan Rupee is the best bet of the card if the track holds.

Messene - His barrier is a concern.
 
I personally have no concerns over the barrier, he has no weight and along with El Roca/Dissident who are the horses who will be pressing forward in the run? His greatest asset is the ability to continue running off positive sections off strong tempos, he does what not many horses are capable of.

I think Weary, El Roca and Sacred Falls are his dangers but if the track is in the dead range I think he will be too good for them.
 

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Main Man said:
I personally have no concerns over the barrier, he has no weight and along with El Roca/Dissident who are the horses who will be pressing forward in the run? His greatest asset is the ability to continue running off positive sections off strong tempos, he does what not many horses are capable of.

I think Weary, El Roca and Sacred Falls are his dangers but if the track is in the dead range I think he will be too good for them.
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Was listening to either Hawkes (can't remember which one) and they rated Messene a star. I like Sacred Falls if the track gets too wet. Good barrier & gets through the ground.

What do you think of Hawkspur?
 
I think Messene could end up the best 1400M - 2000M horse we have, this just another stepping stone before progressing to WFA, Cox Plate in the Spring would be my aim.

In regards to Hawkspur I was all over him in the Spring but not convinced he is going as well this time in, awful first up and improved the next two in what reads to be good form on paper, but for mine the WFA races/form has been fairly moderate this Autumn, for example El Roca and Hawkspur both raced on the 8th at W-Farm and on my ratings El Roca's performance was conservatively 5 lengths superior to Hawkspurs, they meet on a similar weight scale here.

I can see why he might have his admirers but I'm risking the form lines he has come through.
 
Saturday

Mville Race 6 #1 Mays Dream
Mville Race 7 #9 Platelet
Mville Race 8 #1 Kushadasi

3 Way Multi @ $27

Caulfield Race 8 #16 Taiyoo @ $4
Caulfield Race 7 #4 Siwa Lady @ $13
Caulfield Race 4 #9 Tikitour @ $11
Caulfield Race 3 #17 Rugged Cross @ $5.50

Randwick Race 1 #1 Klammer @ $9
Doncaster #22 Slow Pace @ $19
 
Very keen on The Offer also, seen a few tipping Sertorious who has been one of mine in the past but people get too caught up on horses running 4th's or 5th in races that are perceived to be of a much higher quality when in reality they are not.

The Offer was great 2md up, a big run last start and is 4th up here to 2600M on a surface he loves, clearly the one for me with the only slight concern being a rise in weights.
 
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rosehill Win/Place

R2: Darci Magic 15/4.20

R3: Everage 26/6.50 , Northern Glory 6.5/2.3

R4: Sertorious , The Offer and Opinion quinella and exacta

R5: Time for war 8/2,50

R6: Teronado 10/3.5

R7: Lankan Rupee , Gordon Lord Byron and Sweet idea quin and exacta

R8: Streama 34/8 and Weary 5.50/2

R9: Arabian Gold 7.5/2,6

odds from sportsbet
 
Main Man said:
Very keen on The Offer also, seen a few tipping Sertorious who has been one of mine in the past but people get too caught up on horses running 4th's or 5th in races that are perceived to be of a much higher quality when in reality they are not.

The Offer was great 2md up, a big run last start and is 4th up here to 2600M on a surface he loves, clearly the one for me with the only slight concern being a rise in weights.
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Maybe you should hold your money for the Sydney Cup. The Offer gets in much better at the weights.
 
yaco55 said:
Maybe you should hold your money for the Sydney Cup. The Offer gets in much better at the weights.
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Already on an happy to be, the rise in weight is a very minor concern, he has raced well with 59kgs in his previous campaigns.

He is my best of the day on Saturday closely followed by Criterion.

I will be backing all individually but do have those two in an all up with Lankan Rupee for an 8k result.
 

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April - Daily Punt

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