- Mar 17, 2015
- 1,452
- 2,571
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
It might throw Ollie into the grandstand this time
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Racing April Daily Thread - Racing > Rugbaleeg
- Thread starter juice t
- Start date
-
- Tags
- championswamps racing
- Tagged users None
- Status
It might throw Ollie into the grandstand this time
- Dec 2, 2017
- 29,312
- 17,883
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
MJ's only win as a mare was a PB Lawrence beating Cliff's Edge and a 100yo Hartnell
Shark over Melody Belle every day of the week.Avoiding like the plague
In my multiples but that’s it
Danon Premium clearly on top >>>>Adeyyeb>>>Melody Belle >>>
- Dec 2, 2017
- 29,312
- 17,883
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Will be on the Jap horse but MOW looks a solid place bet at around 2.5
Melody Belle with 10 X group 1 Wins says differently
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Im sick of hearing about Melody's NZ g1 wins.
She beat DanzDanzDance by a length in the NZ stakes... that is not good form.
If you actually look at what she's done in Australia, she's overrated.
- Jan 30, 2013
- 16,166
- 16,559
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
TAS Australian form involves getting rolled by Dreamforce twice and getting flogged by Castelvecchio.
If you actually look at what he's done in Australia, he's overrated.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Seriously though - MOW being a shorter price than MB at WFA is almost as dumb a price as Shared Ambition jumped last week
You do realise the Shark needs distance yeah?
Its 1600m+ record in Australia is very good
Chipping Norton Winner
3rd in the cox plate
Beaten a nose in the Epsom.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
- couldn't run done Kolding in the Epsom - that form looks terrible now
- flogged by Castelvecchio over 2000
- couldn't run past the BOSTONIAN over 1500
#overrated
- Jan 30, 2013
- 16,166
- 16,559
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Danon Premium back out to 4's.
Beteasy very keen to lay him it seems. TAB also keen rolled him out 3 times already today.
Beteasy very keen to lay him it seems. TAB also keen rolled him out 3 times already today.
- Jan 30, 2013
- 16,166
- 16,559
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
For me, Melody Belle looked to run a PB in Australia last weekend. She's a small winning chance but not $11.00.
When I tried to slot in Danon Premium, I was surprised to see the lack of appreciation the JRA gave Danon Premium, 119 is a low rating. The comparisons despite the defeat look a stretch to Lys Gracieux, her OHR spiked in her last 3 starts including the Cox plate and the massive win on retiring. JRA think he's part way between To the World and Kluger, neither of whom were good enough. A whopping 11lb inferior after mares allowance to the CP winner.
Te Akau Shark will drift on back of hoof filler. He's probably the best horse here if he can elevate to what looks like he can, if he doesn't he won't be good enough which is of some concern with the bruised heel.
Got not much of a read on MOW, see how he goes stepping up, wouldn't surprise either way.
VE back to 2000m is of concern but she's the real deal. Maybe slightly concerned about being just slightly shy of these at the 2400 back to 2000m.
Addeybb is genuinely firm prospect at the 4.80.
When I tried to slot in Danon Premium, I was surprised to see the lack of appreciation the JRA gave Danon Premium, 119 is a low rating. The comparisons despite the defeat look a stretch to Lys Gracieux, her OHR spiked in her last 3 starts including the Cox plate and the massive win on retiring. JRA think he's part way between To the World and Kluger, neither of whom were good enough. A whopping 11lb inferior after mares allowance to the CP winner.
Te Akau Shark will drift on back of hoof filler. He's probably the best horse here if he can elevate to what looks like he can, if he doesn't he won't be good enough which is of some concern with the bruised heel.
Got not much of a read on MOW, see how he goes stepping up, wouldn't surprise either way.
VE back to 2000m is of concern but she's the real deal. Maybe slightly concerned about being just slightly shy of these at the 2400 back to 2000m.
Addeybb is genuinely firm prospect at the 4.80.
Your acting like Kolding hadn't won 7/8 and wasn't carrying 50.5kg in the Epsom. Was a good 4yo.
3rd in the cox plate is supposed to be bad form now? 2 lengths behind Castelvecchio when it was carring 9.5 extra KGs.
Read the first line of what I said last post. Needs distance. I'm a big fan of the shark but I laid it last start due to thinking the 1500 wouldn't suit (and it didin't).
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
So 3rd in the Cox Plate is ok but 3rd in the ASM and 4th 4WNC as top weight in a Doncaster is bad form?
Face it mate - if you apply the same criteria to TAS in Australia as you do MB they both come up short. This is classic cherry picking analysis.
I actually like both horses - just trying to provide some unbiased logic.
Also I don't think the shark needs distance - he is a dead set miler for mine. that + hoof filler and I am leaving him out of everything on Saturday. But would have been on him had he lined up in the Doncaster last week
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Surely the top 2 in the market just run the quinella anyway. Will be a good race nonetheless...as long as I don't have to hear Richo!
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Seems by far the most likely outcome
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
I mean I'd love to look for value but with queries over the rest at the top end, I'd rather take the quin/exacta and possibly take the Field for 3rd in a tri. Given up trying to pick who comes 3rd.
Not bad form, but not the equivalent of Cox Plate form.
I just plain disagree with the comparisons between MB and TAS.
The Sharks had 5 runs in Australia, and as the distance goes up the results get better. 2 shortest trips it's been done by Dreamforce, probably indicative that it needs a bit more ground to chew up. Twice run over the mile for a good 2nd in the Epsom and a win over Very Ellegaant in the Chipping Norton. Pretty solid form. Then one start over the 2000 for a 3rd in the cox plate where it's come from last @ the 600m while carrying 9.5 KGs more than Castelvecchio.
Don't know how you can categorically call it a dead set miler.
The Belle's had 5 runs in Australia. Every time it's gone up against decent opposition it's failed. Not saying its a bad horse, just not a champion like it's 10 G1 wins would suggest.
iluvparis
Import Whisperer
- Apr 1, 2005
- 50,055
- 40,654
- AFL Club
- Carlton
- Other Teams
- Calgary Flames, Man Utd
Yeah I think KWD came out as my best value longie comparing current prices to the market I priced earlier.
LukeParkerno1
Post-Human
Think we've all had a pre bet on Danon anyway, so if need be you can back the other one to save your bank and still come out on top. It's literally 2 in the squaddie for me, and the ONLY reason it's 2 is the wet ground although it's hardly rained this week.
- Status
Similar threads
- Sticky
