Racing April Daily Thread - Racing > Rugbaleeg

[iluvparis]

Pretty solid form. Then one start over the 2000 for a 3rd in the cox plate where it's come from last @ the 600m while carrying 9.5 KGs more than Castelvecchio.

Don't know how you can categorically call it a dead set miler.

This is a negative - it did absolute ZERO in the run and just loafed around out the back while Magic Wand got cut to bits by BHB up front. Running on for third would have been the bare minimum a decent horse would do given how the race was run. It couldn't even get near CV which is looking bog average form right now. If it needs distance so badly why has it only had 1 run at 2000m - I guess you know better than the trainer?

TAS has failed against very moderate opposition in Australia just the same as MB has - their records are eerily similar for people not looking through rose colored glasses (1 win in their last 5 each or something).

 

[4THAWN]

This is a negative - it did absolute ZERO in the run and just loafed around out the back while Magic Wand got cut to bits by BHB up front. Running on for third would have been the bare minimum a decent horse would do given how the race was run. It couldn't even get near CV which is looking bog average form right now. If it needs distance so badly why has it only had 1 run at 2000m - I guess you know better than the trainer?

TAS has failed against very moderate opposition in Australia just the same as MB has - their records are eerily similar for people not looking through rose colored glasses (1 win in their last 5 each or something).

So castelvecchio fails once over 2400 and now you're scrapping the cox plate form? Last time I checked it won it's last start over 2000m.

TAS has failed against moderate opposition..... when racing in unsuitable races.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

So castelvecchio fails once over 2400 and now you're scrapping the cox plate form? Last time I checked it won it's last start over 2000m.

TAS has failed against moderate opposition..... when racing in unsuitable races.

What's the difference? Will be batting from 3rd to last anyway. Whether MB beats TAS this week...who cares? Aren't we looking for the winner and not the horse that comes 3rd?

 

[FallingLiefs]

What's the difference? Will be batting from 3rd to last anyway. Whether MB beats TAS this week...who cares? Aren't we looking for the winner and not the horse that comes 3rd?

Hah, thanks mini Paris, you will be surprised to hear Timeform have 8lb between the 2 Te Akau horses and Te Akau Shark the 2nd best horse in the race behind Verry Elleegant. This will be a tough race, It's an absolute ripper, as good as we could have hoped for.

The two faves look deserved top 2 but far from the race being over.

 

[iluvparis]

So castelvecchio fails once over 2400 and now you're scrapping the cox plate form? Last time I checked it won it's last start over 2000m.

TAS has failed against moderate opposition..... when racing in unsuitable races.

Ahh so this is the age old chestnut of when the horse I like loses the race is unsuitable but when the horse I don't like loses its crap

#noexcuses101

 

[iluvparis]

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Hah, thanks mini Paris, you will be surprised to hear Timeform have 8lb between the 2 Te Akau horses and Te Akau Shark the 2nd best horse in the race behind Verry Elleegant. This will be a tough race, It's an absolute ripper, as good as we could have hoped for.

The two faves look deserved top 2 but far from the race being over.

I just can't see it, unless it's an absolute utter bog track and I can't see us getting the rain they predicted.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

You almost deserve it for putting a quaddie on greyhounds!

Goodness...you might as well bet on the Russian table tennis!

 

[mcnulty]

Gee that Sydney Cup is rancid. The fave looks the obvious but I’m taking the $3.50 Gallic Chieftain the place.

Addeyab was good last start but it was a shocking leaders track and it SHOULD be drier this week. Looks like I’m on the DP train.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Addeyab was good last start but it was a shocking leaders track and it SHOULD be drier this week. Looks like I’m on the DP train.

That is 100% the way I'm seeing it too. Rather just take the 4's for Danon than trying to get it beaten. The second fav is bankable too especially if the track is a Heavy 8+

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Can get $4.20 for DP
Load some more

Can see this being a BF punting board fill up

 

[LukeParkerno1]

Can get $4.20 for DP
Load some more

Can see this being a BF punting board fill up

Please drift to $5+

Will be the biggest laughable drift

 

[iluvparis]

Please drift to $5+

Will be the biggest laughable drift

No chance - even if it was dead and they were dragging it around the mounting yard on the ground it wouldn't get past $4.50

 

[LukeParkerno1]

No chance - even if it was dead and they were dragging it around the mounting yard on the ground it wouldn't get past $4.50

Was worth try at least lol

 

[Gavin Excell]

Im on DP but in Addeyybbs favour is that it's clearly settled in well in Australia which is half the battle with imports

 

[iluvparis]

Im on DP but in Addeyybbs favour is that it's clearly settled in well in Australia which is half the battle with imports

Who was the last not to settle here - generally they all run enormous first up (as long as they haven't gone to local trainers).

International trainers know how to travel horses - you are not getting juice in the price for that risk.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Beteasy in their 114.4% market have DP $4.00 which equates to a projected internal price of around $4.57. If they're laying it I'd suggest they have it longer.

Top price all bookies have it around that $4.40 mark.


$4.50 seems unlikely given weight of money will be for it, but still possible if the exchange's opinion matches the Beteasy traders (who are good at their job)

 

[Gavin Excell]

Who was the last not to settle here - generally they all run enormous first up (as long as they haven't gone to local trainers).

International trainers know how to travel horses - you are not getting juice in the price for that risk.

Latrobe?

 

[4THAWN]

What's the difference? Will be batting from 3rd to last anyway. Whether MB beats TAS this week...who cares? Aren't we looking for the winner and not the horse that comes 3rd?

The whole discussion was about who's superior MB or TAS.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Beteasy in their 114.4% market have DP $4.00 which equates to a projected internal price of around $4.57. If they're laying it I'd suggest they have it longer.

Top price all bookies have it around that $4.40 mark.


$4.50 seems unlikely given weight of money will be for it, but still possible if the exchange's opinion matches the Beteasy traders (who are good at their job)

Projected internal price?

 

[4THAWN]

Ahh so this is the age old chestnut of when the horse I like loses the race is unsuitable but when the horse I don't like loses its crap

#noexcuses101

not even worth trying to convey a point to you

 

[iluvparis]

Latrobe?

Wut? Only tooked a milkshaked to the hilt Trap For Fools to stop him winning a Mackinnon over a completely unsuitable distance.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Wut? Only tooked a milkshaked to the hilt Trap For Fools to stop him winning a Mackinnon over a completely unsuitable distance.

Incorrect

Trap for fools was jiggered not milkshaked

 

[rideclutch]

Addeybb is genuinely firm prospect at the 4.80.

I don't know what this means, are you joining my Addeybb bandwagon? You have to blindly declare it though and then act like a arseh*le if it wins.

Most are on DP so there's still room if anyone else is interested.

 

[iluvparis]

not even worth trying to convey a point to you

Not surprised you are failing to grasp the logic