Analysis Are we really contenders for the flag?

[ep2018]

We would have to **** up more than two games at home for us to miss the eight, and that is assuming we don't win another away game this year. This week vs GWS, Freo away derby and Crows at home in the last round are the three we could possibly drop in the run home. I may have lost my shit in the gameday thread last week saying we may not make finals but I reckon we're safe looking at our run home.

 

[RookiePick]

Time to Hunt.

What has happened since 2015?

We played with intensity hardness and went all in (bar the grand final)

Its really hard to watch us now. We have the talent to win a flag. We just lack steele. We had it in spades in 2004-2007.

Hurn is a horrible player and captain.
Priddis Mark II IMO.

Was considered too aggressive and was replaced by "Time to knit" signage.

Definitely lost a physical intensity we brought to most matches in 2015

 

[CM9000]

We would have to **** up more than two games at home for us to miss the eight, and that is assuming we don't win another away game this year. This week vs GWS, Freo away derby and Crows at home in the last round are the three we could possibly drop in the run home. I may have lost my shit in the gameday thread last week saying we may not make finals but I reckon we're safe looking at our run home.

HoneyBadger35

 

[ep2018]

HoneyBadger35

Well I put them there as derby's can be 50/50 games and who knows really.

 

[MWPP]

Have the pessimistic people who keep claiming that we're going to miss the finals actually checked out our draw?
We have 8 games at Domain/ 5 away games left.

Even if you think that we'll fall away badly and lose 4/5 of those away games (ie only beat the Suns) and 3/8 games at domain (ie lose to 3 of GWS, Adelaide, Geelong and Fremantle), we'll still end up with 12 wins (which will be enough to scrape into the finals this year).

But going through our draw, I honestly think we'll get 15-17 wins

 

[CM9000]

Well I put them there as derby's can be 50/50 games and who knows really.

Do you remember what happened last derby?

 

[MWPP]

I'm actually *more* optimistic about our chances than I was at the start of the season (or at the end of last season), because:

-We are where I thought we would be (in terms of win-loss record) despite not having Nic Nat, but other teams have performed worse than I expected
-Hawthorn/Sydney have slipped. Yeah they might make the finals, but they're unlikely to finish higher than us, which means the odds of having to play them at the MCG/SCG are slim
-GWS/Adelaide/Port have emerged as the teams most likely to finish ahead of us after the home and away season (moreso than Geelong, the Bulldogs and Richmond) . Thankfully we have very good records at their home grounds (I even consider Adelaide Oval a home away from home. Pity we don't play Adelaide over there this year....) , so our record in Melbourne will be pretty irrelevant, unless we make the GF, in which case, odds are we'll be playing an interstate team anyway.
-As last year showed, the introduction of the pre-finals bye has made the top 2/4 advantage less relevant (in fact, winning a QF in week one and having 2x byes in 3 weeks could also be seen as a disadvantage), so I'm not as bothered about the prospect of missing top 2/4 (if we make it, on the other hand, then that's great too)

 

[numbat06]

Come finals our midfield will wilt..so no not contenders. We have to go hard at elite midfield talent and hopefully have a crack next year.

 

[random260]

Need top 2 finish to be a chance. Even then it is pretty thin. Especially gf is at melb

 

[dajesmac]

Do you remember what happened last derby?

We can't be so arrogant as to think Fremantle can't beat us. I think we're a shade better and would be confident in playing them again but the gap isn't that big. EP also has a point in saying that derbies don't always reflect form.

 

[MWPP]

Need top 2 finish to be a chance. Even then it is pretty thin. Especially gf is at melb

No, top 2 is overrated . It's not as if we can't win at Adelaide Oval or Spotless . Besides , look what happened to the QF winners last year . If anything the top 2/4/6 advantage is now pretty thin (thanks to the pre-finals bye ). Our record in Melbourne is going to be quite irrelevant this year

 

[Biggie]

No, top 2 is overrated

That top 2 finish is a fairly good reason why we got to a GF in 2015 (Concede that yes, that was before pre finals bye)

Our record in Melbourne is going to be quite irrelevant this year

Not sure you can be that dismissive.

Lets see how we far against WB, Collingwood & St's in Melbourne.

Right now, you'd be hard pressed to tip the lads in any of those games. Keeping in mind I've said right now.

Interesting few weeks coming up.

 

[eagles rule]

I want to puff the chest out and say yeah we can win the flag this year ..

 

[MWPP]

That top 2 finish is a fairly good reason why we got to a GF in 2015 (Concede that yes, that was before pre finals bye)

Yes the pre-finals bye makes a big difference
Also we had poor records at the home grounds of 2 of the other top 4 teams (Sydney/Hawthorn ) and were still addressing our iffy record against Fremantle , so avoiding games at those grounds was even more important (in Fremantle's case , I would've loved to play a derby final against them if we were the lower ranked team , but would've hated giving up our home ground advantage if we were the higher ranked team ).
This is not the case this year (since the other top 4 contenders in GWS/Adelaide/Port are teams we play well against , regardless of venue )

Not sure you can be that dismissive.

Lets see how we far against WB, Collingwood & St's in Melbourne.

Even if you're pessimistic enough to think that we'll lose all of those games (I think we'll at least beat Collingwood because it's at Etihad not the MCG , and maybe St. Kilda ) , that still doesn't put top 2/4/6 out of reach .

Right now, you'd be hard pressed to tip the lads in any of those games. Keeping in mind I've said right now.

Are we even likely to be playing those teams in Melbourne during the finals though ?
It's possible that we might play the bulldogs away (in which case , I'd back our team to ambush them, like they did to us last year ), but we're far more likely to play the dogs in Perth (in which case , I'll back us in for obvious reasons) and/or Adelaide/GWS/Port away

Interesting few weeks coming up.

Indeed

 

[MWPP]

I want to puff the chest out and say yeah we can win the flag this year ..

Of course we can win the flag this year .
Saying so doesn't involve any chest-puffing (though it would if the "can" was replaced with "will" )

 

[eagles rule]

It's "Can " bacause of of off days like Sunday v Essendon..

Previously it was "Will" and was quietly confident of going all the way ..

 

[MWPP]

It's "Can " bacause of of off days like Sunday v Essendon..

Previously it was "Will" and was quietly confident of going all the way ..

Thankfully every other team has had off day/s too
(Except perhaps Port , who I really think are the epitome of flat-track bully/are peaking too soon)

 

[eagles rule]

Give the team a good backhander then give them the feel good pats on the back ..

 

[eaglesnutcase]

Have the pessimistic people who keep claiming that we're going to miss the finals actually checked out our draw?
We have 8 games at Domain/ 5 away games left.

Even if you think that we'll fall away badly and lose 4/5 of those away games (ie only beat the Suns) and 3/8 games at domain (ie lose to 3 of GWS, Adelaide, Geelong and Fremantle), we'll still end up with 12 wins (which will be enough to scrape into the finals this year).

But going through our draw, I honestly think we'll get 15-17 wins

I think it depends on how the players respond.We may find a backbone and start winning away or we may start thinking its too hard and start dropping games at home.E.G. if we lost this week the coach may decide its time for a rebuild in which case we will have some short term pain.

 

[MWPP]

I think it depends on how the players respond.We may find a backbone and start winning away or we may start thinking its too hard and start dropping games at home.E.G. if we lost this week the coach may decide its time for a rebuild in which case we will have some short term pain.

Over the last 2 years, we haven't lost many games at home, and the times we have, we have found a way to make up for it Eg losing to Adelaide at home last year, but going on to beat them away
I'm quietly confident that we'll win this weekend, but losing to GWS wouldn't be a reason to rebuild (nor would it mean having to write-off the return match)
Thankfully our club doesn't kneejerk the way that some of our supporters do.

 

[CM9000]

We can't be so arrogant as to think Fremantle can't beat us. I think we're a shade better and would be confident in playing them again but the gap isn't that big. EP also has a point in saying that derbies don't always reflect form.

Fair enough, but do you really think the difference between us and Fremantle is only a shade? Remember that they were in the bottom 6 only 2 rounds ago.

 

[dajesmac]

Fair enough, but do you really think the difference between us and Fremantle is only a shade? Remember that they were in the bottom 6 only 2 rounds ago.

Ladder position doesn't mean a whole lot after seven rounds. They're 5th now - still doesn't mean alot, particularly this season where everyone has been inconsistent to an extent.

Yeah, I think we're only a bit better. They've probably improved every game this season whereas we've stagnated. Both sides will probably be elimination finalists.

 

[Mico89]

The league is close these days and last years premiership winners proved that you don't need to finish top 4 to win it. So the entire top 8 are contenders, we did have a bad game against Boomers but it's not all doom and gloom just yet.

 

[dajesmac]

Have the pessimistic people who keep claiming that we're going to miss the finals actually checked out our draw?
We have 8 games at Domain/ 5 away games left.

Even if you think that we'll fall away badly and lose 4/5 of those away games (ie only beat the Suns) and 3/8 games at domain (ie lose to 3 of GWS, Adelaide, Geelong and Fremantle), we'll still end up with 12 wins (which will be enough to scrape into the finals this year).

But going through our draw, I honestly think we'll get 15-17 wins

GWS @ Home LOSS
GCS @ Away LOSS
Geelong @ Home LOSS
Melbourne @ Home WIN
W Bulldogs @ Away LOSS
P Adelaide @ Home WIN
Fremantle @ Home WIN
Collingwood @ Away LOSS
Brisbane @ Home WIN
St Kilda @ Away LOSS
Carlton @ Home WIN
GWS @ Away LOSS
Adelaide @ Home LOSS

Going through it as negatively as possible - it's conceivable that we end up with just eleven wins which would see us finish roughly tenth.

Personally I think we'll win a couple more than that - 13-9.

 

[CM9000]

Ladder position doesn't mean a whole lot after seven rounds. They're 5th now - still doesn't mean alot, particularly this season where everyone has been inconsistent to an extent.

Yeah, I think we're only a bit better. They've probably improved every game this season whereas we've stagnated. Both sides will probably be elimination finalists.

I think your severely underrating the team you support. Fremantle's improvement has been on the basis of some radical change (e.g. playing the youth) and a fixture that favours them pretty massively. The former can only last so long against the better teams, while the latter is pretty evident when you look at their last 5 games:
* Round 5: Win against North at Home
* Round 6: Loss against us at Home
* Round 7: Win Against Essendon at Home
* Round 8: Win Against Richmond Away
* Round 9: Win Against Carlton at Home

That's one game away out of five.

Likewise, when you look at us:
* Round 5: Loss Against Hawthorn Away
* Round 6: Win Against Freo at Home
* Round 7: Win Against Port Away
* Round 8: Win Against the Bulldogs at Home
* Round 9: Loss Against Essendon Away

That's 3 away games out of the same sample size.