Analysis Are we really contenders for the flag?

[MWPP]

GWS @ Home LOSS
GCS @ Away LOSS
Geelong @ Home LOSS
Melbourne @ Home WIN
W Bulldogs @ Away LOSS
P Adelaide @ Home WIN
Fremantle @ Home WIN
Collingwood @ Away LOSS
Brisbane @ Home WIN
St Kilda @ Away LOSS
Carlton @ Home WIN
GWS @ Away LOSS
Adelaide @ Home LOSS

Going through it as negatively as possible - it's conceivable that we end up with just eleven wins which would see us finish roughly tenth.

Personally I think we'll win a couple more than that - 13-9.

If I go through it as positively as possible:
GWS @ Home WIN
GCS @ Away WIN
Geelong @ Home WIN
Melbourne @ Home WIN
W Bulldogs @ Away LOSS
P Adelaide @ Home WIN
Fremantle* @ Home WIN
Collingwood* @ Away WIN
Brisbane @ Home WIN
St Kilda* @ Away WIN
Carlton @ Home WIN
GWS* @ Away WIN
Adelaide* @ Home WIN
18-4
I think we'll end up with 15- 17 wins though (and lose 1 to 3 of the asterisked games)

 

[Hap Hapablap]

with that midfield no ****en chance.

 

[Crimson King]

Unless our season goes massively pear shaped from here, we should still get around 15-16 wins with our draw and that means top 4 but in order to really cement ourselves as a true premiership contenders, we would have to get a scalp on the road in one or more of the away games vs Bullies, Saints and GWS. Then again it didn't really count for shit last season when we had a good finish to the home and away season so it is all down to playing group to put in the required effort to pinch a flag that is genuinely there for the taking.

 

[eaglesnutcase]

The big question is who is going to play the Bullies in the GF???

 

[dajesmac]

I think your severely underrating the team you support. Fremantle's improvement has been on the basis of some radical change (e.g. playing the youth) and a fixture that favours them pretty massively. The former can only last so long against the better teams, while the latter is pretty evident when you look at their last 5 games:
* Round 5: Win against North at Home
* Round 6: Loss against us at Home
* Round 7: Win Against Essendon at Home
* Round 8: Win Against Richmond Away
* Round 9: Win Against Carlton at Home

That's one game away out of five.

Likewise, when you look at us:
* Round 5: Loss Against Hawthorn Away
* Round 6: Win Against Freo at Home
* Round 7: Win Against Port Away
* Round 8: Win Against the Bulldogs at Home
* Round 9: Loss Against Essendon Away

That's 3 away games out of the same sample size.

True. They've also beaten the Demons and Tigers at the MCG which deserves some credit. They also dispatched Essendon, who then gave us an absolute footballing lesson - I know that was in Perth but it's still worth considering.

I do agree that we're better. WC winning the derby affirms this. Our best football eclipses theirs pretty easily, but they're playing to a better level of consistency. I don't think the gap is that big between the teams, and I suspect the next time we meet it will be a lot closer. If you asked me where I rank the respective sides, I'd probably rank us 7th and them, 9th-10th.

 

[getgaff]

In one word, NO

 

[Eagleboy68]

Fair enough, but do you really think the difference between us and Fremantle is only a shade? Remember that they were in the bottom 6 only 2 rounds ago.

Personally I think that given freos midfield and our propensity to wilt under pressure Freo has the edge next game.

If they get on top in the midfield we are goneski.

 

[Eagleboy68]

I think your severely underrating the team you support. Fremantle's improvement has been on the basis of some radical change (e.g. playing the youth) and a fixture that favours them pretty massively. The former can only last so long against the better teams, while the latter is pretty evident when you look at their last 5 games:
* Round 5: Win against North at Home
* Round 6: Loss against us at Home
* Round 7: Win Against Essendon at Home
* Round 8: Win Against Richmond Away
* Round 9: Win Against Carlton at Home

That's one game away out of five.

Likewise, when you look at us:
* Round 5: Loss Against Hawthorn Away
* Round 6: Win Against Freo at Home
* Round 7: Win Against Port Away
* Round 8: Win Against the Bulldogs at Home
* Round 9: Loss Against Essendon Away

That's 3 away games out of the same sample size.

And both of us have 1 win away each. With their win being at the mcg against a side we folded against

 

[MWPP]

And both of us have 1 win away each. With their win being at the mcg against a side we folded against

We have 2 away wins
One of our away wins was against a side they folded against (Port)

 

[Eagleboy68]

We have 2 away wins
One of our away wins was against a side they folded against (Port)

In that block of 5 we have 1 away win against port.
Where is the other one?

 

[ziad]

best not go there
too much less

gut-less
hope-less
spine-less
Nic-less

 

[MWPP]

In that block of 5 we have 1 away win against port.
Where is the other one?

I wasn't referring to the block of 5, just overall

 

[MWPP]

Unless our season goes massively pear shaped from here, we should still get around 15-16 wins with our draw and that means top 4

Agreed

but in order to really cement ourselves as a true premiership contenders, we would have to get a scalp on the road in one or more of the away games vs Bullies, Saints and GWS. Then again it didn't really count for shit last season when we had a good finish to the home and away season so it is all down to playing group to put in the required effort to pinch a flag that is genuinely there for the taking.

I'm confident that we'll take said scalp (I don't think Saints will count , even if we do beat then. But funnily enough GWS will ). I wish we played Adelaide on their turf .
But true , as you said, it didn't matter last year
It's going to come down to which team best times their form
We're in premiership contention (like many other teams ), and I'm quietly confident .

 

[eaglesnutcase]

Agreed


I'm confident that we'll take said scalp (I don't think Saints will count , even if we do beat then. But funnily enough GWS will ). I wish we played Adelaide on their turf .
But true , as you said, it didn't matter last year
It's going to come down to which team best times their form
We're in premiership contention (like many other teams ), and I'm quietly confident .

I'll have what hes having!

 

[MWPP]

I'll have what hes having!

She

 

[MWPP]

I'll have what hes having!

But given our record against GWS /our non-Vic state record , is it really such an outlandish statement? Beats whatever you're having

 

[Double the Fist]

We have a change. Its very small, but its still a chance.

 

[frenchconnection]

Personally I think that given freos midfield and our propensity to wilt under pressure Freo has the edge next game.

If they get on top in the midfield we are goneski.

Which means we need a good cleanout at seasons end - no front runners thanks! Need some mongrels.

 

[jonesy233]

Honest opinion from a Freo Supporter

I thought so at the start of the year but the way the guys lost to Essendon showed a lack of desire and that might not be a quick fix.

When I watch the Eagles play away from home I see a team who focus heavily on structure and skill, but without the heated desire to do whatever it takes. As we all know in big finals it is the latter that will be required. Watching Port play tonight away from home with great desire, one can get a glimpse of a team with clear Premiership aspirations.

It seems really simplistic, but what Eagles need is Nic Natanui back for some aggression and intensity. They also need a few young quick kids thrown into the midfield mix, not too many but enough to get some speed and enthusiasm back. The talent is there at West Coast and if they can get some passion back into their side they could be very dangerous.

I reckon Eagles can make top 4 and if they can get the intensity in their game, they are talented enough to go all the way.

 

[Yippy Yi Yeo]

Honest opinion from a Freo Supporter

I thought so at the start of the year but the way the guys lost to Essendon showed a lack of desire and that might not be a quick fix.

When I watch the Eagles play away from home I see a team who focus heavily on structure and skill, but without the heated desire to do whatever it takes. As we all know in big finals it is the latter that will be required. Watching Port play tonight away from home with great desire, one can get a glimpse of a team with clear Premiership aspirations.

It seems really simplistic, but what Eagles need is Nic Natanui back for some aggression and intensity. They also need a few young quick kids thrown into the midfield mix, not too many but enough to get some speed and enthusiasm back. The talent is there at West Coast and if they can get some passion back into their side they could be very dangerous.

I reckon Eagles can make top 4 and if they can get the intensity in their game, they are talented enough to go all the way.

Well constructed and thought out opinion, definitely resonates with the way that I see the team as well. A lot of talented players who are too focused on playing a certain system or gameplan, which leads to overthinking and lack of instinct, instead of just playing good, hard football.

 

[Mico89]

Fremantle are a better chance than us.

There. I said it.

Don't say such things...... freo played a team of younger players, something we should do

 

[eagles rule]

It's all or nothing this year I reckon as next year will see big list turnover ..
Petrie
Mitchell
Priddis
Lecra
McKenzie
Butler

All gone Retired .

 

[Eagleboy68]

It's all or nothing this year I reckon as next year will see big list turnover ..
Petrie
Mitchell
Priddis
Lecra
McKenzie
Butler

All gone Retired .

Don't think Lecras or McKenzie will be retired
Maybe McKenzie traded though.

 

[frenchconnection]

Don't say such things...... freo played a team of younger players, something we should do

BUT I think their younger players as a whole were better coached (Peel) in the 2s than our players at EP. Unfortunately we keep appointing novice coaches at EP as from my understanding the Peel coach has been around for awhile? Therefore not too sure too many of our younger players are AFL ready at this stage - maybe a couple after the bye with Venables, Rioli and a couple of others as if you push them too hard too early more often than not younger players can end up with OP.

 

[Mico89]

BUT I think their younger players as a whole were better coached (Peel) in the 2s than our players at EP. Unfortunately we keep appointing novice coaches at EP as from my understanding the Peel coach has been around for awhile? Therefore not too sure too many of our younger players are AFL ready at this stage - maybe a couple after the bye with Venables, Rioli and a couple of others as if you push them too hard too early more often than not younger players can end up with OP.

Yeah that's a good point but keep in mind they are still trained and coached by Simmo, its just game day when they have the less experienced and not so great coaching staff of the Royals..