Australian Survivor: Blood vs Water

[MrsEddieBetts]

Reminder that NO BETTING ODDS are to be posted otherwise you’ll be voted off the island.

 

[Lefthanded]

Outwit - strategy
Outplay - challenge and social
Outlast - obvious, be the last person left.

I think George has been close to perfect on the first, awful on the second and time will tell on the last. If he manages to win in spite of being horrendous at challenges and seemingly a bit of a dick socially it will be a testament to how good his strategic game was

I've always struggled with that definition of outlast as before the final vote they have literally lasted the same amount of time. Is it more about who has been to more tribals and more importantly who has been on the chopping block more yet survived? That sounds more like George but it undersells those who are able to use other skills to keep themselves off the chopping block all or most of the time (which admittedly is largely the outplay aspect.)
George better at strategy and idol hunting but did stuff up the first advantage and Hayley's use of the idol to split Brawn was up there with anything George has done IMO, it's just George has probably done more of it and has had the better read on things like Flick having an idol.
George has saved himself a lot of times but ironically I don't think he could have saved himself when Joey went if not for Hayley and that was HER move not his.

Edit: the more I think about it the more I think George's strategy was always strong, it's just that until the numbers got down his social aspect was so bad that he couldn't use his strategic mind.

 

[phantom13]

Think it’s just be the last person standing, flame still lit. That’s how I’ve taken it.

 

[muttley45]

I reckon George 100% in final 2, if Hayley wins immunity, she takes George, if Flick wins immunity, she takes George, or the absolute longshot, George wins immunity.

 

[JT_the_Man]

It is absolutely mental that George has made it to this point. He’d really want to sell just how many times his head was on the chopping block.

I’m still shocked he made it out of the first week after his shenanigans at the first tribal (granted, idols, but he’s still had a target painted on his back from day 1).

 

[Clubs are trumps]

Hayley and Dave the golden God should have babies together. Then in 2051 their children can go on a winning streak at international survivor.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Hayley and Dave the golden God should have babies together. Then in 2051 their children can go on a winning streak at international survivor.

What if the baby plays an idol and stays in.

 

[Tomnat Tigers]

Cara's jury villa segment


George deserves credit for keeping her in the game for as long as he did.


The cast of this season would have to look back at the moves they made early on and question why they made them. Sure you want to eliminate the big players but allowing goats like Cara to survive allows someone like George to make the moves that he has which has resulted in their exits. If I was ever on survivor I would be more worried about these guys who are unpredictable then the challenge beast, especially before individual merge.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Omg this is the biggest cake walk for hayley now

If hayley wins the challenge she boots flick and wins a landslide final vote against geogre
Emmet - Hayley
Dani - Hayley
Gerald - Hayley
Andrew - Hayley
Cara - George
Flick - Hayley
Wai - Hayley
Luara - Hayley
Baden - Hayley

If geogre wins he boots flick and hayley wins in a landslide

If flick wins she boots George and loses to Hayley 4-5 or 3-6
Emmet - Flick
Dani - Flick
Gerald - Flick
Andrew - Flick?
Cara - Hayley
George - Hayley
Wai - Hayley
Luara - Hayley
Baden - Hayley

If Flick wins she will not boot George. She knows everyone dislikes him and will vote with emotion. She will boot Haley if she wins.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Play the cards your dealt. Anyone who has won this game has ridden some degree of luck, you can’t blame her for it.

Again, if you win, you deserve it.

Disagree she is the least deserving by the length of the Flemington straight.
She will only beat George because of a bitter jury not because she played a better game than George or Haley lmfao!!

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

It’s just a bit of fun mate. You did list outlast which if flick wins she will have done but she’s not deserving in your opinion. Righto.

Well it's very clear who you want to win or have a massive crush on.
Can you please list the "moves" or influences or anything that stands out that Flick has done besides a bit of social game with Dani & Gerald & a last second immunity steal?
Remember she was voted out only to be saved by a 1 in 3 chance.

 

[Ochre]

What an episode by Hayley. To get both George and Cara to turn on in each other is I think one of the best moves I've seen in any Survivor in a long, long time. Hope she wins.

 

[squashface]

George made the right call. No way he’s getting near either Flick or Hayley in final immunity but he knows Flick has had a vendetta for him and won’t take him so he needs someone to win that might.

I still don’t see any possible timeline that Hayley doesn’t win final immunity and then the entire game. She beats Flick at final TC too by the way, she would absolutely have a final speech downpacked that talks about all her moves by this point.

That was set in stone every since she won her way back in from Redemption (in a challenge that was so incredibly tailored for her but that’s a grievance for another day).

 

[squashface]

What an episode by Hayley. To get both George and Cara to turn on in each other is I think one of the best moves I've seen in any Survivor in a long, long time. Hope she wins.

Was it really that good?

Didn’t think she really had any other play after Cara blabbed (effectively voting herself out here which is fitting as she’s probably one of the worst Survivor players of all time).

 

[phantom13]

Disagree she is the least deserving by the length of the Flemington straight.
She will only beat George because of a bitter jury not because she played a better game than George or Haley lmfao!!

Managing the jury is part of the gameplay. If you have a bitter jury then you didn’t play the best game. It’s a very important part of winning and not being runner up.

Well it's very clear who you want to win or have a massive crush on.
Can you please list the "moves" or influences or anything that stands out that Flick has done besides a bit of social game with Dani & Gerald & a last second immunity steal?
Remember she was voted out only to be saved by a 1 in 3 chance.

It’s evidently not that clear who I want to win. I think Hayley is the “most” deserving, regardless that’s only evidence of who I would vote for if I was on the jury. All three remaining survivors are deserving or worthy or however you want to frame it, that’s literally been my entire point. I don’t have to sit here and list off anyone’s moves because ultimately whoever gets the juries votes has played the right game to them. I don’t like George and I think ignoring the social and physical aspects of the game is not playing a complete survivor game but if the jury thinks he played the best game then he has, it’s that simple. If that’s the case then I will gladly applaud king George and tip the cap to him, just as if the jury decides flick played the best game then everyone else should.

I really don’t understand what’s so complicated about this concept.

 

[Coach Bombay]

Any talk of flick not being “deserving” is silly.

Whatever game gets you there and wins it is the right game. I can’t stand George but if he wins it he absolutely deserves it. Frankly anyone left in final 3 deserves it. I would have struggled to say this with a straight face had it been Cara…

I totally disagree. I can't think of one moment where Flick instigated a smart move. Literally not one. Where as I've lost count with George and Hayley. The gap is huge and I'll try to forget this season if she wins based on nothing but a bitter jury.

 

[jim_shoes]

If Flick wins she will not boot George. She knows everyone dislikes him and will vote with emotion. She will boot Haley if she wins.

She has said on the show she thinks geogre will twist everyone on jury using politician tricks and only voted hayley last night because she thinks she would win the endurance challenge

 

[Ry009]

George being a dick has been massively overblown and found his feet and reigned it in big time since the start of the season. Providing he owns his gameplay doesn't shitcan the jury, would still give him a big chance.

He has it over the other two, that despite not being a challenge threat, but being a big strategic threat...he's never been voted off.

Hayley at least won an endurance challenge to get back in the game, repaired bridges with the bloke she threw under the bus and has won a decent chunk of individual immunities.

Flick on the other hand, got voted out, came back in on random luck and through no effort. Had an idol, and still couldn't get out her preferred option.

The only thing that really stacks up on her resume is holding onto the idol instead of trying risk protecting Dani, and then winning two consecutive challenges if she's in the final two.

To me, there's enough for either George or Hayley to take care of Flick, and haven't seen enough from George to warrant being bitter enough to recognise his gameplay. He's nowhere near Russel.

If Flick wins, then that really sums up this season IMO.

She needs an awesome final tribal. I don't see her anything like Kristi or Pia at all to suggest she's capable of performing well. At all.

 

[Lefthanded]

George being a dick has been massively overblown and found his feet and reigned it in big time since the start of the season. Providing he owns his gameplay doesn't shitcan the jury, would still give him a big chance.

He has it over the other two, that despite not being a challenge threat, but being a big strategic threat...he's never been voted off.

Hayley at least won an endurance challenge to get back in the game, repaired bridges with the bloke she threw under the bus and has won a decent chunk of individual immunities.

Flick on the other hand, got voted out, came back in on random luck and through no effort. Had an idol, and still couldn't get out her preferred option.

The only thing that really stacks up on her resume is holding onto the idol instead of trying risk protecting Dani, and then winning two consecutive challenges if she's in the final two.

To me, there's enough for either George or Hayley to take care of Flick, and haven't seen enough from George to warrant being bitter enough to recognise his gameplay. He's nowhere near Russel.

If Flick wins, then that really sums up this season IMO.

She needs an awesome final tribal. I don't see her anything like Kristi or Pia at all to suggest she's capable of performing well. At all.

Generally a good summary but biggest omission IMO is her mental strength to keep going in spite of her mother dying whilst she's in the outback playing Survivor. Losing a parent is a time you'd normally want to be around family and friends. To lesser degree I would add that Flick maintained a working relationship with Hayley and was up front with her to say now was not the right time to work together but they left the door open for in the future. Contrast that to George and he's more a 'burn your bridges' type.

I'd also hazard that when Hayley was voted off she was the bigger strategic threat and George not being a challenge threat has helped him (as opposed to your verbiage "despite not being a challenge threat"

 

[Lefthanded]

IF George loses at FTC I'm looking forward to his Jack Nicholson meltdown (from movie A Few Good Men)

 

[phantom13]

George being a dick has been massively overblown and found his feet and reigned it in big time since the start of the season. Providing he owns his gameplay doesn't shitcan the jury, would still give him a big chance.

He has it over the other two, that despite not being a challenge threat, but being a big strategic threat...he's never been voted off.

Hayley at least won an endurance challenge to get back in the game, repaired bridges with the bloke she threw under the bus and has won a decent chunk of individual immunities.

Flick on the other hand, got voted out, came back in on random luck and through no effort. Had an idol, and still couldn't get out her preferred option.

The only thing that really stacks up on her resume is holding onto the idol instead of trying risk protecting Dani, and then winning two consecutive challenges if she's in the final two.

To me, there's enough for either George or Hayley to take care of Flick, and haven't seen enough from George to warrant being bitter enough to recognise his gameplay. He's nowhere near Russel.

If Flick wins, then that really sums up this season IMO.

She needs an awesome final tribal. I don't see her anything like Kristi or Pia at all to suggest she's capable of performing well. At all.

Russel never did what George did to Emmett (and perhaps Emmett doesnt care but its not smart play to audibly insult someone at a tribal where everyone can hear it). Andrew clearly cant stand him and the brawn tribe looked pretty horrified when Flick informed them of George just quitting on challenges.

I think this whole thing has been taken a little over the top. Personally i wouldn't vote for George (whilst also acknowledging hes been very very good strategically) and i suspect that a number of people on the jury would feel the same. I could be totally off.

The main point i am trying to make is that the final output of this game, as all Survivor seasons are, is to get the jurys vote.

Whoever gets that vote and wins, deserves to, as they have played the right game, at the right time, for the right audience (bearing in mind thats not us, thats the jury).

We can all sit here and say who we think should win and even say who is the most deserving, we can disagree on why but when the rules of the game stipulate that the jury decides saying someone doesnt deserve to win is misguided. If you put it in football terms youre saying the Dogs didnt deserve to win on the weekend because the Charlie Cameron was the highest scoring individual player, thats fine, but those arent the rules of the game.

If George has a bitter jury then he should have managed them better, if he doesnt and they crown him the champ then he is absolutely deserving, if Flicks story of perseverance and clutch immunity wins (she would surely need the next one) is what the jury values then she deserves it.

 

[Ochre]

Was it really that good?

Didn’t think she really had any other play after Cara blabbed (effectively voting herself out here which is fitting as she’s probably one of the worst Survivor players of all time).

It's not so much the strategy of the move, it's that she got one of the tightest duos in survivor history to turn on each other. Cara and George have been inseparable this whole game, and for a lot of it have had no one but each other. They've both played idols to save the other, and George was bawling his eyes out calling Cara his hero when she did. Even if it's the 'right' move for them it's not easy to get them to vote how they did.

 

[My Cotchin Rules]

Managing the jury is part of the gameplay. If you have a bitter jury then you didn’t play the best game. It’s a very important part of winning and not being runner up.



It’s evidently not that clear who I want to win. I think Hayley is the “most” deserving, regardless that’s only evidence of who I would vote for if I was on the jury. All three remaining survivors are deserving or worthy or however you want to frame it, that’s literally been my entire point. I don’t have to sit here and list off anyone’s moves because ultimately whoever gets the juries votes has played the right game to them. I don’t like George and I think ignoring the social and physical aspects of the game is not playing a complete survivor game but if the jury thinks he played the best game then he has, it’s that simple. If that’s the case then I will gladly applaud king George and tip the cap to him, just as if the jury decides flick played the best game then everyone else should.

I really don’t understand what’s so complicated about this concept.

Fair assessment but from I'm reading in here and which most people disagree with you is the bolded part.
I can tell you 100% that the jury will not think she actually played the "best" game. If they did then they clearly don't respect the game play of Haley & George.
You can have your opinion that's fine but it can perceived as a bit of a high school popular pick purely based on who they like.
She also has the sad back story of her mum passing which will play a huge part in swaying votes.
I personally think it should be a top 3 final. That way it's not usually a landslide win against a Goat or person they "hate" the most.

 

[phantom13]

Fair assessment but from I'm reading in here and which most people disagree with you is the bolded part.
I can tell you 100% that the jury will not think she actually played the "best" game. If they did then they clearly don't respect the game play of Haley & George.
You can have your opinion that's fine but it can perceived as a bit of a high school popular pick purely based on who they like.
She also has the sad back story of her mum passing which will play a huge part in swaying votes.
I personally think it should be a top 3 final. That way it's not usually a landslide win against a Goat or person they "hate" the most.

Again, reading the jury, if they like her and thats the sort of Jury this season got then George needed to work on them more.

The game as you put it isnt just one thing, its the sum of all the parts and only the jury gets to decide it. If the jury gives Flick the "high school popular pick purely based on who they like" as you put it then it was Georges mistake to not read that and play the social aspect of the game better. Youre defining the game as your (honestly pretty narrow) view of what that means and with due respect you dont get a vote on it, the jury do and if George loses it will be because the jury determined that someone played a better game than he did, in whatever way they define the game.

 

[Ry009]

Russel never did what George did to Emmett (and perhaps Emmett doesnt care but its not smart play to audibly insult someone at a tribal where everyone can hear it). Andrew clearly cant stand him and the brawn tribe looked pretty horrified when Flick informed them of George just quitting on challenges.

I think this whole thing has been taken a little over the top. Personally i wouldn't vote for George (whilst also acknowledging hes been very very good strategically) and i suspect that a number of people on the jury would feel the same. I could be totally off.

The main point i am trying to make is that the final output of this game, as all Survivor seasons are, is to get the jurys vote.

Whoever gets that vote and wins, deserves to, as they have played the right game, at the right time, for the right audience (bearing in mind thats not us, thats the jury).

We can all sit here and say who we think should win and even say who is the most deserving, we can disagree on why but when the rules of the game stipulate that the jury decides saying someone doesnt deserve to win is misguided. If you put it in football terms youre saying the Dogs didnt deserve to win on the weekend because the Charlie Cameron was the highest scoring individual player, thats fine, but those arent the rules of the game.

If George has a bitter jury then he should have managed them better, if he doesnt and they crown him the champ then he is absolutely deserving, if Flicks story of perseverance and clutch immunity wins (she would surely need the next one) is what the jury values then she deserves it.

Get where you're coming from, a lot of this will come out in the final tribal. If he absolutely bottles it in front of the jury, then of course, he won't have deserved to win.

Thats why with Cara going, it means that whoever the 2 that get through will have earned it.

I probably have more faith than you in George, and less in Flick to perform well in front of the jury.

Should be a good finale.

 

[phantom13]

Get where you're coming from, a lot of this will come out in the final tribal. If he absolutely bottles it in front of the jury, then of course, he won't have deserved to win.

Thats why with Cara going, it means that whoever the 2 that get through will have earned it.

I probably have more faith than you in George, and less in Flick to perform well in front of the jury.

Should be a good finale.

George has a play for sure, i dont think hes anywhere near as good with the pitch as others think, generally when he speaks it sounds like a really low level local politician, but he has played a great strategic game.

If he wins its deserves, if Hayley wins its deserves and if Flick wins its deserved. Ultimately whoever wins in Survivor is absolutely deserving because there is only one path to victory and that person found it, be it social, strategic, physical or even just genuinely surviving (without the medivac who know how this plays out). Frankly even if it was Cara and she won (i cant see how she would have but if she did) she would deserve it.