List Mgmt. Bailey Smith officially nominates Geelong

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Main thing for me is i doubt out first next year is 20.

We had a good injury run and found some depth in new kids this year and made a prelim. We had a bad injury run and found some depth in new kids last year and finished 12th.

Loss of depth with the retirements and a potentially harder draw, and that pick is 10 to 14 even with a good run. I think it's a big chance of being a single digit pick if we have a reversion to the mean on injuries. We are particularly exposed for key position depth if injuries strike so there's a good chance we see structural loss that we can't adapt to, if the wrong injuries strike it could get ugly.

I think if this trade ends up at two firsts with a second back that's a good chance of basically being the Dylan Shiel trade but for a player with fewer runs on the board at time of trade plus off field issues to navigate. That is plainly a bad deal.

Smith is a good step but not a full solution to the midfield mix and I think we need to be trading again next year. Losing that first constrains our options too much and would be a strategic error
100%. I think the draw is often understated. We had a relatively soft draw this year, which won't be the case next year.

Even this year, if we'd lost one more game (let's say we couldn't hang on against the dogs in gather round, or crows at home), we finish 7th. That's with no double ups against the top 4 teams (top 5 minus us). Next year could see us perform just as well and end up finishing mid-table. If we underperform by a bit, we could comfortably miss finals. I doubt the club would risk our first rounder unless they absolutely had to (and they don't).
 
100%. I think the draw is often understated. We had a relatively soft draw this year, which won't be the case next year.

Even this year, if we'd lost one more game (let's say we couldn't hang on against the dogs in gather round, or crows at home), we finish 7th. That's with no double ups against the top 4 teams (top 5 minus us). Next year could see us perform just as well and end up finishing mid-table. If we underperform by a bit, we could comfortably miss finals. I doubt the club would risk our first rounder unless they absolutely had to (and they don't).
Melbourne 2 wins off 8th and one ladder position above bottom 4 tells the story
 

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Not the first time a recruit takes a current players number
Plus 6 hasn't exactly been lucky for him

Last time I can remembering that happening was when Buddy joined Sydney

I can't remember a new recruit at Geelong ever taking the number of a current player
 
Even when Gaz came home. He or someone asked for 29. Cam Guthrie said no and Gazza wore 4.

I reckon it was more someone else asking if he would want the#29 back rather than him asking for it


I remember a story that came out a couple of years after Jed had been on the list - during this first pre-season when the team had gone away for a summer camp, Stokes pulled him aside for a chat and offered him the#27 as his dad had worn. Jed declined, telling Stokes that it was his number, he had won premierships in it and he wanted to make his own name, in his own number
 

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The discussions here sound pretty confident we get him.
I ask, is he really worth it and at what cost?
When he had his "issues" some years ago, then the ACL, I thought to myself- glad he's not on our list.
Leopards... spots...
I know SJ turned things around dramatically well.
Again, if this is the direction the club wants to go down, chasing BS, then fine.
But similarly, if it does not get done, I'm even happier
 
The discussions here sound pretty confident we get him.
I ask, is he really worth it and at what cost?
When he had his "issues" some years ago, then the ACL, I thought to myself- glad he's not on our list.
Leopards... spots...
I know SJ turned things around dramatically well.
Again, if this is the direction the club wants to go down, chasing BS, then fine.
But similarly, if it does not get done, I'm even happier
He'll be in the hoops, so confident of that we can start discussing numbers.
 
The discussions here sound pretty confident we get him.
I ask, is he really worth it and at what cost?
When he had his "issues" some years ago, then the ACL, I thought to myself- glad he's not on our list.
Leopards... spots...
I know SJ turned things around dramatically well.
Again, if this is the direction the club wants to go down, chasing BS, then fine.
But similarly, if it does not get done, I'm even happier
He's a gun player who is only 23 and will be part of our core for many years to come. Watch his highlights reel! Absolutely worth a late first rounder.
 

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List Mgmt. Bailey Smith officially nominates Geelong

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