Opinion Football in no man's land - Geelong 2024.

[SkittleCats]

Feel like we need a poll.

Not that our opinions are going to sway the clubs' views whatsoever....but it would be interesting to see where the faithful sits.

It's looking likely we're going to have a pretty juicy pick for the third year in a row now, which hasn't been the case for us in over 20 years.

With Stengle's departure to the highest bidder appearing imminent, it's highly likely that's two very good picks to work with.

Let's just say for the sake of argument that these picks end up being 8 & 9.

Do we

A) Go to the draft, and pick 2 elite midfield prospects in a midfield heavy top 20.

B) Attempt a 2015 off-season 2.0 of sorts, and go for Smith, Oliver, Macrae, and whoever else has been rumoured to replace the retirements that way.

C) A mixture of both (E.g trade one pick and keep the other while going to the draft)

*********************

Personally, I'm not married to any scenario, and will back whichever path the club takes.

Gun to my head though, at this moment I'd be leaning to taking the two top 10 picks.

Attempt to finish off the midfield rebuild in terms of talent accumulation, and then in the coming years, we can look to re-tool the forwardline through the draft or FA.

The idea would be to take some medicine now, and have our list peaking with a sustainable premiership window around the time Tassie come in.

Really look to capitalise on those years, where the league is going to be a mess. Similar to what Hawthorn did a decade ago.

By that point, these names will be coming into their prime football years, aided by veterans* in:

Defenders

• Sam De Koning
• Connor O'Sullivan
• Lawson Humphries
• Oisin Mullin
• Jack Henry*
• Zach Guthrie*
• Jack Bowes*

Midfield

• Toby Conway
• Max Holmes
• Tanner Bruhn
• Jhye Clark
• Ollie Dempsey
• Mitch Knevitt
• Pick 8 2024
• Pick 9 2024

Forwards

• Shannon Neale
• Ollie Henry
• Brad Close*
• Gryan Miers*

Jury is out, but promising

• George Stevens
• Ted Clohesy
• Mitch Edwards

*******************

It's all projection obviously, but if I had to choose, this would be the way forward IMO.

Would be happy to hear everyone's thoughts though, and views on what route we should take from here.

You left a few out of your "The Jury is out" section: Neale, SDK, Mullin, Knevitt, Humphries, Clark and COS cannot be considered anything more than potential at this stage. This is the problem with the notion of a rebuild. If all of those players end up being total busts (which is possible) and then we go full rebuild and load up on picks that also end up being nothing...Well that's how you become North Melbourne, with a shattered club culture and staring down the barrel of at least a generation turning your list over to find the magic combination that gets you back into finals.

Geelong wont do that, if for no other reason than the AFL draft and the talent pathways that lead into it are probably the worst in all of global professional sport, so depending on it to infuse your club with the talent you need in any reliable way can only be a recipe for disaster. We will get Smith, we will go hard for LDU, even if that means breaking the vaunted "dont overpay" philopsphy and we will back in Bruhn, Dempsey, Holmes, and Conway. That still leaves us with maybe 1 top 10 pick this year and that is a good balance i think moving forward.

 

[unfollowed]

The cliff…. It came and came quick.

Noooo, it’s been predicted as coming since October 2008, then after the prelim in 2010, after the prelim in 2013, then after the 2020 GF, etc.

It’s been a looong time coming.

 

[sexyhunk]

Yeah I just don't like Jack Henry playing accountable 1:1 much. He's better for zoning 3rd tall stuff I think.

i think so too, like a tom stewart replacement but then what about zach guthrie

 

[CatToTheFuture]

i think so too, like a tom stewart replacement but then what about zach guthrie

I think you can play multiple players that zone off, but if you don't have pressure on the ball carrier you're out of position. It requires string defensive work from the midfield, which until now we've had.

 

[sexyhunk]

I think you can play multiple players that zone off, but if you don't have pressure on the ball carrier you're out of position. It requires string defensive work from the midfield, which until now we've had.

issue can be that you require a guy who has good game sense to essentially leave an oppo on their own for him go for the mark or spoil. if you have multiple guys doing that, if they get in each other way you left with multiple oppo running around in your 50. but yes, midfield is key. wont need to worry about going third up if ball dont come inside.

 

[Cataholic]

There's one other variable amidst the consternation and debate about the holes in our list, the quality of our kids, and the cliff that has loomed so suddenly on our elders......Chris Scott

Chris Scott

Age

48

Ht

182cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

5.4

4star

M

5.1

5star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.4

3star

No current season stats available

D

13.2

4star

K

10.2

4star

HB

3.0

3star

M

2.2

3star

T

2.8

5star

G

0.4

3star

.

He's been at the helm a long time, and is naturally closer to the end than the beginning.

Does he push on? How long for? Does he have the appetite and stamina to guide the team through what I suspect will be a few lean years to return the club to the pointy end?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

There's one other variable amidst the consternation and debate about the holes in our list, the quality of our kids, and the cliff that has loomed so suddenly on our elders......Chris Scott.

He's been at the helm a long time, and is naturally closer to the end than the beginning.

Does he push on? How long for? Does he have the appetite and stamina to guide the team through what I suspect will be a few lean years to return the club to the pointy end?

I think he's shown an ability to adapt. This is probably the first time the coaching group has put forward a strategy and it has just not translated.

I think the last thing we'd want is off field churn with the on field churn at the same time.

This strategy they took into the season where we know we're losing the contests so absorb in the back half and rebound through runners was a good idea. On paper it accepted a deficiency we couldn't change and used strengths to counter attack. It just stops working if the opposition forwards are allowed to just wrap their arms around our intercepting defenders and not get pinged. Our strategy has been umpired out of it and we don't have the cattle for a plan B. That's not on the coach

 

[Gavin Excell]

Scott isn't the sort of coach to make drastic change so I don't really see anything other than tinkering with the side.

At the very least id like to see the club tell Neale we are going to back you in over the next month in Hawks absence and hopefully he grabs the opportunity

 

[D BRIDGE]

Scott isn't the sort of coach to make drastic change so I don't really see anything other than tinkering with the side.

At the very least id like to see the club tell Neale we are going to back you in over the next month in Hawks absence and hopefully he grabs the opportunity

I'll be extremely worried about Neale's future if he doesn't play out the entire year (assuming Hawk is done).

 

[BlakeyNoFlakey]

I'm a glass-half-full guy when it comes to the Cats. I think we have a terrific bunch of younger players coming up who will turn us into a very good team in a few years. I also think that what we basically lack at this point is a couple of A-grade midfielders to turn our stoppage and clearance game around and give our defenders the support they need (which is lacking at the moment). Even if Stengle leaves, I think our forward line will still be good. These problems can be fixed in a couple of trade/draft periods, IMO. The Cats need to do this pronto before Tassie comes into play and poaches players. My biggest concern with Tassie looming is the Cats sticking to their "we don't pay overs" rule. I think to get a couple of really good midfielders into the club they may need to open the purse strings this time.

 

[Cataholic]

I think he's shown an ability to adapt. This is probably the first time the coaching group has put forward a strategy and it has just not translated.

I think the last thing we'd want is off field churn with the on field churn at the same time.

This strategy they took into the season where we know we're losing the contests so absorb in the back half and rebound through runners was a good idea. On paper it accepted a deficiency we couldn't change and used strengths to counter attack. It just stops working if the opposition forwards are allowed to just wrap their arms around our intercepting defenders and not get pinged. Our strategy has been umpired out of it and we don't have the cattle for a plan B. That's not on the coach

All valid points, but I was focusing moreso on Scott himself and what drive he has to continue as coach, and for how much longer.

Does he have the patience to wait for the next generation to step up?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

All valid points, but I was focusing moreso on Scott himself and what drive he has to continue as coach, and for how much longer.

Does he have the patience to wait for the next generation to step up?

I think he likes a challenge. If it starts not working then he might move on

 

[Biggy_Boy]

Noooo, it’s been predicted as coming since October 2008, then after the prelim in 2010, after the prelim in 2013, then after the 2020 GF, etc.

It’s been a looong time coming.

Those were finals losses. We didn't make finals last year, and despite our good start to the year, we are now playing worse than we did last year. At least last year we were consistently competitive and made a good contest in most games. Our biggest loss was 38 points against Power at their home ground. In most cases the games weren't being taken away from us entirely.

Contrast that to the last couple of months, and it feels like we have definitely fallen down a cliff's edge. We have multiple games where we have not been competitive and where the game has been completely taken away from us. The Suns game, the first half of the Port game, the Carlton game - the only year in recent memory that was so bad was 2015. But we don't have a Dangerfield coming at year's end this time, and even if he was we don't have the same kind of talent in the existing group now.

 

[Cataholic]

I think he likes a challenge. If it starts not working then he might move on

That's what I've been thinking, and haven't seen it considered much amongst the debate over the holes in our lists, the quality of our kids, strategy etc.

We've got a bit going on, and it'll add another layer of complexity if Scott were to decide he's too tired to see it through.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Those were finals losses. We didn't make finals last year, and despite our good start to the year, we are now playing worse than we did last year. At least last year we were consistently competitive and made a good contest in most games. Our biggest loss was 38 points against Power at their home ground. In most cases the games weren't being taken away from us entirely.

Contrast that to the last couple of months, and it feels like we have definitely fallen down a cliff's edge. We have multiple games where we have not been competitive and where the game has been completely taken away from us. The Suns game, the first half of the Port game, the Carlton game - the only year in recent memory that was so bad was 2015. But we don't have a Dangerfield coming at year's end this time, and even if he was we don't have the same kind of talent in the existing group now.

Depends on how you classify talent.

You're right that we don't have a prime aged Hawkins, Selwood, or Taylor on the list right now.

What we do have is considerably better young talent, which will influence our thinking this off-season.

I don't think anyone believes we're one player away from going back to the top immediately...but what we do need is players who can bridge the gap between eras.

A great crop of kids who are all too young to carry the side, combined with a cooked veteran core with SFA in the prime age range is how you get to where we are now.

We won the flag, so we wouldn't change anything obviously...but it's the '13, '14, & '15, drafts that are coming back to haunt us right now.

We've amended that in '19, 20, 21, 22, and seemingly '23....but it's going to take a while for that to bear fruit.

All we can do in the meantime is bring in some quality players around 23-25 to keep the side afloat while the list transitions and the youngsters develop.

 

[petrolium]

If you look at our draft selections from 2013-2017, it’s easily to see why we’ve got such a hole in a list profile from mid to late 20s. I know we traded out much of our earlier selections in many of these drafts, but it’s clearly come to bite us in the backside.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

If you look at our draft selections from 2013-2017, it’s easily to see why we’ve got such a hole in a list profile from mid to late 20s. I know we traded out much of our earlier selections in many of these drafts, but it’s clearly come to bite us in the backside.

In fairness this should have bitten us 3 years ago

 

[Biggy_Boy]

If you look at our draft selections from 2013-2017, it’s easily to see why we’ve got such a hole in a list profile from mid to late 20s. I know we traded out much of our earlier selections in many of these drafts, but it’s clearly come to bite us in the backside.

With the way we picked talent early in the draft, we actually would have been better off trading them all away.

Thurlow
Lang
Cockatoo
Fogarty
Clark
Stephens

That's a consecutive run of first round/early draft picks. We didn't have many of them, of course, but it's a 100% failure rate, and there was plenty of quality around those picks we could have accrued. As I said, we might as well have just traded the picks away.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

If you look at our draft selections from 2013-2017, it’s easily to see why we’ve got such a hole in a list profile from mid to late 20s. I know we traded out much of our earlier selections in many of these drafts, but it’s clearly come to bite us in the backside.

Has it bitten us though? The aim of the game is premierships.
We won in '22 vindicating our work.

2013 traded veterans Kelly, Possibly, Chapman, as well as West. One of those picks netted us Kolodjashnij in the draft.

2014. Traded Christensen for a pick we used on Stanley.

2015. Traded for Dangerfield, among others. Pick swaps netted us the draft choice to use on Menegola.

2016. Traded for Tuohy. Caddy trade got us the pick used on Parfitt.

2017. Lost Motlop to FA. Used pick to trade for Ablett, accompanying pick them used on Kelly. Traded to WCE later on for picks used even later on for Jeremy Cameron.

I could go on for further years but we get the picture. Every year you mentioned we traded for key pieces to our recent premiership. If a lack of 25-29 yo now is the trade off in 2024 then I'd say 99.9% of cats fans would accept that sacrifice for what we saw in September 2022.

 

[TheYid]

I'm a glass-half-full guy when it comes to the Cats. I think we have a terrific bunch of younger players coming up who will turn us into a very good team in a few years. I also think that what we basically lack at this point is a couple of A-grade midfielders to turn our stoppage and clearance game around and give our defenders the support they need (which is lacking at the moment). Even if Stengle leaves, I think our forward line will still be good. These problems can be fixed in a couple of trade/draft periods, IMO. The Cats need to do this pronto before Tassie comes into play and poaches players. My biggest concern with Tassie looming is the Cats sticking to their "we don't pay overs" rule. I think to get a couple of really good midfielders into the club they may need to open the purse strings this time.

Good man. I agree

 

[Warhorse]

Our young talent is extremely over rated. Outside of Holmes we don't have any young players who look like future A Graders.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Our young talent is extremely over rated. Outside of Holmes we don't have any young players who look like future A Graders.

They don't all need to be stars though

 

[Warhorse]

They don't all need to be stars though

I'm not talking about stars though, I'm talking about A grade players.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'm not talking about stars though, I'm talking about A grade players.

Pretty loose definition, but still agree Holmes is in there. I think Dempsey has the potential to be but not yet and not sure why SDK isn't but he isn't and should be. Conway has that potential too.

How many do you think we need though? Trade for smith I think will add one. I think we only need 3 players. 2 mids and a key forward.

 

[DanA]

This easily could have been a 'roast' prefixed thread but chose to leave it open for opinions rather than somewhere to rant or vent.

But in all seriousness, what are we trying to do this season. We don't appear to be going for the flag, or anywhere good enough to go for the flag.
But we're also not a bottom 4 club pumping games at will to anyone under 22.

So what we have is a sprinkling of youth learning the game, learning their craft and finding their feet at league level. While also having to take up some of the slack that fading veterans are no longer able to absorb by themselves anymore.

Defensively we appear to have taken steps backward in terms of ability, cohesion and understanding. Stewart is getting tagged, Henry has been up and down. SDK still looks timid. Only Zuthrie and Kolo seem to either have held ground or continued to improve.

In the middle is where the real issues lie, it's not just that we get belted in clearances and contests but it's also that when the game is at its hottest in first halves we get obliterated. We wear out our backline defending grimly and only start to come into games once the sting has gone out of it.

On the one hand lots of these guys like Holmes, Conway, Clark, Bruhn, Bowes appear to have many years left in the game and some improvement as years go on should be expected. Worryingly we're still reliant on 34yo Dangerfield to be remotely competitive in the midfield.

The conundrum is whether sticking with it now for the very bad short term pain will lead to long term gains, or should we pivot and get different looks in there and reward VFL form.

Hawkins, Cameron and Neale are also becoming troublesome. JC has had a role flip that hasn't been working. Hawkins is on his last legs, 3 months from retirement. But Neale still struggles to impress. Ollie Henry when we're not getting supply is also a worry and clubs are now putting attention into Miers. Should Stengle leave we are all of a sudden short of goal kicking small forwards as Close and Dempsey are inconsistent scorers.

IMV I think we need to concede that even if we make finals, and finals experience would be good for our young group of players, that we are not winning it this year. So would like to see the next 6 weeks used to try some new things. SDK in the ruck tonight. Give Humphries a look at HBF. Try Stewart in the midfield. Give Mannagh and Hardie a crack. There'd be others as well.

I'd like to see Blicavs and Atkins dropped. See what football without them looks like.
Hawkins is injured tonight so likely get another look at Neale. Send Mullin back to learn midfield in the VFL.

We're rolling out the same core group, with the same basic structure. And we're getting the same results playing the same dour and boring style.
Time to try something new, and to try different personnel or roles.

For me, we are developing Mullins, Dempsey, O.Henry, Conway, Neale, Clark and Bruhn. That’s about as much as you can do, you still need veterans to teach them and if you don’t have then you risk becoming a club that meanders for a decade rebuilding with kids never getting the guidance to reach their level best. It’s a balance I think we’ve got broadly right.


We offloaded Menegola, Ceglar, and Isaac Smith last year. This year we’ll probably lose Hawkins, Rohan, Stanley, and Bews. Potentially one or two more of Duncan, Touhy, and Danger as well….I don’t think there’s much more we can do. I’m not of the opinion that you want to completely creator.