BigFooty Official Big Footy 2016 Phantom Draft

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Gonna go out on a limb and say Knightmare will match Daicos ;)

North select Zac Fisher (Perth/Western Australia) 175cm 70kg

Fisher is a smaller type but has a number of good noticeable traits. Despite being 175cm/70kg, Fisher wins more than 40 per cent of his possessions on the inside and uses quick hands to dispose of the ball from stoppages.

He has good pace and is not afraid to take the game on which is something I feel North need a bit more of, especially with Boomer retiring. While he has primarily played off half-back, Fisher has been able to play through the middle and up forward, kicking six goals in 10 games and averaging 18.7 disposals in the WAFL.

Most importantly, Fisher has that experience against senior bodies so if required he could fill a role from round one, but it is likely he will work on his kicking a little more. Up forward he could be more damaging to start his career, and he will likely move into the midfield down the track at AFL level.

Anyone who watched Western Australia’s game against the Allies in the National Under 18s Championships would have been impressed with Fisher, and he continued on the good form to win WA’s Most Valuable Player for the tournament.

He is a good value pick here as many of the West Australians are not always given as much coverage as other players, but I feel Fisher could develop into a fine utility.
 

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GWS from all reports are only picking three players at the draft, I still struggle to see them picking up Mutch.
Yeah wouldn't surprise me. A couple of months ago Cumming would not have been in discussions despite doing a few nice things. He's probably my tip to be a surprise bolter. Do have my next pick lined up if it is matched.
 
Pick 23 - Brisbane write up:

Brandan Parfitt

I think Parfitt has to be the most underappreciated player in this draft. He has excelled at every level and he has got a lot of elite traits that will translate to AFL football. There are only a few players who can take over and dominate a game in this draft and Parfitt is one of them. In Div 2 I have watched him both this year and last and he has been fantastic as the midfield leader of the NT side. Kennelly (who is an abysmal coach imo) insisted on playing him mostly deep forward a lot for the Allies and he did not stand out but if you paid attention when he was in the middle you would have noticed that he was actually one of the Allies most effective midfielders. Kennelly played favourites to the detriment of his team and the kids who deserved more of a chance than he provided. The Allies and the team he coached in the All Star game both badly underperformed and guys like Parfitt are going to fall down the pecking order because of his incompetence.

Anyway enough of my rant on Kennelly's shortcomings. Parfitt I think is right with Brodie and SPS as the best inside ball winners in this draft. Parfitt is not tall but he is powerful over the ball and is probably one of the most difficult guys to get on the ground in this draft. He has a low centre of gravity and is exceptionally well balanced. He has good elusiveness but is scragged a fair bit but rarely goes to ground. He has a serious of go to moves and excels at getting through, around or shrugging these tackles. He takes his time getting the ball out from the clearances which often sees him end up in the grasp but he rarely dies with the ball, keeping his arms free excellently and getting the ball away almost without fail. He positions himself well to receive at the ruck and is an elite read of the taps whether from his own or the opposition ruckman.

When playing though the midfield he spreads well and links up well. He can rack up big numbers if he is given the opportunity for example in Round 21 of the SANFL U18s he collected 47 disposals, 10 marks and 10 clearances in a hugely dominant display. Parfitt is a bit of a confidence player and is at his best when he is the main man in his team. He can go into his shell a little when he is not valued highly. I think his coach is going to need to be cognisant of this and manage him accordingly and it could take him a little while to really come into his own at AFL level.

The one area where he really needs to work on in his kicking. At the moment he is pretty untidy and misses targets too regularly. He is capable of delivering some really nice kicks especially into 50 but at the moment he is too casual and perhaps a bit eager to get it onto the boot rather than taking the half second more to balance up and fix his target in his mind. When he is in space he can be very damaging but he does waste a lot of possessions at the moment or not make them count as much as he could. I am not exactly sure what makes me have this opinion but I get the impression that Parfitt's kicking might be something which can be turned around fairly easily. Up forward I am less confident. He was put in the forward pocket in a lot of rep games this year and I am not convinced that he will be best served to play there at the next level. He does some good things and gets some chances but I do not think he has great goal sense and his finishing is quite poor.

Where Parfitt does add value no matter where he is playing on the ground is with his defensive work. He reminds me a lot of Cyril with his tackling and chase effort. When you look at Parfitt you do not expect a speedster but that is deceiving. He has really nice pace, plays the angles really well and chases with 100% effort. Take a look at the run downs of Rotham and Piper at the Champs. Both are speedsters and Parfitt mowed them down in the open field. The Piper one was particularly of note for me given it was over about 40m and is not the kind of chase you often see from the star players at junior level. Parfitt is a very willing tackler and if he gets his chance in the midfield at AFL level his tackle numbers will be very good.

If the pundits are true and Parfitt goes outside the top 30 I think someone is going to get a serious bargain. As you can see I rate him highly and think he could end up one of the steals of the draft.
 
Pick 22 - Brisbane write up

Shai Bolton

Bolton is the kind of flashy impact player that some team falls in love with each year and ends up going higher than most expect. I rate Bolton's ability to bring his game to the AFL and am willing to back him in to succeed.

The two issues that I have with Bolton are that he is short and the fact that I would like him to find more of the ball. You can't do much about the former but I can see Bolton finding more of the ball as he improves his endurance. His endurance is on the low end of acceptable but like most of the indigenous guys I expect his tank to improve significantly once he gets into a full time environment. The rest of his athletic profile though is impressive. He ran a 2.95 in the 20m, was right at the top of the jumps and was a 25.10 in the repeat sprint.

As is often the case for guys who don't train for it (see Cyril) Bolton struggled in the agility test a bit. You only have to watch him play though to recognise that he has exceptional agility. He plays at pace and his cuts are sharp and clean. His stop and go work are the best in this draft class and he is generally very elusive. With all that said I do think he needs a bit of work on selling his steps and direction changes. His moves can be read and he will be nailed on occasions.

The player I would compare him to is Lewis Jetta. Like Jetta, Bolton is a line breaker. He loves a run and his long, balanced gait eats up the turf. He is an outside player but his hands are exceptionally clean below his knees. He specialises in his one handed pick-ups at pace and will be there and gone before the opponents can shut his down and once he is gone he can get in behind defensive zones very quickly. He is mostly an outside player but he can go inside on occasions and he is okay in the phone box despite being very much a string bean. Like Jetta, Bolton has a very lean build and really needs to put on some muscle to compete fully at AFL level.

One thing that really stands out for Bolton is the pace at which he plays the game. Whilst that makes a lot of things happen when he gets the ball it can affect his kicking. He is a bit scrappy at the moment and often just misses his targets. I think when he gets into an AFL team his coaches are going to stress that he needs to take his time and concentrate a bit more and perhaps slow down marginally as he delivers. He seems to be quite good off either foot and I really do think the issues he has at the moment arise from his desire to do everything at full speed. He does slow and balance when kicking for goal and is a pretty good finisher. He might start his career as a small forward and he has pretty good goal sense and finishing ability.

Bolton does some decent defensive work but I would not say it is a big part of his game at the moment. He is a decent tackler for an outside junior and he will mix it up well for a guy who weighs virtually nothing. He does have a bit of a hunter mentality though and I could see him bringing that to his work as a defensive forward. He has the closing speed to shut defenders down as they are trying to exit the defensive 50.

Another big positive for me with Bolton are his 1%er work. He has a real impact on games with his smothers, tap ons etc. Bolton is a footballer and reads the play really nicely and knows what he has to do to help his team. He will get his hand in where it needs to go or just be in the right place. Overall I think he is a nice prospect in the second half of the first round or beginning of the second and could be a nice finishing touch for a team who have their engine room sorted out.
 
Pick 3 - Brisbane write up

Ben Ainsworth

Coming into the Champs this year I was sceptical about claims that Ainsworth should be considered a top 3 pick. For me you do not take an under 180cm small forward, with limited demonstrated ability to play in the midfield, in the midfield. Then I watched him play at the Champs and I watched him play some small patches in the midfield and I am now onboard.

I doubt you will find anyone who has watched Ainsworth a lot who does not think he will be an excellent forward at AFL level. Despite lacking a bit of height, Ainsworth is an excellent mark overhead with the common comparison being to Jamie Elliott. Ainsworth has a great stretch and often you think the ball is going over his head before he goes up just a bit further and bringing it down. He times his jumps very well and arrives at the ball at just the right time. His timing and reading of the ball in the air is as good as you are going to see in a small forward.

When you watch Ainsworth play you can't help but notice how many times he is 2 or 3 metres ahead of his opponent on the lead. Despite a fairly solid build Ainsworth is extremely quick (he recorded 2.90 over the 20m sprint at the Combine) and he uses that to good effect in games. He times his leads really well and leads to dangerous spots. If you watch him he is also a forward who reacts very quickly to what is happening up the ground and once he gets a step or two on an opponent he is not being caught. He can sustain a lead and will get marks up onto the wing even when he is stationed as a deep leading forward. One slight worry was how he performed when he was matched up on genuinely quick opponents. At the Champs when he was matched up on McGrath and Long he was very quiet. I do think it is a bit of an overreaction to read too much into those two match ups. He has been dominating as a forward for two years now and has regularly gotten good defenders with speed. With that said it is something to keep an eye on and he will be matched up on more guys who are close to as quick as he is when he gets to the AFL and he is going to need to rely on other tricks than just his pace.

One other thing to consider for those quiet games was how much time Ainsworth had missed up to that stage of the season. He had a very interrupted first half of the year after suffering a broken wrist and then suffered a knee injury which kept him out for a month. Also coming into the Champs he was forced to miss a month through suspension. At the Champs Ainsworth looked quick but was perhaps a little soft around the edges. I thought he looked a harder body in the All Star game in Grand Final week. One of the things Ainsworth needed to work on this year to assuage some of the concerns about his midfield ability was his endurance. His beep test at the Combine would have been one of the most closely observed to see if he had improved his tank over the year. When he ran a 14.3 I am sure a few teams picking at the beginning of the draft probably breathed a sigh of relief knowing that they can pick him with some confidence that he will have the tank to run for extended periods through the midfield at the next level.

At the Champs he played some time through the midfield and I thought he looked very good when he did. Coming out of the Champs he started to up his midfield time at TAC level and he got better and better. By the end of the year he was dominating and putting up huge disposal numbers. Like he demonstrates up forward, Ainsworth has extremely clean hands below the knees and when you combine that with his explosive pace he can pick up the ball and go before others react. When I watched Ainsworth through the midfield I always found myself wondering why the ball just seemed to follow him around. The number of times the ball just seems to fall to him is amazing. Eventually you just have to concede that it is not luck and rather Ainsworth just reads the play exceptionally well and puts himself in the right position a step ahead of everyone else.

When Ainsworth gets the ball he evaluates his options very quickly and will not always just go to the easiest and first option. Coming out of contested situations Ainsworth might have the most hurt factor in this draft. He often takes high risk high reward options and is good enough to hit the target and create an opportunity for his side. Ainsworth is not a big outside runner at the moment but when he does get up and running he covers the ground very quickly without seeming to be putting in too much effort. I think there is a lot of potential for him to have a very damaging outside game as he continues to build his engine. In traffic he is strong and balanced and although he does not seem very elusive that might be deceptive given he is not tackled a lot. By foot and hand Ainsworth is good but probably a bit below elite. Similarly up forward he is a good but not quite elite shot at goal.

The one area where Ainsworth is wanting is in the defensive side of the game. He does have a bit of the superstar approach to defensive running and tackling ie those are jobs for the plebs. That is going to need to change at the next level and he is going to be criticised a fair bit early in his career I think for that. From all I have heard though Ainsworth is a really good guy and I am sure he will get with the program and put in the effort even if it is not his natural inclination.
 
GWS from all reports are only picking three players at the draft, I still struggle to see them picking up Mutch.
I think they would have expected three bids in the first 18 picks
or so with Setterfield, Macreadie and Perryman this is strange
it makes no sense nominating Gold Coast guys when they have
four picks in the top ten. GWS should be attacked early when
the points are against them.
 
I think they would have expected three bids in the first 18 picks
or so with Setterfield, Macreadie and Perryman this is strange
it makes no sense nominating Gold Coast guys when they have
four picks in the top ten. GWS should be attacked early when
the points are against them.
Completely agree, people are not bidding on academy kids because "they won't get them"


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great write ups Quigley , thanks for your efforts, you really have me liking Parfitt now, do you see him as a realistic chance of being picked up by us?

you obviously rate him very highly from a power ranking perspective but where would you have him going if you did a phantom draft?
 

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I think they would have expected three bids in the first 18 picks
or so with Setterfield, Macreadie and Perryman this is strange
it makes no sense nominating Gold Coast guys when they have
four picks in the top ten. GWS should be attacked early when
the points are against them.
Macreadie's star has fallen significantly. It's unlikely he is bid on inside the first 25-30 picks.

You want to bid early on an academy player to force an academy teams hand. You better be prepared to have the bid not matched.

Targeting academy clubs has to be done strategically. It makes no sense to target academy clubs just to "make them pay". You have to look at how many list spots academy clubs expect to fill at the draft, where their draft picks fall and where their academy kids are rated. Next season will see a change in draft strategy for Academy clubs with the new rules coming in.
 
I struggle with Drew, and wouldn't take him in within the first three rounds. I feel like he's good at what he does, but doesn't have the versatility or edge to his game. It's getting harder to be an inside player only now and I've seen nothing to suggest he can play another role.

Agree I'm not a big fan. Don't agree at all with KM saying his acceleration is a strength- it was well below average in his testing, especially over the first 5-10metres!! (acceleration). Kicking is poor, contested work is good- but Pies don't take a tall or Rotham there is very surprising.
 
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I struggle with Drew, and wouldn't take him in within the first three rounds. I feel like he's good at what he does, but doesn't have the versatility or edge to his game. It's getting harder to be an inside player only now and I've seen nothing to suggest he can play another role.

I am probably more of that view. I think he is a bit one trick. Was ok as a defender in the All Stars game
Pick 36 - North Melbourne - BID - Isaac Cumming (NSW/ACT) Snoop Dog

Damaging player who has come in leaps and bounds. Will wait for confirmation if matched bid or not before picking someone else.

Out of office. Need to check pics be back by 11 with answer.
 
Hayward and Battle is that right? would be happy here with dickson and crameri closing in on 30
Morris, Murphy and Boyd closing in on 35 with Adams likely out the door and Suckling approaching 30 too, though...

I dunno. Think it's an interesting discussion. My concern with taking two forwards is that our next pick is so far back but there are still some pretty significant holes that haven't been touched. Collins, Cordy, Williams, Johannisen, Biggs and R. Smith has the makings of a solid group but four of the six are largely unproven and we have little stock behind them - if one doesn't make it, we're short. Meanwhile, Dickson and Crameri are nearing the end but we have a bit more depth and competition for those forward slots.

With that said, on limited viewing I like both Battle and Hayward so wouldn't complain too much if it worked out that way. I do think it makes our situation in the back half quite dire, though, and in an ideal world perhaps we better balance needs across the two picks (without reaching). Ryan first and Battle second, or Hayward first and Rotham second, for example, would probably be my preferred options - but I haven't followed the draft very closely this year.
 
GWS from all reports are only picking three players at the draft, I still struggle to see them picking up Mutch.

Can't see how that works. GWS have 32 players on their list for next year. By AFL rules they have to fill at least six slots, so unless those reports are suggesting they're going to take three DFAs (they've already confirmed they're not upgrading any rookies) those "all reports" are definitely incorrect.
 
Targeting academy clubs has to be done strategically. It makes no sense to target academy clubs just to "make them pay". You have to look at how many list spots academy clubs expect to fill at the draft, where their draft picks fall and where their academy kids are rated. Next season will see a change in draft strategy for Academy clubs with the new rules coming in.

The rules are already in place, if you're referring to only having access to the same number of picks as list spots. It's just that the club with multiple academy players has plenty of list spots, the club with a couple of academy players has indicated its strategy already (match Bowes with a top 10 pick, go into deficit for Scheer), and the other two teams don't have any top academy players to bank picks for.
 
Can't see how that works. GWS have 32 players on their list for next year. By AFL rules they have to fill at least six slots, so unless those reports are suggesting they're going to take three DFAs (they've already confirmed they're not upgrading any rookies) those "all reports" are definitely incorrect.

My mistake, I included rookie listed players as well it seems.
 
Ok Snoop Dog umm I guess it will be Daicos and Fisher then?

I'd be certain Pies will match at this pick, but fair enough.

Ok bud but in future lets deal with the first nomination first and move on once thats completed. I know its hard when you have two picks and takes more time but we knew that coming in so dont feel time pressured. I will assume now that Knightmare did not match the bid so you are now accepted and that your 2nd selection is Fischer and you therefore withdraw your bid for Cumming.
 
Can't see how that works. GWS have 32 players on their list for next year. By AFL rules they have to fill at least six slots, so unless those reports are suggesting they're going to take three DFAs (they've already confirmed they're not upgrading any rookies) those "all reports" are definitely incorrect.

LemmingMaster

yep thats correct. Chance they will take the 40 as well given the space cleared and the cost the vacancies will take up.

Also think its highly likely most / all those spots will be Academy kids. I think some will depend on 'sliders' and kids they are more interested in giving rookie spots to. They have so many picks around 50-60 mark and will get a lot of 'residual selections' that they have great flexibility. Cameron has done a very good job.
 

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