BigFooty's Official Ladder Predictor for 2007

[Kochie 16]

1.Fremantle
2.West Coast
3.Brisbane(on present form, injury free?)
4.Pt Adelaide
5.Adelaide
6.St Kilda
7.Western Bulldogs
8.Sydney
9.Carlton
10.Geelong
11.Hawthorn
12.Kangaroos
13.Melbourne
15.Collingwood
16.Richmond

 

[macca23]

1. West Coast
2. Melbourne
3. Fremantle
4. Geelong
5. St.Kilda
6. Sydney
7. Bulldogs
8. Richmond

9. Adelaide
10. Hawthorn
11. Collingwood
12. Essendon
13. Kangaroos
14. Brisbane
15. Port Adelaide
16. Carlton


so it shall be

Why does this look a little odd??

 

[- PC -]

Why does this look a little odd??

He doesnt have Richmond in 9th spot?

 

[Drummond]

1. West Coast
2. Fremantle
3. Sydney
4. Adelaide
5. Melbourne
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Geelong
8. St Kilda

9. Richmond
10. Hawthorn
11. Brisbane
12. Port Adelaide
13. Collingwood
14. Essendon
15. Kangaroos
16. Carlton

 

[GoDons]

1.Fremantle
2.West Coast
3.Brisbane(on present form, injury free?)
4.Pt Adelaide
5.Adelaide
6.St Kilda
7.Western Bulldogs
8.Sydney
9.Carlton
10.Geelong
11.Hawthorn
12.Kangaroos
13.Melbourne
15.Collingwood
16.Richmond

Interesting prediction for Essendon, 14th spot's interesting as well.

As for Brisbane finishing 3rd, feel free to dream but don't dream quite so far fetched. I could understand you putting Brisbane in the 8 because I think every supporter should have optimism for the team but 3rd, it's a little over the top.

 

[CoNaZ33]

Pies will finish bottom 4 as much as it hurts me to say

 

[Dan26]

Why do people STILL continually ignore the stat that shows that for the last 13 years at least one team from outside the top 8 has made the top FOUR the next year for every single season.

That means one of these teams will make the top four.

Geelong
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Brisbane
Carlton
Essendon
Kangaroos
Hawthorn

I reckon the easiest and most sensibe prediction is for West Coast to slide to the bottom half of the top 8 (around 6th, or so)

 

[Exe Gesis]

Why do people STILL continually ignore the stat that shows that for the last 13 years at least one team from outside the top 8 has made the top FOUR the next year for every single season.

That means one of these teams will make the top four.

Geelong
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Brisbane
Carlton
Essendon
Kangaroos
Hawthorn

I reckon the easiest and most sensibe prediction is for West Coast to slide to the bottom half of the top 8 (around 6th, or so)

Geelong and Port are most likely. IMO, it will be Geelong making the top 4, but Port also to slip into the 8. There's more than just one team outside the 8 making the 4 every year. There's also a team or two outside the 8 that makes the 8 overall. I expect some teams to slide then to make way for up-comers like Carlton, Port, Geelong or Brisbane.

Collingwood, St Kilda are more likely to slide. Perhaps Adelaide, Sydney and even West Coast. Maybe even Fremantle too. Either of those seem capable to slide. But what's more likely is that Cwood, StKilda and Sydney (?) to make way for Geelong, Port, Richmond .... IMO.

 

[Dan26]

Geelong and Port are most likely. IMO, it will be Geelong making the top 4, but Port also to slip into the 8. There's more than just one team outside the 8 making the 4 every year. There's also a team or two outside the 8 that makes the 8 overall. I expect some teams to slide then to make way for up-comers like Carlton, Port, Geelong or Brisbane.

Collingwood, St Kilda are more likely to slide. Perhaps Adelaide, Sydney and even West Coast. Maybe even Fremantle too. Either of those seem capable to slide. But what's more likely is that Cwood, StKilda and Sydney (?) to make way for Geelong, Port, Richmond .... IMO.

I reckon Geelong will slide? Why do i think this?

Because if Geelong were any good, they would have been better in 2006. Were they foxing us for 22 weeks?

Look at Hawthorn in 2001-2002-2003-2004 as an example.

In 2001 the Hawks nearly made the GF despite not being a great side (like Geelong in '04). They thought they were better than they were and when they went 11-11 in 2002 and 12-10 in '03 they thought it was an anomalie. "It's allright, It was just a flukey average couple of years. We'll bounce back in '04 and be a flag contender again, you just watch"

End result: Hawthorn 4-18 in '04

Geelong went 10-11-1 last year and 12-10 in '05. If they were good enough they would have done better and what evidence is there that they are ready to make a top 4 surge? It's time for a slide.

Geelong, I think is an outside contender for the wooden spoon, just you watch. It pains me because I love the Cats, but the signs are there. I think that "they" think they are pretty good. They're not.

 

[Exe Gesis]

I reckon Geelong will slide? Why do i think this?

Because if Geelong were any good, they would have been better in 2006. Were they foxing us for 22 weeks?

Look at Hawthorn in 2001-2002-2003-2004 as an example.

In 2001 the Hawks nearly made the GF despite not being a great side (like Geelong in '04). They thought they were better than they were and when they went 11-11 in 2002 and 12-10 in '03 they thought it was an anomalie. "It's allright, It was just a flukey average couple of years. We'll bounce back in '04 and be a flag contender again, you just watch"

End result: Hawthorn 4-18 in '04

Geelong went 10-11-1 last year and 12-10 in '05. If they were good enough they would have done better and what evidence is there that they are ready to make a top 4 surge? It's time for a slide.

Geelong, I think is an outside contender for the wooden spoon, just you watch. It pains me because I love the Cats, but the signs are there. I think that "they" think they are pretty good. They're not.

Well you can definitely draw that predicted conclusion as well. We wont get an idea till things get underway, but would you agree it's either all or nothing for the Cats? Either they make the top 4 or drop right down to the cellar? I can't see the Cats being middle of the road again, like a #9-#11 side.

 

[Dan26]

Well you can definitely draw that predicted conclusion as well. We wont get an idea till things get underway, but would you agree it's either all or nothing for the Cats? Either they make the top 4 or drop right down to the cellar? I can't see the Cats being middle of the road again, like a #9-#11 side.

Yeah good point I think they will go one way or the other.

Do you honestly think they have top-4 talent though? I don't. The criticism of the Cats is that they have had no real stars. They've been an even team. If you're a team without stars and you are hanging around in 10th spot, looking to go either up or down ..... then I think down is more likely.

We shall see.

 

[Major Colvin]

1.Fremantle
2.West Coast
3.Brisbane(on present form, injury free?)
4.Pt Adelaide
5.Adelaide
6.St Kilda
7.Western Bulldogs
8.Sydney
9.Carlton
10.Geelong
11.Hawthorn
12.Kangaroos
13.Melbourne
15.Collingwood
16.Richmond

I know this is only your opinion, but you need to have some idea before you express an opinion. Brisbane 3rd?? On current form?? (you must be talking about the NAB cup = Carlton NAB cup premiers in 2005 )

Cartlon a spot behind Sydney and above Melbourne, Geelong and Collingwood!??? Essendon will cease to exist at season's end. Give another go I think.

 

[Scotland]

Why do people STILL continually ignore the stat that shows that for the last 13 years at least one team from outside the top 8 has made the top FOUR the next year for every single season.

That means one of these teams will make the top four.

Geelong
Port Adelaide
Richmond
Brisbane
Carlton
Essendon
Kangaroos
Hawthorn

I reckon the easiest and most sensibe prediction is for West Coast to slide to the bottom half of the top 8 (around 6th, or so)

Obviously.

Reigning Minor Premier and Grand Final winner West Coast are much less likely to finish in the top 4 in 2007 than a side which failed to play finals football at all in 2006. What with their aging list, the host of players that have left the club and all the serious injuries they've had in the pre-season..... I guess if a coincidental statistic says it's going to happen that's good enough for some.

 

[Exe Gesis]

Yeah good point I think they will go one way or the other.

Do you honestly think they have top-4 talent though? I don't. The criticism of the Cats is that they have had no real stars. They've been an even team. If you're a team without stars and you are hanging around in 10th spot, looking to go either up or down ..... then I think down is more likely.

We shall see.

I may be wrong, but I think they have the capability to go top 4 very easily. They were unlucky in 2005. They showed then they can do it. 2006 was a collapse probably like you said - expecting/believing they're that good and just losing grip. They have the list tho IMO. I'm not really sure why they've squandered that potential. Perhaps just like St Kilda. Both amassing draft picks but due to being failure-orientated teams there's just something off inside the club. It could be just the coach. I'm not a fan of Bomber Thompson.

I guess if St Kilda squanders their list/chances, then Geelong probably does too.

2007 well might be a horrible year for them. Interesting. I'll definitely be keeping an eye out on some Geelong games to see if there's a worm in their apple as you predict.

 

[Dan26]

Obviously.

Reigning Minor Premier and Grand Final winner West Coast are much less likely to finish in the top 4 in 2007 than a side which failed to play finals football at all in 2006. What with their aging list, the host of players that have left the club and all the serious injuries they've had in the pre-season..... I guess if a coincidental statistic says it's going to happen that's good enough for some.

You are assuming West Coast is a lot better than everyone else, when in reality it dones't take much (mayge a drop of 5-10%) to fall away.

It happened to a far better Eagles team than your current one in 1992-1993 when you slumped to 6th. It happened in 1995 when you slumped out of the top 4 after a flag the year before, while Richmond that year (who missed the finals in your flag year) finished above you.

North finished 12th in '92 and they finished above you in '93 when you slumped.

That doesn't mean it's going to happen of course, but there will always be an improver ready to leapfrog. There are 8 teams outside the 8 looking to jump and any one of them could do it. if one team doesn't, it's likely someone else will. West Coast are only one team, so it only takes one stuff up to slump, while any one of 8 teams could jump. Those are good odds.

Remember they were a driven team last year, the Eagles. Driven and goal oriented after '05.. They were drivin to win the flag and still fell over the line in about 6 games and has the unimpressive percentage for a flag side of 120.44%.

They cannot be as driven as they were last year. They will also be the hunted. I think it is more likely than not, that they will fall out of the top 4.

Premiership sides are not guaranteed to make the top 4 the next year and history is littered with examples. Port, most recently. West Coast twice in '93 and '95. Essendon in '94, Adelaide in '99, Carlton in '96, Kangaroos in '97. It's not like West Coast was one of the most dominant flag sides ever or anything.

I can see them finishing 5th-8th very easily.

 

[Exe Gesis]

You are assuming West Coast is a lot better than everyone else, when in reality it dones't take much (mayge a drop of 5-10%) to fall away.

It happened to a far better Eagles team than your current one in 1992-1993 when you slumped to 6th. It happened in 1995 when you slumped out of the top 4 after a flag the year before, while Richmond that year (who missed the finals in your flag year) finished above you.

North finished 12th in '92 and they finished above you in '93 when you slumped.

That doesn't mean it's going to happen of course, but there will always be an improver ready to leapfrog. There are 8 teams outside the 8 looking to jump and any one of them could do it. if one team doesn't, it's likely someone else will. West Coast are only one team, so it only takes one stuff up to slump, while any one of 8 teams could jump. Those are good odds.

Remember they were a driven team last year, the Eagles. Driven and goal oriented after '05.. They were drivin to win the flag and still fell over the line in about 6 games and has the unimpressive percentage for a flag side of 120.44%.

They cannot be as driven as they were last year. They will also be the hunted. I think it is more likely than not, that they will fall out of the top 4.

Premiership sides are not guaranteed to make the top 4 the next year and history is littered with examples. Port, most recently. West Coast twice in '93 and '95. Essendon in '94, Adelaide in '99, Carlton in '96, Kangaroos in '97. It's not like West Coast was one of the most dominant flag sides ever or anything.

I can see them finishing 5th-8th very easily.

All credit to the West Coast for being a great team last two years. There's every chance they'll continue that. But it does seem that a lot of Wce fans are too c'ock-sure complacent. Just automatically assuming they're still the class team above everyone else. They were in 2005/2006 (even if they lost the flag that year), but 2007 is a new year and if one thing in life is certain is that things do change.

Two or three years seems about the more likely window of a team being right up there. Usually they start making a slide around then. Not always of course, but on average 3 years would be about the time there's a little slide or the last of their run. Brisbane an exception to the rule, but most teams otherwise that I can think of have slipped around the 3rd year. A slip could mean from 2nd to 6th. Where the next year is a further little slip, or, at times a collapse. But the rise back shouldn't ever be too long for the interstate teams in particular.

I think we'll continue seeing the 6 interstaters being dominant like this...2 or 3 years in the top 4, a year they slide to 6-8, a year or two out of the eight, and then a gradual rise over 2-3 years back into the top 8.

 

[goDees22]

Why does this look a little odd??

ladders not gonna stay the same as last year, adelaide are my tip to fall, they're pretty old

 

[Scotland]

Adelaide?
Sydney?
Fremantle?

West Coast aren't guaranteed anything in 2007 based on 2006 success, but, there are 3 other sides who could just as easily slide out of the top 4, provided someone has to. Sydney have been up and around the top 4 longer, and have an older list. Adelaide have an older list, and won't have Clarke, Hart or Biglands to pick from in 2007. Fremantle are well, Fremantle, anything is possible.

You might easily see us finishing 5th-8th (we may), but I cannot see a side from the 2006 bottom 8 being good enough in 2007 to displace West Coast (on 2006 form, without improvement) from the top 4.

 

[Scotland]

All credit to the West Coast for being a great team last two years. There's every chance they'll continue that. But it does seem that a lot of Wce fans are too c'ock-sure complacent. Just automatically assuming they're still the class team above everyone else. They were in 2005/2006 (even if they lost the flag that year), but 2007 is a new year and if one thing in life is certain is that things do change.

I'm not assuming any guarantees. We are the reigning Minor Premier and Grand Final winner. Very little has changed from 2006 to 2007 at West Coast. The only player lost from the GF side is Banfield, and his replacement is better. The bulk of the side is made up of players in their mid 20's, with only one player 30 or over. On paper, we haven't got any worse. Judging the improvement left in our side relative to others is all a matter of opinion.

Two or three years seems about the more likely window of a team being right up there. Usually they start making a slide around then. Not always of course, but on average 3 years would be about the time there's a little slide or the last of their run. Brisbane an exception to the rule, but most teams otherwise that I can think of have slipped around the 3rd year. A slip could mean from 2nd to 6th. Where the next year is a further little slip, or, at times a collapse. But the rise back shouldn't ever be too long for the interstate teams in particular.

Port finished top 4 2001-2004, then slid.
Brisbane finished top 4 1999 and 2001-2004, then slid.
Essendon finished top 4 1999-2001, then slid.

West Coast finished top 4 2005 and 2006. While it is possible that we will slide in 2007, a more sensible approach would be to look at the circumstances that caused the above sides to slide down the ladder, rather than simply saying 'well it happened to them after 'x' years, it will happen to West Coast the same way'.

West Coast don't have salary cap pressure forcing players to be traded, nor do we have a squad with many players 30 or over, nor have we had any retirements to key players in the off-season. These things affected the above three sides and in time will affect West Coast. The only things that will make us slide dramatically in 2007 will be injuries, dropping our bundle a la Geelong 2006, or improvement of the sides below us.

 

[Exe Gesis]

I'm not assuming any guarantees. We are the reigning Minor Premier and Grand Final winner. Very little has changed from 2006 to 2007 at West Coast. The only player lost from the GF side is Banfield, and his replacement is better. The bulk of the side is made up of players in their mid 20's, with only one player 30 or over. On paper, we haven't got any worse. Judging the improvement left in our side relative to others is all a matter of opinion.

Sorry, I didn't mean you necessarily. As long as your team has the attitude you have here, then they'll remain on top more than they'd slide. It's all attitude IMO.

Port finished top 4 2001-2004, then slid.
Brisbane finished top 4 1999 and 2001-2004, then slid.
Essendon finished top 4 1999-2001, then slid.

West Coast finished top 4 2005 and 2006. While it is possible that we will slide in 2007, a more sensible approach would be to look at the circumstances that caused the above sides to slide down the ladder, rather than simply saying 'well it happened to them after 'x' years, it will happen to West Coast the same way'.

West Coast don't have salary cap pressure forcing players to be traded, nor do we have a squad with many players 30 or over, nor have we had any retirements to key players in the off-season. These things affected the above three sides and in time will affect West Coast. The only things that will make us slide dramatically in 2007 will be injuries, dropping our bundle a la Geelong 2006, or improvement of the sides below us.

That's the unknown I guess, injuries, or perhaps off-field drama of some sort. But otherwise, the Eagles will keep the 3 year average up I think.

 

[Scotland]

That's the unknown I guess, injuries, or perhaps off-field drama of some sort.

An off-field drama big enough to derail West Coast's on-field aspirations. That is something i DON'T want to see.

 

[Exe Gesis]

An off-field drama big enough to derail West Coast's on-field aspirations. That is something i DON'T want to see.

These off-field dramas big enough to derail teams...there's always one or two (or more) floating around the league. Probably what hurt Geelong last year. Brisbane. Carlton. All different types. The Eagles seem to get into their share of strife too, just to make matters a bit hairier.

 

[HAZY]

1. Fremantle
2. West Coast
3. Adelaide
4. Sydney
5. Richmond
6. Western Bulldogs
7. Melbourne
8. Port Adelaide

9. St.Kilda
10. Collingwood
11. Brisbane
12. Geelong
13. Kangas
14. Hawks
15. Essendon
16. Carlton

Wow!!!

I hope your right but the Eagles finish about 5th

 

[shkinnyshkip]

Fremantle
West Coast
Sydney
St Kilda
Western Bulldogs
Melbourne
Adelaide
Geelong
Essendon
Richmond
Hawthorn
Port Adelaide
Collingwood
Brisbane
Carlton
Kangaroos

 

[Kochie 16]

You're all wrong. Brisbane in the 8 easily if injury free.