Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[Arr0w]

Not sure pick 3 would still be available now, given we only have 12 and 14

Reportedly they knocked back 2 x 1sts and a F2, why would they take less now

 

[harmesy37]

Not sure pick 3 would still be available now, given we only have 12 and 14

Reportedly they knocked back 2 x 1sts and a F2, why would they take less now

In a better draft may have better currency giving them a pick into the 1st round of the draft and trading for baker

 

[Tjblues]

Not that stats show a complete picture, but do those O’Sullivan numbers look light on for a full time mid ?


excuse the ignorance if that is not his position.

Happy to be corrected by those who know more but my understanding is he had a broken thumb/hand early in the year and it set him back badly.

Was a favourite for #1 before the season having made the u18 AA as a 17 y/o and won the u16 medal for player of the carnival.

Not a massive accumulator but has impact, in his vfl game for Richmond he had 12 touches but 6 were score involvements and he kicked 2

 

[Ezayyak]

This isn't the best example, as nothing happened after he said this.

 

[SirSanchez]

Question. Could we be making a play for pick 3 using current picks 12&14 just to trade it (pick 3) back out with some additional later picks to get our way back in for 2 picks in the top 10?

Have a sneaky suspicion this might be the case. But I could be 100% wrong! Ha!

 

[RPCB]

Paddy Dow was a #3 pick.

Spread your risk....

That's why one of 12 or 14 should be used on Houston....

Preferably Pick 12…. for the reason that we once drafted Kane Lucas with Pick 12.

If you look hard enough, you will find more busts at the majority of first round selections than AA calibre players.

 

[TENACIOUS]

Denver Granger-Barras, is an interesting rumour.. As far as I can see the knock on him isn’t his ability, it’s he doesn’t have an AFL level tank…

Fitness isn’t my forte, is an AFL level tank something you can build?

 

[ctwenty1]

For those saying Pick 3s aren’t guaranteed to be great players that’s true - but still more likely than Picks 10 and 12 combined.

Dow was Pick 3 but a) a majority of other clubs would likely have taken LDU or Cerra at 3 and both ended up better and b) it wasn’t a great draft class and that makes a big difference. The great draft classes have had players like Judd, Dusty Martin, Sheezel etc

Also picks 12 and 14 that season were Darcy Fogarty and Matthew Ling. Fogarty is a decent player having played 102 games in 7 seasons and Ling played 4 before being delisted.

Out of the 19 kids picked in the first round from 2017 only one has become an All Australian across their first 7 seasons (Brayshaw who was pick 2). There are two All Australians from the second round that year - so double the first round count.




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which is why you hope teh recruiting department and scouts have dome all the work they need to assess best available talent against our needs

 

[Arr0w]

In a better draft may have better currency giving them a pick into the 1st round of the draft and trading for baker

Yeah, Baker crossed my mind, moreso for us given he was a consideration a couple of years ago, but probably not now

I'd say WC would want more than 12 and 14 for pick 3

If I was the Eagles, I'd consider trading with the Saints

 

[Benaly28]

I was really impressed with Austin’s deals yesterday, I’d still like him to split 12 with Richmond or Sydney to target Houston but assuming he sticks to his guns and we go to the draft.

Why stop at picks 12,14 and the twins?

If the draft is as good as people say, go harder, still trade with Richmond or Sydney.’

Take something like 14, 19, 21 and the twins.

Who said he’s gonna stop?


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[myblueroan]

Denver Granger-Barras, is an interesting rumour.. As far as I can see the knock on him isn’t his ability, it’s he doesn’t have an AFL level tank…

Fitness isn’t my forte, is an AFL level tank something you can build?

Don't get rid of hacks only to bring in fresh ones.
It's up there with the no dickhead policy.
We are trying for a flag aren't we?
Premium ready made and premium draft.
We already got Haynes.
We are probably having to keep Lewis Young. We still have injury prone players on the list. Williams thep most pertinent. But some of our mids and Guv too. And Saad.
If this pretend Barrass hasn't got the tank then move on.

( I'm kind of enjoying going against the crowd again.)

 

[Bletch]

I was really impressed with Austin’s deals yesterday, I’d still like him to split 12 with Richmond or Sydney to target Houston but assuming he sticks to his guns and we go to the draft.

Why stop at picks 12,14 and the twins?

If the draft is as good as people say, go harder, still trade with Richmond or Sydney.’

Take something like 14, 19, 21 and the twins.

As it stands, we've got to create 3 extra places on the senior list. Add another pick, and that's 4. Likely depends on trading out contracted players.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

You’re ignoring the risk of the contract.
Houston will be on 800k plus, for at least 5, probably 6 years. That’s a limiting factor for our list management.

Picks 12 and 14 will be on 130-140k each for the next 3 years.
If either is on 800k in 2028 then something has gone very very right.

Not ignoring that at all. What are you basing that presumption on exactly?

We will lose - Martin, Marchbank, Cuningham, likely one (or both) of Owies or Kennedy - and S. Durdin if we keep Young.

AND



So, no. No ignorance!

50/50 whether a draftee at 12 or 14 makes it....

Houston will be a fine player, 100% guaranteed.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

Preferably Pick 12…. for the reason that we once drafted Kane Lucas with Pick 12.

If you look hard enough, you will find more busts at the majority of first round selections than AA calibre players.

yep.

National Draft Pick #12 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

So Austin is to be denied a premium pick because Silvagni stuffed one up 10 years ago.
Think about Dustin Martin as a pick 3 and back Austin in …

He won't push to turn 12 and 14 into 3 or the like... doesn't make sense.

But, not just SOS:

National Draft Pick #3 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[Bletch]

From what I've heard, the media is omitting parts of the pies offers. Noble + F1 + F2 for 13 and 23 (23 could become 24 or 32 depending on the Rioli trade). The 13 + 23* pick + Richards for Houston and future change.

Let’s not forget what 43 said the other day - Collingwood in fact do have the best offer on the table to both the Suns and Port. So I wouldn’t get our hopes too much on Houston.

The issue with this for Collingwood is that they can't make this trade without securing another F2 (can't trade out F1 and F2). Same way we had to secure Brisbane's F2 before we made the trade with Hawthorn. But Pies don't have the draft capital to get another F2.

They could go with:
F1 + 36 + Noble for 13 and 23. But I don't think this is better than any of the other deals on offer, and I don't think GC want/need 36.

So it would probably need trading out a player to get a F2.

 

[WalshYouLegend]

Paddy Dow was a #3 pick.

Spread your risk....

That's why one of 12 or 14 should be used on Houston....

Sure but Port aren’t satisfied with just 12 and don’t want our available players. So what else goes with pick 12?

 

[RoyalBlues]

Denver Granger-Barras, is an interesting rumour.. As far as I can see the knock on him isn’t his ability, it’s he doesn’t have an AFL level tank…

Fitness isn’t my forte, is an AFL level tank something you can build?

It looks like you can:

 

[TENACIOUS]

( I'm kind of enjoying going against the crowd again. Reminds me of fun times with Thy)

That’s a good trade strategy…

 

[Stamos]

Not ignoring that at all. What are you basing that presumption on exactly?

We will lose - Martin, Marchbank, Cuningham, likely one (or both) of Owies or Kennedy - and S. Durdin if we keep Young.

AND

View attachment 2139001

So, no. No ignorance!

50/50 whether a draftee at 12 or 14 makes it....

Houston will be a fine player, 100% guaranteed.

Just because the cap is going up doesn’t mean there isn’t a bigger risk taking on large, long contracts for older players than there is for shorter, much lower contracts.

 

[ferrisb]

Think about Dustin Martin as a pick 3 and back Austin in …

Dusty was arguably #1 on talent/potential, but...

1) Melbourne were poor drafters
2) There were concerns about his upbringing

Why Dusty 'slid' to #3.

This is based of recollection, not revisionist history.

I wouldn't be expecting a player as good as Dusty with pick 3 or Juddy (who possibly would have gone #1 except for shoulders).

Of course, anything is possible. Pick 3 could be the GOAT, but just looking at probabilities.

 

[Christou2Kouta]

Denver Granger-Barras, is an interesting rumour.. As far as I can see the knock on him isn’t his ability, it’s he doesn’t have an AFL level tank…

Fitness isn’t my forte, is an AFL level tank something you can build?

It is absolutely a quality that is trainable. You just need good continuity of training with a substantial volume of aerobic training (lower intensity steady state) for a few months to see significant improvements. The longer period you can go without disruption the more you can improve. That gets hard once the season starts and you’re dealing with corkies and rolled ankles etc so the off season is where you can make the greatest strides.

The hard part is there is a genetic component to this and if you’re up against the best who are also training hard and smart it’s unlikely you’re ever going to bridge the gap entirely. But at the very least you should be able to remove it from being a disqualifying factor for your selection.


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[GoBlues!]

If you want the best you gotta pay for it.
If pick 3 is running through the midfield on GF day next season with Cripps Walsh Cerra and TDK, I don’t think anyone will have any complaints …

It’s like putting all your chips on one number in roulette…high risk, high reward, low probability.

Prefer to split our chips and increase the chance of picking up a quality player in a deep draft.

 

[ferrisb]

Speaking of probabilities...

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

In last 20 years...

Pick 3-5 has a 1 in 3.3 chance of ending up All-Australian.

Picks 11-20 have a 1 in 5.8 chance.

 

[Bletch]

Speaking of probabilities...

AFL Draft Pick Value Comparison - All Time - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

In last 20 years...

Pick 3-5 has a 1 in 3.3 chance of ending up All-Australian.

Picks 11-20 have a 1 in 5.8 chance.

Neat.

Now need to mash this up with points per pick to give a "sweet spot" of value for points.