Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[NewDarkNavyBlues]

Fit right in

Bartel comes across a bit like an arrogant flog. So yes agreed.

 

[katmanblue]

So much froth and bother hard to care too much sitting on a beach in the Med.



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[katmanblue]

Don’t know. But he is.


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I can fix him/her/them.

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[Christou2Kouta]

Wright sounds right

They don’t call him Graham Wrong.


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[katmanblue]

Cos’ SOS is a bit of a ***t.

Spelled huge wrong

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[BrisbaneCFC]

Any chance KPD?

Not for me. 27, coming of an ACL, we've seen what he can do for near on a decade. He's not suddenly going to get better. Depth in the F50 for mine. There are players on our roster we just have to move past if it's going to get better for us.

 

[GoBlues!]

So much froth and bother hard to care too much sitting on a beach in the Med.

View attachment 2134592

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Those legs in need of a tan Katman, did you just arrive…

 

[HereComesJuddy]

They don’t call him Graham Wrong.


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Pretty sure that’s polite compared to what the Collingwood board will be calling him after it’s announced he is a Blue

 

[yibbida]

Don’t think that’s right, it was the Bulldogs who were the only team in that winwindow

Bulldogs didn't make the Grand Final.... (they were in there with Brisbane and Hawks at start of finals)

 

[Bfevola]

Why will they get pissed off with him? I mean i know Collingwood want everyone.

 

[lopezz]

I remember being a 12yr old kid at the end of 90. Carlton people had become angry at list changes because we should be in a window.

I used to sit in the Princess Park scoreboard with my uncle Ralph and i remember the final round loss to fitzroy at home that year. I clearly remember saying to him we are crap, he pointed his walking stick at me and said 'say that again and i'll castrate you on my walking stick.

He said 'We are Carlton, we make things happen'.

That off season, among others, we picked up Earl, Heaver, DeLulio, Hogg, Sholl, Woosha and some small slow bloke known as Diesel, because we knew we needed to bring in talent in key areas and a Diesel.

I know we can't live in the past and past rules, but whatever happened to "We are Carlton"? We seem to want to be kind. I want us to be as kind as hawks were to fev on 99 goals while 65 points up!

I just don't get why we can't nail the trade period or get a good draft hand. I feel we are giving the comp a leg up if we only go the way the ITK guys like EP, MS and Soap hear we will.

Not saying we have to get Houston, but we have a serious issue with our bottom 6 and our plan is to go to the draft?

 

[JustOneTime]

Our defence is suddenly terrible after conceding the 5th least points in 23' with the same personnel? The big drop-off in 2024 was defending stoppage - a lot of this is on the midfielders.

Not to my eye it isnt. The problem is more 33/33/33. 33% on the midfielders, 33% on the defensive transition plan that is terrible, and 33% on the Key position defenders. I'm open to swinging those 'made-up' percentages 5% either way lol.

The stats they based the KPDer on is completely flawed when assessing Carlton's key defenders.

A case in the point is the Carlton GWS game. The mids applied pressure in that game forcing GWS to put in high balls to Hogan. Hogan man handled Kemp. But the key thing that tricks everyone, Kemp fell over twice due to body on body contact. When he falls it is not recorded as losing one on one so the stat becomes useless and cant be trusted. This happened in a lot of games similar to the midfielders not tracking back. IMO, the impact is on about the same weighting as the midfielders getting caught out on defensive transition.

I see the media and posters continually look at the one on one def losses of our side and its the crappiest stat out there. Hogan pushed Kemp over on the goal line, then ran forward 15 metres and took a chest mark. That is a defensive one on one loss but it isnt registered

It leads to the important point that Kemp is out of his weight division.

I dont mind Kemp either as a 3rd/4th def tall or third fwd. This isnt a shot on him. It's a shot at the club for the stupid KPDer mismatch.

If it helps, i really agree Cerra/walsh and the transition style of the mids was off in the second half of the season having a high impact.

I'm only asking for one thing different to you. A second key def who can punch at the right weight division.

 

[Juddrockz]

After listening to Haynes’ interview I get the feeling he ain’t there to play seconds.Interesting to see how that back 6/7 is structured next year.


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I mentioned the same thing earlier today after hearing Haynes interview. Wondering how he fits in the team.

 

[Doro]

Wright would be a big positive with his list management experience. I'm not sure everyone at the club is on the same page in terms of needs. The scout network could probably be improved as well. Not sure how he'd go with the commercial / relationship building side of things though. Doesn't strike me as the most jovial chap.

 

[JustOneTime]

bit of a digression, but I thought Boyd had a shocking 2024.

A lucky to remain on the list shocking!

He needs a good 2025 i think or he is gone. I personally think in defence he is a tweener. Not quite a lockdown defender and not quite a rebounder.

I think going forward his best chance is as a rebounder to survive being cut.

One thing he and Mcgovern have in common is they stay away from contests in self preservation mode or in boyds case, a lack of defensive confidence. Both dont help out enough and leave their man.

 

[DangerousD]

Pies aren’t the Cats

What the team who’s played in 6 Grand finals in the last 24 years?

 

[Doro]

Not to my eye it isnt. The problem is more 33/33/33. 33% on the midfielders, 33% on the defensive transition plan that is terrible, and 33% on the Key position defenders. I'm open to swinging those 'made-up' percentages 5% either way lol.

The stats they based the KPDer on is completely flawed when assessing Carlton's key defenders.

A case in the point is the Carlton GWS game. The mids applied pressure in that game forcing GWS to put in high balls to Hogan. Hogan man handled Kemp. But the key thing that tricks everyone, Kemp fell over twice due to body on body contact. When he falls it is not recorded as losing one on one so the stat becomes useless and cant be trusted. This happened in a lot of games similar to the midfielders not tracking back. IMO, the impact is on about the same weighting as the midfielders getting caught out on defensive transition.

I see the media and posters continually look at the one on one def losses of our side and its the crappiest stat out there. Hogan pushed Kemp over on the goal line, then ran forward 15 metres and took a chest mark. That is a defensive one on one loss but it isnt registered

It leads to the important point that Kemp is out of his weight division.

I dont mind Kemp either as a 3rd/4th def tall or third fwd. This isnt a shot on hit. It's a shot at the club for the stupid KPDer mismatch.

If it helps, i really agree Cerra/walsh and the transition style of the mids was off in the second half of the season having a high impact.

I'm only asking for one thing different to you. A second key def who can punch at the right weight division.

Hogan manhandled a few defenders more than Kemp this year. Deserved his Coleman. I do agree about the limits to size of forwards he plays on though.

 

[carlton_99]

Not to my eye it isnt. The problem is more 33/33/33. 33% on the midfielders, 33% on the defensive transition plan that is terrible, and 33% on the Key position defenders. I'm open to swinging those 'made-up' percentages 5% either way lol.

I'm only asking for one thing different to you. A second key def who can punch at the right weight division.

If you look at scores against from turnover which is largely what we would consider to be "transition" we gave up the 5th least points from this source. Contrastingly, we gave up the third most from stoppage. It's obviously not all on the midfielders and the defenders are accountable as well but contested midfielders get attracted to the ball and if we don't win it at the source don't delay the ball going i50 in any way. Leaves our undersized defence exposed. A good second key defender to partner Weitering will be hard to find (if we don't trust Young) but if we can find one I'm all for it. However, if we stick with Weitering + two intercepting types the midfield must lift defensively and like you mentioned Cerra/Walsh are the keys to this as they spread really well from the contest

 

[DangerousD]

Austin could just offer our 1st and F2 and get Houston, we would then still have currency to trade back in to the 1st round of the draft and still be able to get an extra pick before a bid on Ben.

We still add highly rated kids in a deep draft, we still get our two father sons and we’d add a dual AA player who would make us better

 

[carlton_99]

Austin could just offer our 1st and F2 and get Houston, we would then still have currency to trade back in to the 1st round of the draft and still be able to get an extra pick before a bid on Ben.

We still add highly rated kids in a deep draft, we still get our two father sons and we’d add a dual AA player who would make us better

If our first priority is having at least one top pick in this year's draft we should be making sure we can get that second first round pick in before moving on our existing first round pick.

 

[JustOneTime]

I think you may have misunderstood my point. The point was not that Houston is a terrible defender, it was that a system has been put in place around him, which requires him to defend less. This was in response to a suggestion that trading for Houston would address our defensive shortcomings. He is an offensive force, not a Conor Idun or Isaac Quaynor.

I actually made the comparison with Boyd precisely because they were involved in a similar number of contests. The comparison was made to highlight the fact that we don't think of Boyd as a game changing defensive force, so why should we make the same conclusion about Houston.

Whilst I used a couple of statistics to reinforce my point, I made some allusion to the futility of doing so, when I said "Granted these stats are heavily influenced by defensive matchups". Perhaps, it was not clear or strong enough. Unfortunately, Champion Data does not make their more robust analyses available to the public, so you have to be careful when using the basic data at hand to support a claim. Hence why I framed it as a rhetorical question, rather than a definitive statement.

Just to quickly address some of the stats you brought up, I actually looked at both measures before my initial post. Pressure acts, even defensive half pressure acts are almost exclusively dominated by midfielders. I would wager that what it's actually measuring is how often a player is on the defensive side of the ball in a stoppage. Much of the same can be said about tackles. If we were to use either measure to predict the success of a defensive action, I'd imagine the validity would be quite low. In short, I think contested defensive one on ones are a more meaningful indicator of defensive prowess. Again just to reiterate, its not a linear relationship (ie. Boyd has a higher winrate than Cincotta), but it's a useful metric nonetheless.

That is so well written that I'm going to accept it. I did note your main point about moving the needle and adding another attacking player might not change our plight one bit (i feel that too). Carlton are so about getting next best shiny thing without a references to 'roles' and where best to spend the cash/picks.

It was just the stats and point you made felt light and worth a response.

Personally on Houston, i think there is value around the midfield. I think he could join the mid rotations and help the defensive transitions in terms of better running/speed. This might turn the needle as his speed is better than all of our mid at a guess. Did you notice they confused Elijah's good form out on the wing as a link player (early in the season) and then moved him inside and to the centre for spells where he is slow and gets upended in the tackle easily plus panicked disposal. I feel Houston could take those minutes and improve us immeasurably.

Now having said all that, i dont think we get him.

As to your point of moving the needle, i do think priority is a 2nd key defender at the right weight division with aggression. This would stop the calamity of young/Kemp rubbing off and bring some hardness/physicality.

 

[katmanblue]

What are we giving Essendon back?

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Let them keep Shiel

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[DangerousD]

Not sure why clubs (including ours) are so desperate to not upset others at trade time by over paying for players.

What’s Collingwood going to do if GC don’t trade them 13? Are they going to refuse to trade Nobel? Very doubtful.

So no idea why GC just don’t go out and take the best offer and then trade a 3rd for Nobel.

 

[RoyalBlues]

They don’t call him Graham Wrong.


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At Collingwood this year he was Graham Left - significantly

 

[DangerousD]

The unfortunate reality is Houston means way more to the Pies than he does to us.

He will be a game changer for them I’ve no doubt, but, we have more glaring issues that take priority first.

Also, as fate wills it, everything they needed to get him fell perfectly into place.

What makes him a game changer for them but not us?

I see them as being a lot better at transitioning from defence to attack than us, I see him being less of a need there than with us.

We have areas that need improving of course, but in relation to Collingwood, like us they don’t have a 2nd key defender, they don’t even have a key forward, but they’re still pushing to improve the team by adding Houston