Rumour Bluemour Discussion XXXVI - 'Loopy' Season in full swing

[BlueTongue]

Think it was more about operations, now wants to career into CEO material.

Wright CEO, Bartel Head of Footy?

 

[JustOneTime]

If you look at scores against from turnover which is largely what we would consider to be "transition" we gave up the 5th least points from this source. Contrastingly, we gave up the third most from stoppage. It's obviously not all on the midfielders and the defenders are accountable as well but contested midfielders get attracted to the ball and if we don't win it at the source don't delay the ball going i50 in any way. Leaves our undersized defence exposed. A good second key defender to partner Weitering will be hard to find (if we don't trust Young) but if we can find one I'm all for it. However, if we stick with Weitering + two intercepting types the midfield must lift defensively and like you mentioned Cerra/Walsh are the keys to this as they spread really well from the contest

I'm ok with that analysis too.

Just on the key defenders which i keep pushing as part of the problem to solve; in theory, the benefit of having the smaller bodied Kemp/Mcgovern partner Weitering as defenders is intercepting ability. What they give up in aggression, body size they should be giving us in intercept marks.

This is where it doesnt play out. They are very low by KPDer category for intercept marks. This is supposed to be their strength or key trait. They dont bring physicality, fear or aggression either. Mcgovern does bring metres gained and better kicking out of defence.

So adding a physical specimen will either allow Weitering to go crazy or might just help Mcgovern or Kemp as a third tall to intercept more. Currently Weitering is being dragged away leaving Kemp/Mcgovern to play body on body in the fwd 50 corridor and they cant do that great there.

 

[lukep_86]

Our defence is suddenly terrible after conceding the 5th least points in 23' with the same personnel? The big drop-off in 2024 was defending stoppage - a lot of this is on the midfielders.

I attended a lot of games live and think our defence was actually really good in most games this year, especially considering the amount of entries the opposition had.

I do think that there are several layers to our issues though:

First, when teams flood the backline, we bomb it long and it comes straight back out. This is amplified when we play teams with good leg speed, or when our pressure drops off, or both.

When we move the ball slowly, we are quite predictable, which results in a turnover. Again this is amplified when our pressure drops off.

We often kick left coming out of defence. Again, turnovers lead to the ball coming straight back in.

Hopefully with a better run of injuries, tweaks to the game plan and a recruit or 2, we see some massive improvements in these areas.

 

[Flaggers22]

That is so well written that I'm going to accept it. I did note your main point about moving the needle and adding another attacking player might not change our plight one bit (i feel that too). Carlton are so about getting next best shiny thing without a references to 'roles' and where best to spend the cash/picks.

It was just the stats and point you made felt light and worth a response.

Personally on Houston, i think there is value around the midfield. I think he could join the mid rotations and help the defensive transitions in terms of better running/speed. This might turn the needle as his speed is better than all of our mid at a guess. Did you notice they confused Elijah's good form out on the wing as a link player (early in the season) and then moved him inside and to the centre for spells where he is slow and gets upended in the tackle easily plus panicked disposal. I feel Houston could take those minutes and improve us immeasurably.

Now having said all that, i dont think we get him.

As to your point of moving the needle, i do think priority is a 2nd key defender at the right weight division with aggression. This would stop the calamity of young/Kemp rubbing off and bring some hardness/physicality.

Yeah, I agree that it was light, your reply compelled me to articulate myself better. In regards to him playing in the midfield, I personally haven't seen any of the Port games where he played midfield, so I don't think I can really comment. We're lacking quality ball users in the midfield, so he'd fit a need in that regard. I'd agree that he's probably quicker than most of our mids, but is he closer to the Cripps end of the pace spectrum or the Holmes end?

And yeah I agree with you about the key defender, it doesn't even need to be a star, we already have one down there, we just need a big body who is up to AFL standard.

 

[DangerousD]

The old we should trade like Geelong routine. Since they won the last of their dynasty flags in 2011 (with father sons like Hawkins, Ablett and Scarlett picked in the 40's under the old system) they have won one flag in 13 years .

Due to lifestyle they were able to trade in Dangerfield and Cameron who were known to be guns. We helped them out with Tuohey. In the last 10 years apart from those 3 they have traded in Mitchell Clark, Rhys Stanley, Lachie Henderson, Zac Smith, Aaron Black, Nathan Kruger, Gary Rohan, Jack Steven, Josh Jenkins, Jon Ceglar, Tanner Bruhn, Jack Bowes, Oliver Henry and traded back Gary Ablett.

There's a fair bit of dross in that lot. Can depend on what you paid for them of course but to suggest that they are trade masters would be over inflating the actuality.

This feels a little selective, granted they have won the 1 flag since 2011 but they also lost another and played in about 5 prelims.

That’s the best part of 14 years challenging, with two premierships in that time, a hell of a lot better than us.

The cause that list to the Tigers was a lot different to 2011 and their premiership in 2022 was a lot different to the team that lost against Richmond.

Lots of the names you mentioned aren’t great but were recruited to play a specific role, I’d say it would be easier as a young player coming in to a winning, positive environment where you weren’t thrown to the wolves and actually had time to develop your game.

Clubs like Geelong especially who have played in 10 Grand Finals in the last 35 years should be admired, that’s pretty damn impressive

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

I remember being a 12yr old kid at the end of 90. Carlton people had become angry at list changes because we should be in a window.

I used to sit in the Princess Park scoreboard with my uncle Ralph and i remember the final round loss to fitzroy at home that year. I clearly remember saying to him we are crap, he pointed his walking stick at me and said 'say that again and i'll castrate you on my walking stick.

He said 'We are Carlton, we make things happen'.

That off season, among others, we picked up Earl, Heaver, DeLulio, Hogg, Sholl, Woosha and some small slow bloke known as Diesel, because we knew we needed to bring in talent in key areas and a Diesel.

I know we can't live in the past and past rules, but whatever happened to "We are Carlton"? We seem to want to be kind. I want us to be as kind as hawks were to fev on 99 goals while 65 points up!

I just don't get why we can't nail the trade period or get a good draft hand. I feel we are giving the comp a leg up if we only go the way the ITK guys like EP, MS and Soap hear we will.

Not saying we have to get Houston, but we have a serious issue with our bottom 6 and our plan is to go to the draft?

The moral of the story is that Uncle Ralph was a deadset psycho.

 

[BlueTongue]

Looks like we’re rebuilding for another 10 years and going to let teams like the Pies, Cats, Lions, Hawks etc. top up their list to be stronger next year whilst we battle it out to finish 5-12th because we are worried about Tassie in two years

Hmm, I've been trying to convince myself that investing in the Draft is the a good way to go, but this ^ is pretty much what my gut, heart and nagging in the back of my mind has been telling me for weeks. Thanks for casting me back into the abyss of doubt

Normally I'm all for drafting the kids, and I know Austin & Cook are selling 'List Balance' but how long can Cripps, Weiters, Docherty, Newman, McGovern, Saad, Blacres and anyone else over 27, continue to hold the team together when the gap between them and the next group step up? (+ Walsh is already smashed to pieces).

I'm hoping we pull a rather substantial sized Rabbit out of a hat this week.

 

[HarryFlashman]

Just a quick reminder - we need to sign Weiters & TDK.
TDK keeps tracking the way he was there is going to be absolute monster dollars thrown at him.

Bring in 3-4 kids helps protect our cap for 2yrs + we have the big bodies now to protect them as they come on.

Why people don’t believe that they can have a massive positive effect next season is beyond me.

Injury & dog shit game style crippled us, we don’t need a “major” signing to improve drastically

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Looks like we’re rebuilding for another 10 years and going to let teams like the Pies, Cats, Lions, Hawks etc. top up their list to be stronger next year whilst we battle it out to finish 5-12th because we are worried about Tassie in two years

Rebuilding??? So we are trading off our stars are we???

Someone’s a bit short sighted

 

[Warsaw]

Did they think they were going to get Houston and keep a first round pick? Kinda seems like they thought they could get it all, and didn't account another team might sweep in?

Very cursory look at the draft names and the crop does look pretty good, but man I'd want to be absolutely sure you're taking a can't miss prospect if that's the way you're gonna go.

 

[DangerousD]

I’m ok if we hit the draft hard, as long as we bring in a few Acres, Newman, Hollands, Ginnivan, D”Ambrosio types as well.

We can replace the always injured with kids and be ok but if we lose Kennedy, Owies and Carrol, they need replacing.

 

[Skull Face]

Austin could just offer our 1st and F2 and get Houston, we would then still have currency to trade back in to the 1st round of the draft and still be able to get an extra pick before a bid on Ben.

We still add highly rated kids in a deep draft, we still get our two father sons and we’d add a dual AA player who would make us better

The only team who wants to offload picks this year are ones with academy and f/s selections around the pick and it will get wasted.

Brisbane Pick 20 (912)is gettable but they would need more points coming back in this draft which we dont have.

GC will offload 13 to the highest bidder, maybe 23/29 as well

Essendon is the only other team with a top 20 f/s or academy selection and they probably need more points to cover the bid so their only use would be offering them picks in this years draft to take their future picks to satisfy GC.

---------

Our ability to get back into the draft rests solely on kennedy/owies attracting enough attention to upgrade 34 or getting that pick 13 from GC otherwise its zilch.

 

[Red Bull]

Bring in 3-4 kids

Why people don’t believe that they can have a massive positive effect next season is beyond me.

 

[Garters]

Won’t be competing with Membrey anyway

Correct, however as a side would like to see him tried down back.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I’m ok if we hit the draft hard, as long as we bring in a few Acres, Newman, Hollands, Ginnivan, D”Ambrosio types as well.

We can replace the always injured with kids and be ok but if we lose Kennedy, Owies and Carrol, they need replacing.

A healthy list sees JSOS replace Kennedy as he was only going to be playing fwd in 2025. Moir/Durdin replace Owies and Lord/Binns/Wilson replaces Carroll.

I think we are opening up spots for some younger guys to grow into. We saw in the backend of this year some special moments from Moir, Lord and Binns and 2025 we will see plenty more from these guys.

I think the positions you’ve mentioned are fine

 

[The old campaigner]

I used to sit in the Princess Park scoreboard with my uncle Ralph and i remember the final round loss to fitzroy at home that year.

 

[Jacks Seething Rage]

Did they think they were going to get Houston and keep a first round pick? Kinda seems like they thought they could get it all, and didn't account another team might sweep in?

I don't think we would have had a long term contracted Houston onour radar until he expressed a desire to come home.

Would be a great addition, but not at any cost. Perfectly reasonable response by us.

 

[BlueTongue]

Pretty sure that’s polite compared to what the Collingwood board will be calling him after it’s announced he is a Blue

Has there been any whispers to confirm that this IS happening?

 

[KingCharles]

confident houston to us gets done.
Remember it’s a long trade period, if everything happens day 1 what would the media have to talk about..

 

[lopezz]

The moral of the story is that Uncle Ralph was a deadset psycho.

Hahaha, yes. But he ran the fastest scoreboard in the land for 50yrs

 

[Bfevola]

confident houston to us gets done.
Remember it’s a long trade period, if everything happens day 1 what would the media have to talk about..

Do you know or do you think KingCharles?

 

[KingCharles]

Do you know or do you think KingCharles?

Can’t say too much at this stage other than I’m quietly optimistic

 

[BlueTongue]

I don't think we would have had a long term contracted Houston onour radar until he expressed a desire to come home.

Would be a great addition, but not at any cost. Perfectly reasonable response by us.

My concern is that this kind of 'Gift' (a very good player who addresses one of our major weaknesses in disposal), not only wants to come to Vic but has a genuine interest (going as far as holding off on other clubs with I'm sure better offers) to land in our lap.

Port is asking too much (not way too much), but I think a deal could get done if we were interested enough.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Has there been any whispers to confirm that this IS happening?

There sure is. I’m hearing it’s as good as done

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

Where's the salary dump player??? I want my salary dump player!!!