Bluemour 'Silly Season' Edition XXXIV

[I bleed Blue]

To he honest it's in Dows best interest to try to reinvigorate his career somewhere else.

If he isn't really in our plans then we should accommodate it.

Good luck to the young man.

 

[HaydossJ]

Amazing it's, people stating we need to bring in a sports psychologist, yet we have one, like every club

There are different levels though - is the psychologist there on a FT basis? Part-time? Is there just one? Are evidence-based practices embedded within the wider football program?

As I stated, though, I'm sure the club is across it and I'm v confident in the current football program. It is okay to pose the question, however.

 

[ferrisb]

Yep the old trade a good player so that we can draft another and hope that in three years he might approach the level of the one that we traded argument.

A.k.a. a short cut to disaster list management wise. Cue Rocky and Bullwinkle on screen to say "that trick never works,".

This time for sure!!!

 

[Arr0w]

There are different levels though - is the psychologist there on a FT basis? Part-time? Is there just one? Are evidence-based practices embedded within the wider football program?

As I stated, though, I'm sure the club is across it and I'm v confident in the current football program. It is okay to pose the question, however.

Didn't seem like it was posed as a question

 

[Blue__Balls]

Wonder if that update from Austin indicates that we've had reasonable interest for Dow. If there wasn't a potential buyer or two lined up I don't think there'd be any need for the comment.

 

[carlton_99]

Wonder if that update from Austin indicates that we've had reasonable interest for Dow. If there wasn't a potential buyer or two lined up I don't think there'd be any need for the comment.

Wonder what we could get for him draft picks wise... Youd think a 3rd if we are lucky but maybe Austin can get creative

 

[The Blue Weirdo]

Good on him, Setters is also too good to be stuck in the VFL.
Set 'em free, they both deserve to play regular AFL.

 

[TENACIOUS]

You allude to a lack of balance in my post, yet you state only one side, of which you have no idea of a players/team mental capacity unless you are in the inner sanctum

TBF... You do the same thing...

 

[Arr0w]

TBF... You do the same thing...

Not sure why you are getting involved, unless of course you hold a similar of our mental fragility

Did you miss where I stated "a number of factors "?

 

[DangerousD]

That's why need to add some on field experience too imo... having someone out there who knows what its all about will def help.

Who do you want to target, in what position?

 

[DangerousD]

If Acres is worth a third, then I can’t see Dow being anything more than a late third early fourth.


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A few differences.

Dow is contracted, Dow hasn’t been massively low balled to force his hand and Dow is younger. Fremantles list position should be considered, it looks like they have a specific target in Jackson and have identified a few to help them get the currency.

Im still hopefull for a third for Dow

 

[HaydossJ]

I hope we keep Setters - bit worried about Hewett's back and Kennedy's foot

Happy for Paddy to explore his options, and maybe we can secure a future 3rd

Acres for Dow

 

[Blue__Balls]

Wonder what we could get for him draft picks wise... Youd think a 3rd if we are lucky but maybe Austin can get creative

I think North is the obvious candidate, with the loss of JHF they have a need for midfield talent, and with the bounty of picks they're gonna have they'll probably have a surplus of later picks to offload for anyone who will join them.

They've got Picks 1, 56, 67 and 74.

Good chance they add Picks 8 and potentially 27 from Port.

They also project to have the first pick in each round of the 2023 draft, as well as Port's first rounder next year (we'll call that Pick 10 for argument's sake).

On top of that, they have a future second and third round pick which must be traded this year for established players. I'm assuming those picks are either start of round, or tied to NM's ladder position (ie. only two or three picks into the round).

2022: 1, 8, 27, 56, 67, 74
2023: 1, 10, 19, 20*, 37, 38*, 55, 73
*Must be traded this year

There's plenty to work with there. Take the future third and we've basically done Dow for Acres and upgrading our third rounder ~12-14 spots - ie. Daylight robbery. Take their future fourth and we've done Dow for Acres and downgrading our third rounder ~4-6 spots - probably fair, but I'd want a bit more than fair.

The other option, of course, is to try and swindle Pick 8 for Dow and Pick 11 this year. Depending on who they like it might make Dow a free hit, but there's also the chance they're into the same sort of players we are at the draft and don't want to give us a chance to snake the player they'd want at 11 (ie. Busslinger).

I'd be pushing for the future third round priority pick they've been given, and sweeten it with a fourth round upgrade this year if we need to. Dow and 63 for the future third and 67.

 

[Boy with chook]

Re Dow, would an exchange between us and StK of our 10 and Dow for their 9 be acceptable?

 

[teagueyubeauty]

That tells me Paddy has a bite from another club


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[KohPhi]

Amazing it's, people stating we need to bring in a sports psychologist, yet we have one, like every club

But can ours run through the middle?
Surely this must be a prerequisite moving forward..

 

[KohPhi]

Im

I hope we keep Setters - bit worried about Hewett's back and Kennedy's foot

Happy for Paddy to explore his options, and maybe we can secure a future 3rd

Acres for Dow

Im thinking (hoping) if Dow goes, Setters stays.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Re Dow, would an exchange between us and StK of our 10 and Dow for their 9 be acceptable?

Probably pointless.

Say we want different players at 9 and 10. Moving up one spot doesn't change the player we get, so we're giving them Dow for free.

Say we both want the same player at 9 and 10. Moving down one spot denies them the player they want to draft, and I don't think Dow is tempting enough to warrant that.

 

[teagueyubeauty]

Good on him, Setters is also too good to be stuck in the VFL.
Set 'em free, they both deserve to play regular AFL.

Can’t let both go, that would be stupid list management


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[FRUMPY]

Wonder if that update from Austin indicates that we've had reasonable interest for Dow. If there wasn't a potential buyer or two lined up I don't think there'd be any need for the comment.

I presume Dow finally found a club who may be willing to give him an extra year and trade for him rather than a number of clubs looking at him. I think we will happily take what they offer

If it was a case of Dow or Setterfield staying on the list, im happy it isnt dow tbh.

 

[Blue__Balls]

TBF... You do the same thing...

Not sure why you are getting involved, unless of course you hold a similar of our mental fragility

Did you miss where I stated "a number of factors "?

Get a room.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

Hope this means we retain Setters. Feel as if it was one or the other.

Good luck to Paddy and I hope he finds a club that will allow him to play to his strengths. Think with the right role he can still become a damaging mid.

 

[JustaBattler]

AFL is a funny industry, long term contracts were the way to go for a few years, then it was back to 2-3 year contracts and now the last couple of years the long term contract is back in vogue.

Good for H and great for the club. Two of the better key fwds in the game of the game signed long term -

Actually I think we are seeing a spread of contract lengths depending on player.

The whole front and back loading of contracts has become much like managing a bond portfolio with different durations. The only problem with applying similar methodologies is that unlike a bond portfolio - there are liquidity constraints in managing a player list due to contracts making player movement sticky. I think minimum salary cap spend is particularly onerous and silly on Clubs who are in rebuilding mode - but at least front-ended payments offer a decent incentive for players to come to a rebuilding side if they are so inclined. Martin / McGovern are two examples that come to mind at Carlton - just bad luck both have had more than usual expected injuries negatively impacting on their ability to contribute.

Harry / Charlie / Cripps are like 10 yr bond bets players with a bit to prove but showing enough to warrant further time are like 1-2 year bonds whilst the rest become short term cash rate type bets. A decent but not match winning type role player is likely to be interested in maximising the length of their contract rather than short term cash - so the 3 year type deal Kennedy was put on fits for players like him.

So to your point, the lower risk expected higher return players get more time- which also provides them with a contractual in built call option on the rising player payment regime in place - offsetting any near term lower cost to help the Club type argument.

Hopefully that is how list managers are approaching the payments side of list management - not clear that all Clubs are as well managed as they could be as far as that stuff goes. Collingwood got themselves into quite a fix mismanaging duration.

 

[4flagsin5yrs]

That tells me Paddy has a bite from another club


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or it's the Club's nice way of saying Paddy is excess to current needs....

 

[Boy with chook]

Probably pointless.

Say we want different players at 9 and 10. Moving up one spot doesn't change the player we get, so we're giving them Dow for free.

Say we both want the same player at 9 and 10. Moving down one spot denies them the player they want to draft, and I don't think Dow is tempting enough to warrant that.

Good call.