Bluemour 'Silly Season' Edition XXXIV

[Stamos]

Would 10 and Setterfield get us pick 4? Would both clubs do it?

No.
We would, they wouldn't.

 

[macky99]

Lots still to play out. GWS would like to secure pick 1 from North, with North hoping to get pick 2 from west coast as part of the JHF trade.
My read on it is it will most likely be a move we look at on draft night assuming he's not taken in the first couple of picks.
If all goes to plan, Ashcroft (matched), Cadman and Wardlaw will be the first three, then we will dangle a carrot in an attempt to slot in.

The following is a hypothetical and not a rumour:
We trade (pick 10 + Setterfield + F1) for (pick 4 + F2.)
I would be happy with something like this.

We must rate Sheezel some way in front of other choices we may have at 10 to consider this move?

 

[crocodilian]

Lots still to play out. GWS would like to secure pick 1 from North, with North hoping to get pick 2 from west coast as part of the JHF trade.
My read on it is it will most likely be a move we look at on draft night assuming he's not taken in the first couple of picks.
If all goes to plan, Ashcroft (matched), Cadman and Wardlaw will be the first three, then we will dangle a carrot in an attempt to slot in.

The following is a hypothetical and not a rumour:
We trade (pick 10 + Setterfield + F1) for (pick 4 + F2.)
I would be happy with something like this.

That hypothetical could not happen on draft night. Can only trade picks not players

 

[gbatman]

No.
We would, they wouldn't.

I wonder how much they want Setterfield? He would be good for them, he gives them an inside midfielder who brings physicality and tackling pressure, he sort of came good for us the last few rounds so it counts for something. Reckon Bombers and Dodoro are under a lot of pressure to get results, fans are screaming out for an inside midfielder. They would not want to walk away with nothing.

On the flip side he has a fair bit of value to us for the reasons I have mentioned but not to the point where we would not let him go but only for our own advantage.

It's an interesting trade, the guy is not a star but he has value for both sides.

It begs the question, if the tables were turned, what would Essendon be demanding for a player who finished the season like Setterfield had?

 

[Stamos]

I can't see it happening.
Everything points to Sheezel going top 5 (including Ashcroft), so we'd be needing to move to the top 4 at least. And we can't be making a trade below the Top 3 prior to draft night to guarantee we would get our player.

I guess our best chance would be no trade of top picks and North take Cadman at 1?
If Eagles want to trade down #2, other clubs surely have better offers than what we can do.
Maybe Giants would be ok moving down #3 if Cadman is already gone, but given their hand it doesn't make sense.
And can you see Dodo moving back for a future pick that he quite possibly won't be around to take to the draft?

 

[Stamos]

I wonder how much they want Setterfield? He would be good for them, he gives them an inside midfielder who brings physicality and tackling pressure, he sort of came good for us the last few rounds so it counts for something. Reckon Bombers and Dodoro are under a lot of pressure to get results, fans are screaming out for an inside midfielder. They would not want to walk away with nothing.

On the flip side he has a fair bit of value to us for the reasons I have mentioned but not to the point where we would not let him go but only for our own advantage.

It's an interesting trade, the guy is not a star but he has value for both sides.

It begs the question, if the tables were turned, what would Essendon be demanding for a player who finished the season like Setterfield had?

He's out of contract, they've offered him more, they've got a low PSD pick.
We don't have much hand.
It's similar to Acres, F3 would be ok. More likely, it's a pick upgrade (#42).

 

[Wickzki]

if the tables were turned, what would Essendon be demanding for a player who finished the season like Setterfield had?

R1 pick and Tom De Koning

 

[thebluenewdeal]

It could work if it goes Ashcroft, cadman, wardlaw, tsatas to *, phillipou to crom. Then we dangle the carrot at the hawks for pick 6.

 

[CJMB]

R1 pick and Tom De Koning

That’d probably be after a week of discussions. Would start at R1 + Cripps + Walsh + Harry + Charlie + Weitering + hovercraft for Setters & a future 5th.

 

[Jorge]

It would destroy our trading options for next year. And we'd need to secure a future 2nd or 3rd first, as we can't currently trade our future 1st.

I don’t see how we can possibly have a big crack at trade or FA for the next 2 years anyway so I wouldn’t stress about next years capital

High level estimate we’d have 11 players taking up between 7-7.5m

So the other 34 players share about 5.5-6m in 2023. If you do the math, we can’t have much room.

McGoverns expiring contract will be offset by a new TDK deal - probably not entirely, but approx 2/3 of it I’d day.

Estimate:
Curnow 800
Saad 600
McGovern 600
McKay 800
Williams 750
Cerra 600
Weitering 750
Cripps 800
Docherty 500
Walsh 600
Martin 600

 

[macky99]

D

I don’t see how we can possibly have a big crack at trade or FA for the next 2 years anyway so I wouldn’t stress about next years capital

High level estimate we’d have 11 players taking up between 7-7.5m

So the other 34 players share about 5.5-6m in 2023. If you do the math, we can’t have much room.

McGoverns expiring contract will be offset by a new TDK deal - probably not entirely, but approx 2/3 of it I’d day.

Estimate:
Curnow 800
Saad 600
McGovern 600
McKay 800
Williams 750
Cerra 600
Weitering 750
Cripps 800
Docherty 500
Walsh 600
Martin 600

l doubt if McGovern & Martin would be anywhere near 600k?
Williams also probably front ended deal.

 

[Blues_1864]

I don’t really get the need, Shezeel isn’t at the top of any draft board I’ve seen, I’ve constantly read that after 5 the draft is very even and next years draft is strong.

So why would you trade out of next years 1st round to get a player ranked 2 or 3 in a draft year that’s supposedly weak?

Shezeel would not only need to be better than the player we would take at pick 10, he would also need to be better than the player we take next year at pick (hopefully 18)

In terms of probabilities, it doesn’t stack up to me

I think you have answered it yourself. This draft is seen as weak, and maybe the Club feels we need to be top 5, to avoid the lottery. Maybe we feel that #10 this year is not good value (relative to #10 most years).

Forty3's trade would leave us with a pair of F2's for next year... which might be where we want to be, if we are contemplating a father-son Camporeale or two. I think it gives us a bit of flexibility either way, because even if we don't want Camporeale(s), we can presumably sell the pair of F2's to someone else who needs points, and get back into next year's first round that way. EDIT: Camporeales are 2024, forget this!

And that's assuming we don't build any trade currency (for extra picks) of our own during the course of 2023. (This has been a major impediment to us doing much this year; Setterfield represents the sum total of outside interest in our non-marquee players).

I don't love Forty3's hypothetical; I would personally prefer to keep Setterfield, but it sounds like he is more than halfway out the door. If that's the case, I absolutely agree with rolling him into something that is going to materially help us.

 

[HereComesJuddy]

I want Sheezal, just for the name. Sounds like a fan fav already

For Sheezal my Neezal - I 100% agree

 

[Foucault1989]

R1 pick and Tom De Koning

Crazy stuff

 

[Red_man2008]

I think you have answered it yourself. This draft is seen as weak, and maybe the Club feels we need to be top 5, to avoid the lottery. Maybe we feel that #10 this year is not good value (relative to #10 most years).

Forty3's trade would leave us with a pair of F2's for next year... which might be where we want to be, if we are contemplating a father-son Camporeale or two. I think it gives us a bit of flexibility either way, because even if we don't want Camporeale(s), we can presumably sell the pair of F2's to someone else who needs points, and get back into next year's first round that way.

And that's assuming we don't build any trade currency (for extra picks) of our own during the course of 2023. (This has been a major impediment to us doing much this year; Setterfield represents the sum total of outside interest in our non-marquee players).

I don't love Forty3's hypothetical; I would personally prefer to keep Setterfield, but it sounds like he is more than halfway out the door. If that's the case, I absolutely agree with rolling him into something that is going to materially help us.

Camporeale are the following year.

 

[RPCB]

We are like a kid in a candy store on here. As soon as an ITK says we want to trade up for a particular draft prospect, we must have him at all costs

 

[La Dispute]

Essentially 3 first round picks for 1 first rounder and a future second?… seems overs to me .. Setterfield will walk into most sides.. to be honest I think we’re undervaluing him a bit … he’s more than a set of steak knives .. rated by many as a top 3 pick In his draft year and we played him out of position this year …is not a winger and he will be very handy for whoever gets him. Pick 10 and a future 1st should be enough to slide up a few places in the draft surely ?

Setterfield’s draft status is now redundant.

Maybe he was actually overrated in his draft year as clubs were scrambling to find the next Bontempelli and he seemed to fit the mould. He wasn’t a big possession winner.

He now has enough of a playing history for the club and any prospective suitors to understand his strengths and limitations as a player. Coaches are always grappling with balancing the needs of the side while developing individual players to their full potential. Maybe Setterfield has suffered from not playing his preferred position, but the reality is there a number of players on our list who play his choice role better than he does - which is why he was forced out onto a wing and flank for the most part when he was in the side.

He’s now 24, not a young player anymore, and not every opportunity-starved first round draft pick is going to have a Will Brodie type resurrection at another club.

 

[Ash24]

Curnow 800
Saad 600
McGovern 600
McKay 800
Williams 750
Cerra 600
Weitering 750
Cripps 800
Docherty 500
Walsh 600
Martin 600

Not 100% sure on the others but believe Martin's contract was so heavily front ended that it's down to $300k for his last 2 years. Don't believe Gov is too far off that either.

 

[Blue__Balls]

Gws trying to get to 1.

On SM-F926B using BigFooty.com mobile app

For them to get to Pick 1, they're gonna need to trade with North who will want Pick 3 and plenty.

GWS Pick 1
WC Pick 2
NM Pick 3

I think the key lies with how creative NM are prepared to get. If I were them, I'd look at trading down with GWS to get overs, trade down again with us to get overs, trade JHF to Port for overs, then trade up with WC.

Pick 1 for Picks 3, 12 and 18 (chuck back a second or third rounder?).
Pick 3 for Picks 10 and future first (Carlton).
JHF for Picks 8 and future first (PA) (plus player?).
Picks 8 and 10 for Pick 2.

They basically turn Pick 1 and JHF into Picks 2, 12, 18, future ~10 (PA) and future ~14 (Carlton).

GWS - Cadman
NM - Wardlaw
Carlton - Sheezel
Essendon - Tsatas?
Adelaide - Philipou?
Hawthorn - McKenzie?
Geelong - Clark?
WC - Busslinger
STK - Humphrey?
WC - Hewett

WC get their local lads.

GWS get Cadman and retain a mid teen pick.

NM still get their preferred player, as well as a good spread of four more picks in the first round over two years.

Carlton get their preferred player and retain Pick 29 for best available.

 

[Doro]

Essentially 3 first round picks for 1 first rounder and a future second?… seems overs to me .. Setterfield will walk into most sides.. to be honest I think we’re undervaluing him a bit … he’s more than a set of steak knives .. rated by many as a top 3 pick In his draft year and we played him out of position this year …is not a winger and he will be very handy for whoever gets him. Pick 10 and a future 1st should be enough to slide up a few places in the draft surely ?

I think the outcome would largely be dependent on how far apart our f1 and their f2 were. You'd hope it wouldn't be a big gap, but who knows what Essendon do next year.

 

[Aphrodite]

R1 pick and Tom De Koning

That’s just for starters Wickz.





#Dodorotrades

 

[Red_man2008]

For them to get to Pick 1, they're gonna need to trade with North who will want Pick 3 and plenty.

GWS Pick 1
WC Pick 2
NM Pick 3

I think the key lies with how creative NM are prepared to get. If I were them, I'd look at trading down with GWS to get overs, trade down again with us to get overs, trade JHF to Port for overs, then trade up with WC.

Pick 1 for Picks 3, 12 and 18 (chuck back a second or third rounder?).
Pick 3 for Picks 10 and future first (Carlton).
JHF for Picks 8 and future first (PA) (plus player?).
Picks 8 and 10 for Pick 2.

They basically turn Pick 1 and JHF into Picks 2, 12, 18, future ~10 (PA) and future ~14 (Carlton).

GWS - Cadman
NM - Wardlaw
Carlton - Sheezel
Essendon - Tsatas?
Adelaide - Philipou?
Hawthorn - McKenzie?
Geelong - Clark?
WC - Busslinger
STK - Humphrey?
WC - Hewett

WC get their local lads.

GWS get Cadman and retain a mid teen pick.

NM still get their preferred player, as well as a good spread of four more picks in the first round over two years.

Carlton get their preferred player and retain Pick 29 for best available.

Adelaide won’t pick Philippou, they’ll pick another random player that every team doesn’t have inside 20.

 

[macky99]

Adelaide won’t pick Philippou, they’ll pick another random player that every team doesn’t have inside 20.

Adelaide won't have that pick, will be traded to Suns for Rankine.

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

He's out of contract, they've offered him more, they've got a low PSD pick.
We don't have much hand.
It's similar to Acres, F3 would be ok. More likely, it's a pick upgrade (#42).

It appears that * may be getting a future 3rd from the Swans for Francis....so there's a chance that the pick - likely somewhere in the early 50's - will be flicked onto us for Setters. Effectively it means that the future 3rd we traded out for Acres we'll get back for Setters.

It also means that we've got a full hand again in the 2023 draft - so we can trade out our future 1st if we're looking to move up the table this year I guess.

 

[Just Kreuzing]

It appears that * may be getting a future 3rd from the Swans for Francis....so there's a chance that the pick - likely somewhere in the early 50's - will be flicked onto us for Setters. Effectively it means that the future 3rd we traded out for Acres we'll get back for Setters.

It also means that we've got a full hand again in the 2023 draft - so we can trade out our future 1st if we're looking to move up the table this year I guess.

So effectively Setterfields wing role to be taken over by a much better option in Acres....