Traded Brisbane trade #66 and #68 to Collingwood for #70 and 2021 R4

[Taylor]

Picks arent capped to list places this year. That means even r5 picks will be worth points by the time Collingwood match. If clubs can get an extra f4 for a pick they have no use for they'll take it.

Run the numbers. A bid at #20 for McInnes in that example earlier (where JUH, Campbell and Jones have been bid on) has the best pick of round five at the time of the bid as #70, worth 39 points.

You're throwing ideas at me and no substance.

 

[Jen2310]

With clubs taking a limited number of picks to the draft, Pies later picks could be pushed up the order when clubs start to pass.

Also, I wonder whether they could package up some later picks for something closer up the draft

 

[blueiris]

Brisbane aren't going to use pick 70 in this years draft so the future 4th comes more useful to the Lions

 

[perplexed]

Run the numbers. A bid at #20 for McInnes in that example earlier (where JUH, Campbell and Jones have been bid on) has the best pick of round five at the time of the bid as #70, worth 39 points.

You're throwing ideas at me and no substance.

I'll think about it tomorrow. But, as an example, Brisbane will likely only take 2 players including Coleman and have way more points than they need to match him.

 

[perplexed]

Run the numbers. A bid at #20 for McInnes in that example earlier (where JUH, Campbell and Jones have been bid on) has the best pick of round five at the time of the bid as #70, worth 39 points.

You're throwing ideas at me and no substance.

Just ran the numbers for North. Current pick 39 will be 37 by the time Colll match, that's enough points to avoid a deficit. We could screw them and take an F2 or f3+ 2*f4 for it and probably still get the same player in the draft.
No way the pies give up f1 for points this year. Not even Ned is that foolish.

 

[Johnny Bananas]

Brisbane aren't going to use pick 70 in this years draft so the future 4th comes more useful to the Lions

I wonder how useful it will end up being. We'd need to cull quite a few players to use it, given we currently have four earlier picks and need to make a call on James Madden. Out of the players whose contracts expire at the end of next season, I can see Mitch Robinson

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Mitch Robinson

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, Birchall, Mathieson, Ballenden, Archie Smith

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Archie Smith

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and maybe McFadyen getting cut, before any other trades in or out. Six delistings would be enough to use the pick, but maybe not five.

 

[blueiris]

I wonder how useful it will end up being. We'd need to cull quite a few players to use it, given we currently have four earlier picks and need to make a call on James Madden. Out of the players whose contracts expire at the end of next season, I can see Mitch Robinson

5

Mitch Robinson

Age

35

Ht

184cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.9

5star

K

11.2

4star

HB

8.7

5star

M

4.1

4star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.2

5star

D

15.8

4star

K

11.3

4star

HB

4.5

3star

M

3.9

4star

T

1.9

3star

CL

1.8

4star

D

13.2

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.6

5star

, Birchall, Mathieson, Ballenden, Archie Smith

44

Archie Smith

Age

29

Ht

203cm

Wt

104kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

2.6

1star

HB

6.9

4star

CL

2.1

4star

HO

14.4

5star

D

4.7

1star

K

1.7

1star

HB

3.0

2star

CL

2.0

4star

HO

11.3

5star

D

12.4

4star

K

3.4

2star

HB

9.0

5star

CL

3.0

5star

HO

17.8

5star

and maybe McFadyen getting cut, before any other trades in or out. Six delistings would be enough to use the pick, but maybe not five.

I think with the new VFL/EC league our Academy players will get more exposure the points will come in handy to match bidding

 

[Suma Magic]

Care to put some predictions or work something out with that?

I have six academy players in the first 25 picks, these chew up 17 later picks. 12 of them are Bulldogs and Sydney. I don't see many clubs that are carrying extra late picks after that.

I have seen examples each year of clubs trading for points during the draft getting absolutely taken to the cleaners for it.

Out of interest, what are some of these examples?

 

[Taylor]

Out of interest, what are some of these examples?

Trade #37 last year: Fremantle traded their second round pick (2020) and pick #60 for #52 and #55 (this was as Liam Henry was bid on, requiring extra points)

When they've got you over the barrel at bid time, you take what they give you.

 

[Lore]

I think with the new VFL/EC league our Academy players will get more exposure the points will come in handy to match bidding

Your academy players played NEAFL? Aw they also in NAB league?

 

[Johnny Bananas]

I think with the new VFL/EC league our Academy players will get more exposure the points will come in handy to match bidding

We don't have any rated prospects for next year though. Except Noah McFadyen, but he's considered more likely to choose cricket over AFL.

 

[Suma Magic]

Trade #37 last year: Fremantle traded their second round pick (2020) and pick #60 for #52 and #55 (this was as Liam Henry was bid on, requiring extra points)

When they've got you over the barrel at bid time, you take what they give you.

Wow. That was harsh.

At least this year all club's will want more 2021 picks. Or in other words, the premium on swapping 2020 picks for 2021 picks will be the greatest its ever been (relative to previous years).

 

[Suma Magic]

Pretty relevant comment from Twomey in his live chat. Just sounds like there is no interest to trade 2021 picks for 2020 picks.

"Would be smart for Hawks to try to push up but the issue is clubs have gone cold on going back down the order. Most are actually looking to swap picks into the future - the Crows and Melbourne are a couple who could look at that, as may Richmond. But that takes a buyer who wants to trade a future pick, and at the moment Collingwood is the only one."

 

[2006_Eagles]

#wojbomb

 

[Jen2310]

Pretty relevant comment from Twomey in his live chat. Just sounds like there is no interest to trade 2021 picks for 2020 picks.

"Would be smart for Hawks to try to push up but the issue is clubs have gone cold on going back down the order. Most are actually looking to swap picks into the future - the Crows and Melbourne are a couple who could look at that, as may Richmond. But that takes a buyer who wants to trade a future pick, and at the moment Collingwood is the only one."

I wonder, if on draft night; quite a few clubs would be coming to the pies to get that 2021 first rounder? Given we're the only one willing to sell it.

 

[Lip Gallagher]

That's not going to get them points. They'll need points for Daicos when he is bid at pick 1.

Very unlikely Daicos attracts a bid at one for the same reason the Doggies academy player is unlikley to attract a bid at one.

 

[4tune8]

So if MacInness is bid on at 17 then those picks 65, 66 and 68 would be pushed to the back of the draft. There might only be 50-60 taken, meaning that the bid will cost them nothing.

 

[Northernsoul74]

Very unlikely Daicos attracts a bid at one for the same reason the Doggies academy player is unlikley to attract a bid at one.

And the fact that Horne projects to be the best player.