Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

[fridge21]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I am a Black fan thru and thru as he is one of the best pollers of all time. Brown polls quite well and especially polled well in the games that Lethal threw him in the middle ( a bit like Richo when moved to the wing last year ).
Black has had a very good year in terms of Brownlow votes and will be closish to last year. Brown has had a good year but far from great in terms of votes.
I break it down to games where they can get 2-3, 1-1.9 and 0-.9.
Black = 7,5,3 total games to potentially poll 15 ( 12 games of 1+ )
Brown = 6,2,2 total games to potentially poll 10 ( 8 games of 1+ )

In summary, Black to beat Brown and degree of confidence = 95/100

Boyd is a lock IMO and I have him 4,4,10 total games to poll 18 ( 8 1+ games )
Next best at Dogs Cross 3,2,4 then Cooney 1,5,3
Degree of confidence re Boyd at the Dogs = 98/100

I hope that helps.

thanks mate, appreciate the stats and looking at how you assign your votes too! very interesting. Agree with 95% of what you have suggested, except i am very keen on Swan winning it.

One last question, how much damage do you think can be done to a players odds with one round remaining? For example, If Black is a clear BOG against the Swans, how much could his current TAB price of $1.60 shorten? Most likely he will cop Kirk maybe Jack so he won't be having an easy night. (pay day next week haha i hope he and brown are quiet and nothing changes till pay day!)

After this weeks games there is obviously 3 or so weeks to the count....in your experience do the teams most votes odds change much or do they pretty much stay similar to what they are now?

thanks again for your advice.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal

FYi i have Aker almost = with Cooney so Cross, Cooney, Aker all close to = but well off Boyd.
The Stanton vs Watson battle worries me more than any other. I reckon that Stanton had it covered until rounds 19 and 20 where Watson put in 2 v big games.
I now have Stanton 3 ( 2-3 ),2 ( 1-1.9 ),3 ( 0-.9 ) and Watson 2,3,2 so both polling in potential of 8 games. I know that everyone on here thinks Watson has it covered and 3 weeks ago I disagreed strongly but now call it a line ball call. Naturally I have used Watson in many multis as savers over the past 2 weeks ( TAB rolled me by keeping Ess closed last week but Centrebet accomodated me and i was back into the TAB today ).

I rate Adelaide a 2 horse race between Vince and Thompson. Thomo polls big time but Vince did do quite well last year.
Vince 3,4,6 vs Thompson 1,5,8 and I have Vince about 2 in front.
I don't think that Edwards can win and have him as 1,4,7 - simply not enough big games.
Remember that the 0-9 category means a chance to poll so not much weighting can be placed in that area but they are handy to have come Brownlow night if your man is polling well as a bit like an election trends seem to continue.
I have been on Vince at great value for a fair while and he's still amazing value at $4.25.

For what it's worth I still have Hayes in front at the Saints and the TAB will almost close down if all my anchors get up plus Hayes. I can't believe that he's $8.50.
Ross Lyon hasn't helped me by resting him twice in the past 3 weeks but fortunately for me the other big names haven't done so well either and they dropped the 2 games.

Thanks for your thoughts mate, you sure know your stuff.

I just placed a couple of multis down, let me know what you think:

VINCE Bernie @ Price:4.25

BLACK Simon @ Price:1.60

JUDD Chris @ Price:1.07

BOYD Matthew @ Price:1.45

GOODES Adam @ Price:1.02

HARVEY Brent @ Price:1.50

WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15

Multibet 7 legs @ Combined Price: $34.70 = Combined Return520.50


Also whacked in Thompson to hedge my bets in a way, given i'm certain it's a 2 horse race between either Vince or Thompson.

THOMPSON Scott @ Price:3.50

BLACK Simon @ Price:1.60

JUDD Chris @ Price:1.07

BOYD Matthew @ Price:1.45

GOODES Adam @ Price:1.02

HARVEY Brent @ Price:1.50

WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15

Multibet 7 legs @ Combined Price: $28.58 = Combined Return: $428.70

Also might offlay $10 on another 2 exact multis, except replacing Watson with Stanton to cover myself as i'm quite confident the Essendon market will be a 2 horse race also. May be a waste, but got hurt last year when a 6/7 leg multi fell over on one leg. Is this a waste of time?

Btw nice heads up on Hayes, he's one that's flown under the radar. He's had a massive year, and coming off the back of winning the Saints Brownlow votes last year he's going to be a massive chance. $8.00 is ridiculous odds! Did a mock 5 leg multi with him in it earlier and it came to combined odds of over $200! Crazy!

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

thanks mate, appreciate the stats and looking at how you assign your votes too! very interesting. Agree with 95% of what you have suggested, except i am very keen on Swan winning it.

One last question, how much damage do you think can be done to a players odds with one round remaining? For example, If Black is a clear BOG against the Swans, how much could his current TAB price of $1.60 shorten? Most likely he will cop Kirk maybe Jack so he won't be having an easy night. (pay day next week haha i hope he and brown are quiet and nothing changes till pay day!)

After this weeks games there is obviously 3 or so weeks to the count....in your experience do the teams most votes odds change much or do they pretty much stay similar to what they are now?

thanks again for your advice.

TAB didn't put up most votes until the end of the season ( I'm pretty sure last year ) and I wasn't aware of Centrebet having them up either so no precedence.
IMO If Black was to get BOG and Brown a clear 0, Black will be into $1.35 or so. If the oppposite happens then Black may be $1.80 and Brown $2 or so. Precedence is Watson / Stanton where they kept Stanton fav after Watson's 2 big games.
I agree with you, sadly for Blacky he struggles against Sydney. Kirky beats him every time and I'd say he will stop him again and Syd will win the game as a farewell for the retirees. Goodes will prob play a big one but I must admit I'm better at studying results than predicting them so you never know.

After this week ends and they put up prices I wouldn't expect too many changes until the count. The pro punters will have a crack at the winner and we may see one of Judd / Ablett / Swan / Goodes backed big time but the team votes won't change much.

Last year Judd, Richo etc kept firming between R22 and the night for most votes at their clubs but I'd say that was more to do with the fact that the TAB put up the wrong prices ( Richo $2 into $1.50 for eg ).

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Thanks for your thoughts mate, you sure know your stuff.

I just placed a couple of multis down, let me know what you think:

VINCE Bernie @ Price:4.25

BLACK Simon @ Price:1.60

JUDD Chris @ Price:1.07

BOYD Matthew @ Price:1.45

GOODES Adam @ Price:1.02

HARVEY Brent @ Price:1.50

WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15

Multibet 7 legs @ Combined Price: $34.70 = Combined Return520.50


Also whacked in Thompson to hedge my bets in a way, given i'm certain it's a 2 horse race between either Vince or Thompson.

THOMPSON Scott @ Price:3.50

BLACK Simon @ Price:1.60

JUDD Chris @ Price:1.07

BOYD Matthew @ Price:1.45

GOODES Adam @ Price:1.02

HARVEY Brent @ Price:1.50

WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15

Multibet 7 legs @ Combined Price: $28.58 = Combined Return: $428.70

Also might offlay $10 on another 2 exact multis, except replacing Watson with Stanton to cover myself as i'm quite confident the Essendon market will be a 2 horse race also. May be a waste, but got hurt last year when a 6/7 leg multi fell over on one leg. Is this a waste of time?

Btw nice heads up on Hayes, he's one that's flown under the radar. He's had a massive year, and coming off the back of winning the Saints Brownlow votes last year he's going to be a massive chance. $8.00 is ridiculous odds! Did a mock 5 leg multi with him in it earlier and it came to combined odds of over $200! Crazy!

I love the multi you did and i have many similar. Good saver to swap Vince and Goodes and I strongly recommend you swap Watson for Stanton into Vince and Thompson.
The rest will win so you can wait in the queue ! harvey is the only other really minor risk but I have Simpson 2nd at Roos ( harvey 5 in front ) so should be right.

I have all yours plus add Selwood / Ablett options and Hayes/ Goddard / Dal. I do them on spreadsheets to ensure I have covered everything. It takes a while but should be worth it. My missus sees me with the laptop out doing the Brownlow form and playing with spreadsheets every night and reckons we never talk !

Hayes is a must watch - 15 last year and rolled us all with Riewoldt. Has had a super / better year. Riewoldt and Montagna and possibly Goddard to be the disappointments at Stk.

 

[Rhino5]

Re: Brownlow Medal

The one thing that worries me in all this is people putting Brent Harvey in their multis. I really don't think he is anywhere near a lock to get most votes for the Roos - has hardly done anything this year. Just my opinion though.

 

[brent-83]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I agree, re: Hayes.

Potentially leading half way this year.. I'll be taking the $51 on offer at the TAB now.

 

[Gift]

Re: Brownlow Medal

The one thing that worries me in all this is people putting Brent Harvey in their multis. I really don't think he is anywhere near a lock to get most votes for the Rood - has hardly done anything this year. Just my opinion though.

It all depends on whether he gets both the 3s in the two clear BOG matches that he played in

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

The one thing that worries me in all this is people putting Brent Harvey in their multis. I really don't think he is anywhere near a lock to get most votes for the Rood - has hardly done anything this year. Just my opinion though.

Harvey has 2 clear BOGs - R4 vs Ess and R16 vs Rich. He also has 3 v good games in losses in R13 vs Dogs and R18 vs Carl where he should poll plus the WC loss in R20 and the Melb win in R19 as outside chances...all up should be around 10 and that should do.
Simpson went OK to R10 and I have Petrie polling in a max of 4 games, R21 being clearly his best game for the year and only real chance for 3 votes. i've got him on 5.

Like I've said he's no good thing but represents value at the price - was better value a few weeks ago when $2+. It does suck on Brownlow night when you are dying for a vote and youy realise that your guy didn't even play so that's Boomers only problem !

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I agree, re: Hayes.

Potentially leading half way this year.. I'll be taking the $51 on offer at the TAB now.

Selwood can be leading half way and I took the $34 at the TAB for plenty when they put them up. I reckon Ablett / Judd / Selwood to fight out R11 leader. $1.75 vs $6 vs $34 was obvious value to me.
If he's in front half way I will really enjoy the count as they won't catch him. I realistically think that Judd or Ablett will be in front of him by 1 or 2 though.

I really wish that someone could explain why Ablett was fav from Judd and then Selwood at the TAB after R11 and yet they put Selwood up at $34 and about 20th fav.

Hayes is also a half way Smokey and his first half was v v good. Pity he had a blinder in R12 though ( and R14 ).

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

It all depends on whether he gets both the 3s in the two clear BOG matches that he played it

Yes and they were clear BOG's, at worst 5 votes between them.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

The main reason that I cannot be bothered with Sportsbet betting is because you cannot multi anything together. Really restrictive and safe with their system.

 

[TimeFor11]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Am I the only one that thinks that Porplyzia under other players can win for the Crows.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Am I the only one that thinks that Porplyzia under other players can win for the Crows.

Tippett/Doughty/Goodwin/Edwards can threaten too, but it's really a two horse race.

Can't wait for group bets and H2H bets though.

Just did a few bets today. A bit on Judd/Ablett (didn't have Ablett in any quinellas). Davey x Watson x Thompson x Deledio and Davey x Watson x Deledio x Locks (Mitchell, Judd, Goodes).

Most of my multis have Harvey, so thought I'd get a few more that dont.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I love the multi you did and i have many similar. Good saver to swap Vince and Goodes and I strongly recommend you swap Watson for Stanton into Vince and Thompson.
The rest will win so you can wait in the queue ! harvey is the only other really minor risk but I have Simpson 2nd at Roos ( harvey 5 in front ) so should be right.

I have all yours plus add Selwood / Ablett options and Hayes/ Goddard / Dal. I do them on spreadsheets to ensure I have covered everything. It takes a while but should be worth it. My missus sees me with the laptop out doing the Brownlow form and playing with spreadsheets every night and reckons we never talk !

Hayes is a must watch - 15 last year and rolled us all with Riewoldt. Has had a super / better year. Riewoldt and Montagna and possibly Goddard to be the disappointments at Stk.

Thanks for the tips mate, much appreciated! I went ahead and swapped Watson for Stanton into Vince and Thompson for extra cover.

What did you mean in the part i highlighted above? Did you mean swap Vince for Goodwin?

You're right regarding Harvey, and i'm starting to feel a little nervous now as i've just realized he's in 7/9 of my multis. Just hope to god he can come through with the goods for North, or even better have a blinder this weekend.

 

[benchwarmers]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Im thinking of doing

VINCE Bernie @ Price:4.25

BLACK Simon @ Price:1.60

JUDD Chris @ Price:1.07

BOYD Matthew @ Price:1.45

GOODES Adam @ Price:1.02

DELEDIO Brett @ Price:1.70

WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15

and covering vince with thompson and watson with stanton. Do you think there's a good chance one of these will get up?

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Most Team Votes for each team(just placed $10 on each):

Murphy @ 7.50 for Carlton

Watson @ 2.15 for Essendon

Brad Sewell @ 6.50 for Hawthorn

Colin Sylvia @ 9.00 for Melbourne

Montagna @ 3.50 for St.Kilda

 

[tarky]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Im thinking of doing

VINCE Bernie @ Price:4.25

BLACK Simon @ Price:1.60

JUDD Chris @ Price:1.07

BOYD Matthew @ Price:1.45

GOODES Adam @ Price:1.02

DELEDIO Brett @ Price:1.70

WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15

and covering vince with thompson and watson with stanton. Do you think there's a good chance one of these will get up?

Because watson and stanton are around the same price, wouldn't it make more sense to just leave them both out and double your bet since they are both around 2-1? It'd end up being the same outlay for the same return anyway, but just in one bet instead of two. (and you're then covered from the freak possibility of an upset and losing both bets - so you're covering yourself. Why add more risk than you have to)

if you want to have a few different multis why not just add vince + watson to your 'lock' list in one bet, then only add watson and take vince out in another, then only add vince and take watson out in another one ect ect.

This way all your bets have the potential to get up, instead of 3 out of 4 being certain losers.

 

[Schmucta]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Looks like this thread has slipped past the 1000 post rule....of which I cannot find any reasoning for anywhere and would gladly be shown in the right direction...

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Am I the only one that thinks that Porplyzia under other players can win for the Crows.

He must be some outside chance. Has played 5 vote potential games IMO. Rounds 3 ( max 2 votes ), 12 ( 2 ), 15 ( 2 ), 21 ( 3 ) so 9 votes max IMo and the leader at Adel will be closer to 15.
You will be looking for him to kick a big bag vs Carl this week.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Thanks for the tips mate, much appreciated! I went ahead and swapped Watson for Stanton into Vince and Thompson for extra cover.

What did you mean in the part i highlighted above? Did you mean swap Vince for Goodwin?

You're right regarding Harvey, and i'm starting to feel a little nervous now as i've just realized he's in 7/9 of my multis. Just hope to god he can come through with the goods for North, or even better have a blinder this weekend.

No I didn't mean Goodwin at all, you have done what I felt will have you as safe as one can get for a nice collect.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Im thinking of doing

VINCE Bernie @ Price:4.25

BLACK Simon @ Price:1.60

JUDD Chris @ Price:1.07

BOYD Matthew @ Price:1.45

GOODES Adam @ Price:1.02

DELEDIO Brett @ Price:1.70

WATSON Jobe @Price:2.15

and covering vince with thompson and watson with stanton. Do you think there's a good chance one of these will get up?

I think if you cover Vince with Thompson and Watson with Stanton ( or as someone else suggested just leave Ess out as they are as good as $2's each any way ) then you should go close.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Are you going to post your complete votes at the end of next week, Brownlow King?

No dramas. I have been sharing bits of info all year and always replying to any questions from anyone. I am more than happy to do so, I haven't probably as it takes so long to post. I'll try to get top 3 for each club up by the end of the week.

If you've read my posts over the past couple of months you would have all my selections pretty much anyway.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Yeah, I've looked over your posts a couple of times but seeing what you think the top few from each club are at the conclusion of round 22 would be good.

No dramas, what I'll do then is wait until the weekend is over and then post my full board.

 

[KR37]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think if everyone is taking BK's advice, the TAB are gonna be in some serious trouble after Brownlow night

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I think if everyone is taking BK's advice, the TAB are gonna be in some serious trouble after Brownlow night

Yep it might be a case of get in the queue to collect quickly on the Tuesday before they run out of cash !
I am sure that not everyone is taking my advice and I enjoy going onto this site to hear different views which I can consider as it all comes down to interpretation. However, those who watch more games and spend more time ananlysing results are no doubt more qualified to comment.
We are all allies and the battle is against the corporate bookmaker !!!