Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

[eaglespremiers]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Im glad to see someone agree with me as I am almost certain Judd will win or be VERY close.

I think I may just do 4 or 5 quinellas involving Judd, better than tipping him outright, isnt really worth it for 5:1

Think you are spot on and he is almost a shoe-in to get it. He has so many potential games where he can poll it seems impossible for him to not get at least mid-twenties.
Still think Boyd could be a danger but Judd seems the most likely of the three favourites.

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal

where can i view quinella odds?

Hayes to place at $21, is that value?

 

[TimeFor11]

Re: Brownlow Medal

shattered i included cooney in these small multis back in june.

I also have Cooney beating Boyd. Your first multi looks very nice I personally have Montagna to win saints though the others look good.

I actually have one going from 3 weeks back

Cooney @ $13 - Tredrea @ $4 J.Brown @ $1.9

 

[TimeFor11]

Re: Brownlow Medal

TAB are pathetic. Next year will have to do all my bets online.

Who is the best, Centrebet, Betfair?

No idea for Centrebet.

But betfair is only good for betting on the winner as thats the only market that has high liquidity. The team votes option has just been made available but no money in there whatsoever. Well no realistic money.

They dont have quinella option etc... hopefully closer to the date some money gets in there and some different betting options. Beside the fact the TAB don't give the best odds they do have the most betting options which makes them the leader for Brownlow betting I guess.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Boyd should be close. I'd like to see a three way tie between Hayes, Boyd and Goodes.

I'd shake on that result right now as well !

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Im glad to see someone agree with me as I am almost certain Judd will win or be VERY close.

I think I may just do 4 or 5 quinellas involving Judd, better than tipping him outright, isnt really worth it for 5:1

Spot on - take Judd ( since you like him ) with anyone else you like in Quinellas and you will go close. The value is heaps better than backing him outright. You might consider taking a few options without Judd as the odds grow big time and if it's close the quinella could easily not involve one of the favs like last year.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Really disappointed in TAB not offering Boyd in Quinella options.

If you ring up, will they quote him. Wouldn't mind putting a few like Ablett/Boyd, Selwood/Boyd for some good value.

I know, bad news is that he is any other so you basically take the unders big time.
They won't be able to offer him if you call up as the options are set and any other would be stuffed if they introduced new options now.

 

[fridge21]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Really disappointed in TAB not offering Boyd in Quinella options.

If you ring up, will they quote him. Wouldn't mind putting a few like Ablett/Boyd, Selwood/Boyd for some good value.

totally agree but i was looking for Murphy, and any other at $17's is poor value.

Do they have the work experience kid doing this for them?

 

[The Water Scorpion]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Bloody disgrace TAB Sportsbet. Still have all club voting suspended yet other sites have all betting available. Will surely cost them clients down the track....

 

[KR37]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Does anyone have an idea when the club voting will be opened again?
For TAB Sportsbet that is..

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Does anyone have an idea when the club voting will be opened again?
For TAB Sportsbet that is..

Last week they opened early arvo Tues. I am not pro the TAB but think that they are obv carefully assessing each club and the weekend games as they stand to lose a bomb with all the multis that guys like us do.
They will be up soon. Still no reason why Ess stayed suspended all last week.
The firmers from last week will be Boyd, Deledio, Murphy / Gibbs, Vince / Thompson, Sandilands, Petrie, Goddard.
The drifters will be Harvey, Judd / Swan slightly, Montagna.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I know, bad news is that he is any other so you basically take the unders big time.
They won't be able to offer him if you call up as the options are set and any other would be stuffed if they introduced new options now.

It's ridiculous. You could be getting some three figure odds with combos like Goodes/Boyd and Selwood/Boyd.

No point in taking $17. You can get him to place for $7.50.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

It's ridiculous. You could be getting some three figure odds with combos like Goodes/Boyd and Selwood/Boyd.

No point in taking $17. You can get him to place for $7.50.

Spot on Blacky !

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Spot on Blacky !

Guess what lads.....TAB are putting up most votes right now.................

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Guess what lads.....TAB are putting up most votes right now.................

Slowly opening them...

Black still value at $1.60 for pumping up multi value.

Watson at $2.15 and Stanton $1.85. Not bad.

They still have no idea with Adelaide.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Does Syliva have a shot at Melbourne's votes? Dominated a few games, and at $8.50 worth a shot.

Other than that, it is pretty much only Davey with a shot, and at $2.20 is great odds.

 

[whisso]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Does Syliva have a shot at Melbourne's votes? Dominated a few games, and at $8.50 worth a shot.

Other than that, it is pretty much only Davey with a shot, and at $2.20 is great odds.

melbourne is pretty hard too call, Davey has a poor polling history, but that might not mean much as he's played pretty much his whole career up until this year as a forward pocket, where as this year he's really stood out across half back. Sylvia is defiantely the one who is stopping me from betting on Davey, he had that month where he dominated, but it was in a losing team and i couldnt see him being an umpires favourite... Will be an interesting group too watch but i'm personally not touching it

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Although Port is so up in the air, I think it might be worth including Players Not Quoted (Boak) @ $4.75 in a multi. Particularly if he plays well again this week.

Been saying it since mid year. Will be one guy I'm getting on from the start next year if the odds are juicy. Like the look of Gibbs and Prismall aswell for huge 2010s.

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Boak or Tredrea the value. Kane has never polled well. Last year only got 3 votes, and this year he has produced less. Don't see Pearce getting more than 5-6.

Tredrea has a pretty strong polling history when he plays well. Scored 15 and 16 in 03-04. He had those 3 games where 3 votes is nearly guaranteed in all of them. Minimum would be 5-6. Good chance for 9 votes.

Boak is the only consistent performer in that side, although does not get noticed. I can definitely say I did not notice him when he played us this week.

I still think Tredrea has it in the bag. And the bookies seemed to have forgotten about his early season form.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Does Syliva have a shot at Melbourne's votes? Dominated a few games, and at $8.50 worth a shot.

Other than that, it is pretty much only Davey with a shot, and at $2.20 is great odds.

Melb too hard for mine.
Highlights for me are that they have no idea with Adel - 2 horse race between Vince and Thompson IMO, Black v good value at $1.60, Boyd good value at $1.45 as he's a moral for mine, Hayes amazing odds still at $8.50 and he should be a $3 shot, Harvey good odds for multis at $1.50 as Petrie has had a v ave year, Deledio is home at Rich and $1.70 is good for multis.
Other clubs either have the morals too short or are too hard. If I had to stick my neck out I like Pavlich, Other at Melb ( Mclean partic ), Priddis or Lecras.
Ablett / Selwood and Stanton / Watson both genuine 50/50's I reckon.

 

[whisso]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Although Port is so up in the air, I think it might be worth including Players Not Quoted (Boak) @ $4.75 in a multi. Particularly if he plays well again this week.

You also get Rodan thrown in there for a bit of extra value, dont be suprised if he's right up there in port's count, very flashy eye catching player, has polled well in the past. Saying that i still like Pearce for port, a little puzzled as to why he shortened this week though!

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I also have Cooney beating Boyd. Your first multi looks very nice I personally have Montagna to win saints though the others look good.

I actually have one going from 3 weeks back

Cooney @ $13 - Tredrea @ $4 J.Brown @ $1.9

6/16/2009 21:33 6 Leg Multi
Accepted , Undecided
Collingwood Mo..., SWAN, D (... @ 2.40 (Win)
Sydney Most Vo..., GOODES, A... @ 2.50 (Win)
Carlton Most V..., JUDD, C (... @ 1.75 (Win)
Brisbane Most ..., BLACK, S ... @ 3.00 (Win)
Geelong Most V..., ABLETT JN... @ 1.75 (Win)
Hawthorn Most ..., MITCHELL,... @ 2.50 (Win)
Combined Dividend: 137.813
Potential Payout: 68906.25

If you like your multi, how do you reckon that this one looks at Centrebet ? I had $500 on it. Check out the prices I got on each of them vs today's prices in June.
I have savers invloving Brown at Bris, Selwood at Geel.

 

[whisso]

Re: Brownlow Medal

6/16/2009 21:33 6 Leg Multi
Accepted , Undecided
Collingwood Mo..., SWAN, D (... @ 2.40 (Win)
Sydney Most Vo..., GOODES, A... @ 2.50 (Win)
Carlton Most V..., JUDD, C (... @ 1.75 (Win)
Brisbane Most ..., BLACK, S ... @ 3.00 (Win)
Geelong Most V..., ABLETT JN... @ 1.75 (Win)
Hawthorn Most ..., MITCHELL,... @ 2.50 (Win)
Combined Dividend: 137.813
Potential Payout: 68906.25

If you like your multi, how do you reckon that this one looks at Centrebet ? I had $500 on it. Check out the prices I got on each of them vs today's prices in June.
I have savers invloving Brown at Bris, Selwood at Geel.

Wow!! Centrebet would be hating you! I might have to have a look at their odds mid season next year...

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Am I reading that right?! 69k payout. My god.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal

6/16/2009 21:33 6 Leg Multi
Accepted , Undecided
Collingwood Mo..., SWAN, D (... @ 2.40 (Win)
Sydney Most Vo..., GOODES, A... @ 2.50 (Win)
Carlton Most V..., JUDD, C (... @ 1.75 (Win)
Brisbane Most ..., BLACK, S ... @ 3.00 (Win)
Geelong Most V..., ABLETT JN... @ 1.75 (Win)
Hawthorn Most ..., MITCHELL,... @ 2.50 (Win)
Combined Dividend: 137.813
Potential Payout: 68906.25

If you like your multi, how do you reckon that this one looks at Centrebet ? I had $500 on it. Check out the prices I got on each of them vs today's prices in June.
I have savers invloving Brown at Bris, Selwood at Geel.

Great multi

Only danger I can see is Brown. Irrespective, you've pretty much guaranteed yourself a massive profit via hedging (bar a massive upset on a leg).