Brownlow Medal 2009 (Part 1)

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Am I reading that right?! 69k payout. My god.

You sure are and there are a few other tidy bets as well that I won't bother sending thru.
The key is to get on early and off-lay later in the year if guys you aren't on play well.

That 69k potential collect helps me sleep at night ! I do think that Selwood can roll Gazza though and have the same size collect if Selwood nails him.

 

[The Water Scorpion]

Re: Brownlow Medal

6/16/2009 21:33 6 Leg Multi
Accepted , Undecided
Collingwood Mo..., SWAN, D (... @ 2.40 (Win)
Sydney Most Vo..., GOODES, A... @ 2.50 (Win)
Carlton Most V..., JUDD, C (... @ 1.75 (Win)
Brisbane Most ..., BLACK, S ... @ 3.00 (Win)
Geelong Most V..., ABLETT JN... @ 1.75 (Win)
Hawthorn Most ..., MITCHELL,... @ 2.50 (Win)
Combined Dividend: 137.813
Potential Payout: 68906.25

If you like your multi, how do you reckon that this one looks at Centrebet ? I had $500 on it. Check out the prices I got on each of them vs today's prices in June.
I have savers invloving Brown at Bris, Selwood at Geel.

WOW...That's pretty impressive. Current odds for that bet is $3.00. You have done extremely well not to throw in a Pavlich or a Dean Cox who were also rather short at the time and looking pretty safe.
Someone is in for a nervous night.
Good luck. Hopefully the umpires do the right thing by ya'...

 

[sblack]

Re: Brownlow Medal

How much do you roughly lay each year on the Brownlow, BK?

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal

nice. great bet brownlow king, living up to your name. looks like your set in for a nice collect there.. touch wood.

i think i'll predominately do most team votes multis and not so much individual player bets. but the tab odds don't look all that appealing at the moment, especially compared to some of the odds i've heard the other sites are giving.

would people recommend that i sign up for a centrebet or any other online betting account to do my brownlow betting?? or just stick with the tab.

 

[KR37]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Still can't decide between Watson/Stanton and Ablett/Selwood for my multi.

Might just do the following:
Deledio, Harvey, Black, Boyd, Hayes. Paying around $50

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

How much do you roughly lay each year on the Brownlow, BK?

I had probably better not answer that but let's just say a lot more than anyone else ( outside of pro punters etc who may place a big bet on the winner ).
I put $500 on the multi I showed earlier but normal multi bets would be between $50 to $250 and I do heaps of them.
I bet bigger on the winner when I think people get out to value odds and go pretty hard on the quinella as I feel that when you narrow it to 5 or 6 players the odds are very good on the diff options.
Last year I won massively on the Black-Cooney quinella ( odds were $130 ) and Cooney the win plus lots of smaller team vote multis. Riewoldt stopped me wiping out the TAB.
I decided to put in heaps more work on the medal this year and am taking it very seriously.
Time will tell if all the hours pays off but I am pretty confident of landing something pretty solid.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Still can't decide between Watson/Stanton and Ablett/Selwood for my multi.

Might just do the following:
Deledio, Harvey, Black, Boyd, Hayes. Paying around $50

Massive chance the multi you are looking to do IMO.

 

[BlueStars5]

Re: Brownlow Medal

You sure are and there are a few other tidy bets as well that I won't bother sending thru.
The key is to get on early and off-lay later in the year if guys you aren't on play well.

That 69k potential collect helps me sleep at night ! I do think that Selwood can roll Gazza though and have the same size collect if Selwood nails him.

Apart from Selwood and Brown (as mentioned) the only other player that could be upset is Mitchell and Sewell would be the player who could do that, however I am sure you have got that option covered as well.

Awesome bet though, good luck

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I had probably better not answer that but let's just say a lot more than anyone else ( outside of pro punters etc who may place a big bet on the winner ).
I put $500 on the multi I showed earlier but normal multi bets would be between $50 to $250 and I do heaps of them.
I bet bigger on the winner when I think people get out to value odds and go pretty hard on the quinella as I feel that when you narrow it to 5 or 6 players the odds are very good on the diff options.
Last year I won massively on the Black-Cooney quinella ( odds were $130 ) and Cooney the win plus lots of smaller team vote multis. Riewoldt stopped me wiping out the TAB.
I decided to put in heaps more work on the medal this year and am taking it very seriously.
Time will tell if all the hours pays off but I am pretty confident of landing something pretty solid.

Out of interest, how much did you win last year? Roughly?
What about the year before?

I don't really recall many of your posts prior to last year's brownlow? Can you point me to a few predictions?

Edit:
Found them!
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=12453332#post12453332

Take heed all, most predictions were eerily accurate

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I have been placing bets throughout the year on the Brownlow as well and in terms of each candidate leaders and weight of money I have seen on Betfair I predict the leaders from each club will be:

Adelaide- Edwards or Scott Thompson. Im not sure about Bernie Vince, I dont think he is the type of player that appeals to umpires

Brisbane- Black, Brown or Rich. I fancy Daniel Rich here, has had a quite past month but expect him to be polling well first 15 rounds or so.

Carlton- Judd or Murphy. Judd at $1.07 is still a bit short for my liking. Marc Murphy has had a terrific season and at odds of around $10.00 could well take votes off Judd.

Collingwood- Swann is favourite and rightfully so. But the value I really like here is Leon Davis to be leader of the Brownlow after 11 rounds. He was man of the match 3-4 games here. (i cant find odds for him @ TAB)

Essendon- Jobe Watson should poll well and has been the Dons best player this season.

Fremantle- im not convinced Sandilands will poll as well as some people may suggest. I fancy Haselby here at 4.50. Pavlich has missed too many games.

Geelong- Ablett will win geelong voting (despite missing games)

Hawthorn- Mitchell again this is another safe bet, has been by far the Hawks best player.

Melbourne- Aaron Davey. It is dangerous to touch teams on the bottom of the ladder, but Davey has been influential in melbourne's win this season and at $2.30 is good odds.

North melbourne- Why people have Brent Harvey as favourite is beyond me. He has missed half a season of footy. Havent been following the Roos closely, but at 1.25 from odds I saw at Centrebet, these odds are a Lay to me.

Port Adelaide- I dont think kane Cornes has had that great a season to be honest compared to past few years.(His disposals have gone down significantly comapred to previous years) Might be worth going for an outsider here.

Richmond- Suprised to see brett Deledio as short at 1.65. i think Ben Cousins at 5.50 is worth a go here, has definetly been their best player in the 2nd half of the season.

St.Kilda- toss up between Montagna, Dal Santo and Riewoldt. I honestly cant split them up. But if I was to make a call, id say probably Dal Santo just because he has a good history with umpires on brownlow votes.

Sydney- Goodes- far and away their best player this season.

West Coast- suprised to see Cox and Kerr so short. No way they should be as close as they are. Ive watched most Eagles game this season and Priddis will win the B&F this season. Le Cras has been their 2nd best player but forwards (especially small forwards) dont traditionally do well on betting night. Adam Selwood is the favourite here at 2.20, he has been played in numerous roles in midfield and defence but think thats a bit too short for him here.

Western Bulldogs- Akermanis at 6.00 to be leading votegetter appeals to me. The games where the Bulldogs have won he has kicked goals at crucial times and been a match winner. Boyd is having a good season but I dont think he has traditionally polled well.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Out of interest, how much did you win last year? Roughly?
What about the year before?

I don't really recall many of your posts prior to last year's brownlow? Can you point me to a few predictions?

Edit:
Found them!
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?p=12453332#post12453332

Take heed all, most predictions were eerily accurate

Gee I just looked at the post that you found which I did as my first post for memory last year.
You can see how I won big on the quinella and Cooney plus lots of options with Black.
I've won big nearly every year sine Harvey won in 1997. Back then you could really only bet on the winner and some head to heads.
I've given my top 5 this year and do fear Swan ( of course ) but am quietly confident of by biggest result yet.

 

[TimeFor11]

Re: Brownlow Medal

6/16/2009 21:33 6 Leg Multi
Accepted , Undecided
Collingwood Mo..., SWAN, D (... @ 2.40 (Win)
Sydney Most Vo..., GOODES, A... @ 2.50 (Win)
Carlton Most V..., JUDD, C (... @ 1.75 (Win)
Brisbane Most ..., BLACK, S ... @ 3.00 (Win)
Geelong Most V..., ABLETT JN... @ 1.75 (Win)
Hawthorn Most ..., MITCHELL,... @ 2.50 (Win)
Combined Dividend: 137.813
Potential Payout: 68906.25

If you like your multi, how do you reckon that this one looks at Centrebet ? I had $500 on it. Check out the prices I got on each of them vs today's prices in June.
I have savers invloving Brown at Bris, Selwood at Geel.

Yeah mate well done looks a ripper! The only one in my count that wouldn't come in for sure is Black but you have a saver. The other I have thats close is Swan and Didak both on 16 for me that could easily/most likely go you way! Good Luck as that would be quite a night!

 

[fridge21]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Brownlow King can i ask how confident out of 100 you are of Black beating Brown at Brisbane? I have all my team multi's ready to put on that i have worked out this week and am anchoring Boyd in all of them and am considering Black as a co-anchor strongly as well.

I personally have Black 4.5 votes ahead of Brown however Brown has a lot more 2-3's (will definately poll imo) whereas Black has a lot of 0-2's (may well poll but not certain).

From memory Brown is a very good poller when he plays well. Bit worried.

Thanks.

ps. awesome bet you have going there! impossible not to make a great profit with only a couple of hedges required.

 

[Rhino5]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Boak or Tredrea the value. Kane has never polled well. Last year only got 3 votes, and this year he has produced less. Don't see Pearce getting more than 5-6.

Tredrea has a pretty strong polling history when he plays well. Scored 15 and 16 in 03-04. He had those 3 games where 3 votes is nearly guaranteed in all of them. Minimum would be 5-6. Good chance for 9 votes.

Boak is the only consistent performer in that side, although does not get noticed. I can definitely say I did not notice him when he played us this week.

I still think Tredrea has it in the bag. And the bookies seemed to have forgotten about his early season form.

No one mentions Cassisi. I haven't seen a lot of Port games so not sure how he went in their wins, but hasn't he had a pretty good season?

 

[Rhino5]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Collingwood- Swann is favourite and rightfully so. But the value I really like here is Leon Davis to be leader of the Brownlow after 11 rounds. He was man of the match 3-4 games here. (i cant find odds for him @ TAB)

On Sportsbet, Davis is 67-1 to lead after 11. Ablett is probably a virtual lock, but Davis had an explosive first half. Looks like pretty decent value, especially since there are a few names ahead of him that would be no chance.

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal

done a few Brownlow/Premiership doubles for a bit of interest. Centrebet had Goodes @ 51.00 about 2 weeks ago and I immediately snapped that up.

Some of my multis:

Judd/Saints $13.25
Goodes/Geelong $102.50
Hayes/Saints $90.10
Goodes/Collingwood $255.00
Judd/Geelong $17.05
Double
O/0174334/0000083, Accepted , Undecided AFL Premiershi...,ST KILDA@ 2.65 (Win)AFL Brownlow M...,JUDD, C (...@ 5.00 (Win)Combined Dividend: 13.25 Potential Payout: 251.75

Double
O/0174334/0000084, Accepted , Undecided AFL Brownlow M...,GOODES, A...@ 41.00 (Win)AFL Premiershi...,GEELONG@ 2.50 (Win)Combined Dividend: 102.50 Potential Payout: 3177.50
Double
O/0174334/0000091, Accepted , Undecided AFL Brownlow M...,HAYES, L ...@ 34.00 (Win)AFL Premiershi...,ST KILDA@ 2.65 (Win)Combined Dividend: 90.10 Potential Payout: 810.90

Double
O/0174334/0000105, Accepted , Undecided AFL Brownlow M...,GOODES, A...@ 51.00 (Win)AFL Premiershi...,COLLINGWO...@ 5.00 (Win)Combined Dividend: 255.00 Potential Payout: 3060.00

Double
O/0174334/0000112, Accepted , Undecided AFL Brownlow M...,JUDD, C (...@ 5.50 (Win)AFL Premiershi...,GEELONG@ 3.10 (Win)Combined Dividend: 17.05 Potential Payout: 1023.00

 

[Subaru Impreza]

Re: Brownlow Medal

also had a few roughies out of the hat

Mark LeCras TOP 3= paid $1000.00
Brian Lake TOP 3= paid $1251.00
Jobe Watson TOP 3= $55.00
Priddis TOP 3= $130.00


not expecting any of these to get up, but i must admit all 4 have had good seasons.

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Great multi

Only danger I can see is Brown. Irrespective, you've pretty much guaranteed yourself a massive profit via hedging (bar a massive upset on a leg).

hedging? is that where you put a saver(s), guaranteeing a profit eitherway (obviously except for a MAJOR upset).

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

hedging? is that where you put a saver(s), guaranteeing a profit eitherway (obviously except for a MAJOR upset).

It sure is !

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal

hedging? is that where you put a saver(s), guaranteeing a profit eitherway (obviously except for a MAJOR upset).

Yep

Nice bets BK

Sportsbet have finally put some markets up...round 11/groups/winner's team/groups/quinella.

I think someone asked about a quinella with Boyd...sportsbet have Boyd on his own (and a few others)

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports...72/RoundPID/10038/EventID/1004477/MenuLevel/C

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Brownlow King can i ask how confident out of 100 you are of Black beating Brown at Brisbane? I have all my team multi's ready to put on that i have worked out this week and am anchoring Boyd in all of them and am considering Black as a co-anchor strongly as well.

I personally have Black 4.5 votes ahead of Brown however Brown has a lot more 2-3's (will definately poll imo) whereas Black has a lot of 0-2's (may well poll but not certain).

From memory Brown is a very good poller when he plays well. Bit worried.

Thanks.

ps. awesome bet you have going there! impossible not to make a great profit with only a couple of hedges required.

I am a Black fan thru and thru as he is one of the best pollers of all time. Brown polls quite well and especially polled well in the games that Lethal threw him in the middle ( a bit like Richo when moved to the wing last year ).
Black has had a very good year in terms of Brownlow votes and will be closish to last year. Brown has had a good year but far from great in terms of votes.
I break it down to games where they can get 2-3, 1-1.9 and 0-.9.
Black = 7,5,3 total games to potentially poll 15 ( 12 games of 1+ )
Brown = 6,2,2 total games to potentially poll 10 ( 8 games of 1+ )

In summary, Black to beat Brown and degree of confidence = 95/100

Boyd is a lock IMO and I have him 4,4,10 total games to poll 18 ( 8 1+ games )
Next best at Dogs Cross 3,2,4 then Cooney 1,5,3
Degree of confidence re Boyd at the Dogs = 98/100

I hope that helps.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

Yep

Nice bets BK

Sportsbet have finally put some markets up...round 11/groups/winner's team/groups/quinella.

I think someone asked about a quinella with Boyd...sportsbet have Boyd on his own (and a few others)

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/sports...72/RoundPID/10038/EventID/1004477/MenuLevel/C

Logging on now.................

 

[TimeFor11]

Re: Brownlow Medal

The sportsbet groups are interesting Sandilands 1.75 seems overs. Gibbs at $12 in young guns is great too. Pavlich @ 10 in veterans too.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I am a Black fan thru and thru as he is one of the best pollers of all time. Brown polls quite well and especially polled well in the games that Lethal threw him in the middle ( a bit like Richo when moved to the wing last year ).
Black has had a very good year in terms of Brownlow votes and will be closish to last year. Brown has had a good year but far from great in terms of votes.
I break it down to games where they can get 2-3, 1-1.9 and 0-.9.
Black = 7,5,3 total games to potentially poll 15 ( 12 games of 1+ )
Brown = 6,2,2 total games to potentially poll 10 ( 8 games of 1+ )

In summary, Black to beat Brown and degree of confidence = 95/100

Boyd is a lock IMO and I have him 4,4,10 total games to poll 18 ( 8 1+ games )
Next best at Dogs Cross 3,2,4 then Cooney 1,5,3
Degree of confidence re Boyd at the Dogs = 98/100

I hope that helps.

I had quite a bit of confidence in Black polling more than Brown, although after reading your thoughts in the above post whatever doubt that still lingered in my mind has now been totally diminished.

Same can be said for Boyd. I'm not sure why part of me thinks Aker will poll quite a few to give the Bulldog's Most Votes a shake. I'm willing to take the risk so will back you in.

How do you assess Watson vs Stanton's chances, as well as Vince vs Thompson? Out of those i'm favoring Watson and Vince, but might take out a few differing combo's incorporating both players.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal

I had quite a bit of confidence in Black polling more than Brown, although after reading your thoughts in the above post whatever doubt that still lingered in my mind has now been totally diminished.

Same can be said for Boyd. I'm not sure why part of me thinks Aker will poll quite a few to give the Bulldog's Most Votes a shake. I'm willing to take the risk so will back you in.

How do you assess Watson vs Stanton's chances, as well as Vince vs Thompson? Out of those i'm favoring Watson and Vince, but might take out a few differing combo's incorporating both players.

FYi i have Aker almost = with Cooney so Cross, Cooney, Aker all close to = but well off Boyd.
The Stanton vs Watson battle worries me more than any other. I reckon that Stanton had it covered until rounds 19 and 20 where Watson put in 2 v big games.
I now have Stanton 3 ( 2-3 ),2 ( 1-1.9 ),3 ( 0-.9 ) and Watson 2,3,2 so both polling in potential of 8 games. I know that everyone on here thinks Watson has it covered and 3 weeks ago I disagreed strongly but now call it a line ball call. Naturally I have used Watson in many multis as savers over the past 2 weeks ( TAB rolled me by keeping Ess closed last week but Centrebet accomodated me and i was back into the TAB today ).

I rate Adelaide a 2 horse race between Vince and Thompson. Thomo polls big time but Vince did do quite well last year.
Vince 3,4,6 vs Thompson 1,5,8 and I have Vince about 2 in front.
I don't think that Edwards can win and have him as 1,4,7 - simply not enough big games.
Remember that the 0-9 category means a chance to poll so not much weighting can be placed in that area but they are handy to have come Brownlow night if your man is polling well as a bit like an election trends seem to continue.
I have been on Vince at great value for a fair while and he's still amazing value at $4.25.

For what it's worth I still have Hayes in front at the Saints and the TAB will almost close down if all my anchors get up plus Hayes. I can't believe that he's $8.50.
Ross Lyon hasn't helped me by resting him twice in the past 3 weeks but fortunately for me the other big names haven't doen so well either and they dropped the 2 games.