Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[PatrickBateman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I heard some are selling their houses and using the funds gained. Then they expect to buy mansions straight after Brownlow night

Did you tell them not to listen to David Schwartz?

 

[Lakey91]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hodge out to $7 after a couple of tough weeks, which is pretty good value IMO.

Agreed that Barlow looks like a solid prospect for freo, particularly if Sandilands misses a couple more games over the coming weeks.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Adelaide: Thompson (10), Goodwin (5), Johncock (4), Douglas (4)
Brisbane: Rischitelli (9), Brown (8), Brennan (6), Black (6)
Carlton: Judd (19), Simpson (11), Betts (6), Murphy (5)
Collingwood: Swan (21), Pendlebury (14), Beams (8), Didak (7)
Essendon: Watson (14), Winderlich (5), Jetta (4), Stanton (4)
Fremantle: Barlow (16), Sandilands (13), Mundy (8), Pavlich (7)
Geelong: Ablett (17), Bartel (16), Selwood (13), Chapman (11)
Hawthorn: Hodge (23), Mitchell (8), Franklin (7), Rioli (5)
Melbourne: Sylvia (10), Green (8), McDonald (7), Davey (6)
North Melbourne: Harvey (16), Swallow (11), Wells (10), Thomas (3)
Port Adelaide: Rodan (7), Cassisi (7), Boak (6), Pearce (5)
Richmond: Deledio (9), Riewoldt (5), Newman (5), Tuck (5)
St Kilda: Hayes (19), Goddard (14), Montagna (13), Dal Santo (8)
Sydney: Goodes (15), Malceski (9), Bolton (8), Jack (8)
West Coast: Priddis (8), Naitanui (4), LeCras (4), Kennedy (3)
Western Bulldogs: Cooney (14), Boyd (12), Gia (11), Griffen (9)

182 players have polled votes so far.

Watched CAR v ESS, SYD v HAW and COL v GEE. Watched 80% of MEL v RICH and WBD v ADE on replay. Watched first half of STK v PTA and based the second half and other two games on what I read on here, match reports etc. Haven't watched as much football over the past few weeks so I tried to make sure I watched a fair bit this week just to add some sort of assurance to my predictions.

Barlow is looking like good value so far.

Good summary and not too different to mine with a number of clubs.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Lenny Hayes into Collingwood would not work before.. said the combination was invalid or something, other players and teams all worked, someone must have invested big?

Question to those who are running their own tallys, I'm interested to know how much are you expecting to invest in this years count?

I had $4k Lenny into Collingwood late arvo y/day with the TAB ( @ $63 ), also had $4k Pendlebury into Coll ( @ $78 ). Maybe they froze it after that ? I'm surprised that they both didn't firm.
I now have Hayes, Judd, Pendlebury, Hodge all loaded into Geel, Coll and Saints for massive collects. I do think Coll are the go to make the GF now and then I offlay. I have Swan into Geel and Saints from weeks back but nothing into Pies and it's too short now. I have a reasonable amount on Selwood stright out and I'm small on Sandilands straight out.
I don't have a dime on Ablett, Goddard, Cooney, Goodes or Harvey.
As long as Swan doesn't blow them away I'd say that I'm pretty sweet.
I need to stop trying to back the winner as I probably have too much on now and like all of you, I can't wait for all of the other options.

 

[sethlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Centrebet will accept the Hayes/Coll double @$60

seth

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I'm small on Sandilands straight out.

So you have Sandilands over Barlow over at Freo??

I think it will be tight there and probably want $4+ until I touch Barlow.

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Geepers BK did you drive your ferrari down to the TAB to put them bets on :0

My gut/research tells me if Sandi/Freo have a poor 3 last rds then i will put Barlow in most multis. If Freo win a couple and Sandi goes well then Barlow is out of multis.

Same if Selwood has another BOG and Ablett doesn't then Selwood is on.

I will Hedge bets with Brown/Risch/Brennan.... but if Brown has another killa game then it will be just Brown.

Same with Boyd and the dogs.. another BOG he in otherwise prob out.

i have my bets worked out at some really sik odds but as mentioned players will prob change with the telling 3 rds left

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

So you have Sandilands over Barlow over at Freo??

I think it will be tight there and probably want $4+ until I touch Barlow.

No, like all of you I think that Barlow could well still be in front of Sandilands. I put the bet on when Sandilands was pretty good odds approx 8 weeks ago.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Geepers BK did you drive your ferrari down to the TAB to put them bets on :0

My gut/research tells me if Sandi/Freo have a poor 3 last rds then i will put Barlow in most multis. If Freo win a couple and Sandi goes well then Barlow is out of multis.

Same if Selwood has another BOG and Ablett doesn't then Selwood is on.

I will Hedge bets with Brown/Risch/Brennan.... but if Brown has another killa game then it will be just Brown.

Same with Boyd and the dogs.. another BOG he in otherwise prob out.

i have my bets worked out at some really sik odds but as mentioned players will prob change with the telling 3 rds left

No I didn't but I will be driving my Ferrari home from the TAB after I collect this year !!
I did a couple of spreadsheets last night with top picks in team multis and used Centrebet prices. Gee there is still some value out there big time once we get to those. Some were worried on this forum that there wouldn't be value this year but there sure will be as many of the good ones will be around $2.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

if Selwood has another BOG and Ablett doesn't then Selwood is on.

At the moment I like Bartel @ 12 but have Bartel/Selwood/Ablett all within 1-2 votes of each other. If the season finished on the weekend I would take Jimmy and still be happy if he drew with one of Selwood/Ablett (still odds of $6). But I really hope Bartel or even Selwood have a massive last few weeks so I can go with one of them- Abletts WAY to short so I guess it would be good if he was quiet over the last rounds.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Some were worried on this forum that there wouldn't be value this year but there sure will be as many of the good ones will be around $2.

Yep my top ones are around $2 too

My top picks in order atm are as followed:

Judd @ 1.22
Thompson @ 1.70
Watson @ 1.95
Goodes @ 2.20
Hayes @ 2.90
Pendlebury @ 6.25
Bartel @ 12.00
(to a lesser extent):
Rodan @ 4.00
Barlow @ 3.20
Riewoldt @ 2.00

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yep my top ones are around $2 too

My top picks in order atm are as followed:

Judd @ 1.22
Thompson @ 1.70
Watson @ 1.95
Goodes @ 2.20
Hayes @ 2.90
Pendlebury @ 6.25
Bartel @ 12.00
(to a lesser extent):
Rodan @ 4.00
Barlow @ 3.20
Riewoldt @ 2.00

yeah your first 5 are the same as me but a little dif order but as mentioned i don't think it matters as i will have them in most bets.

I have Harvey in there in between Goodes and Hayes.

Is the TAB sportsbet limit 3000/1???

 

[Gerrard_to_Torres]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

yeah your first 5 are the same as me but a little dif order but as mentioned i don't think it matters as i will have them in most bets.

I have Harvey in there in between Goodes and Hayes.

Is the TAB sportsbet limit 3000/1???

5000/1, but is it an 8 or 10 leg limit?

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

5000/1, but is it an 8 or 10 leg limit?

Im pretty sure it is a 10 leg limit

Are you sure if the limit is 5000/1?? I thought last year it was only 3000..

 

[Gerrard_to_Torres]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Im pretty sure it is a 10 leg limit

Are you sure if the limit is 5000/1?? I thought last year it was only 3000..

Positive for their other AFL markets. I doubt Brownlow would be any different. Max winnings is 50k as well I believe. Haha, we are being pretty optimistic even discussing this.

I think Sportingbet is 2500/1 but 12 legs?

 

[Kevin McAllister]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Am looking to get onto Hayes/Hodge into Collingwood and Geelong, however instead of going Coll and Gee in seperate bets, what are peoples thoughts on going Coll/Gee quinella paying $3.50?

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Positive for their other AFL markets. I doubt Brownlow would be any different. Max winnings is 50k as well I believe. Haha, we are being pretty optimistic even discussing this.

I think Sportingbet is 2500/1 but 12 legs?

I know sportsbet dont have a maximum odds limit and pay out to $100 000 max for each bet with up to 13 legs

But they probably wont allow multis...

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I have a bone to pick with you, Brownlow King!

So before when I said I was receiving that error with trying to multi Hayes into Collingwood for the flag I contacted TAB's support and this was their response;



It's all good - Geelong will win the flag, anyway.

You little ripper, I like it when the TAB / Bookies get a little nervous ! Believe it or not, Hayes into Geel is a better result for me than Collingwood anyway.

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Positive for their other AFL markets. I doubt Brownlow would be any different. Max winnings is 50k as well I believe. Haha, we are being pretty optimistic even discussing this.

I think Sportingbet is 2500/1 but 12 legs?

Sportingbet don't allow any multis involving the Brownlow and didn't last year either. You can't even go Brownlow-Premiership double with them ( Centrebet and TAB both allow these ).

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Sportingbet don't allow any multis involving the Brownlow and didn't last year either. You can't even go Brownlow-Premiership double with them ( Centrebet and TAB both allow these ).

BK, can you detail to an extent your brownlow betting history (as in when you started and how agencies got cold on multis because of you) and how much you have won each year since you started. Very eager to hear some of the least likely outcomes happening and you've made cash on it.

Just out of interest.

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Aussie gun your count is right on the money

Gee I wish I had some cash flow I'm going to be using my cc to get the bets on so I'm praying for positive.

I would never bet with my cc usually by given the nature of the brownlow I'm all for it.

 

[lions_den]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK, can you detail to an extent your brownlow betting history (as in when you started and how agencies got cold on multis because of you) and how much you have won each year since you started. Very eager to hear some of the least likely outcomes happening and you've made cash on it.

Just out of interest.

Would also like to hear this. From memory I think you said that you don't even work now, you just analyse games and bet on the Brownlow.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK, can you detail to an extent your brownlow betting history (as in when you started and how agencies got cold on multis because of you) and how much you have won each year since you started. Very eager to hear some of the least likely outcomes happening and you've made cash on it.

Just out of interest.

Would also like to hear this. From memory I think you said that you don't even work now, you just analyse games and bet on the Brownlow.

Is this what you guys are looking for

I know the full history of multis as I've punted on the Brownlow for over 10 years.
Iasbet ( Mark Read ) allowed multis on player head to heads and other options in 1998. I cleaned them up and won over $50k ( outlayed around $700 ) which was a lot back then. Most other operators allowed mutis on Brownlow - Premiership and that was about all they bet on back then in relation to the Brownlow.
The year after Iasbet stopped multis on anything to do with the Brownlow. Other agencies still allowed multis into the flag but that was it. The TAB were useless and never allowed multis on anything.
I cleaned up Sportingbet and other big agencies on Brownlow - Flag bets in most years thru the 2000's. Sportingbet stopped multis on even the Brownlow - Flag after I cleaned them up a few times and of the other operators some allowed them and some didn't.
The TAB became far more aggressive a few years back and started allowing multi's on anything, including Brownlow options. It was correctly pointed out that they only brought out team vote options around round 16/17 last year so we will need to wait to see what they do. I am quite confident that they will allow multis that we all got on last year.
I was very surprised to see Centrebet allowing multis on the team votes early on last year. We all cleaned them up so no surprise that they won't allow multis this year. They are still allowing brownlow winner - flag which is good. Judd - Geelong / Collingwood the go for mine at the value right now.
So we will have to wait and see about the TAB but they make squillions and are the leaders now by being the first to bring out their market every week. We should be right so keep doing your homework !

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

BK, can you detail to an extent your brownlow betting history (as in when you started and how agencies got cold on multis because of you) and how much you have won each year since you started. Very eager to hear some of the least likely outcomes happening and you've made cash on it.

Just out of interest.

If you go thru some of my earlier posts either this season ( I'm pretty sure ) or last year people have queried the same type of thing and I replied. That will save me typing it all again. I'm sure that in a post or 2 I talked about the overall history of me and the Brownlow, Mark Read, multi's etc. etc. and in other posts I've given an indication of wins.

See above for one of the posts I was referring to !

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Would also like to hear this. From memory I think you said that you don't even work now, you just analyse games and bet on the Brownlow.

Gee it would be nice not to work !!!! I sure do work and need to squeeze in watching games, doing analysis etc. amongst my hectic life like everyone else.
I find that during the AFL season, particularly late in the year like now when I watch and analyse more closely, it's hard to focus on much else in life.
It's like a relief in a way when the Brownlow's over and I can be normal again for 6 months.