Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Do you guys think Eagleton might poll in the WB game, i thought he was quite noticeable throughout. I'm tossing up between Eagleton and Cross for a vote.

Also i agree that Thompson will poll 1 or 2 votes, his ineffectiveness in those type of conditions will not matter as much, he was constantly involved in the play during the whole game.

 

[AhSteveSteve27]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I think Thompson will poll at least 1 tbh.
If i had to pick one winner right now id go with Hodge. Hayes for my outsider, Swan is either a hit or miss, if he polls well he will 100% win it, but can he poll well? His around $3 so atm im happy to lay him although very very nervous..

Be justice if a Hodge won it IMO. I try to align my votes with the stats of previous years. This year I probably currently have too many in the 13-15 range and have missed out too many randoms in the 1-6 range, although my top 5-6 players seem to be on target. Just seems that in 2010, the game's top echelon (Judd, Ablett, Selwood, Hayes, Swan, Hodge, Harvey etc) have been extremely consistent and have played at an amazing level (only have to look at Champion Data as there are 5-6 players at the level only Ablett has reached in the last couple of years. Should make for a great count and there should be a bit of a divide with a lot of players in the 15-25 range and then a lot in the 0-10 range come round 22.

 

[Ghost of Grinter]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Ive been studying games pretty hard this year.

Chris Judd is the man to be on, Ive said this all along.
Get on Judd, regardless of whether I believe he deserves
to win - he will win.

On Dane Swan, I didnt even have him in my top 5 the other night.
I didnt really notice him and other than the first quarter - I didnt think
Swan had any influence on the game.

Joel Selwood could poll in this game.

3. Didak, clearly best on.
2. Wellingham/Pendelbury.
1. Wellingham/Pendelbury/Varcoe/Selwood.

I cant see the votes going any other way.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Chris Judd is the man to be on, Ive said this all along.
Get on Judd, regardless of whether I believe he deserves
to win - he will win.

I got on Judd @ 7.50 earlier in the year, and then again @ 16s. He is the only player Im on this year, but think he needs at least another BOG to be any chance.

 

[the_big_sav]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

swan 17 to 30 - ave 23.5

hodge 18 to 27 - ave 22.5

judd 13 to 25 - ave 19

hayes 13 to 23 - ave 18

gaz 12 to 22 - ave 17

goddard 12 to 20 - ave 16

sandilands 11 to 21 - ave 16

selwood 10 to 22 - ave 16

cooney 10 to 21 - ave 15.5

bartel 12 to 19 - ave 15.5

barlow 12 to 19 - ave 15.5

goodes 9 to 20 - ave 14.5

chapman 9 to 20 - ave 14.5

pendlebury 7 to 21 - ave 14

harvey 12 to 16 - ave 14

montagna 7 to 19 - ave 13

boyd 8 to 18 - ave 13

deledio 8 to 17 - ave 12.5

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Ive been studying games pretty hard this year.

Chris Judd is the man to be on, Ive said this all along.
Get on Judd, regardless of whether I believe he deserves
to win - he will win.

On Dane Swan, I didnt even have him in my top 5 the other night.
I didnt really notice him and other than the first quarter - I didnt think
Swan had any influence on the game.

Joel Selwood could poll in this game.

3. Didak, clearly best on.
2. Wellingham/Pendelbury.
1. Wellingham/Pendelbury/Varcoe/Selwood.

I cant see the votes going any other way.

i think alot of us have studied games hard this year as well. Good to see your so confident, but the consensus is that the winner will not win this count by much. I think Judd has a great chance, but he is no where near a certainty. I have him coming second at the moment, two votes behind Hodge.

I think that Thomas and O'Brien both have chances to steal the 1 vote. Varcoe had some moments of brilliance but i don't think he didnt enough to get a vote.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Just in case anyone still wasn't 100% sure I got in contact with TAB's customer support and they confirmed that you will be able to multi Most Team Votes again this year and the market will open as soon as the season is finished.

Good news

Centrebets markets open again and some intersting changes for most team votes:

Judd @ 1.22
Thompson @ 2.00
Pendlebury @ 6.25
Hayes @ 2.90

Like the above 4, despite Judd and Thompson shortening...

Also like Goodes @ 2.65, Watson @ 1.95, Bartel @ 12.00, and to a lesser extent Riewoldt @ 2.00, and Rodan @ 4.00

Not much value in the other 7 teams IMO. If things remain the same in the next 3 weeks I will probably base all my multis around these 9 teams, in different combinations.

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Just in case anyone still wasn't 100% sure I got in contact with TAB's customer support and they confirmed that you will be able to multi Most Team Votes again this year and the market will open as soon as the season is finished.

good news

my count for geelong is so close, i got ablett and bartel on 17 and sellwood on 16

also boak at $10 at centrebet, ive got him leading rodan by 2 at the moment

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Good news

Centrebets markets open again and some intersting changes for most team votes:

Judd @ 1.22
Thompson @ 2.00
Pendlebury @ 6.25
Hayes @ 2.90

Like the above 4, despite Judd and Thompson shortening...

Also like Goodes @ 2.65, Watson @ 1.95, Bartel @ 12.00, and to a lesser extent Riewoldt @ 2.00, and Rodan @ 4.00

Not much value in the other 7 teams IMO. If things remain the same in the next 3 weeks I will probably base all my multis around these 9 teams, in different combinations.

I still think there is value in the other teams if ya willing to add 1-2 more players than normal to the bet.

there are a few teams i don't think i will add to my bets other than some small ones ($5) Melb, Tigers, Port, Pies

Goodestuff goin on a few you like which are the ones i like i have added a couple more to get the value:

Goodes, Watson, Harvey, Judd, Thompson (these will be my anchors i think with 3 weeks pending) Hayes, Brown, Barlow 401/1.

I will cover all bets with imo sure thing of Goodes, Watson, Judd, Thompson 7/1 $50

Then will go right out there and make the night F%@king interesting with some big ones

Goodes, Watson, Harvey, Judd, Thompson, Hayes, Brown, Barlow, Priddis, Selwood & Boyd. 3861/1

 

[GoodesStuff]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I will cover all bets with imo sure thing of Goodes, Watson, Judd, Thompson 7/1 $50

Funny you mention that because I see these 4 as my anchors too

Im thinking of using Judd in 100% of multis, and Thompson, Watson, Goodes in 2/3 of the multis each. Then I would chuck in a roughie.

eg:
Judd / Watson / Thompson / Hayes
Judd / Watson / Goodes / Bartel
Judd / Thompson / Goodes / Rodan

As you can see 2 in every three bets has one of Thompson, Watson, Goodes, and a roughie is in there to add value. Doing it this way, I would only really need 2 of Goodes, Thompson, Watson to win their clubs votes with just 1 roughie to see a profit. If all my anchors get up: $$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Can't get on at work, can anyone tell me the odds for:

Brown/Rischitelli
Green
Harvey
Rodan



Goodes/Watson/Judd/Thompson is pretty much locked in. I like Harvey now (despite others being afraid of Swallow). Hope he is still $1.50+

 

[Rippo]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Can't get on at work, can anyone tell me the odds for:

Brown/Rischitelli 2.50/7
Green 2.50
Harvey 1.40
Rodan 4



Goodes/Watson/Judd/Thompson is pretty much locked in. I like Harvey now (despite others being afraid of Swallow). Hope he is still $1.50+

Brown/Rischitelli 2.50/7
Green 2.50
Harvey 1.40
Rodan 4

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Brown/Rischitelli 2.50/7
Green 2.50
Harvey 1.40
Rodan 4

Thanks

Harvey so short! I put a bit on Rischitelli last week at 12, shortened more then I expected.

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

thompson been smashed into 1.70 while goodes is now 2.20.

Still liking boak @$10 and brown @$2.50 think will be on about 9-10 votes which i reckon will be enough for brissie.

heres hoping murphy gets a bog to ease judd's price

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

How many does everyone have Davey on? To be honest, i'm really surprised he's not offered as an option on Centrebet for most votes for the dees.

 

[Thommo 42]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

he was favourite In about Round 5 when he was cutting it up and I jumped on him at about $8.

Don't think it will be a winner though, unless he comes home like a steamtrain

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

How many does everyone have Davey on? To be honest, i'm really surprised he's not offered as an option on Centrebet for most votes for the dees.

There are a few players who you'd think were in the top 5 most likely for their teams that are not included.

Melbourne for me is a 2 horse race between Green and Sylvia. I would however say that the only other 2 with a chance of sneaking home would be Davey and Moloney. I cant believe they offer Lynden Dunn as an option instead of Davey! Surely that's purely a ploy to sucker a few people in after he kicked a few goals on the weekend...

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i have chris newman about equal lead with tuck at tigers, hes at 34.00 on centrebet, anyone else have him around the top or is it just me?

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

For Melbourne look for James McDonald to poll a few votes during our early winning streak (before he got injured). Green has been the standout since then, but if Sylvia has another BOG or two could be the man. Too close to call at the moment imo.

Frawley or Jamar will probs win our BandF, but won't poll many Brownlow votes.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i have chris newman about equal lead with tuck at tigers, hes at 34.00 on centrebet, anyone else have him around the top or is it just me?

nope i'm with you on that one. I think newman is amazing value. I have deledio and newman in the lead, with cousins close behind then tuck and riewoldt. Extremely hard team to pick.

Hopefully the richmond v port game at etihad in round 22 can give us a tigers victory so we can be a bit more clear.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

sigh goodes into $2.20 was going to whack some on at him when he was at $2.85 but my centrebet account ticked over to "closed" because i havnt sent in 100 points of ID yet

 

[stuziman]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

thompson been smashed into 1.70 while goodes is now 2.20.

Still liking boak @$10 and brown @$2.50 think will be on about 9-10 votes which i reckon will be enough for brissie.

heres hoping murphy gets a bog to ease judd's price

could have got on thompson at $14 after 7 games haha

boak is iffy

i think rodan is real value because he fits the polling type build

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

could have got on thompson at $14 after 7 games haha

boak is iffy

i think rodan is real value because he fits the polling type build

agreed rodan is the fav but i still like boak. Its hard to tell with port as it is probably the most open field brownlow wise.

 

[Athomas]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Agree on Newman.

DAL SANTO, N (STK) 34.00

Really? I have Hayes 16, NDS/Montagna 14, Goddard 12.

Value as.....

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

SYLVIA, C (MELB) - Most Brownlow Votes - Melbourne
3.75 0.00
HAYES, L (STK) - Most Brownlow Votes - St Kilda
2.90 0.00
HARVEY, B (NM) - Most Brownlow Votes - North Melbourne
1.40 0.00
BLACK, S (BRIS) - Most Brownlow Votes - Brisbane
2.20 0.00
THOMPSON, S (ADEL) - Most Brownlow Votes - Adelaide
2.00 0.00
BOAK, T (PTA) - Most Brownlow Votes - Port Adelaide
10.00 0.00
COONEY, A (WBD) - Most Brownlow Votes - Western Bulldogs
2.55 0.00
BARTEL, J (GEE) - Most Brownlow Votes - Geelong
12.00 0.00
GOODES, A (SYD) - Most Brownlow Votes - Sydney
2.60 0.00
JUDD, C (CARL) - Most Brownlow Votes - Carlton
1.22 0.00
WATSON, J (ESS) - Most Brownlow Votes - Essendon
1.95 0.00

dont mind all of these, multi them up and it was 126000/1 i think... lol