Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[jimbob7085]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hi guys, just wondering whether anyone has made their own betting markets from bornwlow votes before? I am trying to make my own but am unsure how to accurately make them. For example my North Melbourne market has turned out as...

Player
Brownlow Votes
Brownlow Odds
Brent Harvey
11
1.42
Daniel Wells
10
1.67
Andrew Swallow
6
3.44
Lindsay Thomas
3
7.89
Jack Ziebell
1
25.67
Liam Anthony
1
25.67​

I used the total amount of votes/players votes multiplied by 1.2. This obviously can't be right as having a Harvey at odds of 1.42 and Wells at 1.67 makes no sense.

Does anyone know how to properly frame a brownlow betting market?

Cheers,
jimbob7085

EDIT:Sorry the formating didn't turn out to well...

 

[scooterselwood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hi guys, just wondering whether anyone has made their own betting markets from bornwlow votes before? I am trying to make my own but am unsure how to accurately make them. For example my North Melbourne market has turned out as...

Player
Brownlow Votes
Brownlow Odds
Brent Harvey
11
1.42
Daniel Wells
10
1.67
Andrew Swallow
6
3.44
Lindsay Thomas
3
7.89
Jack Ziebell
1
25.67
Liam Anthony
1
25.67​

I used the total amount of votes/players votes multiplied by 1.2. This obviously can't be right as having a Harvey at odds of 1.42 and Wells at 1.67 makes no sense.

Does anyone know how to properly frame a brownlow betting market?

Cheers,
jimbob7085

EDIT:Sorry the formating didn't turn out to well...

give every player a percentage chance, for example give Brent Harvey a 60% chance, Wells a 30% chance and Swallow a 5% chance

Most agencies use odds around 110%, so for Harvey divide 110 by 60, this gives you odds of $1.83. For Wells divide 110 by 30, which gives $3.67 and for Swallow divide 110 by 5, which gives $22.00.

Just make sure that when adding all players percentage that it all adds up to 100.

 

[Ghost of Grinter]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I definately think that opposition sides will be putting more work
into the likes of Hodge and Goddard.

The last 10 rounds will be quite interesting and players
that can handle heavy attention will be better off.

The attention Ablett gets compared to say Hodge, there is a massive
difference - and we will get to see whether the likes of Hodge, Goddard
can rise above and gut run through heavy tags.

Dane Swan and Ablett both seem to handle heavy attention,
as does Judd - who I think would be leading all comers atm,
Judd would have 3 certain best ons, to go with games where he
could possibly get 3..

Judd is forgotten atm, he would be winning and considering he missed
a few games at the start, thats a massive effort, youd think that if
he can play all games on the run home, he will probably win.
Captains get recognised, Judds a leader, he is flashy and is a known
vote getting - nearly an umpires love child, pretty safe bet on Judd,
very safe smashing Judd the place, money in the bank.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hodge has actually copped quite a bit of attention this season, with Mitchell being missing/not as dominate. Sydney tagged him and kept him quiet in the first half, but he exploded in the second half and just about single handedly won them that game.

In regards to Goddard he gets a good run as teams tend to tag one or two of Hayes/Montagna/NDS. You can't really win with the Saints, you tag one or two and the others just dominate. Also there wouldn't be many in the comp that could actually go with Goddard. He has the athleticism of a midfielder with he ability to take contested marks/spoils of a forward/defender.

 

[jimbob7085]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Cheers Scooterselwood, thanks for replying.

As for the Hodge/Gpddard issue I think Goddard will be almost untaggable as if he feels he is losing the battle with a tagger in the midfield, he can go forward and expose the taggers defensive side of his game and vice versa. Hodge can do pretty much the same and would also almost be untaggable. I have Hodge on 14 votes (in =3rd) and Goddard on 11 (=6th) so they are definitely not out of the race for the Brownlow.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

no votes for hodge tonight

 

[Ed_Gein]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

no votes for hodge tonight

Nope.

Franklin gets the 3 no doubt. But for the other 2, i'm finding it hard to decide between Watson, Winderlich, Osborne (i thought he was very good tonight) and perhaps Mitchell. Wouldn't even be surprised to see Muston snag the 1 vote either.

3 - Franklin
2 - Watson
1 - Osborne

??

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Personally I thought Melksham was outstanding tonight, definetely deserves a vote but might be unlucky due to the Hawks win.

3 - Buddy
2 - Watson
1 - Melksham

 

[jimbob7085]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3 - Buddy
2 - Watson
1 - One of Mitchell/Osbourne/Winderlich

 

[Brownlow King]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Personally I thought Melksham was outstanding tonight, definetely deserves a vote but might be unlucky due to the Hawks win.

3 - Buddy
2 - Watson
1 - Melksham

Franklin 3 for sure, Watson 1-2 and the other vote/s to be between Winderlich and Mitchell. Cyril on fire early then faded. He could win a Brownlow 1 day.

 

[FoleyIsGood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3-Buddy
2-Watson
1-Winderlich

Watson may not win the medal but for him to place I reckon theres a good chance.

By the way does anyone take into consideration which umpires umpire each game?

 

[Effes]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3-Buddy
2-Watson
1-Winderlich

Watson may not win the medal but for him to place I reckon theres a good chance.

By the way does anyone take into consideration which umpires umpire each game?

You'd really have to have a long record of the umpires and then determine how they give votes depending on whether it's one senior umpire with two rookies or two seniors etc.

 

[asanque]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3 Buddy
2 Watson
1 - Winderlich/Rioli/Mitchell

 

[maxlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

i was watching channel 7 gameday and they were saying barlow has come into 5.50...

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Thats good, means better odds on other players for us, unless u think Barlow could win, i just dont know how he will poll in his earlier games, makes him to risky imo. Happy to Lay Ablett/Barlow/Goddard personally.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Quartermain summed it up pretty well last night. The umpires will be noticing him now, but whether or not they did in the first 5-6 rounds is the real question. He is a bit of an uncertainty this year though, but you'd think he is going to have to be right up there with another clear 3 votes last night.

 

[Notorious_29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Another BOG to Harvey you would think.

3. Harvey
2. Schulz
1. Hansen

Pearce was very good as well, could steal the 1.

 

[banta]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Another BOG to Harvey you would think.

3. Harvey
2. Schulz
1. Hansen

Pearce was very good as well, could steal the 1.

Yep. Definite 3 to harvey. 2 and 1 votes to be shared by Shultz, Hansen and Pearce. Gave the 2 to Hansen.

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3. Harvey
2. Hansen
1. Schulz/Pearce/Swallow

 

[Ed_Gein]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3 - Giansiracusa
2 - Gilbee
1 - Cross

 

[Ghost of Grinter]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3 Votes - Boyd.
2 Votes - Gilbee.
1 Vote - Giansiracusa

 

[Ed_Gein]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3 Votes - Boyd.
2 Votes - Gilbee.
1 Vote - Giansiracusa

I thought Boyd got a lot of junk time ball from half way through the last when the game was done to be honest. I had my eye on him and thought he was fairly anonymous in the first 3 quarters. But still, you never know how the umpires will see it.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

same votes as me ed. i agree with boyd getting lots of junk time possessions, plus his possessions throughout the game seemed very ineffective. Giansiracusa stood out, should pick up the 3

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

3. Griffen
2. Gia
1. Gilbee

 

[CatFan79]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Anyone think of a reason why the Coleman markets are open on TAB but not Brownlow?