Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 1)

[bombersaway]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

just on the swan article in the hun, it gave him 3 votes in the game on friday night and there's no way he'll get 3...may be lucky to get 1 vote.

my tip forget champion data,
theres no way swan will be anywhere near 32 votes,
while i still think he can win its no where near a given,

champion data and the hun always spruke(not sure if thats spelled correct) how they picked bartell had cooney top 3 and picked gaj, big deal everyone picked ablett some of us picked cooney and same with bartel,

you never hear how far off they have been with so many players like montagna, swan last year for example

its a computer system that has plenty of flaws that are not taken into account just like the mtrs gained crap, excellent for coaches/match day punters no good for brownlow votes,

everyone running your own tally's are doing a much better job than the bookies and these flogs,

keep up the good work.

 

[fredd]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yeh I want to know what guys like BK and others who have been doing this for a while do

I was thinking using some anchors coupled with some value players:

Thompson / Watson / (Value)
Thompson / Goodes / (Value)
Watson / Goodes / (Value)

^ and so on...

Only problem with this is that if one of Watson, Thompson, or Goodes dont win you have lost 2/3 of bets already.. and if 2 lose you lose everything... so bit risky, but can be profitable..

Thoughts??

I definitely think that is a better / less risky way than using all of your 'anchors' in every bet.

My strategy has always been too work out how good the value is for each option and use them in a % of my bets relative too how good i think the value is. I also vary the number of legs and potential payout quite a bit too safegaurd against having a big loss, without giving up the potential of nailing a huge collect. It is a bit complicated, there isnt really an exact formula too it, the trick is too put a lot of effort into tracking who you have placed bets on already, who they have been multi'd with and how many bets they are included in.

The reason for me betting like this instead of the popular 'anchors' theory is that there will never be one single result that will lead too all of my bets losing. It does however allow for the near certainties (Watson, Goodes, Thompson ect) too be used in more bets than the less likely, options(Pendlebury, LeCras ect). If there is something at longer odds that i think is really likely(something like the Hayes situation last year) then i have the flexibility too use that in a lot more bets than everything else at similar odds.

 

[ShamWow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Got this email back from Luxbet, seems we are getting conflicting stories....

Dear Sir

Thank you for your enquiry.

I've been advised that the Brownlow Most Team Votes market will be up around the end of August, closer to when the event starts.

Unfortunately, you will not be able to include these in a multi bet.

I hope this answers your query.

Please let us know if you have any further questions.

Kind Regards,


Gary
CUSTOMER SERVICE

GPO Box 863
Darwin NT 0801

T 1300 589 238
F 08 8941 9689
W www.luxbet.com

 

[ShamWow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

And this one from Centrebet which we already knew......

Dear Sir
Thank you for your email.

Unfortunately this year the bookmakers are only setting it up for single
markets only, this is bookomkaers discretion.

If you have any queries please do not hesitate to contact us.

Kind regards,

Peter
Centrebet Supervisor

Contact Details:

PO Box 1462
Alice Springs NT 0871
Australia

Tel + 61 8 8955 5800
Fax + 61 8 8955 5750
Email: complaints@centrebet.com

 

[ShamWow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

At this stage i can tell you guys that TAB Sportsbet and also www.sportsbet.com.au will definately be accepting multi's on Most team Votes but they will not open untill the end of the year....

Now get on with talking about Brownlow Votes and not who will be accepting bets. To all those who asked the questions and refuse to go back and read previous posts, HERE YOU GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, i have Swan 24, Judd 23, Selwood 20, Hayes 20, Ablett 19, Hodge 19, Goddard 18, Pendlebury 18....

Cheers

 

[bisazc887]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Yeah let them think people are going to put 10 grand at 1.07 on singles

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

At this stage i can tell you guys that TAB Sportsbet and also www.sportsbet.com.au will definately be accepting multi's on Most team Votes but they will not open untill the end of the year....

Now get on with talking about Brownlow Votes and not who will be accepting bets. To all those who asked the questions and refuse to go back and read previous posts, HERE YOU GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BTW, i have Swan 24, Judd 23, Selwood 20, Hayes 20, Ablett 19, Hodge 19, Goddard 18, Pendlebury 18....

Cheers

Your wrong, sportsbet 100% isnt allowing multis. I just contacted them about 5 hours ago.

 

[ShamWow]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Here is my post from June when i spoke to them, looks like they have changed there tune then. Oh well, TAB it is guys.....


Re: Brownlow Medal 2010
Here you go guys, thought tis would interest MANY!!!!!!

ChrisB: Welcome to Sportsbet.com.au how can I help you today?
M: when are you releasing most team votes for Brownlow and leader for half way mark
ChrisB: It will be by the end of the week
M: will you be able to multi most team votes?
ChrisB: Yes you should be able to
M: and Most team votes will be up by end of week you reckon?
M: hello? Will the Most Team Votes for Brownlow medal be up by the end of the week
ChrisB: I cant confirm that bet option at the moment. Can you contact sportsbet tommorrow
Michael: are you able to get them to email in regards to this bet option please and whether it can be multi'd. Thanks
ChrisB: Im finding out now. just hold 1 min
ChrisB: they isnt going to be a bet option for brownlow leaders for half way but there will be team learders for the end result
Michael: cool. and that can be multi'd and will be up by end of week? correct?
ChrisB: Yes they can be multied but it wont be up untill later on in the year
Michael: thanks

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Earlier in the thread someone said Sportsbet will allow them to be multied however a few people said they wouldnt allow it so thought id go and check myself:

Sportsbet:

danielleb: Hello. How can I help you today?
Me: hi, i was jut wondering when/if you are realeasing brownlow team votes? and if you will allow them to be multied?
danielleb: brownlow betting is singles only
Me: do you know when the singles will be open?
danielleb: one moment, i'm just finding out
danielleb: most bookies open them up the week b4 the brownlow
Me: ok thank you for that


FFS

Yeah depends who you speak to etc, but a few others have said their not as well and thats what they said when i spoke to them.
3-4 people have said Luxbet is doing them i know you said their not but sometimes you just get some flakey dude with NFI

 

[kingross29]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Can you elaborate on your "box multi's"?

Box Multi is a multi where you insure your multi so if you miss one leg you still win.

 

[rowie343]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Can we all just talk brownlow and worry about the markets they put up later. It is all beyond our control so no point talking any of it up at this stage. Just be cool and low profile. Pretty dumb bombarding these bookies with the same questions from various people dont u think?

 

[Joelskies317]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Here's my countdown for the top ten this year

1st place-Dane Swan(coll)- 27 votes
2nd place-Chris Judd(carl)- 23 votes
3rd placeGary Ablett(Geel)- 22 votes
=Luke Hodge(Haw)- 22 votes
5th place-Micheal Barlow(Freo)- 19 votes
6th place-Brandan Goddard(Stk)- 18 votes
=Scott Pendulbury(Coll)- 18 votes
8th place-Joel selwwod(Geel)- 17 votes
9th place-Adam Goodes(Syd)- 16 votes
=Lenny Hayes(Stk)- 16 votes

And for Most Team Votes here are a list of every teams players who I think are winning

Adelaide- Goodwin
Brisbane- Brown and black
Carlton-Judd
Collingwood-Swan
Essendon-Watson
Fremantle-Barlow
Geelong- Ablett
Hawthorn-Hodge
Melbourne-Sylvia
Kangaroos-Harvey
Power-Cornes
Richmond-Riewoldt
Saints-Goddard
Swans-Goodes
West Coast-Priddis
Bulldogs- Cooney

I will not be betting on all of those players but i do have a couple in mind...............any thoughts on what i have just said guys????

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Here's my countdown for the top ten this year

1st place-Dane Swan(coll)- 27 votes
2nd place-Chris Judd(carl)- 23 votes
3rd placeGary Ablett(Geel)- 22 votes
=Luke Hodge(Haw)- 22 votes
5th place-Micheal Barlow(Freo)- 19 votes
6th place-Brandan Goddard(Stk)- 18 votes
=Scott Pendulbury(Coll)- 18 votes
8th place-Joel selwwod(Geel)- 17 votes
9th place-Adam Goodes(Syd)- 16 votes
=Lenny Hayes(Stk)- 16 votes

And for Most Team Votes here are a list of every teams players who I think are winning

Adelaide- Goodwin
Brisbane- Brown and black
Carlton-Judd
Collingwood-Swan
Essendon-Watson
Fremantle-Barlow
Geelong- Ablett
Hawthorn-Hodge
Melbourne-Sylvia
Kangaroos-Harvey
Power-Cornes
Richmond-Riewoldt
Saints-Goddard
Swans-Goodes
West Coast-Priddis
Bulldogs- Cooney

I will not be betting on all of those players but i do have a couple in mind...............any thoughts on what i have just said guys????

Looks like you copied phantom bownlow. All of your team leaders are the same as theirs, even down to Black and Brown being equal.. Either way, your way off imo.
Starting to get a vibe people are just copying other peoples leaderboards etc :rollseyes:

 

[tommyboy101]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

lenny hayes out with a back. crap.

 

[sethlad]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hayes out for the Saints....nasty

seth

 

[George Washington]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Lenny Hayes out!

Would have thought he woulda needed at least 1 more BOG to stand any chance.

 

[stretcharmstrong]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Hayes getting a rest this week ('back'), could just about rule him out if he doesn't get a certain 3 in round 22 imo.

EDIT: Damn you mofos are quick!

 

[The_Doctor]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Can we all just talk brownlow and worry about the markets they put up later. It is all beyond our control so no point talking any of it up at this stage. Just be cool and low profile. Pretty dumb bombarding these bookies with the same questions from various people dont u think?

I like hearing whether bookmakers are going to allow multis on team votes and am glad people have posted about it. Theres no point in me getting too involved if i cant multi them so its good to hear whats going on and where i can do it.

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I just put money on hayes today bah if selwood is in this week i may consider putting some money on him. I also put money on judd today as well.

 

[Joelskies317]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Looks like you copied phantom bownlow. All of your team leaders are the same as theirs, even down to Black and Brown being equal.. Either way, your way off imo.
Starting to get a vibe people are just copying other peoples leaderboards etc :rollseyes:

how dare you accuse me of just copying other information. I have done the hard yards to get to where i am and i am nicer enough to share it here but all i get in return is you telling me that im plagiarising.........very dissapointed!!

 

[Gift]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Bookies probably too scared of BKs bets so they paid off Hayes to fake a back injury lol

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

how dare you accuse me of just copying other information. I have done the hard yards to get to where i am and i am nicer enough to share it here but all i get in return is you telling me that im plagiarising.........very dissapointed!!

Didnt accuse u i said "looks like"
facts:You joined today, have 2 posts, and the exact same team leader board as phantom brownlow? even down to black and brown tied.

 

[FoleyIsGood]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

I just put money on hayes today bah if selwood is in this week i may consider putting some money on him. I also put money on judd today as well.

Unlucky with Hayes, I think he really needed to poll in both the 2 matches left to be a chance. Selwoods been named but apparently has been struggling with the flu this week so maybe a possiblity of been a late withdrawal?

 

[AjsGuns]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Unlucky with Hayes, I think he really needed to poll in both the 2 matches left to be a chance. Selwoods been named but apparently has been struggling with the flu this week so maybe a possiblity of been a late withdrawal?

Agreed not to happy since 35% of my money on the brownlow winner outright was on Hayes, prob rested till finals as well

 

[premiers06]

Re: Brownlow Medal 2010

Unlucky with Hayes, I think he really needed to poll in both the 2 matches left to be a chance. Selwoods been named but apparently has been struggling with the flu this week so maybe a possiblity of been a late withdrawal?

Yeah I was banking him doing well in the last 2 games. Will wait and see with selwood with the flu so i may wait until next week to place a bet on. Also was thinking about pendles but considering if the pies win this week he may be rested next week.

Heres hoping Judd wins now