Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[Daics35Marvel]

I've been thinking about how everyone appears willing to write off Ablett based on past winners polling poorly, despite him being up there in all your leader boards. What worries me is that a lot of his vote getting games, like yesterday by all accounts and his few games at the start of the year, he has been a clear BOG. I would think that it would be in the 1 & 2 vote games, where the votes were hard to split, that the umpires may mark him down a few notches. But have there been many of those or have the games where he is likely to poll been pretty decisive BOGs?

 

[Saint KFC]

What date is the actual brownlow? Can't find it online anywhere.

 

[Modra93]

monday before the grandfinal... so the 20th

 

[AjsGuns]

Exactly. From what I've read & in part seen, Sydney is a 2 horse race. Now, the beauty of Jack's BOG is it puts him in real contention to take out Goodes & win Sydney- he'll be paying similar to what Hayes did last year, $9-10, maybe even more (was 15-1 with ACTAB sports bet before the game). The added beauty is that with any luck Goodes' odds will go up slightly as well since he clearly missed the votes. Just cover Jack + Goodes in your multi's & you're laughing barring a pretty big upset from somone like O'Keefe.

ROK has no chance Bolton a minute chance.

Hey Saint KFC long time no see, The Brownlow is the 20th of September.

 

[ackers29]

I currently have Swallow 4 or so votes ahead of Harvey leading into tomorrow's game. I'll generally be steering clear of North's team votes, and only include them in a few to capitalise on Swallow's juicy odds. Either way it's a line ball call between Swallow and Harvey.

In regards to Essendon, personally I see Watson as the safest lock behind Judd. Is expected to win their team votes quite comfortably, with very little competition.

I would tread very carefully with Goodes as I have a feeling it will be VERY close between him and Jack - especially given his BOG performance tonight. He is in no way a lock anymore IMO, and I will only be adding Sydney into a small handful of multis using Jack/Goodes variants to make the most of Jack's odds and provide cover in case Jack causes an upset.

I'm still not convinced when it comes to Swan, and as many were burnt by including him in their multis last year, i'd highly suggest to be very weary of him given his underwhelming polling performance. Possibly look at Pendlebury also to add value to a few of your multis in case he gets up, but in no way would I be using Swan as an anchor.

All the best.

I really cannot see that Watson is a safe lock?

He has had 3 games that he may poll in when Essendon won
13 kicks 17 handballs
12 kicks 26 handballs
13 kicks 15 hanballs

Compared to Stanton 4 games when Essendon won
25 kicks 11 handballs
17 kicks 15 handballs
17 kicks 13 handballs
16 kicks 11 handballs

So i cannot lock him?

 

[mattybomb22]

3. Franklin
2. Mitchell
1. Rioli/Swan

Umpires might include a Pie because of the margin but I think the three Hawks should get the votes.

Yes , have just watched replay and wrote down votes I would of given , then looked on here and same as Aussie Gun

 

[Effes]

Any DT'er knows where Stanton gets a lot of his possessions - deep in the back pocket on the switch and/or kickout.

Watson extracts it and weaves in/out of traffic which catches the umpires eye. Stanton's polling history is shite.

Winderlich is more likely to get votes in any year than the cheap stat getter Stanton.

Ablett breakdown
Rd 1 - 2
3 - 1
4 - 3
5 - 2
7 - 3
9 - Good game
10 - 3
11 - Good game
13 - Good game
14 - Good game
15 - Good game
17 - 2
18 - 2
19 - Good game
20 - 3
21 - Good game
22 - 3

Thing is last year he didn't have to have clear BOG's to get the 3, this year he'll have to as the umpires will have much higher standards. Not sure he has had enough clear standout BOG games to win it.

 

[Jake_14]

Although this round has scared me a little i also have found its going to add a little risk for alot of value - The locks Watson/Thompson/JVolt/Brown/Judd will be mixed around in 80% of multis and then the options like goodes/jack - Harvey/swallow - Swan/Pendles - Hayes/Goddard.. really hoping jack has done enough to pip goodes ( Its the value ive been waiting for) Also awaitng the result of port game, Cassisi to beat rodan im hoping..

 

[bisazc887]

Hodge will be so short that I won't be touching him at all. He's almost 99% sure to win their votes but he doesn't poll as well as he should usually so I don't think it's worth the risk.

I think Thompson is definitely a lock after today, as well.

Judd, Thompson and Watson will be in 70-75% of my multi's. I just wish there was 1-2 others I could be as confident about.

Judd, Watson and Jack Riewoldt for me, not sure of Thomson v Douglas or Hodge who should win but agree at that price not worth the risk and have Franklin as Certain 3 yesterday,Certain 3 against Bombers when he was kicking them from anywhere including those 2 great ones from the boundry, and hes the sort that could get atleast another couple of 3's in games hes dominated.

 

[rowie343]

Probably need to pay some serious attention to ablett now:

Rd 1 - 1
Rd 3 - 2
Rd 4 - 3
Rd 5 - 2
Rd 7 - 3
Rd 10 - 1
Rd 17 - 3
Rd 18 - 2
Rd 20 - 3
Rd 21 - 2
Rd 22 - 3

Total: 25

 

[twarby]

I really cannot see that Watson is a safe lock?

He has had 3 games that he may poll in when Essendon won
13 kicks 17 handballs
12 kicks 26 handballs
13 kicks 15 hanballs

Compared to Stanton 4 games when Essendon won
25 kicks 11 handballs
17 kicks 15 handballs
17 kicks 13 handballs
16 kicks 11 handballs

So i cannot lock him?

without looking at those individual games, you clearly havnt watched any essendon games
dont comment on some stats you see from footywire

 

[mattbombers]

Hey guys here is my leaderboard after rd 22, I think we all have pretty similar results. The numbers is brackets are games the player didn't get votes in but are a chance to poll. My tip is that Swan will win it. I think the umpires will feel like idiots after seeing the amount of votes they gave him last year and may overcompensate this year, which if the case, would see him blowing them out of the water. Though i predict he'll get it by 2-3 votes.

Swan 24 (2)
Hodge 23 (2)
Ablett 23 (5)
Judd 22 (0)
Selwood 20 (4)
Thompson 18 (1)
Barlow 17 (0)
Montagna 17 (3)
Pendlebury 17 (7)

 

[maxlad]

really hope rodan doesnt have a good game today... then i wont know what to do!

 

[Athomas]

really hope rodan doesnt have a good game today... then i wont know what to do!

150th, should be huge!

 

[maxlad]

oh and harvey get a BOG aswell

 

[s1bbald]

Don't worry. Jacky will kick a huge bag for BOG honours and Boak will be the only Port player to play well and feature in the votes.

I actually thought you meant Jarrhan there. My head musn't be in Brownlow Medal form today. What the shit is wrong!?

 

[Effes]

Boak having a picnic so far.

 

[750mlPump]

Boak having a picnic so far.

No chance for the 3 though. Brogan's going mental

 

[scooterselwood]

im very interested in applying all the locks with all combinations of a few clubs with 2 horse races for most votes.

Locks
Adel - Thompson
Bris - Brown
Carl - Judd
Ess - Watson
Rich - Jvolt

2 Horse races
Coll - Swan/Pendlebury
Geel - Ablett/Selwood
North - Harvey/Swallow
Sydney - Goodes/Jack

that would give 16 combinations. What is the minimum amount you can put on one multi?

 

[Athomas]

im very interested in applying all the locks with all combinations of a few clubs with 2 horse races for most votes.

Locks
Adel - Thompson
Bris - Brown
Carl - Judd
Ess - Watson
Rich - Jvolt

2 Horse races
Coll - Swan/Pendlebury
Geel - Ablett/Selwood
North - Harvey/Swallow
Sydney - Goodes/Jack

that would give 16 combinations. What is the minimum amount you can put on one multi?

$1

Pretty safe method imo.

 

[WeetBixKid]

im very interested in applying all the locks with all combinations of a few clubs with 2 horse races for most votes.

Locks
Adel - Thompson
Bris - Brown
Carl - Judd
Ess - Watson
Rich - Jvolt

2 Horse races
Coll - Swan/Pendlebury
Geel - Ablett/Selwood
North - Harvey/Swallow
Sydney - Goodes/Jack

that would give 16 combinations. What is the minimum amount you can put on one multi?

That's how I'll be betting, except I'm going to use 32 combinations by mixing up the 4 "locks"

i.e Thompson + Brown then Sydney (x2 players), Melb (x2), Port (x2) [3], Richmond (x2) = 16 combinations

Watson + Riewodlt + Sydney (x2), Melb (x2), Port (x2) [3], Brisbane or Adelaide (x2) = 16 combinations.

The [3] in port is because it could be a 3 man race with each paying between 4 - 7 dollars provided you're happy to risk Kornes, which I may or may not do depending on what BK thinks. But if Cassisi/Boak/Rodan take it out, they'll really flesh out my multi's. I will use one of those players in all multi's, then mix up the other 2- putting one in the Thompson + Brown groups of bets, & one in the Watson + Riewoldt bets.

Will then create about another 15 combinations for extra cover in case a lock fails in both groups of 16 bets, or if I fail to cover the winner of Melb + Syd + Port

 

[Effes]

That's how I'll be betting, except I'm going to use 32 combinations by mixing up the 4 "locks"

i.e Thompson + Brown then Sydney (x2 players), Melb (x2), Port (x2) [3], Richmond (x2) = 16 combinations

Watson + Riewodlt + Sydney (x2), Melb (x2), Port (x2) [3], Brisbane or Adelaide (x2) = 16 combinations.

The [3] in port is because it's a 3 man race &, depending on BK's thoughts on Kornes I'll be using the 4-7 - 1 odds of Cassisi, Boak & Rodan to really flesh out my odds- will use one of those players in all multi's, then mix up the other 2- putting one in the Thompson + Brown bets, & one in the Watson + Riewoldt bets.

Will then create about another 15 combinations for extra cover in case a lock fails in both groups of 16 bets, or if I fail to cover the winner of Melb + Syd + Port

Who are the three from Port you're considering?

 

[Notorious_29]

Surely it's a bit risky to chuck JVolt and Brown in every single multi. Personally I don't see either as certainties. Brown's a bit safer than Riewoldt.

 

[WeetBixKid]

Probably Boak, Cassisi & Rodan- but I haven't done a count this year & these are only preliminary musings, just trying to share my betting style if it helps anyone. If Kornes or someone else is a real threat I might turf Port altogether, but you're always going to need a little luck anyway.

 

[WeetBixKid]

Surely it's a bit risky to chuck JVolt and Brown in every single multi. Personally I don't see either as certainties. Brown's a bit safer than Riewoldt.

Not in every multi. In the 16 where they're anchors, yes. But in the other group with different anchors they'll be used 8 times, covered by another player for the other 8 times. Brown by Black or Rischitelli, still deciding, & Riewoldt by who I'm not sure of yet. Instead of using him, I might end up using Watson as both an anchor, & then use him 8 times in the other "group" & cover him for the other 8 with his nearest rival.

It is risky, but I like to take the risk for the chance to win relatively big & I think there's reasonable cover there.