Brownlow Medal 2010 (Part 2)

[twarby]

After looking at your and twarby's counts I'm feeling quite good about our collective thoughts.

Main differences between mine and others are: 2-3 votes to Rodan, 5-6 votes to Pavlich and Deledio/JVolt. I'm happy to think Rodan/Pav aren't as high as I may have them but I'm a bit worried about Jack Volt. I was pretty confident on him.

Great count AG/Twarby/Jimbob/Notorious.

Someone please post a count with Deledio behind Jack but!

id love to see your Pav breakdown

i think we can agree bulldogs is a no go zone, even though lots have Boyd high like me, the majority have the top 4 all within a few of each other.

 

[jimbob7085]

Can anyone remember how many individual players tab put into each team votes group last year before throwing in the "players not quoted" option? This could be a good option for the Bulldogs as there are so many players so close to eachother that someone could bob up and pip the others at the post unexpectedly.

 

[Effes]

Can anyone remember how many individual players tab put into each team votes group last year before throwing in the "players not quoted" option? This could be a good option for the Bulldogs as there are so many players so close to eachother that someone could bob up and pip the others at the post unexpectedly.

Around 6 players per team including any other player.

 

[Athomas]

Really interested in R3 - Melbourne vs Adelaide Breakdowns.

 

[mike262]

Really interested in R3 - Melbourne vs Adelaide Breakdowns.

3-green
2-Mcdonald
1-Burton

is what i have

 

[AjsGuns]

Really interested in R3 - Melbourne vs Adelaide Breakdowns.

3. Mcdonald
2. Frawley
1. Green

 

[twarby]

Mcdonald
Frawley
Vince

 

[Athomas]

3-green
2-Mcdonald
1-Burton

is what i have

3. Mcdonald
2. Frawley
1. Green

Mcdonald
Frawley
Vince

Thanks guys.

I went
3. Green
2. Mcdonald
1. Goodwin

This is the main match I have doubts on Green, ahhh!

 

[Effes]

Thanks guys.

I went
3. Green
2. Mcdonald
1. Goodwin

This is the main match I have doubts on Green, ahhh!

That is exactly what I had Athomas.

 

[Brownlow King]

I've been tallying up my club leaderboards and def think that there are some no go zones.
Melb - way too tight b/w Sylvia, Green, Moloney, Davey
Port - tight between Boak ( I'm too worried to rely on him polling well ), Rodan, Cassissi
WC - tight between Lecras and Priddis ( I'm worried about how he will poll )
Dogs - Boyd, Cooney, Cross all close
Haw - Hodge too short and Cyril, Buddy some rough hope
Carl - Judd too short and no value
Coll - Swan or Pendlebury a close call
I'm also concerned to rely on J Volt as risky to rely on a key forward. i do think he wins Richmond's though.

I know that some of you like it when there are only 2 chances at a club. I query why ? At Coll for example why take $1.35 Swan and $3 or so Pendlebury as well ? Why not just leave the club out ?

 

[Athomas]

I think it's only if the clubs are both $2+

I wouldn't touch Swan/Pendles, Ablett/Selwood for example, but Goodes/Jack or Green/Sylvia (example) where both are $2+.

I agree 100% with Port,WCE,Dogs,Haw,Carl,Coll. I think 2 horse race between Melb but it could be closer.

 

[twarby]

I think it's only if the clubs are both $2+

I wouldn't touch Swan/Pendles, Ablett/Selwood for example, but Goodes/Jack or Green/Sylvia (example) where both are $2+.

I agree 100% with Port,WCE,Dogs,Haw,Carl,Coll. I think 2 horse race between Melb but it could be closer.

Melbournes winner comes down to Sylvia getting the votes he deserves in those big games he has then i think he has it sewn up. if he struggles the winner for melbourne will have around 7ish which has potential for 3 -4 way ties.
that said i think sylvia will win it, hes someone i have researched a bit due to dream team, he had his big games last year in melbourne losses (most of their games were lol), he managed 2 and 3 in 2 losses last year.. he has stood out in 3-4 wins this year and im quite confident in him reaching 10+.
Melbourne is definetely a team im confident in betting on

 

[foxy_dal]

My final leaderboard:
Ablett 22
Selwood 22
Judd 22
Hodge 21
Swan 20
Pendlebury 19

Adel: Thompson 14, Douglas 9, Goodwin/Vince 7
Bris: Brown 14, Black 7, Brennan 7
Carl: Judd 22, Murphy 10, Gibbs/Simpson 6
Coll: Pendlebury/Swan 19, Didak 13
Ess: Watson 13, Stanton 7, Winderlich 5
Fre: Sandilands 15, Barlow 14, Mundy 10
Gee: Ablett/Selwood 22, Chapman 15
Haw: Hodge 21, Mitchell 11, Franklin 9
Kan: Harvey 15, Swallow 12, Wells/Rawlings 7
Melb: Green 12, Sylvia 10, McDonald 7
Port: Boak 11, Kornes/Rodan 8
Rich: Riewoldt 10, Deledio 7, Newman 5
St. K: Hayes/Dal Santo 16, Goddard 15
Syd: Goodes/Jack 13, Malceski 10
WC: Priddis 7, Le Cras 5
WB: Boyd/Cooney 12, Giansiracusa 11

 

[GoodesStuff]

I've been tallying up my club leaderboards and def think that there are some no go zones.
Melb - way too tight b/w Sylvia, Green, Moloney, Davey
Port - tight between Boak ( I'm too worried to rely on him polling well ), Rodan, Cassissi
WC - tight between Lecras and Priddis ( I'm worried about how he will poll )
Dogs - Boyd, Cooney, Cross all close
Haw - Hodge too short and Cyril, Buddy some rough hope
Carl - Judd too short and no value
Coll - Swan or Pendlebury a close call
I'm also concerned to rely on J Volt as risky to rely on a key forward. i do think he wins Richmond's though.

I know that some of you like it when there are only 2 chances at a club. I query why ? At Coll for example why take $1.35 Swan and $3 or so Pendlebury as well ? Why not just leave the club out ?

Hmm that leaves players like Watson, Thompson, Brown , Riewoldt , Goodes ... all pretty short and hard to work with for multis I would have thought.

 

[Effes]

Hmm that leaves players like Watson, Thompson, Brown , Riewoldt , Goodes ... all pretty short and hard to work with for multis I would have thought.

All the more reason to wait for H2Hs and Groups

 

[s1bbald]

I'm guessing the general thought is that the value in Winner/Premiership is now gone also?

 

[Athomas]

My final leaderboard:
Ablett 22
Selwood 22
Judd 22
Hodge 21
Swan 20
Pendlebury 19

Adel: Thompson 14, Douglas 9, Goodwin/Vince 7
Bris: Brown 14, Black 7, Brennan 7
Carl: Judd 22, Murphy 10, Gibbs/Simpson 6
Coll: Pendlebury/Swan 19, Didak 13
Ess: Watson 13, Stanton 7, Winderlich 5
Fre: Sandilands 15, Barlow 14, Mundy 10
Gee: Ablett/Selwood 22, Chapman 15
Haw: Hodge 21, Mitchell 11, Franklin 9
Kan: Harvey 15, Swallow 12, Wells/Rawlings 7
Melb: Green 12, Sylvia 10, McDonald 7
Port: Boak 11, Kornes/Rodan 8
Rich: Riewoldt 10, Deledio 7, Newman 5
St. K: Hayes/Dal Santo 16, Goddard 15
Syd: Goodes/Jack 13, Malceski 10
WC: Priddis 7, Le Cras 5
WB: Boyd/Cooney 12, Giansiracusa 11

If your count happens all my favoured options would win! Riewoldt, Boak, NDS, Green! *Fingers Crossed*

 

[Brownlow King]

Hmm that leaves players like Watson, Thompson, Brown , Riewoldt , Goodes ... all pretty short and hard to work with for multis I would have thought.

Yeah I'm doing a spreadsheet now and the odds look really low. I'll give the team votes a crack but am hopeful that the groups are the go.

 

[Mudeo]

Hmm that leaves players like Watson, Thompson, Brown , Riewoldt , Goodes ... all pretty short and hard to work with for multis I would have thought.

Yeah agreed, BK i think that having judd in there wouldn;t be as bad as you think. A monty to win Carltons votes and will just add that little bit extra to your mutlis, it will be one decision that wont hurt you.

 

[Brownlow King]

I'm guessing the general thought is that the value in Winner/Premiership is now gone also?

Yep Swan and Ablett will be too short. I haven't got a cent on Gazza and am nervous re the winner now. I do think that any one of 7 players can win though, esp if it's a low count which it cld be if Gazza and Swan don't poll as expected.

 

[Brownlow King]

Yeah agreed, BK i think that having judd in there wouldn;t be as bad as you think. A monty to win Carltons votes and will just add that little bit extra to your mutlis, it will be one decision that wont hurt you.

Yeah but at $1.10 or less it simply aint worth it. Risk vs Reward. Swan and Mitchell last year are examples as they were both long odds on and lost / tied. Riewoldt was $1.14 in 2009 when hayes knocked him off as well.
Anyone under $1.30 is better off left alone IMO.

 

[sgnl00]

Might make a spreadsheet of team totals using everyones data here, get a nice pool and average it out... If anyone is interested.

 

[GoodesStuff]

Yeah but at $1.10 or less it simply aint worth it. Risk vs Reward. Swan and Mitchell last year are examples as they were both long odds on and lost / tied. Riewoldt was $1.14 in 2009 when hayes knocked him off as well.
Anyone under $1.30 is better off left alone IMO.

Hodge and Priddis are two players <$1.10 who could be knocked off imo. Judd will not be. He will do what Goodes did last year at short odds, and just win.

 

[Athomas]

Might make a spreadsheet of team totals using everyones data here, get a nice pool and average it out... If anyone is interested.

Quite a good idea, try to take out the counts that are obviously far off, but I think every count posted since the conslusion of Round 22 has been relatively good.

 

[tranquilli lace]

Just on Port, Davenport will surely get the 3 votes in Round 2. 4 goals in the last quarter, single handed won the game for them. Boak in the mix for 2 & 1.

Loving the Kieran Jack value, could do some wonderful things to our multis this year should he get up.